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This diary will lay out my race ratings for all 435 House of Representatives districts for the 2012 elections.  This election cycle brings us the added bonus of being a redistricting cycle, so many house districts still have not been finalized, but where states have either completed redistricting or their draft maps are likely to be final I went ahead and added them to the map courtesy of jeffmd and the rest of the DKE crew using google maps.  I also made a few assumptions about states such as New York where redistricting is up in the air which I will explain after the fold.  Finally, I won't be providing analysis for all 435 races, but only the most competitive ones or where I think explanation is necessary.

Photobucket

Link to map (rather large file)

This table should be pretty easy to follow; All 435 districts are presented as being either Safe, Likely, or Leans for one party (subjective) or a toss up.  District names are color coded by the current party in control: Blue is Democratic, Red is Republican, Black is a new district from reapportionment, and Purple means that a Democratic and Republican incumbent are running here.  Note: In New York I eliminated NY-09 (Bob Turner) and NY-23 (Ann Marie Buerkle) so all the districts move down a number after 8 and down 2 after 23.

Quick Summary
After allotting all of the Leaning or stronger seats by party I came up with:
198 Democratic, 12 Toss Up, 225 Republican
I would predict that ultimately all of those 423 leaning or stronger seats would fall to the assigned party, except for WV-01 which I think Dems will pick up.  After that I think that the following toss up seats will be won by Dems:
CA-21, CO-03, CO-06, FL-25, IL-13, TX-23, and WI-07

Republicans will win:
CA-52, NV-03, NC-11, OH-06, and OH-16

The net result will be that Democrats pick up 13 seats and fall 12 short of flipping the house.

Redistricting Assumptions
First off, several states have not finalized redistricting, although I added a few to the map already.  A couple of other states have released drafts which are almost certain to become law, but have not yet been added to DKE's google maps collection due to their recentness.

These states are: Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia.

I have already added New Mexico, Texas, Washington, and West Virginia.  Furthermore, I would have gone ahead with adding Arizona, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Tennessee if they were available in google maps yet because they are not likely to be changed from the current or draft maps, or at least their changes won't have significant partisan implications.

Going do the list:
In Arizona I'm assuming the Independent Redistricting Commission's map becomes finalized.

In Connecticut the Special Master is tasked by the state Supreme Court with drawing a least change map, which is unlikely to change the partisan makeup of the districts.

In Florida I based my ratings off of the initial State Senate draft which was previously reviewed on DKE.  I realize this map could easily be struck down under the Fair Districting Amendment or potentially even the VRA (although unlikely), but for the time being I rated the districts as presented in this map.

In Kansas I imagine the Republicans, who control the trifecta, will want to shore up vulnerable freshman Rep. Kevin Yoder in the Obama-won 3rd district.  The other 3 districts won't be at risk from doing so if they're remotely competent (or shameless).

In Kentucky I am assuming that an incumbent protection map will be drawn, which obviously explains why I listed all 6 districts as safe for the incumbent party.

In Minnesota I am assuming that the court-drawn map will not endanger either Tim Walz or Erik Paulsen, and that Chip Cravaack's district will be at least as Democratic if not more than currently.

In New Hampshire I am assuming a least change map since the deviation was 254 people between the 2 districts.

New Mexico's court-drawn map is practically the finalized map (the redistricting tracker says incomplete but that might be because potential appeals could still be filed).

New York was the toughest one because of the complex relationship Andrew Cuomo has with legislative Democrats.  He has promised to veto any maps (which I hope comes to pass), but I am assuming that is a bargaining position for the time being.  I assumed that NY Dems settle for a least changes map protecting a few of their incumbents while eliminating 2 Republicans, Bob Turner and Ann Marie Buerkle.  Really though, I am uncertain of what will actually happen here, so this is the most tentative set of ratings.

In Rhode Island I assumed that the changes would involve shoring up David Cicilline slightly, but few large-scale changes.

In Tennessee I assumed the recently released draft map is fairly close to the final version.

In Texas I simply gave ratings for the San Antonio court's interim map because I don't know what the US Supreme Court will do, although I can't imagine drastic changes or them implementing the legislature's illegal maps.

In Virginia I'm assuming Republicans will be successful in drawing their own map that solidifies the current 8-3 delegation.  I'm hoping the state Dems can force legal action to send the map to court, in which case the 4th district becomes safe Dem, but I won't hold my breath.

In Washington state I'm assuming that the bipartisan commission map that Tim Ceis stupidly agreed to will be the final outcome.

And finally, in West Virginia I'm assuming that the state leg will pass minor changes to correct the population deviation from the plan that the courts recently suspended.  If by some miracle they actually pass something other than least change, then the 1st district will undoubtedly be made more competitive.

Individual District Analysis

In this section I'll review the 30 districts I rated as Lean D, Lean R, or Toss Up, but I'll be glad to discuss other seats in the comments.

Lean Democratc
AZ-01: This seat was recently vacated by incumbent Republican Paul Gosar.  Former incumbent Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is running again and has posted strong fundraising numbers.  Coupled with the district shifting 4% to the left and this district should flip.

