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Continuing my series, what would happen if the size of the House were suddenly doubled to 870? Thanks to math from Marcus Graly, we can do that! In this diary Hawaii (4 Districts) and the Dakotas (2 each).

Previous diaries: NM, VT, DE and ID

Hawaii
Hawaii gets 4 districts. Also, it has no political data, so I'll mostly just be guessing.

District 1 (Blue)
VAP: 36.2 White, 8.7 Hispanic, 36.5 Asian, 17.7 Other

Bare plurality Asian. I'm guessing Other is Native Hawaiians? This district contains all of Hawaii, Maui and Kalawao Counties. This district is likely ├╝ber-Democratic. Safe D

District 2 (Green)
VAP: 24.6 W, 9.3 H, 44.7 A, 18.8 O

Plurality Asian. Contains Kauai County as well as the Oahu portion. Colleen Hanabusa (D) lives in this district. Also likely Safe D

District 3 (Purple)
VAP: 21.8 W, 6.7 H, 53.6 A, 15.5 O

Majority Asian. Not much to say, likely very Safe D, especially in an Obama presidential year.

District 4 (Red)
VAP: 19.8 W, 62.8 A, 12.1 O

Majority Asian. Just looking at the placement compared to the current map, if there was any district Charles Djou would run in, it would either be this one or the 3rd. And he'd lose in both. Safe D

North Dakota
North Dakota gets 2 districts. Again, no political data.

District 1 (Blue)
VAP: 89.6 White, 4.8 Native

Fargo, Grand Forks and the Native American areas in the NE part of the state. No clue about a race rating, but it's more Democratic than the other district for sure. Former State Rep. Pam Gulleson (D), who is currently running for the at-large district, lives in this new district. Lean D?

District 2 (Green)
VAP: 92.4 W

This is actually the district containing the home of former Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D). If he ran, it would probably be tighter, but unlikely to elect a Democrat again otherwise. Safe R

South Dakota
South Dakota gets 2 districts. Finally, some political data! I gerrymandered accordingly ;)

District 1 (Blue)
VAP: 83.9 W, 10.2 Native
49.5 Obama

Ugly, ugly district that contains Sioux Falls and pretty much every Native American in the state. Unlike the current at-large district, which McCain won 53-44, Obama actually won this district, albeit with a plurality. Former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's (D) home is in this district, and if she ran, she would win. Other than that, I'd call it Lean D

District 2 (Green)
VAP: 91.7 W
40.3 Obama

Resident and Rep. Kristi Noem (R) should be happy. Based in Rapid City, the district becomes 4 points safer for Republicans. Safe R
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So these three states should have delegations of 4-0, 1-1 and 1-1, respectively. Bringing the House of Representatives so far to 15-7-1. Please tip/rec and comment with your thoughts!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 12:01:57 AM PST

  •  Where does Herseth-Sandlin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, Setsuna Mudo

    actually live?

    Also, you should do and un-gerrymandered one just for us to see what it look like.

    Otherwise, I like!

    19, male, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, With all the crap Scooter is doing, I should move, but that would be one less vote to end the FitzWalkerstanian police state by recalling Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 12:24:02 AM PST

  •  Hawaii (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, Skaje

    Hmm...

    Kerry only beat Bush by 3 points in Oahu.

    I'm guessing one of your Oahu districts is a bit more Republican than you think. I'd imagine Charles Djou having a decent shot at one of them. Obama had a HUGE home state boost in Hawaii. The numbers there are inflated.

    •  I'm not sure if (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      just looking at 2004 is that much better than just looking at 2008--sure, you eliminate the home state effect, but it's still a single election.  In 2000, Gore won Honolulu county by almost 15 points, and probably would have had more if not for Nader.  Maybe Bush campaigned there in 2004 and Kerry didn't bother, and it's a bounce akin to Obama's in Indiana.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      But I agree that HoosierD is being a bit overoptimistic if you take 2004 into account, probably--we just need a fair and comprehensive way to take it into account.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 08:53:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I remember back in '04, that Bush (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        played in HI in the final days of the campaign. Cheney even visited there.

