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I'll update as I get more information, but take this for now. (EDIT: I posted all statewide races 2000-2010. That's enough.) Note: The Brady/Fattah districts may be ever so slightly off because I just went by my eye there, since they don't really matter anyway. All other districts are going directly by the official legal descriptions, except for precinct splits.

I'll update as I have more, but take this for now.

District Obama McCain D R
1 79.6 % 19.6 % 79.2 % 20.8 %
2 90.6 % 9 % 88.5 % 11.5 %
3 46.3 % 52.3 % 47.1 % 52.9 %
4 45.2 % 53.7 % 41.2 % 58.8 %
5 47.1 % 51.5 % 46.2 % 53.8 %
6 53 % 46 % 48.5 % 51.5 %
7 51.2 % 47.8 % 48.2 % 51.8 %
8 53.2 % 45.7 % 51.1 % 48.9 %
9 41 % 57.8 % 44.4 % 55.6 %
10 42.3 % 56.5 % 39.7 % 60.3 %
11 46.9 % 51.8 % 45.4 % 54.6 %
12 44.7 % 54.1 % 49.1 % 50.9 %
13 64.8 % 34.3 % 64 % 36 %
14 67.2 % 31.8 % 69.7 % 30.3 %
15 52.1 % 46.6 % 49.6 % 50.4 %
16 50.2 % 49 % 44 % 56 %
17 56.9 % 41.9 % 56.6 % 43.4 %
18 43.8 % 55.2 % 48.4 % 51.6 %
District WhiteVAP BlackVAP HispanicVAP AsianVAP
1 43 % 35 % 14 % 7 %
2 35 % 53 % 6 % 5 %
3 93 % 4 % 1 % 1 %
4 85 % 7 % 5 % 2 %
5 94 % 2 % 2 % 2 %
6 88 % 4 % 4 % 3 %
7 88 % 5 % 2 % 4 %
8 88 % 3 % 4 % 4 %
9 95 % 3 % 1 % 1 %
10 93 % 3 % 3 % 1 %
11 90 % 4 % 3 % 1 %
12 94 % 3 % 1 % 1 %
13 67 % 15 % 8 % 8 %
14 75 % 19 % 2 % 3 %
15 83 % 3 % 10 % 2 %
16 78 % 5 % 13 % 2 %
17 87 % 5 % 5 % 1 %
18 95 % 2 % 1 % 2 %
District          
1 Brady 55% Schwartz 16% Meehan 15% Fattah 15%  
2 Fattah 64% Brady 27% Gerlach 9%    
3 Kelly 70% Altmire 23% Critz 5% Thompson 3%  
4 Plaats 93% Holden 7%      
5 Thompson 73% Kelly 21% Shuster 6%    
6 Gerlach 50% Meehan 19% Holden 18% Pitts 6% Dent 5%
7 Meehan 57% Gerlach 20% Schwartz 12% Pitts 10% Holden 1%
8 Fitzpatrick 89% Schwartz 7% Dent 4%    
9 Shuster 70% Critz 29% Murphy 1%    
10 Marino 66% Thompson 17% Barletta 9% Shuster 7% Holden 2%
11 Barletta 35% Marino 24% Holden 23% Plaats 10% Shuster 8%
12 Altmire 64% Critz 29% Shuster 4% Murphy 2% Doyle 1%
13 Schwartz 60% Brady 11% Fattah 11% Gerlach 8% Fitzpatrick 6%
14 Doyle 82% Murphy 10% Altmire 4% Critz 3%  
15 Dent 72% Holden 25% Gerlach 3%    
16 Pitts 86% Gerlach 14% Holden 1%    
17 Barletta 53% Holden 21% Dent 20% Marino 6%  
18 Murphy 79% Critz 20% Altmire 1% Doyle 1%

Keep in mind, the following numbers are estimates, as opposed to the hard numbers (except for precinct splits) for Obama/McCain above

They may not be entirely reliable in Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties (where my method of estimating isn't optimal), but should come very close everywhere else [and even in Philly and Pittsburgh they'll be good points to orientate yourself at].

Also, everything that follows is two-way numbers while the Obama-McCain numbers are not.

