With 2 Californian GOP House members already retiring in 2012 and more likely to follow it is timely to have a look at the lay of the land with the entire Californian GOP House delegation.
Below the fold for my rankings (and thoughts) of the most to least likely of the 19 Californian GOP House members to retire.
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The California House delegation has 34 Democrats and 19 Republicans. Largely as a result of redistricting, it was almost inevitable that 1 or more incumbent Republicans would retire in 2012.
And lookie lookie two have already announced that they are going:
Elton Gallegly
Wally Herger
What follows is my view of the most to least likey to retire in 2012 (this predates the retirement announcements of Gallegly and Herger), as well as a list of those who are just not going to retire - uh uh no way.
The most likely to retire -
1) Jerry Lewis - As has been reported in the media Lewis will most likely announce his retirement next week. But he was always the most likely to do so IMHO. Apart from having his district carved up in redistricting Lewis made it reasonably clear that he wasn't interested! Lewis had two choices, either CA-31 where he lived (but in a Democratic leaning district), or CA-08 where most of his old district went but in a competitive primary.
Lewis will almost certainly retire.
2) David Dreier - Dreier, to my mind has always been the most likely, after Lewis, to retire. For a start his district got split into 5 different directions. The reading the media at the same time he was the last of the incumbent repubs to assert that the boundaries wouldn't stand. He didn't seem to have a plan b. That is not a great surprise as he has two choices to run in; both unpalatable. CA-32, where Dreier lives is a safe Democratic, 19% voter registration gap, 61% Obama voting district. CA-31 on the other hand is only a Democratic leaning district. With Lewis's likely retirement Dreier may jump in here but i doubt it. Why? A very poor September Quarter does not strike me as having fire in the belly.
I think Dreier retires to be honest.
3) Elton Gallegly - Yep he was only my third most likely to walk. He had two districts he could have run in CA-25 (In a barnburner Primary against Buck McKeon that he most likely would have lost) or in CA-26 a swing district that favours Democrats.
So he chose neither and opted to retire.
4) Gary Miller - I think Miller is a 50/50 chance to retire. Why? a 54K October Quarter, a monster primary against Ed Royce who btw raised 352K, for the September Quarter and has 3 Mill COH. On the other hand I could very easily be wrong as at least Miller has updated his campaign website. He may also jump into CA-31 if as expected Lewis retires.
5) Mary Bono Mack - With new hubby Rep Mack running for the Senate in Florida you could reasonably assume that Bono Mack would at least consider retiring from Congress. To be honest had she been done over by redistricting (as was mooted at the time) she probably would have walked. Now? Well a 145K September Quarter and 436K COH tells me she is most likely to stay in this district that whilst carried by Obama by 3% has a 2.5% Voter Reg gap in favour of the GOP. Oh and CA-36 was carried by Whitman by 6% in the 2010 Gubernatorial.
6) Dan Lungren - Lungrens' new district CA-07 is very much a swing district. This combined with a so so 178K September Quarter, his presumptive opponent Amerish Bera outraising him and his 14 years in Congress means there is a slight chance that Lungren might retire but that is unlikely at this point.
The next five Repubs are all long serving incumbents and as such worth keeping an eye on vis a vis retirement:
7) Wally Herger First elected in 1986 he has announced he is retiring in 2012. Yep only number 7 most likely to retire and yet he is retiring.
8) Dana Rohrabacher First elected in 1988. With a 23K September Quarter and 416K COH he is worth keeping an eye on.
9) Ken Calvert First elected in 1992 Calvert may retire, but I doubt it as a 140K September Quarter would indicate otherwise.
10) Buck McKeon Also first elected in 1992 his 240K September Quarter seems to say that he is going nowhere.
11) Ed Royce Also first elected in 1992. Monster September Quarter of 352K and 3 Mill COH
says he is running again.
The last list are those that are highly unlikely to retire (alphabetical order):
Brian Bilbray - Fought so hard to get back into Congress in 2006 Special Election. Not likely to retire.
John Campbell - Serving 4th Term why would he retire?
Jeff Denham - Freshman
Duncan Hunter Jr - Sophomore
Darrell Issa - Having too much fun chairing the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
Kevin McCarthy - Having too much fun as Majority Whip.
Tom McClintock - Only been there for 2 terms.
Devin Nunes - Only 38 years old!
So in conclusion 2 retirements already announced, with another expected next week and the likelihood of of one or more to come. Roll on election day I say!