        19, male, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, With all the crap Scooter is doing, I should move, but that would be one less vote to end the FitzWalkerstanian police state by recalling Scott Walker!!!!

        by WisJohn on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 09:03:53 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  You're correct (5+ / 0-)

      From eye-balling the map, (and from what I picked up after living in Hawaii for 20 years) it looks like the red district (HI-04) would be the most favorable to Republicans by far.  Kerry would have lost it.  The other three districts spread GOP voters better and should be solid Dem.

      There are a handful of places around the state that can be swingy and occasionally elect a GOP state legislator, but there is really only one significant base of loyal Republicans in the whole state, and the one that produces the last remaining GOP state senator.  It is in southeast Oahu running from Aina Haina east to Hawaii Kai.  That stretch is extremely wealthy and very conservative on taxes.  Despite the top-line number for "Asian" in the district I would guess it has less people of Japanese and Filipino ancestry (solid Dem groups in Hawaii) and more people of Chinese ancestry, with a higher percentage of Republicans.

      The reason HI-01 currently holds up alright for us is that the Republicans in it are diluted pretty well by the extremely partisan Democrats in central Oahu around Pearl City and Waipahu.  Downtown Honolulu itself is more swingy and I wouldn't count on them to balance out the Republicans to the east.

      It's difficult to really crack GOP strength there in smaller districts because the areas nearby tend to be swingy (such as Kailua to the north).  So the Dem legislature pretty much just packs the seat as a GOP vote sink.  With four districts statewide, it would probably require more creative line-drawing to get the desired gerrymander.

      •  Chinese people are Republican (0+ / 0-)

        in HI? Interesting, I thought they tended to be more Democratic-leaning on the mainland.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:16:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't say they are Republican (0+ / 0-)

          just that they're not 90% Democrats the way Japanese people are in Hawaii, or ~75% Dem as with Filipinos.  They would still lean Democratic overall I think, just not as much.

      •  Recced for super-interesting granular info (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        However, I've done a bit of research into the Honolulu City Council, and it's interesting that, while Djou did represent Council District 4 in the area you describe (I think, I'm no expert on the area), the most conservative members of the current Honolulu City Council--or at least the most consistent "no" votes on taxes and fees, as far as I can tell--do not represent District 4.

        The most consistent "no" vote is Berg, who represents District 1:

        "Ewa, Ewa Beach, Honouliuli, West Loch, Kapolei, Kalaeloa (Barber's Point), Honokai Hale and Nanakai Gardens, Ko'Olina, Nanakuli, Wai'anae, Makaha, Keaau, and Makua."

        The Council split most evenly in 2011 on the following bond issue:

        http://www4.honolulu.gov/...(11).htm

        with Chang (the current District 4 representative), Gabbard Tamayo, Harimoto, and Martin voting for it; Anderson, Berg, Cachola, and Kobayashi voting against it; and Garcia absent.  

        Kobayashi and Anderson--who actually might be the second-most frequent "no" vote, although this and the above are guesstimates- represent districts adjacent to District 4, but Cachola represents:

        "A portion of upper Kalihi, Kapalama, Palama, Iwilei, Kalihi Kai, Sand Island, Mapunapuna, Airport, Hickam, Pearl Harbor, Ford Island, Aliamanu, Salt Lake, Foster Village, Stadium and Halawa Valley Estates."

        I don't really know the ideological content of these votes, of course.

        http://www1.honolulu.gov/...
        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:57:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  For whatever it's worth (0+ / 0-)

          Ko'Olina is one of Colleen Hanabusa's two residences (the other being Kakaako). I'm not sure which one she's registered to vote in; presumably Kakaako since that is clearly in HI-01 whereas Ko'Olina appears to be in HI-02...