AZ-09: This district is a new seat in the Phoenix area that is roughly D+2 or so after accounting for McCain's home-state advantage.  A solid Dem candidate like Kyrsten Sinema should be slightly favored to pick up this seat.

CA-07: Dan Lungren barely won in 2008 and was held to high single digits by well-funded opponent Ami Bera in 2010.  Bera is seeking a rematch and has outraised the incumbent.  The district also became a few points more Democratic and coupled with presidential turnout should give Bera the edge.

CA-26: This D+3 seat recently opened up when incumbent Elton Gallegly decided to retire.  Republicans have strong candidates in Linda Parks and Tony Strickland, but the Dem lean and presidential turnout should give the eventual Dem nominee the advantage.

CA-31: This seat is being vacated by incumbent Joe Baca to run in the much safer 35th so it's technically a Dem held seat, but should be a Dem hold for the same reasons as the previous 2 seats.

CT-05: This seat is being vacated to Chris Murphy to replace Droopy the Dog in the Senate, but Dems have a strong, well-funded candidate in CT House Speaker Chris Donovan.  Money + D+2 seat + Presidential turnout in a blue state = Dem Hold

IL-12: This open D+2 seat saw a surprising lack of prominent Democrats announce after incumbent Rep. Jerry Costello retired, but Republicans also failed to land a strong candidate.  Nevertheless, likely Dem nominee Brad Harriman is decent enough and should be able to hold this seat for Team Blue with native son Obama at the top of the ticket.

MN-08: This traditionally Democratic seat was an upset pick up for incumbent Chip Cravaack when he won in 2008, but an improved electoral environment of 2012 and the district's strongly DFL lean should be enough to send him packing.

NH-02: Charlie Bass barely won in 2010 to well funded progressive Dem Ann Kuster who is seeking a rematch.  She has been posting solid fundraising numbers and should be favored to win in this D+3 seat.

NM-01: Incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich is vacating to run for Senate and Dems are either looking at nominating liberal Eric Griego or conservadem Marty Chavez.  This district is D+5 by 2008 numbers and is trending Dem, so Dems should be favored to hold it in 2012 with increased Hispanic turnout.

NY-24: (Renumbered NY-26) Kathy Hochul scored an upset in early 2011 and has shown to be a strong campaigner.  Assuming that her district moves a couple of points to the left after she should hold a narrow advantage in 2012.

NC-07: Conservadem Mike McIntyre has proven to be a very popular incumbent in his district, and even though it was made moderately more Republican after redistricting, his conservative record and profile should make him the favorite to beat state Sen. David Rouzer.

PA-12: This seat will see the Dem vs. Dem battle between incumbents Jason Altmire and Mark Critz before facing a competitive race against generic Republican in the fall.  Altmire represents 2/3rds of the territory and should win the primary, which is good because he would be slightly stronger given his large crossover appeal anyway (although both their voting records are less than admirable).

UT-04: Dem incumbent Jim Matheson is one of the more conservative Dems in the house, but he has proven incredibly popular, even enough to overcome Utah's conservative lean.  This mostly new district should allow Matheson to (re-?)entrench himself here, but would be a guaranteed Republican pick up if open.

WA-01: This district was where Tim Ceis really screwed us, but at about D+2 or so Dems should be slightly favored to hold it, especially against wacko tea partier John Koster.  Hopefully Dems nominate Suzan DelBene who nearly knocked off Rep. Dave Reichert in the politically similar 8th in 2010 given her strong performance in such an unfavorable environment.

Lean R

AR-01: This district is traditionally Dem, but moving away from the party and a particularly tough pick up with Obama being a drag at the top of the ticket.  Nevertheless, Rick Crawford isn't a necessarily strong incumbent, but Dems can't beat him without a decent candidate.

AR-04: Mike Ross really screwed us by lobbying for his district to be weakened and then retiring, sending this seat zooming from safe D to lean R.  This seat is fairly similar to the 1st, but the Republican candidate has been raising tons of money while Dems are struggling to find a 1st tier candidate.

CA-10: Jeff Denham's district became considerably more Democratic during redistricting but still leans slightly Republican.  However, Dems landed a strong candidate here and Denham seems pretty poor at campaigning (he spent more on a $100k+ fundraiser than he took in... need I say more) so Dems could have a shot here.

FL-02: Rep. Steve Southerland was seriously hurt by the FL GOP state Senate draft which made his district less Republican.  This seat is home to many Blue Dog type Democratic voters and Democrats have a solid bench, meaning Southerland is quite vulnerable.

GA-12: Conservadem John Barrow was royally screwed with during redistricting, seeing his district become ~10% more Republican.  The only thing giving him a shot here is his strongly Blue Dog profile and history of crossover appeal, but Republicans can be guaranteed to go after him hard in this seat.

