"Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house ... not a pollster was stirring ..."
Last week, things looked awfully bleak in the House of Newtie. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who jumped to a double-digit lead in polling for the Republican presidential nomination during the early part of December, appeared to be giving it all back as the battle headed towards Iowa.
This week, if the data is any indication, Gingrich was able to bounce off of the mat. His standing in the daily national tracking poll conducted by Gallup has stabilized, and the week ended with Gingrich staked to a narrow lead in that particular survey. State polling put Gingrich in front in New York and Virginia, and still within striking distance in Iowa. More importantly, there was scant evidence that GOP voters had elected to embrace Mitt Romney, who still seems incapable of breaking a ceiling of 25 percent of the vote nationally.
Meanwhile, new polling hinted at tossups in two closely-watched Senate seats, and the Republicans got an unexpected early Redistmas present from the lone Independent member of the New Jersey redistricting commission.
All that (and ... well, y'know) in the Christmas Eve edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: Two major themes asserted themselves this week in the polling for the GOP presidential sweepstakes. Both of them were, essentially, things we already knew. So, for all intents and purposes, this was a case of conventional wisdom congealing a bit further.
Theme #1 was the hardening realization that Iowa looks to be an absolute coinflip in slightly over a week. Virtually every poll this week from the heartland hinted at a legitimate three-way contest between Ron Paul (who actually led in the majority of said polls), Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney. Some pollsters even hinted that there may be other names in the fray, with Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry getting some pollster love this week in Iowa.
Theme #2 is all about Mitt Romney. With all the talk about Newt Gingrich's Icarus-like crashing towards Earth last week, a fact that largely went underreported in the traditional press was the fact that any diminishing of support for Gingrich was most assuredly not being matched to a reassessment of Mitt Romney by the GOP electorate. Outside of a few polls here and there, there has been no real rise in support for Romney over the past few weeks. The tightening of polls, both nationally and in state-to-state polling, has come from Gingrich's backslide.
What's more, there was a bit of evidence this week to suggest that the Gingrich swoon has levelled off. In the Gallup daily tracking poll of the GOP race this week, Gingrich (who had dropped 14 percent in less than two weeks), more or less held steady. Indeed, his lead at the end of the week over Romney was incrementally larger than his lead at the start of the week. Ron Paul's support has also inched upward, but not enough nationally to put him into a clearly defined first-tier.
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo): Gingrich 30, Romney 30, Paul 15, Bachmann 7, Perry 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (CBS News): Gingrich 20, Romney 20, Paul 10, Perry 6, Bachmann 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
NATIONAL (CNN): Gingrich 28, Romney 28, Paul 14, Bachmann 8, Perry 7, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Gingrich 25, Romney 23, Paul 12, Perry 8, Bachmann 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (PPP): Gingrich 35, Romney 22, Paul 11, Bachmann 7, Perry 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 3, Johnson 1
NATIONAL (Reason/Rupe): Gingrich 27, Romney 25, Paul 7, Bachmann 6, Perry 5, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2, Johnson 1
NATIONAL (YouGov): Gingrich 27, Romney 21, Paul 13, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 6, Perry 5, Santorum 4, Johnson 1
GEORGIA (Mason Dixon): Gingrich 43, Romney 21, Perry 7, Paul 4, Bachmann 3, Huntsman 2, Santorum 1
IOWA (American Research Group): Paul 21, Romney 20, Gingrich 19, Perry 9, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 6, Santorum 4, Roemer 1
IOWA (Insider Advantage): Paul 24, Romney 18, Perry 16, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 10, Huntsman 4, Santorum 3
IOWA (Iowa State U.): Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11, Bachmann 7, Santorum 5, Huntsman 0
IOWA (PPP): Paul 23, Romney 20, Gingrich 14, Bachmann 10, Perry 10, Santorum 10, Huntsman 4
