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Leading Off:

CA-31, CA-08: It was no surprise, but it's still big news: Rep. Jerry Lewis announced his retirement from Congress on Thursday, the third California Republican to do so in less than a week. Our full post analyzing Lewis's decision can be found at Daily Kos Elections, but there's already been a bunch of subsequent fallout, affecting two districts: the 31st, which contains Lewis's home, and the 8th, which houses most of his current constituents, either one of which he might have sought re-election in.

The biggest news was out of the 31st. GOP Rep. Gary Miller unexpectedly declared that he'd run here, abandoning his incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary battle against Ed Royce in the 39th. This is a pretty surprising move, given that Miller doesn't even represent a single constituent in the redrawn seat and will have to carpetbag here from his home in Diamond Bar in the 39th. On top of that, the redrawn 31st is a blue-tilting district: It went for Obama by a 56-41 margin, not friendly turf for a conservative Republican like Miller.

But Miller's own polling of his race against fellow GOP Rep. Ed Royce in the 39th must have looked pretty ugly. What's more, Royce was definitely the establishment favorite: NRCC chair Pete Sessions (in his personal capacity, of course) even hosted a fundraiser for Royce. Sessions was clearly relieved at this turn of events, though, because he immediately came out with a statement saying that the NRCC intends to support Miller in the 31st.

Miller is far from a safe bet to win re-election, though, and it's conceivable he won't even be his party's nominee, in spite of Sessions' warning. While other Republicans had been waiting on Lewis's decision and were likely to defer to him, they may not do the same for Miller. Indeed, before Miller's announcement (and even before Lewis's), state Sen. Bob Dutton had said he's opening an exploratory committee, and San Bernardino County District Attorney Michael Ramos had also expressed interest. Will they now bow out?

One other wildcard is Rep. David Dreier, a redistricting victim who had been left with few good options for re-election, the best of which was probably right here in the 31st. With Miller's move and Sessions' endorsement, will he give up any hope of running in CA-31? Or might he say "nuts to that" and go up against Miller anyway? Apart from retirement, there's only one real alternative: a bid in the incumbent-less 8th. However, San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt and Assemblyman Paul Cook are both very likely to make a go of it here, and Dreier, who represents just a smidgen of the 8th, would (like Miller in the 31st) be carpetbagging.

(By the way, here's some helpful background on Miller, who has some dodgy ethical dealings in his jacket, and, according to CREW, is under investigation by the DOJ and the House Ethics Committee. The stories CREW links to are quite old, though, so it's impossible to say what the status of those inquiries is now.)

Finally, on the Democratic side, Pete Aguilar, the mayor of Redlands (pop. 69K), declared on Thursday that he's entering the race. Aguilar's entry probably makes him the most prominent Dem running so far; you can see a list of other candidates at the indispensible Race Tracker Wiki. And with or without Miller, the 31st remains a key Democratic pickup opportunity, and a race to watch.

4Q Fundraising:

CA-07: Ami Bera (D): $256K raised, $919K cash-on-hand

CT-Sen: Rep. Chris Murphy (D): $720K raised, $2.5 mil cash-on-hand

FL-Sen: Sen. Bill Nelson (D): $1.4 mil raised, $8.5 mil cash-on-hand; Rep. Connie Mack (R): $758K raised, $918K cash-on-hand

FL-08: Val Demings (D): $239K raised

FL-22: Patrick Murphy (D): >$300K raised

HI-Sen: Rep. Mazie Hirono (D): $624K raised, >$1 mil cash-on-hand

MI-Sen: Pete Hoekstra (R): >$1 mil raised

NH-02: Annie Kuster (D): $325K raised, >$800K cash-on-hand

NV-Sen: Sen. Dean Heller (R): $1.1 mil raised, $3.7 mil cash-on-hand

Senate:

NE-Sen: Karl Rove's American Crossroads is going up with a small ($30K) radio ad buy trying to dissuade ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey from returning home and running in place of the guy who succeeded him, retiring Sen. Ben Nelson. The spot (which you can listen to at the link) repeatedly mentions the fact that Kerrey has lived and worked in New York City, and features an almost comical quote in Kerrey's own words about how "the longer I've been here, the further to the left I get on healthcare." I imagine Crossroads is just trying to give Kerrey a taste of the kind of attacks he'd be able to expect if he did decide to make the race.