IN-02: Republicans made this district more conservative during redistricting, prompting Rep. Joe Donnelly to run for senate.  Wacky Jackie Walorski, who nearly knocked off Donnelly in 2010 is running for the seat again, and while Dems have a decent candidate whose name escapes me, the lean of the seat plus the Obama campaigns likely abandonment of Indiana (compared to 2008 at least) mean this seat leans R.

IN-08: In a bit of surprising timidity by Republicans during this redistricting cycle, the 8th district was actually made about 1% more Democratic, and Dem nominee Dave Crooks should easily be competitive with Rep. Larry Buschon, but I'm not ready to call this a toss up yet given the red hue of the district.

IA-03: This seat combines the districts of 'moderate' Republican Tom Latham, and moderate Democrat Leonard Boswell, in a PVI-even seat.  However, while Latham only represents a small fraction of the district and Boswell has represented much of it currently or previously, Latham has been absolutely crushing Boswell at fundraising.  Boswell also has had close calls in 2006 of all years, which leads me to give a slight edge to Latham, although DCCC millions might save Boswell here.

IA-04: Raving lunatic Steve King saw his district become significantly more Democratic and is facing the very well funded former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack.  Hopefully Vilsack will be the first woman represented by Iowa in congress, but the district is still about R+4.

MI-01: Tea Partier Dan Benishek won by 15 votes in the 2010 primary, and this seat is traditionally Democratic and is only slightly more conservative than the nation by 2008 numbers.  However this region has been moving away from Dems even as Michigan has been moving towards us, so Benishek has the slight edge over 2010 opponent Gary McDowell.

NH-01: Frank Guinta holds a fairly marginal but longtime Republican district and has a pretty decent fundraising record.  Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter was always a weak candidate and Dems will need a stronger campaigner than she to win the seat in 2012.

NJ-05: This is another seat where Dems got the shaft in redistricting.  This seat was supposed to be a fair fight between incumbent Scott Garrett and Dem Rep. Steve Rothman, but it's pretty much Garrett's seat.  At R+5, he should ultimately prevail, but Democrats have a good bench here so the race is competitive.

NY-12: (Renumbered NY-13) I'm assuming that Mike Grimm's district is about the same partisan wise or becomes slightly more Republican.  Grimm could be facing a rematch against former Rep. Mike MacMahon, but regardless of his opponent this light red seat should be competitive.  However this seat could change significantly in redistricting.

NY-18: (Renumbered NY-19) Nan Hayworth also holds a light red seat that I'm expecting to be about the same after redistricting, obviously the usual NY caveat applies though.  She's made a number of blunders during her term, most notably during the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, so she remains vulnerable.  So far Dems don't have any top tier candidates but that should hopefully change.

OH-07: Dems lost a good opportunity here when both former Reps John Bocieri and Zack Space declined to take on freshman Rep Bob Gibbs.  However, Gibbs seat became slightly more Democratic and contains a fair number of labor Dems who allowed Zack Space to win for 2 terms.  This one has the potential to move off the table if no strong Dem enters the race, but for now is somewhat competitive. Update: That apparently happened with the filing deadline now passed, so this one moves to Likely R.

OK-02: This was the only other seat where a retirement really screwed us.  Popular conservadem Dan Boren could have held this seat for life, but opted for the greener pastures of, well, making more money probably.  Anyway, this seat in eastern Oklahoma has long been a dixiecrat bastion but has moved sharply away from Dems over the last decade.  Still, Dems have a solid bench here so it should remain competitive, but Obama will be a big drag on the ticket.

TX-14: This seat opened up when Rep. Ron Paul announced his retirement, and with the entry of former Rep. Nick Lampson, who has represented most of the district before, Democrats are looking at a decent pick up opportunity.  This seat is unlikely to change in redistricting regardless of what happens in court, so expect Lampson to make a good showing.

WV-01: Republican David McKinley barely won in 2010 when this seat was open.  Furthermore, this seat has a very long moderate/conservative Democratic tradition which means a deep bench of decent candidates.  I expect this race to move towards Dems over the course of the cycle which is why it's the only currently Lean R race that I think we will flip.

Toss Up

CA-21: Redistricting made this seat more Republican, prompting incumbent Jim Costa to opt for the safer district next door in the 16th.  Republicans have a good candidate in David Valadao, but Democrats also have a good potential candidate in former state Senate majority leader Dean Florez.  I would expect that Florez has a narrow edge with the presidential election boosting Dem-leaning Hispanic turnout.

CA-52: Brian Bilbray's San Diego seat became slightly more Democratic and he struggled to win election in 2006 but cruised in 2008 and 2010.  I ultimately expect this seat to remain Republican due to the long Republican-friendly nature of San Diego, but Dems have a decent shot here.

CO-03: Accidental winner Scott Tipton's district became slightly more Democratic and Tipton is a fairly weak incumbent.  Dems recruited state house speaker Sal Pace who has put up pretty strong fundraising numbers so far, thus giving him a slight advantage.

