This is a diary for quick translation of various Arabic sources with up-to date confirmed as well as unconfirmed information about the ongoing demonstrations in the Arab world. You can find previous Arab sources diary here, here and here.
These sources include phone conversations with Egyptian friends, the facebook Rassd News Network which seems to be coordinating some of the demonstrations in central Cairo. Other sources include forums associated with various Muslim Brotherhood affiliated political parties.
I don't expect the Egyptian revolution to be successful in the sense of affecting regime change (or even removing Mubarak--simply a regime figurehead--before the term of his presidency ends). The regime in Egypt is essential for the implementation and veracity of US-Saudi policy in the Middle East. A policy developed during the cold war and which remains in place.
A couple of points.
- The methods used to attack the demonstrators in midan at-tahrir in Cairo over night are not new to this regime. They have been used on many occasions over the past decades: During parliamentary elections and in fact during any political occasion organized by the opposition. The use of horses (ridiculous use of camels) and armed paid thugs to disrupt demonstrations and opposition gatherings is not novel for this regime. We've seen it many times and there have been numerous killings over the years as a result. These methods essentially are the way that the regime has maintained fear on the streets during the many long decades of explicit and solid US support.
- There are two kinds of organized opposition groupings in these events. Those belonging to small official opposition parties who participate in parliament and the Muslim Brotherhood. Of course, my guess is that most of the protestors belong to neither. However, over the last two days it has been apparent that the Muslim Brotherhood has by far the more talented leadership and is better organization. The transition program proposed by the Muslim Brotherhood is coherent. Further, the minor party spokesmen seem to be fixated on squabbles, parliamentary point scoring, and lack the intellectual talent of the Muslim Brotherhood.
- Mass demonstrations are planned for Friday afternoon after prayers. I think that there is a need for a major speech by Obama addressing the demonstrators. In this regard there are a number of points to keep in mind:
- People are indeed trying to get a feel for where the US stands in all of this. The message is being heard and people have perceived a shift in US policy. This was clear for example in Azmi Bishara's analysis which I translated in this thread. And which surprised me. Noting of course that the Muslim Brotherhood has carefully listened to Azmi Bishara's analysis throughout these events. In particular, his call for them to develop a transition program.
- Perceiving a shift is not enough given that this has been a client regime that the US has supported over the decades despite the fact that it repressed its people using the same methods they are using now.
- The priority is to safeguard the demonstrators and afford them protection in some way. One does this by telling the truth. The attack on the demonstrators by thugs was organized by the government. They have used these methods for decades. This is not new. Hopefully, it should be made clear that we know who the attackers are and that it is unacceptable for the regime to use these methods.
- Israel in all this does not matter nor does its stated interests. If Obama repeats the scribble that he tried to sell the Arab and Muslim world in his Cairo speech about Israel, then the reaction to anything he says will be seen as pro-regime and anti-Democracy.
There needs to be a single visionary message. Progressive Americans can do the Arab world a favor by demanding that the administration call for, unconditionally:
Free and Fair Elections in Egypt
Full-on democracy. Now.
Update: Ahmad Shafiq Egyptian prime minister who, should Mubarak resign, constitutionally becomes caretaker president will appear on TV later today. (recall opposition transition program (not Muslim Brotherhood) has Shafiq as transitionary president. Muslim Brotherhood wants head of constitutional court. [He gives a speech whitewashing the attack by thugs. calls it the hight of democracy]