Since redistricting in Tennessee is all but set in stone, I decided to try something out. Despite making noises last year of splitting Nashville 2-3 ways to hurt Rep. Jim Cooper of Nashville (D-05), the state legislature held back and instead made the district one point more Democratic by making Davidson County whole and trading some of TN-05's dark red territory for light red territory. When the plans to cut up Nashville were leaked out accidentally, Jim Cooper and Nashville Mayor Karl Dean raised a row over it and seems to have had the desired effect. (Note: Jim Cooper is far from my favorite Democrat, but at least the district is blue enough for future Democrats.) Why they even pondered splitting Nashville two ways is beyond me as it would create two Blue Dog-favoring districts in neutral years. Three ways would create three Lean R seats (Lean D for Cooper), but may flip in a Democratic wave year. Splitting Nashville four ways would be their best bet from a partisan perspective as it would create four districts where Obama got only 40-42% of the vote and would be solidly Likely R. Five ways would be even better for Republicans (5 Safe R seats most likely), but it would be a bridge way too far for parochial interests.
Nashville is one of the few parts of Tennessee getting bluer on the federal level. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Al Gore's presidential performance in Nashville by one percent (60% to 59%). Its district, the 5th, has always been Nashville-based and has not had a Republican representng it since 1875. Its PVI is D+3 and Obama got only one percent less in this district than Gore did in 2000.
For this diary, I decided to see how far one could go in vote sinking Democrats in TN-05. The result is highly effective and could cause Jim Cooper some pain in primary season.
This TN-05 is only 70 people over ideal population and takes in all of Nashville's blue areas, excludes the conservative outskirts, reaches out an arm to take in Murfreensboro, sends out an arm to take in the solidly Democratic western half of Clarksville, and finishes off by taking in some swingy territory south of Clarksville.
Partisan Performance:
63.8% Obama - 36.2% McCain
64% Avg D - 36% Average R
This district is probably around D+10 in its PVI and vote sinks Democrats as well as it possibly can. Of course this district is pretty unlikely due to objections from Rutherford and Montgomery County. However, it is impossible to make TN-05 so blue without their help.
What do you think? Could Jim Cooper be in trouble in a primary here? Also, why do you think the TN legislature chose not to carve up Nashville?