CO-06: This suburban Denver seat changed dramatically during redistricting, moving from Safe R to a toss up D+1 seat that should trend our way over the decade.  Still, Mike Coffman has a lot of money in his campaign account, but Dem candidate Joe Miklosi should be able to pull off the win.

FL-25: Florida Republicans really screwed David Rivera in redistricting by moving his seat from R+5 to about R+2 or R+1.  Rivera has had a lot of ethical issues and has had pitiful fundraising.  Still, this seat contains a large portion of the heavily Republican Cuban-American community in south Miami-Dade, so it will still be tough for the eventual Dem nominee who should ultimately flip this seat.

IL-13: Tim Johnson took one for Team Red when redistricting drastically changed his seat from a safe Republican one to a Dem leaning D+2.  However, Johnson has a 'moderate' profile and has decent fundraising, but he only represents 1/4th of the new district.  With Obama at the top of the ticket the Democratic nominee should be able to prevail if he can run a viable campaign.

NV-03: Joe Heck barely won in 2010 and his new seat is only slightly less Democratic.  Unfortunately, likely Dem nominee John Oceguera has put up lackluster fundraising numbers while Heck has not, so for now I give Heck the slight advantage but this seat is about as pure of a toss up as there is.

NC-11: Consevadem Heath Shuler's seat was made several points more Republican after redistricting, and the only reason it is competitive is Shuler's strong crossover appeal.  Republicans will pour a lot of resources into flipping this seat though, and Shuler so far hasn't kept up with fundraising, so I ultimately expect him to narrowly lose.

OH-06: This traditionally labor Dem seat allong the Ohio river saw Republican Bill Johnson upset 2 term Rep. Charlie Wilson.  The seat was slightly shored up, but Wilson is seeking a rematch and should keep it competitive.  I could really see this going either way, but for now Johnson should be slightly favored.

OH-16: This seat combines Dem Betty Sutton with Republican Jim Renacci in a Republican leaning seat.  Sutton has done well in all 3 of her election campaigns and really took one for the team here.  This seat is another pure toss up, but if forced to choose I think the red lean of the seat allows Renacci to win.

TX-23: I almost want to put this as Lean D given the drastic difference presidential turnout has on the Dem-friendly Hispanic electorate here.  Still, this seat didn't get any more Democratic under the interim map, but Dems have a very strong candidate in Eric Gallego, who I expect to win in the end.

WI-07: The only reason this isn't Lean D is that Republicans gerrymandered it to become slightly more Republican friendly.  Freshman Rep. Sean Duffy has been a gaffe machine, suggesting that his $174,000 salary as a congressman made it hard to pay the bills, among others.  This seat has a 40 year history of voting Democratic and should hopefully return to the fold in 2012.

Whew, that's the last of the competitive seats.  So to summarize, Dems have 198 seats favoring them and Republicans have 225 favoring them.  I expect Democrats to net only 13 seats on election day, falling short by 12.

I'll be glad to discuss my ratings in the comments, but again I'd rather not quibble over whether a seat should be safe or likely favoring one party.  Also, redistricting in Texas, New York, and Florida is still pretty up in the air, so my ratings were totally contingent on the assumptions I made on those maps.

I'll do an update in a few weeks and in the meantime I should have a diary on my Senate ratings.

Poll

How many seats will Dems net?

7%12 votes
4%8 votes
9%15 votes
10%17 votes
17%29 votes
17%28 votes
13%22 votes
9%16 votes
3%5 votes
5%9 votes

| 162 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Nice job. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew F Cockburn, sawolf, PinHole

    This diary should be getting more attention.

    My new favorite RIGHT WING website: NewtCantWin.com It's what the RIGHT thinks of Newt! Enjoy!

    by pucklady on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:03:16 AM PST

    •  It's really really depressing (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, jncca, The BigotBasher, dc1000

      to see the long lists of uncompetitive districts on both sides and the relative handful that are in the middle. The districting laws need radical changes.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:43:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Even with perfectly nonpartisan redistricting (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, dc1000, lordpet8

        Most seats will still be very safe.

      •  Only if you want there to be a LOT (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8

        more blue dog Democrats and a lot fewer real progressives

        Follow me on Twitter @PeterFlom

        by plf515 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 04:20:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Fine with me (4+ / 0-)

          As long as the blue dogs take out more Rs than progressives, that's fine.  I think most Americans are blue dog Democrats when it comes down to it.  They sympathize with progressive ideas, but they really aren't that committed.  Committed partisans are a minority in this country, Congress should reflect the people.

          "What we really expect out of the Democrats is for them to treat us as they would liked to have been treated." --John Boehner

          by slothlax on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 06:01:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do you not understand how federalism works? (0+ / 0-)

            These representatives are accurate representatives of their districts. They do reflect their people. Are you advocating some sort of nationwide ballot? That would only represent the countries average while really being representative of very few people, not to mention the inherent lack of minority representation that would follow. Congress isn't supposed to work that way, for obvious reasons.