IOWA (Rasmussen): Romney 25, Paul 20, Gingrich 17, Perry 10, Santorum 10, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 4
IOWA (We Ask America--R): Paul 19, Romney 18, Gingrich 16, Bachmann 15, Perry 11, Santorum 9, Huntsman 4
NEVADA (Univ. of Nevada/LVRJ): Romney 33, Gingrich 29, Paul 13, Bachmann 5, Huntsman 3, Perry 3, Santorum 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 35, Paul 19, Gingrich 17, Huntsman 13, Bachmann 5, Santorum 3, Perry 2
NEW JERSEY (Rutgers/Eagleton): Romney 28, Gingrich 20, Paul 5, Bachmann 2, Christie 2, Bloomberg 1, Huntsman 1, Santorum 1
NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Gingrich 29, Romney 26, Paul 9, Huntsman 5, Bachmann 4, Santorum 3, Perry 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (Clemson): Gingrich 38, Romney 21, Paul 10, Bachmann 5, Perry 5, Huntsman 3, Santorum 2
SOUTH CAROLINA (Insider Advantage): Gingrich 31, Romney 19, Bachmann 8, Paul 7, Perry 5, Huntsman 4, Santorum 4
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Gingrich 30, Romney 25, Paul 9, Bachmann 6, Perry 6, Huntsman 4, Santorum 3
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: All things considered, this was a pretty damned good polling week for Barack Obama when paired with his potential GOP rivals. Aside from one matchup with one pollster (Obama-Romney, PPP), Obama either is tied or leading in every national poll this week. What's more, a new poll in swing-y Nevada gave the president leads of no less than six points. If there is a lowlight in the state-by-state polling, it is Quinnipiac giving Mitt Romney a narrow lead over Obama in Virginia, a state carried by the president in 2008. Also, while Georgia might only be on the periphery as far as 2012 targets are concerned, the margins there have to be a little dispiriting for Team Obama, which came within five points of carrying the state in 2008.
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo): Obama tied with Romney (47-47); Obama d. Paul (49-44); Obama d. Gingrich (51-43)
NATIONAL (CNN): Obama d. Romney (52-45); Obama d. Paul (52-45); Obama d. Gingrich (56-40); Obama d. Perry (57-39); Obama d. Bachmann (57-38)
NATIONAL (Gallup): Obama d. Romney (50-48); Obama d. Gingrich (50-48)
NATIONAL (PPP): Romney d. Obama (47-45); Obama d. Paul (46-41); Obama d. Gingrich (49-44); Obama d. Bachmann (50-41); Obama d. Perry (50-40)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (44-41); Obama d. Santorum (47-37); Obama d. Gingrich (48-37); Obama d. Bachmann (48-35)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (47-40); Obama d. Gingrich (50-37)
GEORGIA (Mason Dixon): Romney d. Obama (55-38); Gingrich d. Obama (50-41)
NEVADA (Univ. of Nevada/LVRJ): Obama d. Romney (46-40); Obama d. Paul (45-36); Obama d. Gingrich (47-35); Obama d. Santorum (49-31); Obama d. Huntsman (49-30); Obama d. Perry (51-31); Obama d. Bachmann (50-27)
NEW JERSEY (Rutgers/Eagleton): Obama d. Romney (51-32); Obama d. Paul (50-29); Obama d. Gingrich (54-27);
NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (53-35); Obama d. Gingrich (55-32)
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Romney d. Obama (44-42); Obama d. Gingrich (46-41)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: If two polls released this week are dead-on (and, of course, there is that rather important matter of statistical margin of error), then two of the more high-profile races for the Senate in November will flip to the other side. Barely.
Case in point: a new poll conducted for the open-seat battle in Nevada gave Democrat Shelley Berkley the narrowest of edges (44-43) over incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller. The poll, conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal by UNLV, showed that Berkley's lead is being fueled by a huge edge in populous Clark County (51-37), which is her home base. Team Heller actually cited that aspect of the poll as good news, pointing out that their candidate (who represented upstate Nevada in the House before being appointed to the Senate last year) has never had to actively campaign in the Vegas media market.
The other example of a potential pickup was found this week in a new poll for what is arguably the most-watched Senate race of the cycle: Virginia. A week after PPP gave Democrat Tim Kaine the first semi-legitimate lead for either candidate in the race (a five-point edge), the Q poll reversed course, as they staked Republican George Allen to the narrow advantage. Quinnipiac had Allen with 44 percent, narrowly ahead of Kaine, who they found with 42 percent.