VA-Sen: After teasing us all for quite some time, "Sideshow" Bob Marshall is now saying that he will, in fact, run for the Republican Senate nomination against George Allen… but that he's still working out "a few mechanical steps" and isn't quite ready to make a formal announcement. Dammit, stop teasing us, Bob!

WV-Sen: If this is the best West Virginia Republicans have to offer, then Democrats are in pretty good shape for the Senate race. Wealthy businessman John Raese, who has run for statewide office five times now, says he plans to seek a rematch against Sen. Joe Manchin this fall. All of Raese's prior bids have, of course, been unsuccessful, including his ten-point loss to Manchin in the special election last cycle prompted by Sen. Robert Byrd's death. Obviously Obama will be on the ballot this year and that will change things somewhat, but if you get spanked that badly in West Virginia in a year like 2010 while running as a Republican, that says something.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Democrat Gary Hirshberg said back in November that he wasn't going to run for governor, but now comes news that he's stepping down from his job as CEO of Stonyfield Yogurt (though he's staying on as chairman). Could he be getting ready to change his mind? It seems unlikely, but then again, the Democratic field has been slow to take shape, with only ex-state Sen. Maggie Hassan actually declaring. So anything is possible.

PA-Gov: Wealthy businessman Tom Knox says "strongly considering" a run for governor in 2014, and presumably that would be as a Democrat. Knox has unsuccessfully run for office several times before, and during his most recent attempt (for Philadelphia mayor in 2011), he flirted with an independent bid. But as Adam Bonin points out, it's exceedingly hard to get on the ballot as an indie for a statewide race in Pennsylvania. Then again, with Knox's money, anything is possible.

WA-Gov: That Republican AG and gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna is in a constant state of dancing the hokey-pokey, sticking his moderate foot out and putting his conservative foot in, should come as no surprise at this point. PubliCola, however, has a nicely nuanced take on McKenna and his attempts to stay in the state's middle currents on the issue of gay marriage (an issue which looks poised to pass the state legislature in the coming weeks, thanks in part to the votes of at least several moderate King County suburban Republicans—and an issue showing majority support statewide according to recent polling). (David Jarman)

WI-Gov: Wisconsin Democrats say they will deliver their petitions to force a recall election of Gov. Scott Walker on Tuesday, the deadline for submitting them. The only question now is how many more signatures than the legal minimum of 540K will they submit. (A month ago, they said they had 507K.)

House:

AL-06: State Sen. Scott Beason announced on Thursday that he plans to challenge veteran Rep. Spencer Bachus in the Republican primary. Beason had his hand on the magic marker when it came time for redistricting and tried to keep the home base of another senator, Cam Ward, out of the 6th so that he could have a shot at Bachus all to himself, but Ward proved more popular and his own plan won out. Ward, however, seems content to bide his time and run for Congress some other day, so Beason will get his chance this year.

But boy does he bring a lot of baggage with him. I hesitate to summarize because Beason's record is really quite appalling, but if you want the headline version, he was caught on tape (while wearing a wire for the FBI, which was investigating illegal gambling) calling black Alabamians "aborigines." That's really just the tip of the iceberg, though. To learn more about how this came to pass, I strongly encourage you to read this report by Kyle Whitmire at Weld for Birmingham. A taste, from a judge's ruling in the gambling case:

“The evidence introduced at trial contradicts the self-serving portrait of Beason and Lewis as untouchable opponents of corruption. In reality, Beason and Lewis had ulterior motives rooted in naked political ambition and pure racial bias.” […]

“Beason’s and Lewis’s statements demonstrate a deep-seated racial animus and a desire to suppress black voters by manipulating what issues appeared on the 2010 ballot,” Thompson wrote. “Lawmakers who harbor such sentiments lack the integrity expected from elected officials.”

