HOU* v. BAL: BAL 2.5 (9)[17]
NYG* v. GB: GB 6 (9)[11]
Computer chooses the underdog to beat the spreads in both games.
HOU v BAL:
Saraceno sees BAL offense coming up big against a solid HOU defense; and BAL defense chokes the HOU offense until it can only throw the ball at the rabid BAL LBs and secondary. HOU came close to beating BAL at home last October. Both teams played well but BAL scored 10 points in the final 5 minutes to seal it, HOU 14 BAL 29.
HOU was 3-2 against teams that went to the playoffs this year; BAL was 6-0 (although 4 wins were CIN and PIT). I haven't heard any discussion this week about the AFC North's playoff performance last week, what with CIN losing handily and PIT overmatched by DEN. But those losses suggest that the AFC North is weaker than we've been led to suspect.
BAL is 8-0 at home this season. HOU is 5-3 on the road, losing to NO, BAL, and IND.
Had HOU just limped through last week's game, I would bet BAL in this game. But HOU looked like a whole team against CIN in their game; their QB might still be a cipher, but HOU won as a team last week and looked good. HOU defense could put pressure on Flacco all game long. BAL defense relies on stopping the rush early and forcing an offense into passing on predictable downs. HOU can run on BAL early and late and will only hurt themselves by settling for FGs.
BAL wins
BAL offense runs for 130+ yards, and Flacco completes 18-25 for 250+ yards, 2 TD, no INTs. BAL scores the game's first 10 points; BAL defense blitzes Yates early; HOU 140 total yards offense in the first half. BAL defense plays pass in the second half, HOU runs the ball but only kicks two FGs.
BAL defense wins in the 4th quarter by blitzing, forcing interceptions and WR fumbles. Ugly game, HOU 10 BAL 31.
HOU wins
HOU offense matches BAL offense, score for score. HOU defense line pressures Flacco and Rice without needing LBs. DEs force second period Flacco turnover, HOU turns it into 7 points. HOU two-minute drill at the end of the half nets 3 more points; HOU scores on 1st possession of the second half.
BAL offense abandons the run, HOU defense confuses Flacco with 5-2, LBs dropping back to cover as often as they blitz. BAL falls behind by so much they need to go for TDs instead of settling for FGs. HOU 35 BAL 14.
Turnovers will happen in this game. I look to HOU to respond more favorably to their own mistakes, by giving up fewer points off turnovers, by scoring more off takeaways, and by coming right back to the pass after throwing an interception.
My pick
HOU straight up is my pick so I'll of course take HOU plus 9 points.
NYG v GB
Two Super Bowl winnning QBs throw footballs all game long. GB at home is favored by
9 points. Eli v Aaron. NFC Championship game v couch.
GB's win v DET in the last game of the regular season showed me how determined a team they were. So will this game be a repeat of December's game? Or have the NYG figured out a better ending?
GB wins
GB offense scores lots of 1st half points. Rushing yards >150. NYG offense plays catch-up, stops rushing the ball, secondary picks off Eli twice, recovers one fumble. GB 42 NYG 20
NYG wins
Early drives all for TDs, accurate Eli passes. NYG squeeze GB offense by blitzing Rodgers on second-and-long. NYG offense rushes for 120+ yards. NYG score 21 points in the second half. GB scores 14 points in the first half, 14 points in the second half. NYG 38 GB 28.
My pick
This game could easily go into OT, considering the QBs abilities to score quickly. For that reason I don't like GB 9; if this were GB 5.5, I'd take GB and sweat out an OT where I'd have a chance to win with a GB TD.
So, because I think 9 points is too many, I'm taking the NYG plus 9. From the pile of skittles I won last week for betting DEN straight up, I'm going to put a bunch on NYG to win straight up v GB (in a tense OT period, winning with a 50-yard FG).