Tim Kaine
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 12/10-12. Virginia voters. MoE ±4.0% (
7/21-24 in parentheses):
Tim Kaine (D): 47 (46)
George Allen (R): 42 (43)
Undecided: 11 (11)
Tim Kaine (D): 49 (47)
Jamie Radtke (R): 33 (31)
Undecided: 19 (22)
The polling for the Virginia Senate race, between two well-known statewide figures in a very swingy and evenly-split state, has been one of the most stable and consistent races in the country so far. Former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine and former Republican Sen. George Allen have almost always polled within a point or two of each other, in not just PPP's previous polls but almost everyone else's too. So, some movement, any movement, in the race is newsworthy; today, the beneficiary is Kaine, who now leads by five. (Kaine also blows out random teabagger Jamie Radtke, who, trailing Allen 67-5 in the primary, has turned into a total non-factor in the race.)
Has anything happened that would explain this? Kaine and Allen debated several weeks ago, and by most media accounts, Kaine turned in a strong performance. However, it may have more to do with seemingly-improving generic fortunes for the Democrats in Virginia, a state where demographic trends work in our favor and with one of the nation's strongest economies (thanks to its proximity to the federal government and the defense industry); the same sample had an improvement of several points for Barack Obama as well vis-a-vis his Republican opponents, with better standing among independents. Here, Kaine's now up among indies by a 43-39 margin, as opposed to a 50-41 Allen lead among indies in February.
PPP doesn't break its sample down into various regions of the state (something Quinnipiac does, for instance), but they did something interesting here: They asked respondents whether they consider themselves southerners. Sixty-six percent of Virginians do identify that way, and they favor Allen 47-41; by contrast, only 34 percent do not, but they favor Kaine by a remarkable 61-29. I suspect the latter are heavily in northern Virginia, precisely the part of the state that's growing rapidly and economically booming. (The cultural border strikes me as being around Fredericksburg, which is where northern Virgianians tend to go for a day trip to the "South.") This little data kernel may be some of the best evidence we've seen of the demographic shift that's transforming Virginia into a swing state and, maybe not too far off, a light-blue state.