District Kerry Bush PVI
1 77.2% 22.8% D+28
2 89.3% 10.7% D+39
3 45.3% 54.7% R+5
4 38.3% 61.7% R+9
5 42.1% 57.9% R+6
6 46.8% 53.2% R+1
7 47.1% 52.9% R+2
8 50.6% 49.4% D+1
9 40.1% 59.9% R+10
10 36.5% 63.5% R+11
11 41.9% 58.1% R+6
12 45.7% 54.3% R+6
13 60.8% 39.2% D+12
14 67.7% 32.3% D+17
15 46% 54% R+2
16 40.8% 59.2% R+5
17 53.3% 46.7% D+4
18 45.4% 54.6% R+6
District Gore Bush Sestak Toomey Onorato Corbett
1 77.7% 22.3% 79.6% 20.4% 77.9% 22.1%
2 89.7% 10.3% 90.3% 9.7% 89.6% 10.4%
3 46.9% 53.1% 41.8% 58.2% 37.8% 62.2%
4 39.7% 60.3% 35.4% 64.6% 31.8% 68.2%
5 42.2% 57.8% 41.1% 58.9% 37.2% 62.8%
6 45.3% 54.7% 45.2% 54.8% 42.3% 57.7%
7 45.8% 54.2% 45.7% 54.3% 42.7% 57.3%
8 51.2% 48.8% 46.4% 53.6% 44.2% 55.8%
9 43.3% 56.7% 37.1% 62.9% 32.7% 67.3%
10 38.4% 61.6% 34.2% 65.8% 31% 69%
11 43.3% 56.7% 40.2% 59.8% 35.9% 64.1%
12 47.9% 52.1% 42.9% 57.1% 37.8% 62.2%
13 61.1% 38.9% 62.1% 37.9% 60% 40%
14 68.4% 31.6% 65.1% 34.9% 60.5% 39.5%
15 46.2% 53.8% 42.6% 57.4% 39.9% 60.1%
16 39.1% 60.9% 39% 61% 36% 64%
17 55.8% 44.2% 51.7% 48.3% 48% 52%
18 47.9% 52.1% 41.6% 58.4% 36.2% 63.8%
District Casey Santorum Hoeffel Specter Klink Santorum
1 80.8% 19.2% 67.3% 32.7% 71.3% 28.7%
2 91% 9% 84% 16% 86.4% 13.6%
3 53.3% 46.7% 39.1% 60.9% 43.6% 56.4%
4 48.1% 51.9% 33.4% 66.6% 36.5% 63.5%
5 52.5% 47.5% 35% 65% 36% 64%
6 54.4% 45.6% 38.4% 61.6% 36.6% 63.4%
7 52.6% 47.4% 37.4% 62.6% 35.9% 64.1%
8 57.7% 42.3% 41.1% 58.9% 40.9% 59.1%
9 51.4% 48.6% 37.1% 62.9% 41.1% 58.9%
10 45.6% 54.4% 30.4% 69.6% 32.1% 67.9%
11 50.9% 49.1% 33.7% 66.3% 38.3% 61.7%
12 56.4% 43.6% 42.6% 57.4% 46.8% 53.2%
13 66.6% 33.4% 49.8% 50.2% 52.2% 47.8%
14 74.1% 25.9% 62.3% 37.7% 65.8% 34.2%
15 53.2% 46.8% 39.3% 60.7% 39% 61%
16 49% 51% 36.2% 63.8% 34% 66%
17 62.5% 37.5% 43.4% 56.6% 47.9% 52.1%
18 54.3% 45.7% 42% 58% 46.3% 53.7%
2006 Governor   2002 Governor  
  Dem GOP Dem GOP
District Rendell Swann Rendell Fisher
1 87.3% 12.7% 82.5% 17.5%
2 94% 6% 92.1% 7.9%
3 48.5% 51.5% 42.5% 57.5%
4 45.7% 54.3% 37.8% 62.2%
5 49.9% 50.1% 39.1% 60.9%
6 61.9% 38.1% 57.1% 42.9%
7 63.9% 36.1% 57.2% 42.8%
8 69.2% 30.8% 63.9% 36.1%
9 47.8% 52.2% 40.9% 59.1%
10 47.3% 52.7% 36% 64%
11 50.7% 49.3% 42.8% 57.2%
12 50.8% 49.2% 44.8% 55.2%
13 75.8% 24.2% 70.7% 29.3%
14 69.8% 30.2% 65.7% 34.3%
15 56.1% 43.9% 51.7% 48.3%
16 50.8% 49.2% 43.3% 56.7%
17 66.4% 33.6% 58.3% 41.7%
18 48% 52% 45.5% 54.5%
2008 State Treasurer   2004 State Treasurer   2000 State Treasurer  
  Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP
