As DKE's most active New Jerseyan, I have put it upon myself to draw up the 2011 legislative district map and analyze 2011 races. Using the Apportionment Commission's official map, I drew up my own copy of the map in Dave's Redistricting App in order to know their leans. I shall go district by district, list their partisan lean (Avg D v. R performance), list the State Senate election results (and in some cases the Assembly results), and provide analysis on the races here. Some of the analysis will be from my observations, others will be derived from PolitickerNJ and similar sources.
More below the fold.
Note: New Jersey is composed of 40 legislative districts. Each district elects two Assemblymen and one Senator. Democrats currently hold 24 seats in the Senate and 48 seats in the General Assembly.
A bit of prologue. Republicans lost the legislative redistricting battle back in April, so the possibility of winning a majority went from distant to remote. However, since any gains from Republicans in a mid-term of a Republican administration would be spun as a success, they spent a lot on flipping Senate seats in LD-2 (incumbent Jim Whelan), LD-14 (incumbent Linda Greenstein), and LD-38 (incumbent Bob Gordon). They targeted elsewhere, of course, but those three spots where their prime targets. Most of the Republican fundraising and spending was through their party committees while Democrats concentrated on individual campaign fundraising. All in all, Democrats outraised and outspent Republicans. In the last week of the campaigns, the state Republican party leaked reports tamping down expectations, painting the prospect of a no net-gain or loss election as a win. The final results saw Democrats gaining a seat in the General Assembly, and not losing or gaining anything in the Senate.
NJ Legislative Districts for the 2010's
Let's start where I did most of my growing up: South Jersey.
LD-1 (blue): Senator Jeff Van Drew (D), Assemblymen Albano (D) and Milam (D)
50.7%D/49.3%R
2011 Results: 54% Van Drew - 46% DeWeese (R)
28% Albano, 25% Milam, 24% Fiocchi (R), 23% Walters (R)
This district is the least Democratic district represented by any Democrats. It's also the only district held by Democrats where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats (due to the presence Cape May County). Republicans would have been much better suited making this their top target as they could have taken down Van Drew (a possible candidate for NJ's 2nd Congressional District) and both Democratic Assemblymen, who each won by a narrower than expected margin. Assemblyman Milam won by less than 1000 votes. The NJ GOP likely was cold to the idea of strongly targeting this race due to polls like these. Fortunately for Dems, they focused the brunt of their efforts on LD-2 instead. Downballot, Dems did fair in this region. They lost the majority on the Cumberland County Board of Freeholders, but it was to a labor-backed Republican.
LD-2 (green): Senator Jim Whelan (D), two Republican Assemblymen
57.2%D/42.8%R
2011 Results: 54% Whelan - 46% Pollistina (R)
The Senate race here was top dollar for both the NJ GOP and Democratic money man/dirty dealer George Norcross III. Republicans had a top recruit in Assemblyman Vince Pollistina of Egg Harbor Township in this Atlantic County district. It was an intense race, tied up in polls, and THE most expensive NJ race. I saw ads for this way over in Medford (which is in Burlington County). In a single commercial break, there was one ad against Whelan and then one against Pollistina. The ad against Whelan was something to do with taxes, the one against Pollistina focused on his votes against senior care. In the end, the result margins were not as tight as was expected. Democrats sure were lucky that Mayor Lorenzo Langford of Atlantic City got pushed out of his run for this race as an Indie. I still do not understand Langford's burning hatred of Whelan. One does not lightly say about a fellow Democrat: "Disrespect, betrayal and treason cannot be tolerated and must be punished."
Democrats downballot in Atlantic County did not get any pull from Jim Whelan. Democrats held onto the County Clerk position, but Republicans held on to their county positions as well.
LD-3 (dark magenta): Senate President Steve Sweeney (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
54.8%D/45.2%R
2011 Results: 55% Sweeney - 45% Mulligan (R)
28% Burzichelli (D), 27% Riley (D), 23% Villare (R), 23% DiCicco (R)
Senator Steve Sweeney won reelection with little problem. He may have slightly underperformed due to his pushing pension reform, something that cost his a union endorsement this time around. The real race was for the Assembly, where Republican Assemblyman Domenick DiCicco hoped to be able to stay on. He was the only Republican gain in 2009 (he won an open Assembly seat in LD-4), but redistricting moved him out of LD-4 and into LD-3. Unfortunately for him, he not only lost, but came in fourth.