            (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 01:29:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  How about adding some form of (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Setsuna Mudo

        proportional representation, say 300 districts and 300 elected by party nationwide.  That has the benefit of aiding smaller parties (say, 10% of the electorate) that are too spread out to win a single district.  Almost all other industrial democracies use PR to some extent.  Our system really is antiquated.

  •  Il-12 (0+ / 0-)

    David Gill is running in the 13th.

    Chris Miller
    Brad Harriman
    Kenneth Wiezer

    are running in the Democratic primary for the 12th.

    Rodger Cook
    Theresa Kormos
    Teri Newman
    Jason Plummer

    are running in the Republican primary for the 12th.

    "Now that you find, now that you're whole, seasons will pass you by, I get up, I get down"

    by anodnhajo on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:05:31 AM PST

  •  Excellent Diary (5+ / 0-)

    and great analysis

    I'm a little more hopeful on us winning a few more seats, but nontheless I can agree with you that it will be a tough road to win control the house.

    I hope to see another updated version of this when all redistricting is complete.

    23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

    by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:13:32 AM PST

    •  Absolutely, I'll also post the big map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      I don't think photobucket was allowing it, but the one I have on my computer is over 5000x2000 pixels and is really detailed.  I think jeffmd was working on some customizable house electoral map though as well.  I simply cut and pasted the google maps of the states he did.

  •  Great work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew F Cockburn, sawolf

    Enjoyed the diary and am in agreement on about 98% of your overall rankings.

    21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:15:07 AM PST

  •  CO-06 (0+ / 0-)

    You underestimate the Republican incumbent here, unfortunately.  The portions added to his district are really his "home town." That still means something in his home town of Aurora.  Also, some of the new area was represented by Coffman when he was in the State Legislature.  Of course, all of it was represented by Coffman in his three wins for state-wide office.   I think Coffman wins here easily.  Should be at least lean Republican if not liikely.  Sorry, but the numbers don't tell the whole situation here and I think this one is a lost cause.

  •  CO 02 & 07 (0+ / 0-)

    I also think you are somewhat optimistic in these two Colorado districts listing them as sure Democratic.  In the 2nd, yes Polis has a lot of money and he does have Boulder, but he took a big hit in redistricting.  More than half the district is new to him and a lot of it is not favorable territory for him.  In my view he is more a likely Democratic seat.

    As to CO-07, I think Perlmutter is a strong candidate and has done well in his old district.  However, he too has much new territory.  He is also going to be running against Joe Coors, Jr. which is not a small name to be running against, in the home of the world's largest brewery, Coors in Golden.  That said, this is at least lean Democratic and maybe likely, but not sure by any means.

  •  You flipped Oh-06 & Oh-16 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    in the body of your post. Actually, there are a lot of factors in 16 that lean in Betty Sutton's favor. I would go the opposite way of you: if forced to pick in this toss-up race, I think Betty carries it unless 2012 turns out to be another wave Republican year, which it won't. As for Oh-07, it's too late for a strong Dem to step up; Ohio's filing deadline is past.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:42:51 AM PST

  •  some comments (0+ / 0-)

    I believe its past the time to file in OH.  No strong dems filed for OH-07.  
    NV-03 became a few points more republican.  It is now D+0.  
    The new NV-04 is D+2 and may not be quite as safe as one would think.
    IL-13 is D+1.
    CO-06 is R+1.

    •  Thanks, I'll update (0+ / 0-)

      I thought CO-06 was about 54% Obama though.

      •  CPVI (0+ / 0-)

        Well, you have to understand a little bit about how CPVI is calculated.  Saying Obama got 54% in 2008 in CO-06 when he got 53% nationwide therefore it is D+1 is not how it's calculated.

        It is the average TWO PARTY vote over the last TWO elections.  Dem two party vote over the last 2 elections is 51.3% while Republican two party vote over the last 2 elections is 48.7%.  Then you need to know the two party vote in each of the last two elections in CO-06.  Charlie Cook says that comes out to R+1.

        •  I'm not talking about cook PVI, just 2008 (0+ / 0-)

          Considering that Colorado is continuing to move to the left the Kerry numbers seem a little less important than in other states.

          It's also been 3 years since the 2008 election and I would bet that districts like CO-06, NV-03, and NV-04 will be even more Democratic compared to the nation than they were (as newly drawn) in 2008.

          •  CPVI (0+ / 0-)

            Is now the standard that congressional districts are judged by.  People are now used to these numbers and understand what they mean.  Using D+5 or R+8 is an indication you're using CPVI and it's confusing if you're not.

            There's a reason why the Cook formula uses 2 election cycles.  It smooths out the swing districts (ie districts with a lot of swing voters) and does a better job at weeding out real trends vs a single election anomaly.

            Cook has started compiling CPVIs for the new districts; I would suggest his site for your CPVI data.

  •  WV-01- Sue Thorn the candidate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MilesC

    Tim Manchin ended his flirtation with running for Congress today. That leaves Sue Thorn as the only announced Democratic candidate for the seat.