District McCord Ellis Casey Pepper Knoll Hafer
1 79.7% 20.3% 81.3% 18.7% 73.5% 26.5%
2 90.7% 9.3% 91.5% 8.5% 87.6% 12.4%
3 49.9% 50.1% 60% 40% 48.9% 51.1%
4 46% 54% 52.2% 47.8% 35% 65%
5 49.7% 50.3% 58.3% 41.7% 44.1% 55.9%
6 49.1% 50.9% 54.7% 45.3% 39.2% 60.8%
7 46.4% 53.6% 50.9% 49.1% 38.3% 61.7%
8 51% 49% 54.7% 45.3% 44.4% 55.6%
9 47.5% 52.5% 61% 39% 44.8% 55.2%
10 44.2% 55.8% 50.5% 49.5% 36.2% 63.8%
11 50.6% 49.4% 59% 41% 38.8% 61.2%
12 53.3% 46.7% 65.7% 34.3% 48.6% 51.4%
13 62.8% 37.2% 66.1% 33.9% 54.5% 45.5%
14 72.5% 27.5% 78.6% 21.4% 63.8% 36.2%
15 50.9% 49.1% 56.5% 43.5% 41.6% 58.4%
16 47.9% 52.1% 51% 49% 37.2% 62.8%
17 62.1% 37.9% 67.4% 32.6% 53.2% 46.8%
18 52.1% 47.9% 62.7% 37.3% 46.3% 53.7%
2008 Attorney General   2004 Attorney General   2000 Attorney General  
  Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP
District Morganelli Corbett Eisenhower Corbett Eisenhower Fisher
1 75.4% 24.6% 76.5% 23.5% 73.2% 26.8%
2 88.6% 11.4% 89.1% 10.9% 87.5% 12.5%
3 38.5% 61.5% 41.6% 58.4% 39.3% 60.7%
4 33.2% 66.8% 37% 63% 30.9% 69.1%
5 37.5% 62.5% 39.7% 60.3% 35% 65%
6 42.9% 57.1% 43.9% 56.1% 37.3% 62.7%
7 41.3% 58.7% 42.9% 57.1% 36.8% 63.2%
8 45.9% 54.1% 47.9% 52.1% 43.7% 56.3%
9 34.7% 65.3% 40.8% 59.2% 37.9% 62.1%
10 33.5% 66.5% 33.7% 66.3% 30.5% 69.5%
11 35.8% 64.2% 39.5% 60.5% 33.9% 66.1%
12 37.6% 62.4% 45% 55% 40.4% 59.6%
13 57.6% 42.4% 58.9% 41.1% 54% 46%
14 58.1% 41.9% 64.1% 35.9% 57.8% 42.2%
15 50.4% 49.6% 44.4% 55.6% 39.6% 60.4%
16 38.2% 61.8% 37.9% 62.1% 31.9% 68.1%
17 51.5% 48.5% 49.7% 50.3% 46.8% 53.2%
18 36.1% 63.9% 43.7% 56.3% 39.6% 60.4%
2008 State Auditor   2004 State Auditor   2000 State Auditor  
  Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP
District Wagner Beiler Wagner Peters Casey True
1 81.8% 18.2% 77.6% 22.4% 80.6% 19.4%
2 91.8% 8.2% 89.7% 10.3% 91.2% 8.8%
3 58.7% 41.3% 51.8% 48.2% 57.9% 42.1%
4 48.2% 51.8% 38.8% 61.2% 48.4% 51.6%
5 55.8% 44.2% 45.1% 54.9% 52.1% 47.9%
6 52.6% 47.4% 45.3% 54.7% 50.6% 49.4%
7 49.9% 50.1% 44% 56% 48.1% 51.9%
8 54.2% 45.8% 48.7% 51.3% 53.7% 46.3%
9 54.4% 45.6% 47.4% 52.6% 53.7% 46.3%
10 46.9% 53.1% 35.8% 64.2% 46.7% 53.3%
11 53.4% 46.6% 42.6% 57.4% 53.3% 46.7%
12 63.8% 36.2% 56.4% 43.6% 58.4% 41.6%
13 66.4% 33.6% 60.6% 39.4% 64.4% 35.6%
14 81.1% 18.9% 75.2% 24.8% 74.2% 25.8%
15 55.1% 44.9% 45.9% 54.1% 53.9% 46.1%
16 47.6% 52.4% 39.2% 60.8% 39.8% 60.2%
17 64.4% 35.6% 51.5% 48.5% 65.2% 34.8%
18 62.8% 37.2% 56.3% 43.7% 57.6% 42.4%