CA-30: Look out! Harry Reid is hosting a D.C. fundraiser in March for Rep. Howard Berman, who of course is in the midst of a monster incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary against fellow Dem Rep. Brad Sherman. Berman's hoovered up most of the establishment support so far, though, and this is just his latest get. As Dave Catanese alludes, it'll be interesting to see what their 4Q fundraising reports look like.

CT-04: Yet another Republican is considering a late entry into the 4th District race: Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti. (Just the other day, state Sen. Toni Boucher said she was looking at the contest, too.) Shelton, a city on the eastern edge of Fairfield County, has a population of about 40K and Lauretti has served as mayor for 10 terms, dating all the way back to 1991.

FL-06: Clay County Clerk of Court Jimmy Jett says he's considering a run for Congress… but that would set him on a collision course with Rep. Cliff Stearns in the Republican primary. Jett is waiting on the final outcome of redistricting to decide, so perhaps he's hoping to wind up in an incumbent-less district, or that the new lines will make Stearns vulnerable.

IL-10: PCCC is touting a new poll of likely voters, conducted by PPP, which shows activist Ilya Sheyman (whom they've endorsed) narrowly leading the Democratic primary field in the 10th CD. Sheyman takes 23%, while businessman Brad Schneider is at 21, businessman John Tree at 5, and attorney Vivek Bavda at 2. Still, it's anyone's race, seeing as fully half of voters haven't made up their minds yet. The primary is on March 20, and the winner gets to take on GOP freshman Bob Dold!.

MD-06: After all that mishugas, it turns out that Bud Otis isn't running for congress after all. Otis, you may recall, was chief-of-staff to Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett as recently as Nov. 30, when Roll Call reported that he was looking at a primary challenge against his own boss. Awkward! Otis resigned that very night, which seemed to give credence to the original report, but now he says he never had any plans to go after Bartlett's seat. Rather, he claims that state GOP chair Alex Mooney was behind the story, something Mooney of course denies. (Mooney himself was also interested in the seat but ultimately decided not to run after receiving a few brickbats. It's not exactly good form for a party chair to challenge one of his own party's incumbents in a primary.)

Bartlett did, however, wind up with two notable challengers from his own party, as expected: State Sen. David Brinkley and state Del. Kathy Afzali both filed for the race.

PA-08: As expected, attorney Kathy Boockvar officially launched her campaign against GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick on Thursday, the first Democrat to enter the contest. Boockvar ran for Commonwealth Court last year, a statewide position, and lost a close race to Republican Anne Covey, 52-48. As for this race, the 8th was made touch redder in redistricting, but it still went for Barack Obama by a 53-46 margin, making it a tough but winnable seat for Team Blue.

UT-02: Republican state Rep. Dave Clark, a former House speaker, announced on Wednesday that he's running for the open 2nd Congressional District. He joins a pretty busy GOP field.

WA-01: Suzan DelBene, director of the Washington State Dept. of Revenue, just announced that she's entering the race for the redrawn (and open) 1st CD. DelBene, you'll recall, ran in the 8th against GOP Rep. Dave Reichert last cycle, performing admirably in a very difficult year. Thanks to her good showing, she had been mentioned as a possible repeat candidate, but when new congressional maps were released last month, DelBene found herself moved into in a new seat. That prompted her to tweet: "Looks like I now will be in the new 1st Congressional District." So this news comes as little surprise, given that strong hint. DelBene joins a crowded Democratic field that includes 2006 & 2008 WA-08 candidate Darcy Burner, state Rep. Roger Goodman, state Sen. Steve Hobbs, and ex-state Rep. Laura Ruderman.

Other Races:

NY-St. Sen: Democratic state Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer, who barely won re-election in 2010, will not run again this fall due to health reasons. Republican Bob Cohen, Oppenheimer's opponent last cycle, is running again, but Democrats have a credible replacement in the wings in the form of Assemblyman George Latimer, who says he's interested. This is a 65% Obama seat, which would be a stretch for Republicans, but not impossible. It's also possible the GOP will sense an opportunity to try to draw the lines here more in their favor, though that may not be so easy in this part of lower Westchester County.