    The only question now is what WV-01 is going to look like. The redistricting plan that was thrown out last week left WV-01 the same as it had been (the main trouble with the plan was the population imbalance between WV-02 and WV-03). We in the northwest part of the state don't want to be split up.

    There are some terrible plans out there that would put part of us in a district with the eastern panhandle and part in a district that stretches down to Charleston. We would lose most of our voice.

    Sue is down in Charleston today pushing for a redistricting plan that would keep us together. We wish her the best of luck!

  •  Absolutely great diary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, sawolf

    Really good work here. Thanks!

    One question - in your opening comments, you made it sound like in New York Dems control the redistricting process. Republicans control the state Senate. Isn't the most likely outcome the elimnation of one Dem and one Republican seat?

    •  It's possible yes, but my gut feeling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      Is that with Cuomo threatening a veto the Republicans will be forced to cut at least 2 members, otherwise there is no reason for Dems to agree to a map.

      I'm really holding out hope for Mark Grisanti switching parties and us having the trifecta, but that's unlikely.

      In all honesty I don't know what the most likely outcome is, so I just went with one.

  •  Excellent work! I only have a few (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, sawolf, James Allen, lordpet8

    districts where I disagree with you. e.g, I think Shuler will win NC-11.

    Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

    by MilesC on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 12:09:12 PM PST

    •  that's gonna be tough (0+ / 0-)

      He not only went from R+6 to R+13, but he lost a lot of his base in Asheville.  I think that is more significant than the CPVI shift.

      •  But in 2010, he won other counties (0+ / 0-)

        besides Buncombe.

        Shuler basically needs to hold his 54% in the old parts of NC-11 and get about 42% in his 4 new counties.

        Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

        by MilesC on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 02:28:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  but his margin in Buncombe (0+ / 0-)

          Provided his win.  He won Buncombe by 18K votes.  His margin was 61-39.  The portion of Buncombe put in NC-10 is roughly 64-35 Obama and portion kept in NC-11 54-45 McCain.  He really lost a huge portion of his base.

          He's trading a county that went for Elaine Marshall for 4 that went to Richard Burr with 76%, 75%, 66%, and 61%.  It's a tough, tough road now.

          •  Obama and Marshall both severely (0+ / 0-)

            underperformed in the mountains.

            Shuler would have lost his new district in 2010 by about 5%.

            Still, I think a better baseline for him would be Perdue/Hagan numbers.

            Between Avery, Mitchell, Caldwell and Burke, Perdue got 37% and Hagan got 41%; McHenry's challenger also got 42%.

            In 2010, Shuler won the non-Buncombe counties in his district with 51%. If he gets that up to 54/55% and matches Hagan, he should be okay.

            Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

            by MilesC on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 04:19:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  He can win without Asheville (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MilesC

            Even in 2010 he won the parts of his old district that are now in the new district with 52%.

            The new district contains 4 counties that are even more Republican than that, but then, it won't be 2010, either.

            I think he can win. I'm just worried he won't run.

  •  Great work, sawolf (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    I'm your neigbor in NC-6/NC-4.

    Considering the success NC Republicans have had in the past at suing over Democratic redistricting plans, do you expect the current GOP gerrymander of NC to hold? I will be surprised -and disappointed - if it does.

     

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 12:29:08 PM PST

    •  Yes, because of who controls the supreme court (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83

      I suppose it might depend on the outcome of the Texas redistricting case, but any changes made the the map are liable to be minimal.

      There's a great case to be made for section 5 retrogression in the 7th and 8th districts, but those will be upheld.  There's also a great case to be made that the 12th is an illegal racial gerrymander, but since the previous one pretty much was as well I'm not holding out hope.

      I'd say the chances of us getting an entirely map are less than 5% and the chances of minor changes are less than 10%.  It's really unfortunate too, because a court-drawn or fair map would easily give us 7 seats (all incumbents stay except Miller's seat moves to the triad) at the very least.

      •  I am holding out a little more hope (0+ / 0-)

        for the State House and Senate maps - the excess dividing of counties was a reason for the 2000 map to be tossed, and the 2010 maps have far more counties divided.

        "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by bear83 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 03:35:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Iowa 3- Too gloomy a prediction here. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, James Allen, murasaki

    If Boswell can win in the heavily slanted 2010 election, he can win in 2012. If he wins Des Moines as he always has, and does well in more traditionally D Council Bluffs, he wins. The rest of the district is pretty empty, to be honest.  Latham will do well in Dallas county, but are there enough votes there to flip the district?
    Enough Iowa seniors will know that Latham voted for Ryan's plan to hang that around his neck. And he's never really blown out weak and almost non-funded candidates in his old district.

    WTF!?!?!?! When did I move to the Republic of Gilead?!

    by IARXPHD on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:44:04 PM PST

  •  RI already passed its map (0+ / 0-)

    not sure why we don't have a Google Maps version, but they scooped out Burrillville and parts of the Elmhurst area in Prov from RI-01 and added most of South Providence. I think RI-01's Obama % increased by 1 and RI-02's went down by 1.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 02:07:11 PM PST

    •  It was passed by both chambers and signed? (0+ / 0-)

      I don't recall reading anything in the daily digests about it being finalized, just that one of the state leg chambers had released maps.