Originally posted to twohundertseventy on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 05:31 PM PST.

Also republished by Progressive Hippie.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Wow! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Great work, 270.

    These numbers confirm that PA-06, PA-07, and PA-15 are now pretty damn solid for Gerlach, Meehan, and Dent. I worry a bit about Fitzpatrick in PA-08, but he won Bucks County in 2006 and gained R friendly precincts in MontCo, so I'm pretty comfortable with that PA-08. Oh, and now that Republicans will need to spend less on PA-06, PA-07, and PA-15, more resources can be spent on defending PA-08 and picking up PA-12. This is quite a gerrymander.

  •  PA-12: Advantage to Altmire. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    He represents upwards of 60% of the new PA-12.  Also, I have yet to get an answer on how he and Critz voted on the recently-passed trade pacts.

    Furthermore, Altmire's district (right now) is R+6, and this PA-12 is 1 or so points more Dem.  So I'd call it R+5 about, not R+6.  He's lucky Casey's up in 2012.  He'll help run up numbers in suburban Pittsburgh.

    'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

    by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 06:10:46 PM PST

  •  Hey, thanks for this (0+ / 0-)

    Would you mind making your drf available? You can put it up on google docs for download.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 06:57:15 PM PST

    •  That is, assuming you created one (0+ / 0-)

      It actually looks like you may have worked with the raw data!

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 06:57:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Looks like we're down to 6 Kerry districts (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, MichaelNY

        that's BAD news.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 07:00:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And 4 Eisenhower districts (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Adam B, MichaelNY

          Yeah, this is a terrifically effective map.

          Sigh. . .

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 07:01:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  At this point in time. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Who knows how things change.  For instance, PA-16 would be pushed further within reach, as is PA-8.  And that's just what is forseeable.

            And yes, it was bound to be strong if they took so long.

            At least the state leg maps are much better by comparison (commission-drawn), but Erie Dems and Delaware Co Dems need to get their act together if they want to win the majority in the State House.  However, if history is a guide, Democrats will have a Governor in PA in time for 2021.

            'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

            by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 07:05:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Here's your measure of effectiveness: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              They made absolutely sure that Sestak lost the 7th district to Toomey. . .

              As to the future. . .you can't ever really tell.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 07:07:06 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I'd like to see... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Tiger in BlueDenver, MichaelNY

              What the PVI of the current PA-6, PA-7, PA-8. and PA-15 was in 2002.  

              I bet it was pretty close to the PVI of these new districts.  

              •  Shifting terrain. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Tiger in BlueDenver, MichaelNY

                Looked at the PVI of each of these new districts using Kerry and Gore numbers, to see if there's any evidence of an "Obama shift"  

                Here's what the PVI would have been then, and the Obama shift.  

                PA-1: D+28 (R shift 0.4%)
                PA-2: D+40 (R shift 1.1%)
                PA-3: R+3 (R shift 1.7%)
                PA-4: R+11 (D shift 1.3%)
                PA-5: R+7 (D shift 1.1%)
                PA-6: R+3 (D shift 2.4%)
                PA-7: R+3 (D shift 1.3%)
                PA-8: D+1 (R shift 0.4%)
                PA-9: R+8 (R shift 2.6%)
                PA-10: R+12 (D shift 0.5%)
                PA-11: R+7 (D shift 0.4%)
                PA-12: R+3 (R shift 3.0%)
                PA-13: D+11 (D shift 0.4%)
                PA-14: D+19 (R shift 2.0%)
                PA-15: R+3 (D shift 1.6%)
                PA-16: R+10 (D shift 4.1%)
                PA-17: D+5 (R shift 0.8%)
                PA-18: R+3 (R shift 3.5%)