PA-AG: Ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy is touting an internal poll showing him with a plurality lead in the Democratic primary, but a lot of voters are still undecided. Murphy takes 36% in the survey from Global Strategy Group, while former Lackawanna County assistant district attorney Kathleen Kane gets 15 and former Philadelphia prosecutor Dan McCaffery gets 8.

Murphy's also taken some hits recently because he never sat for the Pennsylvania bar exam, but rather became licensed to practice in the state through a very common process known as "reciprocity," which involves passing another state's exam and then gaining sufficient legal experience. Speaking as a lawyer, this kind of criticism is manifestly stupid—if Pennsylvania thought it necessary for all lawyers practicing there to take the PA bar, they'd make that a requirement. But they don't, and it's not. That said, things play differently on the campaign trail than they do at bar committee meetings, and McCaffery has been making a big deal of this story.

Grab Bag:

DCCC: The D-Trip is once again touting its recruitment efforts, sending around a press release listing a whole bunch of candidates in a whole bunch of races. (I believe this is the third such email they've sent this election cycle.) Click the link to see who made the list, and who didn't. (Note that they helpfully include the names they've previously mentioned at the end of the list.)

Maryland: The Old Line State's filing deadline was Wednesday, and the Secretary of State's office has helpfully put together a complete list of every candidate for every office. You can also check out the Race Tracker Wiki's Maryland page.

North Carolina: Tom Jensen's got some tarheel miscellany, focused especially on the proposed anti-same sex marriage amendment to the state constitution that will go before voters this May. Support for the measure keeps ticking downward, but overall, it still looks like it's passing by a big margin, 56-34.

Passings: Former Republican Gov. and Rep. Bill Janklow of South Dakota died on Thursday of brain cancer at the age of 72. Janklow spent many decades in public service (which you can read about at the link) but will probably be best remembered for the fatal accident he caused in 2003 that ended his career, when he sped through a stop sign and killed a motorcyclist. He was convicted of manslaughter, and his resignation from the House prompted a special election which was won by Democrat Stephanie Herseth.

WATN?: Finally, someone who can actually teach Harvard kids something! Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is spending the spring semester at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, which is run by none other than Trey Grayson, the former Republican Secretary of State from Kentucky. Hopefully Strickland can take an occasional break from teaching to torment Artur Davis in the schoolyard.

Redistricting Roundup:

FL Redistricting: The state Senate's new senate and congressional maps just passed through committee on Wednesday and are expected to come before the full body for a vote next week. (A number of Democrats voted in support of the GOP's gerrymanders in both cases.) The Senate and House have agreed to each draw their own maps for their own chambers, but they're working on different congressional plans which will ultimately have to be reconciled.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  18-9 in Florida (7+ / 0-)

    at least would be an improvement over the current 19-6.  If the judge-drawn Texas map is reinstated that would mean a likely 6 seat net gain for Democrats in two states dominated by Republicans.  This would offset the likely losses in North Carolina.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 05:14:34 AM PST

    •  If they were just going to reinstate (0+ / 0-)

      the map the judges already created, why did the Supreme Court feel it was important enough to take the case that they are willing to delay electoral procedures? I think the chances that they will just approve that map are probably no more than 10% at most.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 06:48:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Did you count FL-2 in it too? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think Leonard Bembry is a great candidate here and they undid the anti-Boyd gerrymander almost totally and Sink won like 51% of the vote here.

      I also hope the State House's version of Buchanan's district is adopted (it takes out Castor's tentacle into Manatee County, whose existence was a slap in the face of fair districts) and give Fitzgerald a better shot.

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 03:29:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, I didn't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I assumed they would take only Rivera's and West's seats.  Doesn't rule out 2.  But as I understand the proposed map shored up Southerland a bit.

