Ron "I did not write that newsletter" Paul (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)
Nate Silver
points out a potential flaw in
the latest CNN poll: CNN limited its survey to currently registered Republicans.
What’s wrong with using a list of Republican voters for a Republican caucus poll? The answer is that it’s extremely easy for independent and Democratic voters to register or re-register as Republicans at the caucus site. Historically, a fair number of independent voters do this.
According to entrance polls in Iowa in 2008, for instance, about 15 percent of participants in the Republican caucus identified themselves as independents or Democrats on the way into the caucus site.
CNN's survey put Mitt Romney at 25% and Ron Paul at 22%. As Nate points out (and PPP's newest survey reveals), failing to account for potential Democratic and independent voters understates Ron Paul's support—so Paul may actually be ahead of Romney (as PPP indicated). But whether or not Paul wins Iowa, he's never going to be the Republican nominee, so the most interesting question about Iowa will be where Mitt Romney finishes—and which Not Romney(s) emerge with their campaigns intact.
Whether Romney finishes first or second (or perhaps even third), the first question I'll have is whether he does better than he did in 2008, when he received 25% of the vote in Iowa's caucuses—30,021 votes. If he isn't able to improve on that performance, it will be a pretty clear demonstration of the weakness of his campaign. Romney may be all that Republicans have got, but if he can't even match his 2008 support, it'll be obvious that he's not what they want.