                Assuming the same trends hold up, by the next redistricting in 2022, the PVIs will be

                PA-1: D+26
                PA-2: D+36
                PA-3: R+10
                PA-4: R+5
                PA-5: R+3
                PA-6: D+6
                PA-7: D+2
                PA-8: EVEN
                PA-9: R+18
                PA-10: R+10
                PA-11: R+5
                PA-12: R+15
                PA-13: D+13
                PA-14: D+11
                PA-15: D+3
                PA-16: D+7
                PA-17: D+2
                PA-18: R+17

                The trends have been pretty consistent in PA for the regions since the 1990s, so I have no reason to doubt they'll reverse, even if they may speed up or slow down in places.

                Still, this confirms my gut instincts.  

                1.  We're going to lose PA-12 some time this decade, although I don't think it will be this year.  

                2.  PA-6 and PA-16 should become solid D seats.  

                3.  PA-7 and PA-15 will drift back towards us, while PA-8 stays pretty much the same.  

                4.  PA-4, PA-5, and PA-11 will all be seats not totally safe for Republicans by the end of the decade.  

                •  I don't think you can linearly extrapolate a shift (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  of 4 PVI points over a whole decade. Lancaster County shifted 7 points in terms of PVI from Carter to Obama. The surrounding areas are about the same. Considering that, I'd say it'll be about R+6-7 by the end of the decade.

                  •  Perhaps. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I'm working on an analysis of how PVI by county has changed in Pennsylvania by county going back at least to 1992.  I do have numbers for the bigger counties already, like

                    Lancaster:

                    1992: R+21
                    1996: R+20
                    2000: R+18
                    2004: R+15
                    2008: R+10

                    The trend has been accelerating, but overall, the shift has been a somewhat more moderate 12% (including rounding) over the last 16 years.  This suggests a drift of about 5% further to the left over the next decade, meaning something in the range of R+5.  

                    Throw in with this the bits of Chester and Berks that are in the district, and I'd be shocked if you don't end up with a district with a slight D lean by the end of the decade, although perhaps not D+7.  

          •  And look on the other side.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Democrats stand to gain in TX (that SCOTUS will probably repeat LULAC v. Perry's outcome is a reasonable guess, but who knows; also the DC Circuit is still a factor), IL, NY, CA, AZ, CO, WA, FL (FL-22, FL-26 or 27, maybe FL-02), and maybe a few others I'm missing.

            'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

            by KingofSpades on Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 07:10:22 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  No, I drew a drf from the Legal Description. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andgarden, dgb

        I just have a template that spits out all of this stuff in Excel. The numbers are only approximations, as I noted in the diary, but I'm fairly sure they come at least within half a percent.

        Dave kindly put my drf file on his website. You can download it here--
         http://gardow.com/...

        •  Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Any significance to the fact that you used the unrevised 2010 data? I like that it has averages, but are the population numbers different?

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Thu Dec 15, 2011 at 04:50:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bastards put Oreland in the 7th district! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Bleh. (The 7th is pretty near out of reach at this point, BTW).

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Thu Dec 15, 2011 at 04:57:47 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think so. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden

            The districts worked out fine with the unrevised data for population equality, so I doubt the numbers are different.
            I just didn't know the revised data had election results included, to be honest.

            •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              BTW, your Philly and Jeff's Philly are fairly different. Are you working on different iterations of the plan, or was this just one of the areas that you said could be off?

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Thu Dec 15, 2011 at 11:01:18 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm sure his is right. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                andgarden, MichaelNY

                I was sketching out the inner Philly area relatively quickly because I didn't want to waste hours on going precinct-by-precinct in districts where it doesn't matter whatsoever anyway. My rough shape is right, but in Philly even slight differences can make a relatively huge difference (whether you tap a black or white row of blocks, for instance). For any district that's not Brady, Fattah or to a lesser degree Schwartz (her Philly border might be slightly off, but probably not by much) it's safe to rely on my numbers.

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