Salem County was one of the few counties where Democrats downballot did relatively poorly. Democrats lost the Salem County Board of Freeholders to a bully and a crook (look it up, I'm not kidding or exaggerating).
LD-4 (red): Senator Fred Madden (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
59.1%D/40.9%R
2011 Results: 62% Madden - 38% D'Orazio (R)
Not much to say here. Republican Assemblyman DiCicco was drawn out of this district and Democrats easily picked up his seat.
LD-5 (gold): Senator Donald Norcross (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
66.9%D/33.1%R
2011 Results: 56% Norcross - 44% Walker (R)
Now here's a strong case of underperformance. Donald Norcross is George Norcross' brother and was part of a crazy case of musical chairs early last year. He had just been elected to the Assembly in 2009, but Senator Dana Redd resigning in January 2010 to be Mayor of Camden ended up with him being appointed to the Senate. Running for a full term, he won by a pitiful margin, especially considering that Camden is in this district.
LD-6 (teal): Senator Jim Beach (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
61.3%D/38.7%R
2011 Results: 62% Beach - 38% Mitsch (R)
This race was uneventful, but I know something about Phil Mitsch. He used to be a real estate giant in the region, but he lost everything in a contentious divorce. I really hope he finds success in life now that the poor guy's hit rock bottom. Also, he put up a fair number of black-and-white yard signs, not color ones.
LD-7 (dark grey): Senator Diane Allen (R), Assemblymen Conaway (D) and Singleton (D)
59.6%D/40.4%R
2011 Results: 57% Allen - 43% Cook (D)
26% Conaway, 26% Singleton, 24% Halgas, 24% Keegan
This is the most Democratic district represented by a Republican. Allen is fully pro-choice and was the only Republican senator to vote to override a veto on funding women's health clinics. Republicans strongly targeted the Assembly races here as there was an open seat (vacated by a Democrat who was drawn out of this district) and Democrats backed newbie Dr. Troy Singleton. It was a close race, but Democrats were up all aces here.
LD-8 (slate blue): Senator Dawn Addiego (R), two Republican Assemblymen
49.9%D/50.1%R
Uncontested Senate Race
Democrats tried to run Carl Lewis here, but he got pulled and a court put him back on the ballot only to reverse itself quickly. Maybe next time.
LD-9 (cyan): Senator Christopher Connors (R), two Republican Assemblymen
44%D/56%R
2011 Results: 65% Connors - 35% Ryan (D)
Most of this district is in Republican Ocean County, where Democrats rarely win anything. They did have a pleasant evening in Brick Township (Pop. 75,000), where Democrats swept all four council seats up for election. Ironically, they won because of a tax revolt against the incumbent Republicans.
LD-10 (deep pink): Senator Jim Holzapfel (R), two Republican Assemblymen
42%R/58%R
2011 Results: 64% Holzapfel - 36% Tivenan
Ditto what I said above above, except this district is fully in Ocean County.
Let's move up to central New Jersey now.
LD-30 (light coral): Senator Robert Singer (R), two Republican Assemblymen
39.7%D/60.3%R
2011 Results: 66% Singer, 34% Morlino (R)
This is district is in the most conservative part of Monmouth County and it takes some conservative towns from Ocean County as well.
LD-12 (cornflower blue): Senator Sam Thompson (R), two Republican Assemblymen
45.5%D/54.5%R
2011 Results: 60% Thompson, 40% Brown (D)
This region is very military-oriented. It contains Fort Dix, McGuire Air Force Base, and the Lakehurst Naval Air Station.