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 12:07:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  The city council is a mess (0+ / 0-)

          and when I was in Hawaii they always seemed to be defined more by parochial issues than strict partisan leanings.  For instance, the vote for light rail in Honolulu seemed to come down more to which council members got more out of it for their districts, rather than any grand political debates on the merits of light rail and government-funded infrastructure.  I barely even saw any obviously partisan advertisements in the city council races, the races seemed to turn more on personal things.  Such is what you get when you remove party affiliation from the ballots and force everyone to be "independent".  Besides Djou, who was obviously a Republican, I couldn't tell the affiliations of anyone else.

          As for their districts' partisan leanings, my best guesses based on that map is that 4 is the obvious GOP-leaning one, 8 and 9 are extraordinarily Democratic, and everything else is varying levels of swinginess by Hawaii standards (but probably would lean Dem under normal situations).

          The list here gives you an idea of where Republicans can get themselves elected in Hawaii, but I'd say a couple of them are 2010 flukes, a couple others hold down Dem districts because of their moderation and longevity.  Basically every Republican seat in Hawaii would be competitive in an open seat situation except for the Hawaii Kai one.  Of course, we hold down a bunch of swingy seats ourselves, but such is the sorry state of the Hawaii GOP.

    •  Obama may have overperformed in HI (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      but so did Bush.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:15:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Assuming these maps would be in place immediately (0+ / 0-)

      Then all 4 Hawaii districts would be Safe D by virtue of Obama being on the top of the ticket. I agree that one or maybe even two could be more competitive without Obama, but that's only relatively speaking. Other than Djou, who only won with 39.4% of the vote, Hawaii hasn't elected a Republican federally since 1990.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:16:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Kerry numbers were a low point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        and Hawaii Democrats have almost always outperformed that low baseline.  The Lingle administration is the glaring exception but I chalk her first victory up to a number of terrible circumstances for Democrats in 2002, and her easy re-election up to the fact that Hawaii Dems ran a total nobody.

        Still, Bush would have won HI-04 as drawn, and I think we would have to work for it without an obvious incumbent already in place.

  •  The purple district (0+ / 0-)

    could be the swingiest one IMO.  Bush did so well on Oahu because of the large military presence and the feeling that Bush was the more "pro-military" candidate... and your purple district contains two naval bases, Hickam and Kaneohe.  Also, the only McCain precinct in the entire state (besides a tiny precinct of Republican-voting natives on Niihau) was near Hickam, in the purple district.

  •  Interesting... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    As an ND expat, I would suggest a better gerrymandering scheme:

    Photobucket

    This map puts the Red River Valley(where the Democrats are) together with Minot(swingy) and three of the Native American reservations in the 1st District.  The fourth reservation, Standing Rock, borders SD and would be impossible to add to the first without violating contiguity.  My guess is that it would be the best chance of producing a Democrat.  Bismarck, Mandan and the rest of the state are reliably republican, and will absolutely produce one.  

    "Either we have to ask the wealthy to pay their fair share, or we have to ask seniors to pay more for medicare, or gut education...This is not class warfare. It's Math."

    by Adam Blomeke on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 01:55:36 PM PST

    •  I've done some rethinking... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      I think a modified version of your map is better.  My counterpart in Bismarck and I have determined that this is the best map we can draw without election numbers:

      http://i422.photobucket.com/...

      D1 now includes Spirit Lake and Standing rock, along with solid Democratic Rollette and Bottineau counties.  It also fits in Aneta Democrat Ben Vig, Joel Heitkamp in Mantador, Corey Mock in Grand Forks, Jasper Schneider in Fargo, Mac Schneider in Grand Forks, and would make for quite the primary race.  

      This map pretty much ensures one Democrat and one Republican not named Rick Berg (Fargo) in congress from North Dakota.

      "Either we have to ask the wealthy to pay their fair share, or we have to ask seniors to pay more for medicare, or gut education...This is not class warfare. It's Math."

      by Adam Blomeke on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 03:00:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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