Finally, in the department of "polls barely worth mentioning", a new MIRS poll in Michigan claimed that former Rep. Pete Hoekstra had a dominant lead over the field in the GOP primary. While that certainly is plausible, the numbers in the poll? Not so much: the poll claimed that Hoekstra had 84 percent, with Randy Hekman at 10 percent and right-wing darling Clark Durant in last at 6 percent. Which, with some simple addition, tells us the big problem with that poll. Yep, MIRS wants you to believe that, more than half a year out from the primary, there are simply no undecideds in the GOP primary in Michigan. Let's be charitable and say that MIRS' assessment of the race is ... um ... doubtful.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- It looks like the general election matchup in New Jersey is already starting to become apparent. The scuttlebutt in the Garden State is that the field on the GOP side is being cleared out for state senator Joseph Kyrillos, who is expected to announce his bid to take on Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez after the holidays. Menendez has long been seen as a second-tier target for the GOP, an incumbent with middling approval numbers but in a state that is likely to lean to the Democrats in a presidential turnout year.
- It hasn't been a good month for Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown. Polls over the past several weeks have shown him falling behind Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren. And now, this McNugget of greatness from a diarist at Blue Mass Group: a quote from Brown, then a state senator, lauding the exit from office of then-Gov. Mitt Romney in Massachusetts. Brown was trying to put a positive spin about the incoming administration of Deval Patrick, saying he would no longer have to "carry the water" for a Republican governor. Who may well be his party's presidential nominee. Whoopsie!
- If you were wondering who is the biggest target of outside right-wing groups is this cycle on the Senate side, Amanda Terkel had the answer this week. It is Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has already been the target of nearly $3 million in spending. Of that rather eye-popping sum, more than half of it has come from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: There are no horse-race polls for the House this week, and that might actually be telling. You will recall that last week, Daily Kos/SEIU commissioned a poll for next month's special election in Oregon's 1st district. That led to some bitching from the campaign from Republican nominee Rob Cornilles, who trailed in said poll by eleven points. But, as often is the case, the bleating from team Cornilles raised a simple question: if this poll is so awful and librully biased, where is your contradictory evidence? Needless to say, there was no press release this week from the Cornilles campaign, the Oregon GOP, or the NRCC this week to counter the PPP poll.
As for actual polls, the only ones this week were of the "generic Congressional ballot" variety. One, from our polling pals at PPP, gave the Democrats a two-point edge over the GOP (46-44). As they almost always do, the folks at the House of Ras went the other direction, giving the GOP a three-point edge (43-40).
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- It looks like the redistricting commission in New Jersey has given the GOP an early Redistmas present, as Independent member John Farmer sided with the GOP and picked their congressional map instead of the one forwarded by the Democrats. The net result was, instead of a fair fight district between a Republican and a Democrat, the state's contraction of one congressional district will come entirely from the Democratic side. In theory, the GOP map claims a "fair fight" district, but that would be like claiming a boxing match between Manny Pacquiao and ... well ... me was an example of a "fair fight". The "fair fight district" between Republican Scott Garrett and Democrat Steve Rothman was fought almost entirely on Garrett's turf, and went for McCain in a lopsided 2008 election in New Jersey. One of our Daily Kos Elections community members, Twohundertseventy, crunched the numbers in a diary on Friday.
- There was quite a bit more on the redistricting front this week. The mother of all gerrymanders in Pennsylvania got a huge boost from, of all things, a trio of Democratic congressmen. The three Democrats, all of whom got favorable maps in some shape or form, agreed to whip Democratic votes in the state House after the map damned near failed to pass in the Senate. Other states moved towards passage of their news maps, with the commission in Rhode Island passing a map that deviated little from their previous map. Mississippi now has a map, courtesy of a court-drawn remap which does not look to change the partisan prospects in any of the four districts in the Magnolia State. The independent redistricting panel in Arizona, back to work after the machinations of Republican Gov. Jan Brewer were decisively smacked down in court, released a new map that largely resembled their first effort: four GOP locks, two Democratic locks, and three "fair fight" seats. One state's redistricting effort did get derailed this week: Connecticut. That process now goes to court, but there is nothing to gain for Democrats here, as they already control all five seats in the delegation.