        “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

        by Paleo on Sat Jan 14, 2012 at 05:05:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It didn't, it weakened him. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          All drafts of the map take out the finger into walton and Okaloosa Counties, makes Dem Jefferson and Leon Counties whole again, cuts out conservative Dixie, Lafayette, and Shawnee County, and adds a third of Dem Madison County.  It moves it 3 percent to the left.

          'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 12:37:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Glad to hear about Miller in CA. The guy is a (5+ / 0-)

    first-rate asshat and so NOW I have the congressional race I will throw my funds and time behind to beat that son of a bitch.

    He was my congressman for many years and after attending his summer health care meeting and watching him degrade people and allow others to do it too, I was infuriated beyond any dislike for the man prior.

    I'll contact Pete Aguilar's campaign office tomorrow (well today... I got up really early!) and get started.

    I hope to help make sure Miller gets his ever-loving butt kicked.

    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 05:17:59 AM PST

    •  BTW... WHAT is with the pic in the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      article you linked to?

      Who are those guys?  I felt like I was looking at someone from Canada surrounded by the Royal Canadian Mounties or something?

      AND, for others in so cal, please watch this race and consider donating. Miller is extremely wealthy and probably can self-fund quite a bit.

      202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

      by cany on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 05:24:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Brad Miller (NC-13) is my kind of congressman (10+ / 0-)
    Standing at the bar inside Big Boss Brewery, Congressman Brad Miller asked for a High Roller IPA.

    "The things I'm willing to do for my constituents," the suited Raleigh Democrat said as he moved the glass to his lips.


    Miller is sponsoring a bill to reduce taxes on craft beer.
    Miller's tour of Big Boss and subsequent meet-and-greet with local brewers at Natty Greene's in Raleigh qualifies as, well, research.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...
  •  PA-AG (4+ / 0-)

    Patrick Muprhy released an internal showing him leading the primary.

    Murphy - 36%
    Kane - 15%
    McCaffery - 8%

    It's an internal, and with all those undecideds doubt it means much.  Plus the recent issues going around might have driven down his unfavorables recently....

  •  Oh noes! After being "represented" (7+ / 0-)

    for 20 years by Jerry Lewis, they are trying to foist Gary Miller on me? What is this, the seat where corrupt GOP Congressmen go to die?

    My new favorite RIGHT WING website: NewtCantWin.com It's what the RIGHT thinks of Newt! Enjoy!

    by pucklady on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 06:36:30 AM PST

    •  haha, that's actually funny (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

      Although by living in the Inland Empire, you're likely to always have a Republican congressman

      •  not really (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

        Of the 6 new districts entirely or almost entirely in the empire, 3 are likely to be held by Dems:

        31 (Berdoo-Cucamonga)
        35 (Ontario-Fontana)
        41 (Riverside-Moreno Valley)

        The 3 likely red districts are

        8 (high desert)
        36 (Coachella)
        42 (I-15 corridor)

        39 is also going R, but it's mostly in Orange county.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 07:57:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I live in Casino Marino's district, as my friend (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, OleHippieChick

      says who was a lawyer opposite of Marino when Marino was a county DA, it is only a matter of time before that corrupt son of a bitch is arrested for something.  He has had some dealings that are very questionable to say the least with some what used to be called, Underworld figures..people who later did some federal prison time..those people supported and funded him for a long time in his political career.

      •  I should add that Chris Carney was my rep (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and although he was a blue dog, he did vote for the Affordable Health Care Act and some other legislation finally after much coaxing.  He was a heap better than a few other blue dogs  like Altimre and all the Republicans in PA.

        But Carney had a website called CasinoMarino. com that was very good but people ignored it apparently.  But this is a red district, so I am not surprised. They say it was a fluke that a Democrat held the seat for 2 terms but that was because the opposition was accused of trying to strangle his mistress and his next opponent was a piss poor candidate.

        Marino ran for the seat and we never saw one ad with him speaking and he did not even campaign much.  He had friends and money in high places to do it for him.