LD-11 (chartreuse): Senator Jen Beck (R), two Republican Assemblymen
53.2%D/46.8%R
2011 Results: 57% Beck - 43% Santiago (D)
This is the most Dem-leaning part of Monmouth County, and that might be because Frank Pallone always runs up his numbers in this area. This district takes in Asbury Park, Long Branch, and Freehold. A Democrat can surely get elected here, but it would take a very strong campaign.
LD-13 (dark salmon): Senator Joe Kyrillos (R), two Republican Assemblymen
44.9%D/55.1%R
2011 Results: 60% Kyrillos - 37% Cullen (D)
This race is interesting because Kyrillos is planning on running against Senator Menendez (and is already being joined by Anna Little). Kyrillos has been very active in the NJ GOP, but he is always a bridesmaid, never a bride.
LD-14 (olive): Senator Linda Greenstein (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
54.1%D/45.9%R
2011 Results: 55% Greenstein - 45% Kanka (R)
Republicans wanted this seat back sorely. They lost it in a special last year to Greenstein. It had previously been represented by Republicans such as Bill Baroni and Tom Inverso. This time, they ran Richard Kanka, the father of the late Megan Kanka (whose death back in 1994 spurred the creation of "Megan's Law" to mandate reporting of registered sex offenders). Kanka, a pipe-fitter from Hamilton, had a good resume to run with. Linda Greenstein, personally wealthy, ran a ton of ads and a strenuous ground game in this district that takes in the Trenton and New Brunswick suburbs. On election day, I swore I heard a radio ad from her campaign in every commercial break. When the results came in and it was found that Kanka lost his hometown of Hamilton, it was a sure thing that he would lose.
LD-15 (dark orange): Senator Shirley Turner (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
65.6%D/34.4%R
2011 Results: 66% Turner - 34% Cox (R)
Donald Cox, a former Ewing councilman, was the Mercer County GOP's sacrificial lamb here.
Let's move a little north of Trenton.
LD-16 (lime): Senator Chris Bateman (R), two Republican Assemblymen
48.5%D/51.5%R
2011 Results: 55% Bateman - 45% Vella (D)
What is of note here is one of the Assemblymen, Pete Biondi, passed away mere days after winning reelection. A special election will be held next November to fill this vacancy. Here are the candidates running so far. It's an uphill battle for Democrats here, but not impossible.
LD-23 (aquamarine): Senator Mike Doherty (R), two Republican Assemblymen
39%D/61%R
2011 Results: 61% Doherty - 36% Graf (D)
This district contains portions of Hunterdon, Somerset, and Warren Counties. We're nearing Scott Garrett territory.
Now it's on to northeastern New Jersey.
LD-17 (dark slate blue): Senator Bob Smith (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
65.9%D/34.1%R
2011 Results: 64% Smith - 36% Rickards (R)
New Brunswick and its suburbs in Somerset County are in this district. No trouble for Democrats here.
LD-18 (yellow): Senator Barbara Buono (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
57.4%D/42.6%R
2011 Results: 60% Buono - 40% Dittman (R)
Senator Buono was nearly combined with Vitale (D) in LD-19 in redistricting, but that was scrapped due to opposition from Democratic activists. She easily won re-election, but she lost her Majority Leader position due to her outspoken nature. She may run against Christie in 2013, but we will see. Chris Christie talked up Republican chances in this district, but that was probably just a morale booster.
LD-19 (yellow-green): Senator Joe Vitale (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
61.7%D/38.3%R
2011 Results: 67% Vitale - 33% Lund (R)
Vitale has heavily Democratic Perth Amboy in it. No troubles here whatsoever.
LD-20 (pink): Senator Ray Lesniak (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
70.2%D/29.8%R (Majority-Minority)
2011 Results: 76% Lesniak - 24% Morales (R)
Ray Lesniak's district contains the city of Elizabeth, so he is at no risk here. Ray Lesniak is the Peter Defazio of New Jersey. He ranges from being an ardent old-school populist to being ambiguous to being a slight jackass, but you cannot bring yourself to hate or dislike him.
LD-21 (maroon): Senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R), two Republican Assemblymen
44.3%D/55.7%R
2011 Results: 68% Kean - 32% Swanicke (D)
Former Governor Kean's son is safer here than even a generic Republican. I also take it he isn't running against for Senate against Menendez or else he would have formed an exploratory committee or put the brakes on Kyrillos' possible campaign.