- Hard as it may be to believe, this week will bring the first filing deadline of the 2012 cycle for the House. That will, occur, as it has for the last few cycles, in Illinois. At the link, you can keep track of the filings, which included on Friday the long anticipated primary challenge to Jesse Jackson Jr. by former Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Well, this is a first. There aren't any polls this week at the statehouse level. But for those who desperately need a numerical fix of the statehouse variety, here is an update from Wisconsin on the progress in gathering signatures for the four Republican state senators who may face recalls next year.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Chalk up another name-brand Democrat in Wisconsin who might be interested in challenging GOP Gov. Scott Walker should he face an expected recall election next year. Doug LaFollette, the longtime Secretary of State in the Badger State, signalled some interest in a bid this week. Among other Democratic luminaries that haven't slammed the door on the prospect yet: Milwaukee Mayor (and 2010 Democratic nominee) Tom Barrett, and longtime Democratic Rep. Dave Obey.
- In the open-seat gubernatorial battle in New Hampshire, it was a case of one-in and one-out this week. Democrats picked up a potential candidate in attorney and former ambassador Terry Shumaker, and lost a potential candidate when former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand took a new gig at the University of New Hampshire that seems likely to preclude him from running for governor. Democrats already have a credible candidate in the mix in the person of former state senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan.
- Democrats, meanwhile, may have a fairly legitimate candidate to field in a potential longshot race in Utah. Real estate developer and veteran Peter Cooke signalled this week that he was a probable entrant into the Utah gubernatorial race. That may well matter, even in uber-red Utah, because incumbent Republican Gov. Gary Herbert is under all kinds of fire within his own party, and is no lock to be the eventual nominee of his own party.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
No matter what happens this week, we could see a new "Air Ball" champion crowned. All four nominees are newcomers to the contest. We also get our first group entry into the "Air Ball" mix!
- State Sen. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA): This one actually happened late in the week last week, but it merits (at minimum) a nomination. As many of you already know, the Obama administration's decision to restrict access to Plan B contraception caused no small amount of controversy, and earned criticism from many corners of the Democratic party. One of the critics was Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell. Her condemnation of the decision coaxed Baumgartner, the most prominent Republican to have declared a Senate bid against Cantwell, to say something exceptionally stupid. His take? Cantwell has no business having an opinion on Plan B. Because she isn't married. And has no kids.
- "The Pennsylvania Three (or is it Four?)": Crap like this is why good people hate politics and politicians. So, one of the most godawful gerrymanders constructed this year passed this week in the Keystone State. The GOP runs all three levers of power there, so no big surprise. What was a surprise, and a mighty unpleasant one at that, was seeing at least three (and possibly four) Democratic House members whipping votes for this pile of shitty cartography. Why would these Democrats be securing their own long spell in the minority? Because, of course, the map was beneficial to them personally. The offending three: Reps. Bob Brady, Jason Altmire, and Mike Doyle. Also possibly a suspect: Rep. Tim Holden, given that some of the legislative votes that ran up the score for the map came from his territory. Appalling.
- Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA): About the only good news that the flagging campaign of Santorum has seen in the past couple of weeks has been the news on Tuesday that he was being endorsed by influential Iowa GOPer Bob Vander Plaats, who gave current GOP Gov. Terry Branstad one hell of a fight in the 2010 GOP primaries. It took all of about 48 hours to find out how Santorum scored such a jewel: he bought it. Vander Plaats made clear that if he were to endorse Santorum, he would need money to "promote" said endorsement. Come to think of it, should Santorum be the nominee, or Vander Plaats?!
- Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI): So apparently the veteran right-winger from Wisconsin has an opinion about certain aspects of First Lady Michelle Obama's anatomy. Ironically, this also clarified for us who may well be the biggest ass(hole) in Washington DC.