    •  Maybe Dean Martin... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tommypaine, pucklady

      ...since he lost so badly for Governor in Arizona can move into your district and run!

  •  WI Recalls \: Sen29 Galloway opponent emerges (7+ / 0-)

    Pam Galloway, on the the four targeted Republican Senators targeted for recall has just acquired here first legitimate Democratic foe, Maraton Co., Chair Jeff Johnson

    link: http://www.wausaudailyherald.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 07:12:13 AM PST

    •  Seems like a good get (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

      How much more red did SD-29 get when during redistricting?

    •  editing correction (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, Setsuna Mudo, itskevin, MichaelNY

      Pam Galloway, one of the four Republican Senators targeted for recall, has just acquired her first legitimate Democratic foe, Marathon Co., Chair Jeff Johnson.  

      My fingers were typing what they wanted, not what I wanted, lol.  What I posted makes it look like I should be using a spittle bucket.  No facts however were harmed by my lacking of typing skills.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 07:48:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if Donna Seidel will jump in (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits

      I feel like she would be the strongest candidate.

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 07:56:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wish it weren't a union member running (0+ / 0-)

      He tries to inoculate himself on his web site but I'm not sure this is going to work:

      "Johnson is also a former member of AFSCME, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. During his time representing fellow co-workers, Johnson butted heads with union bosses in Madison. In one instance, Johnson supported a fellow worker for a position against the wishes of union bosses. For that, they waged a campaign against Johnson and he was ousted from his position."

      There is one Democratic state representative in the 29th - any word on whether she may run?  I'm assuming the 29th is going to be much tougher to win after redistricting and a current officeholder may not be up for having what amounts to a one-year seat.

      •  Really hard to strengthen SD-29 much (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, Setsuna Mudo

        unless SD-23 is sacrificed, so they kept the district at nearly the same PVI. That said, it's still only 52-53% Obama, so it's already almost as red as SD-12 (Holperin) and SD-18 (King). That said, as an odd-numbered district it won't be up until 2014.

        Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 08:15:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I think I'll post this in the Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden, Setsuna Mudo

    post below, too--

    I think it would be a good idea to have a central place where .drf files of official maps are being stored.

    So I just started a public GDocs folder (although only editors can edit, everyone can view and download-- if you want in, just PM me).

    I just put in the Congressional Maps of New Mexico, Wisconsin, Virginia (as of now) and the Congressional, State Senate and State Legislature Maps of Illinois. RRH user Left Coast Libertarian supplied the Michigan Congressional Map.

    If you guys have anything on your harddrives already or some hours to waste, some help would be appreciated.

    Otherwise I'll just add a map here and there whenever I have time.

    https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B9xmK9CzRrNCMWViOTVhM2QtZDRlMi00ODdlLTk0MWQtNWU2ZDIxNWZjMjVm

  •  Quick Comment About People's Names (5+ / 0-)

    When I see a story about Jerry Lewis, I have to think twice about which one. This one is not the comedian and actor Jerry Lewis, not the musician Jerry Lee Lewis, and not the Arizona politician Jerry Lewis (the Republican who recently beat the execrable Russell Pearce, former President of the AZ Senate, in the recall election). OK, this is the California guy. The story makes more sense if it’s the Rep from CA who is retiring than if it’s the state senator from AZ.

    My brain sometimes has to stop for a minute and disambiguate. Like when there were two Senators named Kerrey (D-NE) and Kerry (D-MA) and two Senators named Bennet (D-CO) and Bennett (R-UT). Also, when Robert Gates was Secretary of Defense, I’d see a headline such as “Gates says we will remove troops from Iraq” and my first reaction was usually something like, “Why is Bill Gates from Microsoft talking about troops?”

    But the angle said to them, "Do not be Alfred. A sailor has been born to you"

    by Dbug on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 07:29:08 AM PST

  •  What do the maps (0+ / 0-)

    under consideration in Florida look like, and what would they mean for us?

