On the Republican side, tomorrow will either be the day that Mitt Romney confounds the rapidly hardening conventional wisdom and all but puts a bow on the Republican nomination, or it will be the day that Newt Gingrich rips the sutures off of a nomination fight that was supposed to be all sewn up.
Either way, it is a day of particular import in this fight for the right to face Barack Obama in November.
With that in mind, while it is a particularly light day on the polling front, what data we do have to digest is entirely on the Republican side of the polling ledger:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 30, Gingrich 20, Paul 13, Santorum 13, "Others" (including Perry, presumably) 9
SOUTH CAROLINA (Clemson Univ): Gingrich 32, Romney 26, Paul 11, Santorum 9
SOUTH CAROLINA (PPP Tracking): Gingrich 35, Romney 29, Paul 15, Santorum 15
SOUTH CAROLINA (We Ask America): Gingrich 32, Romney 28, Paul 13, Santorum 9, Huntsman 3, Perry 3
Follow me past the jump for a few pre-Palmetto State thoughts.
When the Polling Wrap comes to you again on Monday the 23rd, South Carolina will be in the rear view mirror, and we will be just eight days from the enormous stakes of the Florida primary (where Romney was dominating early in the week, but ... as everyone knows by now ... this ain't early in the week, anymore).
Here are a couple of things to think about heading into tomorrow's showdown in the South:
1. The Newt bounce/Romney fade is real. But we don't yet know how deep it is.
As Jed Lewison noted earlier today, the second wave of Newt-mentum, propelled in part by his South Carolina debate performances, is being accompanied by a legitimate fade in Mitt Romney's support, as well. Since late last week, when Mitt Romney seemed for all the world to be the inevitable GOP nominee, Newt Gingrich has, indeed, moved up a total of 6 percent. But Romney has fallen by an equivalent amount (7 percent). Romney has, despite two fewer candidates being in the field, actually backtracked to the 30 percent "ceiling" that had confounded him for most of the cycle.
The question, now, is whether Romney's one-time ceiling of around 30 percent is now his floor. The next few national polls, and the Gallup tracker in particular, will be telling. So, too, will an examination of Newt's support. If he continues to creep up the board again, then the long-held meme (which I long shared) that he would consolidate almost all of the non-Romney support might be legitimate.
2. Yes, Ron Paul fans, your man is being ignored by the press. But there is a good reason why he is being ignored.
On the surface, it would be striking that the guy who finished 2nd and 3rd in the first two contests of the nomination fight would take a back seat to a guy who strung together a pair of 4th place finishes (or ... perhaps, a 4th and a 5th, depending on how New Hampshire finally shakes out). That quirk of the campaign cycle has led a lot of Ron Paul followers to scream conspiracy.
There is no conspiracy, really. Reporters are acknowledging a simple reality: Ron Paul has essentially zero chance of being the nominee, and realistically has never had a shot at it. His is the narrowest floor and ceiling in the field, in terms of candidate support. He will almost certainly do no worse than 10 percent in any given state, but he is exceedingly unlikely to win any states, either. Only one poll, a locally conducted poll in December in South Dakota, gave him a statewide lead anywhere. What's more: his is the candidacy that is cited by Republican voters as being the least acceptable in the position of Republican nominee. In a recent ABC poll, more than a quarter of Republican voters said they would not support Paul if he were to be the GOP nominee, more than any other candidate in the field. Gallup was even more pessimistic, with only 25 percent of conservative Republicans citing Paul as "an acceptable nominee" for the GOP.
3. Rick Santorum desperately needs a Romney victory.
A couple of days before the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum was at 6 percent nationally, while Newt Gingrich (while in the midst of a fade) was at 23 percent nationally. Less than a week later, in the wake of Santorum's Iowa win (or "tie" ... or whatever the hell that was), he had shot up to 18 percent, while Gingrich had faded to 17 percent.
Santorum didn't eclipse Newt as the main anti-Romney, if only because he was so far behind to start with. His bounce was legitimate, but he was trailing so badly that all his fairly impressive 18 percent bounce (relative to Gingrich) got him was a tie.
But, according to this morning's Gallup tracking poll, Gingrich is already seven points ahead of Santorum. What will happen if Newt wins in South Carolina tomorrow? For the first time in the cycle, the battle for the undisputed anti-Mitt might legitimately be resolved, because Gingrich will almost certainly head into the mid-to-upper 20s, while Santorum could very possibly slip into single digits. If that is the case, it could be bedtime for Santorum. Santorum's relevance in this race was already starting to slip with Gingrich's second wind this week. He needs to see Gingrich's momentum get kneecapped. The only way that happens, of course, is if Mitt Romney takes the win. In that case, Santorum can claim ... semi-legitimately ... that only he has been able to take on Mitt Romney and win.
The beauty, as is always the case on an election day, is that we will know for sure in about 24 hours. And, when the Wrap returns on Monday, the only thing we know for certain is that we will be looking at a very different Republican contest.