Four games leaves us with four teams - no point wasting time here ... to the quick notes:
San Francisco 36, New Orleans 32 - The game of the weekend, and certainly another log thrown on the pile of "greatest playoff games". The four lead changes in five minutes, the unthinkable bootleg (with one of the great sprints in NFL history - Joe Staley's pull - and a receiver crackback that parted the sea for Alex Smith), the remarkable Jimmy Graham and then the site of Vernon Davis overcome sobbing - an almost perfect companion image to the similar site of an overwhelmed Terrell Owens the last time 49ers fans got a taste like this.
New England 45, Denver 10 The dream had to die eventually, but who knew it would be New England's defense that would strangle Tebow so completely. By deferring after winning the toss, Denver bet on the ability to hold the Patriots down, but the cruelly efficient 5 play drive to score put that notion in its place. The Patriots played with a lethal fury and heightened precision that makes them almost impossible for even the best defenses to contain fully.
Baltimore 20, Houston 13 New England's defense is not as stout as Houston's. This is a good thing for Baltimore as they were totally strangled in a not-very-inspiring effort considering how hard they pushed the "finally, a home game" angle. Thank god they were facing a 3rd string QB. TJ Yates will be a good quarterback someday - but this was too much to soon.
New York Giants 37, Green Bay 20 And it wasn't even that close. The Packers could have lost this 44-13 or worse - a couple of ghastly calls went their way, but they'd have needed the 1972 Gold Medal basketball officials crossed with the judges who gave Roy Jones' 1988 Gold Medal bout to the Korean guy to close the chasm here. The Giants have been gaining steam as any non-ostrich could tell you. The execution was there, the pass rush was there, and the receiving brilliance was there. Whatever edge and fury the Patriots displayed a night earlier, the Packers did not. Turnovers, missed open receivers, forgetting how to defend a Hail Mary - the Packers provided no evidence that they went 5-11 in the regular season let alone 15-1. The Giants are proving to be a tough out, but the Packers never challenged the Giants to reach deep - not in the least.
So what do we have? Two games - we start with the adjusted scoring margins, and go from there:
Sunday 3:00
Baltimore Edgar Allan Poems at Greater Boston and Providence Patriots
On paper the Patriots are a 6 point favorite (12.9 to 10.3 with a home field add-on). However, the Patriots got blown out by Baltimore in the Wild Card round in 2009, and lost 3 of 4 quarters against Baltimore in their 2010 meeting. This defense is not the sort of thing that can scare like the Houston defense is. That said, they played a great game against a very limited Denver side. Baltimore either was held down by a great defense or looked positively constipated against the Texans - a safe bet is a little of Column A, and a little of Column B. I expect Baltimore to get this done. Defense wins championships allegedly - and Baltimore is equipped to get stops. That said, their offense cannot bring as little to the party as it did Sunday. The Patriots offense is too precise to be completely shut down. Can Baltimore find 24 points or so? I think so.
Sunday 6:30
Northern New Jersey Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Holy 1991 Batman! The Giants for the second week in a row return to the scene of one of the franchise's proudest heists. Now nobody will confuse this 49ers offense with any of the Montana/Young vintages, though Alex Smith seemed to be bitten by a radioactive spider carrying those spirits or somesuch. Both teams played lovely hard hitting big play inducing games. Their first meeting this year was also a quality barn burner. Both defenses are capable of big plays, and both offenses do what they do well. The game will come down to which offense can exploit its best people the best. Can the Giants get the big plays that Nicks and Cruz have been spoiling tri-staters with all season or will the 49ers be able to neutralize and possess - and keep the game a manageable slog. Weather could be a huge factor here. The metrics put the 49ers as (12.3 to 4.1) 12 point favorite, but clearly the Giants early season slogging has little resonance anymore. If this game is not a worthy successor to the 1991 meeting, then all of us will have been fooled.