  •  Rasmussen has Romney with 7 point lead in SC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    28 to Gingrich's 21.  Both Paul and Santorum at 16.  Perry 6, Huntsman 5.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 08:04:25 AM PST

    •  Paul at 16% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      Seems like that would only happen with high turnout, which i would think would make it unlikely anyone cracks 30%.  

      This poll, if it became reality, would be great news for everyone.  they'd probably all stay in the race and be able to site these results of people coming around.  Even Huntsman could spin it that he's waiting for the February states (though that conflicts with his weird NH primary night speech "ticket to ride").

      Perry, well i still don't know what he's doing, though I hope he stays in until Texas.

  •  Ted Strickland was an excellent & effective gov (0+ / 0-)

    He really got things going again and showed how to work with opponents, getting a lot accomplished despite having an all-Republican legislature his first two years, and a very conservative Republican Senate the whole time. He balanced budgets with no loss to education and came up with loads of creative job-creation ideas. He can teach students a lot of good things.

    One thing, however, he fatally fell down on – the loyalty thing. As one activist said, when asked by someone else sitting at our table at a fundraiser, which Senate primary candidate they should support in 2010, "In the past whenever I have supported someone primarily out of loyalty, it has been the wrong choice."

    Strickland made two very wrong choices that gave us Governor Kasich — likely to be the worst governor in Ohio's history – who won with only 49% of the vote and by only two points. Probably the worst was his backing of the radically anti-choice anti-gay state rep. Jennifer Garrison for secretary of state. Not only was she not a viable statewide candidate but that was the point at which many critical Democratic women activists said "ta ta" to the entire campaign cycle – taking their volunteer hours with them. Apparently, she and Strickland, who were from the same part of the state, went way back, and he had been looking at her for his running mate (since his current lieutenant. governor was then running for U.S. Senate — Strickland's other loyalty mistake). Then leaders in the gay community told him they would not support his re-election with her on the ticket (She demagogued gay marriage to get elected to the legislature) so it's said he promised to support her for Secretary of State. That whole race became a catastrophe with Democratic women in Ohio, many of whom are still seething. I mean, she supported a Personhood amendment! A Democrat! Bad, Ted, bad.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 10:52:17 AM PST

  •  IL-10 Last two cycles at this time (0+ / 0-)

    Dan Seals was making a far better showing over primary opponents then either Sheyman or Schneider here. I think this is a factor of primary voter skepticism over Sheyman due to his age, inexperience, lack of good credentials etc., possible his ill deeds while at MoveOn working against real health care reform in favor of whatever the Administration thought would make them look good for 2012, and the mistrust over Schneider's Mark Kirk donations. I think it's John Tree's election to lose. As a candidate, he has what primary voters say they're looking for. It all depends on whether his late start will prevent him from getting his name out there. I also would not count Bavda out entirely. He has a terrific website and Internet campaign going on and is having a gala ball tomorrow night.

    Using my free speech while I still have it. http://www.ellenofthetenth.blogspot.com/

    by ebgill on Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 12:01:56 PM PST

  •  Raese again? (0+ / 0-)

    I almost weep for WV Republicans.  West Virginia has been  'drifting red' so long, you would expect it to BE red by now wouldn't you?

    Who is to blame for Republicans failing to press the advantage.  I'd suggest no one deserves more credit/blame than John Raese.  He's a one man echo chamber with (by WV standards) enough money and control of the state's media markets to have pushed aside at least one generation of potential Republican contenders in service to his ego and (now comically) extended delusions of his own vitality.

    At this point, many West Virginians over age thirty five will vote against him, not for cause, but simply by reflex action.

    Voters under thirty five will have a hard time mistaking dissipated old coot for "their guy".

    I don't wish him ill health, but personally, I put odds at 50/50 that he's even still ambulatory in 2014.

    •  oops (0+ / 0-)

      i see now that race is 2012, not 2014.

      In that case, he might still be ambulatory.

      But I think having Raese/Romney leading the GOP ticket would be an enthusiasm dampener, to say the least, for the west virginia red-state sort.  It would be a best case scenario for Obama's (admittedly slim)   chances at carrying WV.

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