      •  The redistricting commission (0+ / 0-)

        had released a number of draft maps but I remember hearing that that was the one they decided on.

        And indeed, for once my memory is right: http://tiverton.patch.com/...

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 02:17:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gotcha, they just sent it to the legislature (0+ / 0-)
          Co-chair Ucci stressed that the evening’s votes weren’t the last word.

          “We are a reporting commission to the General Assembly,” he explained during the hearing. “Our report will then be submitted in January. It will then be up to the House and Senate to take these up as legislation to go through the normal legislative process. The plan would have to pass both sides of the House and Senate and then ultimately be determined by the governor.”

          Of course it really isn't that important since there are only three states left where significant changes from the current maps or current draft maps are anything more than remote: Florida, New York, and Virginia

  •  I trust you will update your analysis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    as circumstances warrant.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 02:16:27 PM PST

  •  Excellent work n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    Follow me on Twitter @PeterFlom

    by plf515 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 04:20:17 PM PST

  •  Not following your NY CD numbering (0+ / 0-)

    I live in NY 25 for the moment.  We have a Republican (Buerkle, who you mentioned) incumbant, but NY 25 is in blue in the Safe D category?  I have a hard time putting any Upstate seat in Safe D territory, let alone one that is historically and currently Republican.

    "What we really expect out of the Democrats is for them to treat us as they would liked to have been treated." --John Boehner

    by slothlax on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:11:59 PM PST

    •  I assumed NY-23 and NY-25 were combined (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slothlax

      So that Owens gains syracuse and his seat is around 60% Obama.

      It's a pretty simple guess, because without inside knowledge I have no clue what sort of redistricting scenario is most likely in NY.  There are four probable scenarios I could think of:
      Dems lose 1, Reps lose 1, everyone is strengthened.
      Cuomo uses veto leverage to force Reps to lose both seat, Hochul is strengthened.  That's what I used in making ratings.
      Cuomo actually vetoes and we get a court-drawn map.
      Or Mark Grisanti/someone else switches parties and Dems get to gerrymander.

      •  I think you're being wildly optimistic (0+ / 0-)

        Owens only won because the GOP was spit both times.  Neither the 23rd or 25th went 60% for Obama, nor did any county in the area, and I assume his numbers will be down (especially if Romney is credible, he's exactly the kind of Republican that can do well around here).  Syracuse has been represented by Republicans in Congress for generations, with a token Democrat showing up here and there.  Maffei lost 2 out of the last three election cycles in the 25th (Syracuse), losing in the 06 landslide, winning in the 08 landslide, only to lose to an unknown in 10.  The 23rd is a rural district centered on a military installation.  Owens is the first Democrat to represent the North Country in OVER A CENTURY!  The Republican brand is way too strong in Central New York and the North Country to assume a Safe D unless the GOP self destructs.

        "What we really expect out of the Democrats is for them to treat us as they would liked to have been treated." --John Boehner

        by slothlax on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:56:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Some issues (0+ / 0-)

    There is no way it is a toss up based on who ended up filing for the Democrats.

    I don't see Betty Sutton v. Jim Renacci being a toss up.

    Kingston's seat is safe R.

    I know Lampson is popular around DKE but I don't think that seat leans R. I think it's likely R.

    I see MA-04 as safe D and MA-06 as leans D.

    I also don't see Lee Terry losing in his seat now that it has western Sarpy and not eastern Sarpy.

    I also don't think McIntyre's seat with all of its new suburban areas leans D, but you're from NC so I won't argue that with you.

    Other than that... good work. You obviously spent a lot of time on this. May I ask how you made your map?

    •  *No way IL-13 is (0+ / 0-)

      not it is. The original comment title was IL-13.

    •  Oh, and IN-08 (0+ / 0-)

      I know it's the bloody eighth, but with Obama on top of the ticket (and not in 2008), I don't see Larry Bucshon having any issues there. I'd say that is a likely R seat.

      I also think OK-02 is likely R and not leans R, but we have no track record for that seat.

      UT-04 will be very interesting and will depend on who wins the primary. I think Sandstrom would be strongest for Republicans.

      I can't wait for UT data to go up on DRA, which is apparently happening soon thanks to RogueMapper.

      •  Few more points (0+ / 0-)

        OK-2: It will be a battle between local vs federal. The district. Democrats are still a force to be reckoned with at the local level while Republicans dominate the federal level.
        I believe little dixie is still in the district.

        The district's Democratic leanings stem partly from historic migration patterns into the state. The Little Dixie region of the district imported the people and culture of southern states such as Mississippi after Reconstruction. Voter registration in Little Dixie runs as high as 90 percent Democratic.

        This race will be decided by the conservative Democrats that dominate the state. So it depends on who the Dems run.