LD-22 (sienna): Senator Nick Scutari (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
62%D/38%R
2011 Results: 62% Scutari - 38% Class (R)
This district is mostly in southern Union County. Still Democratic territory.
LD-27 (spring green): Senator Dick Codey (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
56%D/44%R
2011 Results: 62% Codey - 38% Eames (R)
The former Senate President got a tougher district in redistricting and had his district extend a leg into old-school Republican Morris County. Republicans nominated tea partier William Eames to run. He ran an energetic campaign on a shoestring, but Codey swamped in his new district. Codey probably even had downballot effects too as Madison, NJ Councilman Conley (D) upset the long-time mayor of the town. I really wish they'd bring back Codey as Senate President, but that ship has probably sailed.
LD-28 (plum): Senator Ronald Rice (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
75.7%D/24.3%R (VAP: 52.1% Black)
2011 Results: 76% Rice - 24% Mollica (R)
Senator Rice's district takes in the western strip of Newark. It's one of the very, very few boroughs/townships/cities that are split in this map. Anyway, Rice is safe. In the meantime, he is blocking Christie's nomination to head the state's education commission due to his concern over the state's controlling of Newark schools.
LD-29 (dark sea green): Senator Teresa Ruiz (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
82.5%D/17.5%R (Majority-Minority)
2011 Results: 82% Ruiz - 15% Sanabria Tejada (R)
This district has the bulk of Newark in it. I believe it's the most Democratic district in the whole state. Teresa Ruiz may also wield the future of teacher tenure in her hand as she chairs the education committee.
LD-31 (khaki): Senator Sandra Cunningham (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
76.1%D/23.9%R (Majority-Minority)
2011 Results: 81% Cunningham - 17% James (R)
This district is very diverse and the races are relatively evenly split between Caucasian, Hispanic, Black, and Asian.
LD-33 (royal blue): Senator Brian Stack (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
73.3%D/26.7%R (Majority-Minority)
2011 Results: 87% Stack - 13% Hamburger (R-Yum)
Pure-bred Christiecrat Stack won the largest percentage of the vote of any contested senate race in the state.
LD-32 (orange-red): Senator Nick Sacco (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
69%D/31%R (VAP: 54% Hispanic)
2011 Results: 81% Sacco - 16% O'Neill (R)
Yet another safe Dem district in NE Jersey.
LD-34 (lime-green): Senator Nia Gill (D), two Democratic Assemblymen (including Speaker Sheila Oliver)
74.9%D/25.1%R (Majority-Minority)
2011 Results: 80% Gill - 20% Bartnik (R)
This district stretches from East Orange to Clifton and is very Democratic. By the way, if you are ever near Clifton, NJ, stop by Rutt's Hut for their wonderful hot dogs. If you do, make sure you also put some of their homemade relish on your hot dog. You won't regret it. ;)
LD-36 (orange): Senator Paul Sarlo (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
59.9%D/40.1%R
2011 Results: 63% Sarlo - 37% DiOrio (R)
Now we're getting to Bergen County. Probably one of the happier places for NJ Dems this year, but we'll get to that later.
LD-35 (dark orchid): Senator Nellie Pou (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
75.6%D/24.4%R (Majority-Minority)
2011 Results: 75% Pou - 25% Pengitore (R)
The county seat of Passaic County, Paterson, is in this district. Paterson is now majority-Hispanic and the main reason this district is majority-minority.
