Alright, you guys might have something here similar to this but I thought I'd throw one of my hobbies (fantasy sports) into the fray. Here is how points will be accumulated (if this is big, could need more help in orchestrating this):
If you correctly get the candidate's place - +10 points
If you correctly guess someone's percentage but not place - +5 points
If you correctly get both - +15 points
If you correctly guess who drops out - +5 points
Tiebreaker is:
How many times is the name "Mike Huckabee" mentioned on CNN's broadcast (I like King's interactive map way too much)? I'll keep track of this. Closest ones get a bonus point.
Prize is a hearty congrats.
My ballot:
Rick Santorum - 23%
Ron Paul - 22%
Mitt Romney - 21%
Rick Perry - 14%
Newt Gingrich - 10%
Michele Bachmann - 6%
Jon Huntsman, Jr - 2%
Buddy Roemer - 2%
Bachmann drops out. Huckabee - 20 times.
__________
Now my thoughts on how everything affects this are such:
Newt Gingrich is as shrewd and vicious as they come. He doesn't strike me as a guy that would just give up without seeking revenge. I truly think he's the most arrogant, mean-spirited candidate we've seen in modern day politics. I bet he goes to New Hampshire and just continues piling on Romney in an attempt to sabotage the race for him. Newt knows he won't win, I believe, but I do believe he thinks he has enough power to change the race.
Rick Perry tebows his way to South Carolina as he realizes that his ceiling there is the same as the amount of fingers on his right hand. South Carolina is a state where dirty politics seem to be more common than a Kardashian wedding. He has the money and I could see him throwing everything he has into it. The Tebow comparison also looks more apt as Tim starts out winning but all the "oops"s turn into huge losses against much more prepared teams.
Ron Paul will just do what he normally does and his supporters will blast Mr. Know It All by his latest supporter.
Mitt Romney will start facing attacks from Gingrich in Iowa and Perry in South Carolina. It might hurt him a bit from the neocon side of the aisle, however, it'll be the same criticism he has heard since 2008. Jon Huntsman Jr. just can't get enough traction to make a serious move.
Rick Santorum gets a small boost from his Iowa win and the drop out of Bachmann. However, his lack of organization and having only a week or so to tour NH/SC hurts him. Santorum's "strength", besides being batshit crazy, is that he appears very down-to-Earth to the pro-lifers. But he won't have time to pull off the finishing kick in any other big state. I'm not buying that he's done but I'm not sure if he can even get to Huckabee's 13% in 2008.
I just wanted to mention Buddy Roemer.
I do have to wonder though, how would Herman Cain fare if he stayed in the race and would Pawlenty have had his moment in the sun?