        As for Matheson a great place to look at this race would be to go back to the 2002 race. Where Matheson faced a similar situation.
        The key factor back then was that national Republicans were more focused on defending seats, as result much of the money that was dispatched, came in too late to help Matheson's district.  I recommend you look at this study
        http://csed.byu.edu/...
        its on page 312 of the PDF

        23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

        by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 07:57:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I took screen shots of the google maps (0+ / 0-)

      that jeffmd posted on the DKE sidebar and combined them with gimp layed over google earth map of the US.  From there it was pretty simple just to fill in each district with one of the 7 rating colors.  I'll eventually add the other states as they come and then do a close up section for the NYC area.

      So for IL-13 I agree our candidates were pretty weak, but Obama didn't overperform outstate like he did in the IL suburbs.  Coupled with the fact that it's basically an open seat and it's competitive.  I would really love to see some polling here though once the Dems raise their name rec.

      Kingston seat I'll probably move to safe R, I've just had that one as likely since redistricting.

      MA-06 I'd also like to see polling since Tisei probably has pretty good name rec right now and he just posted a massive fundraising period after I published this.

      Lee Terry's seat will probably move to safe, but I'm expecting Obama to compete in Omaha, and the Dem candidates aren't total some dudes, so for now this one isn't 100% safe.

      And I fully expect McIntyre to win since he's always won reelection, except in 2010, with over 60% of the vote.  They also didn't give him the kind of suburban territory in Wake County that would be turned off by him, so unless 2012 turns out to be another R+7 election wave like 2010 I don't see how he gets below 52% or so.  His new district still has a sizable Democratic registration advantage comprised of "Jessecrats" whom McIntyre regularly wins.

    •  A few points (0+ / 0-)

      IL-13: Tim Johnson is a tough campaigner (known to personally call all off his constituents in previous campaigns) so I'm not counting him out yet. But The Dem lean of the district will play a big factor.  While he may be considered a "moderate" he still is to the right of Mark Kirk. I also don't know if being a member of the Conservative Republican Study committee will help in a D+ district. In the end it all may come down to presidential coattails. I could see this race going either way.

      I think the sutton Renacci race will come down who is the more season campaigner, and how effective Obama runs in the district

      23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

      by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 07:40:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sutton/Renacci (0+ / 0-)

        Considering McCain got 51% in a very bad year for Republicans in that seat, and that Sutton is used to holding a D+5 seat, where is her path to victory? I just don't see her winning. I'm curious to know what you think.

        Also, Johnson really did not get a legitimate opponent. He has three "some dudes" running. Unless Obama gets to like 55% in that seat, I see a combination of Johnson having enough crossover appeal and his opponent being a "some dude" as being his path to victory. Also, Republican polling is supposedly showing good news for Johnson...

        •  rookie (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson

          Renacci has yet to show that he can win in anything other than a red wave year. Sutton may be able to beat him over the head with some of the unpopular votes he's taken, including Medicare. Also, the GOP brand has declined in Ohio since Kasich took over. Not saying Sutton should be favored, but I think a tossup rating is appropriate.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 08:07:34 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Glad you're using the Google Maps! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo

    We're holding off on anything national until the lines get finalized nationwide.

    But, your map does make me really really happy!

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

    by jeffmd on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:21:00 PM PST

    •  Thanks, I have a sort of fetish for maps (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jeffmd

      So maps + politics = awesome haha

      That's how I was able to memorize all 435 house members through all the time I spent analyzing races for the last cycle.

      If I was good with graphics programming I would have compiled something along those lines since I always liked what election news sites did, such as the NY times section or CQ (Roll Call) politics with their interactive maps.

      •  Hah, I feel you. (0+ / 0-)

        It's how I stumbled on Swing State Project in the olden days!

        Are you on a Mac or PC? If PC especially, GIS may be worth looking into - there's some (free/open-source) powerful software out there.

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

        by jeffmd on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 07:16:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  PC, and I'll probably try something like that (0+ / 0-)

          If I ever get around to posting my fantasy redistricting diary on Appalachia, since cutting and pasting together multiple districts from multiple states in Dave's app gets sort of messy.

  •  OR-05, OR-01 should both be Likely Dem (0+ / 0-)

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:56:00 PM PST

    •  I think they'll be safe in 2012 with incumbents (0+ / 0-)

      Bonamici looks set to cruise over Cornilles (I know the district isn't as Dem as the old one), and Schrader won by 5% in 2010 against a well-funded challenger and his seat isn't that changed.

  •  NY-09 (0+ / 0-)

    is not Democratic anymore. Bob Turner represents it.

  •  Illinois (0+ / 0-)

    I've heard that the Democratic numbers in Illinois up and down the ballot are not as strong as you might think. Johnson will win reelection.

  •  Interesting I did my own house ratings also (0+ / 0-)

    last weekend, took forever.

  •  NM 01 (0+ / 0-)

    It should be noted and updated that Michelle Lujan Grisham is also running in NM 01.   www.MichelleLujangrisham.com

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