LD-38 (medium aquamarine): Senator Bob Gordon (D), Assemblymen Wagner (D) and Eustace (D)
53.4%D/46.6%R
2011 Results: 53% Gordon - 47% Driscoll (R)
27% Wagner, 26% Eustace, 23% Goldberg (R), 23% Alonso (R)
This was the other big race of the NJ Senate this year and was a microcosm of Bergen County races as well. This district became significantly less Democratic in redistricting by losing Hackensack. It went from being a district that Corzine won by an 8-point spread to one he won by a 1/2-point spread. Republicans ran their top-most candidate, Bergen County Board of Freeholders Chairman John Driscoll. They also hoped they could finish the job they started in 2009 and make the Bergen County Board of Freeholders 7-0 Republican since both Dem freeholders were up. This was an intense race. Christie invested a lot in winning this race by holding major fundraisers and doing robocalls. John Driscoll also did a last-minute, 6-figure ad blitz. Bergen Dems, however, stepped in it a little when they, in an ad, accused John Driscoll of "wasting" $400K of taxpayers' money on Xanadu, a stalled mall/entertainment complex. This drew the ire of building and trade unions who saw this as belittling their efforts. Republicans jumped on this, but it was not enough. Driscoll lost to Gordon 53-47 in this marquis race. Bergen County Republicans were further dismayed when both Democratic freeholders held on solidly and lost the County Clerk position to the Democrats (the first time since 1988).
Finally, let's move up to northern New Jersey.
LD-24 (indigo): Senator Steve Oroho (R), two Republican Assemblymen
36.4%D/63.6%R
2011 Results: 66% Oroho - 34% Selby (D)
This is Sussex County, where Scott Garrett is from.
LD-25 (pale violet-red): Senator Tony Bucco (R), two Republican Assemblymen
42.1%D/57.9%R
2011 Results: 61% Bucco - 39% Thoeni (R)
This district is largely in Republican Morris County. Nothing to see here either.
LD-26 (grey): Senator Joe Pennacchio (R), two Republican Assemblymen
42.2%D/57.8%R
2011 Results: 64% Pennacchio - 33% Khan (D)
This district takes in Morris County, and the more Republican parts of Essex and Passaic County. Also pretty safely Republican.
LD-40 (firebrick): Senator Kevin O'Toole (R), two Republican Assemblymen
43.3%D/56.7%R
2011 Results: 62% O'Toole - 38% Zunic (D)
Democrats challenged this district more energetically than usual and Republicans really went hard on them, but this district is too Republican to be really in play.
LD-39 (moccasin): Senator Gerald Cardinale (R), two Republican Assemblymen
45.1%D/54.9%R
2011 Results: 63% Cardinale - 37% Waldes (D)
This district spans the more Republican parts of Bergen and Passaic County. Looks tempting on paper, but out of reach in almost all years. It would take another Watergate to drag down Republicans enough for Democrats to win here.
LD-37 (dodger blue): Senator Loretta Weinberg (D), two Democratic Assemblymen
68.7%D/31.3%R
2011 Results: 70% Weinberg - 30% Lebovics (R)
Last, but not least we have Majority Leader-elect Loretta Weinberg. Her district contains the most Dem-leaning parts of Bergen County (such as Hackensack) and her winning re-election was assured from the start. Now, she'll have the task of being the new Senate Majority Leader. A good choice, but the NJ Majority Leader has little power, if any. They mostly function as a consultant/right-hand (wo)man to the Senate President. For instance, outgoing Majority Leader Barbara Buono stalwartly opposed the pension reform bill pushed by Senate President Sweeney and NJ political bosses, but she was powerless to stop its passage. I hope Weinberg has more success in this position.
That's all for now. All in all, Democrats did pretty well in NJ last month and I'm happy they bucked the funk that set in on the party in 2009.
Feel free to discuss, comment, critique, or whatever.
Addendum: Professor Alan Rosenthal, the tiebreaker during legislative redistricting, opened up early last month about the process. He said he regretted that the map chosen was not more competitive, but he was basically forced to pick either the Dem map or the GOP map. He even offered to make his own map, as stated here:
“At one point I tried to make an attempt to make a map of my own,” Rosenthal said. “I took a Democratic map submission and turned it around. I wanted Republicans to tell me how to change it.
“They didn’t want to play that game,” the professor added. “I tried to negotiate a map and Republicans refused to do that. So I had to pick one map, and I did.”
The GOP map would have packed Latinos more than the map that was chosen. Their map would have put a majority fairly easily within reach. Since they were not willing to bend on their map, they ended up losing.