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Redistricting in Arizona is done!  Last week, the Independent Redistricting Commission voted 3-2 to approve the final Congressional and State Legislature maps for the state of Arizona.  They were submitted to the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice for the necessary process of preclearance before they are officially enacted.  The DOJ will grant preclearance, trust me.  They will do so within 60 days of the submission of the request, as is required of them.  Thus ends months of political and legal wrangling over the process of redistricting in Arizona.

In this diary, I will analyze each of Arizona's 9 new districts and also give background on the whole fiasco.

Note: The blog called "The Arizona Eagletarian" was what I was following during the latter parts of the redistricting process (when the drama picked up) whenever I wanted to know more about what was going on.  Steve Muratore, the author, went to many of the hearings and was able to speak with some of the members of the redistricting commission.

First the background information.  The Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) is made up of two Democratic members, two Republican members, and one Independent member who also serves as Chairman.  The members for this round were McNulty (D), Herrera (D), Mathis (I), Freeman (R), and Stertz (R).  In order to pass or approve anything, the IRC must vote for it with a simple majority.  The first hints of discord broke out when the IRC voted back in summer to make Strategic Telemetry its map-drawing consultant and when the IRC declined to make a Jan Brewer loyalist their legal counsel.  Stertz brought accusations to Attorney-General Horne (R) that Mathis lined up votes in secret (violating open meetings laws) for Strategic Telemetry (which has had Democratic clients in the past) as well as lying about her political past (her husband was the treasurer for a State House race in 2010).  Attorney-General Horne immediately started bombarding the IRC with investigations to such a ludicrous degree, it became a witch hunt.  We'll get back to him later.

In early October last year, the IRC approved tentative maps for Congress and the State Legislature.  They made more competitive districts that would allow Democrats to win as many as five of Arizona's nine Congressional seats and easily get above 1/3rd of the State Legislature seats.  It is no exaggeration to say the AZ GOP freaked out.  The Governor called foul, and everyone else followed suit.  They thought that because they controlled almost all of state government that they should be entitled to a Republican gerrymander (which is more or less what the maps used in the 00's are).  Things really got serious when Brewer issued a letter to the State Senate to remove Chairwoman Mathis from the IRC.  The State Senate, then under the leadership of now ex-Senator and Neo-Nazi sympathizer Russell Pearce, complied at the beginning of November.  By the way, I'm not succumbing to Godwin's Law when I say that.  Russell Pearce has hung out with xenophobic far-right groups such as the Neo-Nazis.  He even endorses some of them for office.

Later that fateful November, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled to overturn the removal of Chairwoman Mathis, declaring that the state could not prove or allege that Mathis committed "dereliction of duty or significant malfeasance".  Thus, Mathis was restored and the IRC could continue.  On December 20th, they voted to approve tentative final maps and had Strategic Telemetry look it over for any potential issues.  The IRC re-convened earlier this month for a final round of hearings.  They voted 3-2 (both Democrats and Mathis) to approve the final maps for Arizona and send them to the DOJ for preclearance.

As for Attorney-General Horne, he was rebuked by a Maricopa County Superior Court last month.  The court declared that only the state constitution's open meetings language was applicable to the IRC, not the statutory language.  This ruling effectively slammed the brakes on Horne's witch hunt, giving the IRC a clear field to complete its work.

I went on the IRC's website and found the final maps for the Congressional seats.  It was quite hard to trace them over to DRA, but I did a decent approximation.  Sadly, deviations of my districts run as high as ~24,000 people in one district.  My lowest deviation is ~750 people.  However, the stats for my traced districts closely match the stats given by the IRC.

Let's begin.

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AZ-01 (blue) – Paul Gosar (R-Flagstaff, but will be Prescott)
VAP: 20.5% Native American, 18.4% Hispanic
47.8% Avg Democrat/52.2% Avg GOP
New Numbers: 47.9% Obama/51.0% McCain
Old Numbers: 44% Obama/54% McCain
Predicted PVI change: R+6 => R+3

Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) is finding this to be her race to lose as Gosar is dumping this district for the open AZ-04.  Also running is Democrat Wenona Baldenegro, who was recently endorsed by Rep. Raul Grijalva.  AZ-01 drops almost all of conservative Yavapai County, but keeps the gorgeous (and liberal-leaning) town of Sedona.

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This district contains Flagstaff, the Navajo and Hopi nations (among numerous others), and rural lands in Gila, Graham, and Greenlee Counties.  Democrats have a 9.5% registration lead over Republicans in this district, but that is slightly deceptive as some of those Democrats are conservative "Pinto" Democrats.

AZ-02 (green) – Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson)
VAP: 22.0% Hispanic
48.5% Avg D/51.5% Avg R
New Numbers: 49.6% Obama/49.1% McCain
Old Numbers: 46% Obama/52% McCain
Predicted PVI change: R+4 => R+1

This district becomes bluer by losing some Republican suburbs north of Tucson.  It is legitimately swingy on paper now.

AZ-03 (dark magenta) – Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)
VAP: 55.3% Hispanic
57.4% Avg D/42.6% Avg R
New Numbers: 56.4% Obama/42.5% McCain
Old Numbers: 57% Obama/42% McCain
Predicted PVI change: Stays at D+6

This district becomes 5% more Hispanic.  However, a lot of that added Hispanic population is lower turnout, so it doesn't improve his district's partisan numbers.

AZ-04 (red) – OPEN
31.6% Avg D/68.4% Avg R
34.4% Obama/64.1% McCain
Predicted PVI: R+16

Paul Gosar is moving to Prescott so he can run here.  However, due to fundraising and staff issues, he may fall in the primary.  Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu is a name constantly thrown around when you read about which Republicans are interested in running here and Babeu does seem pretty certain to jump in.

Now, on to the five Maricopa County districts.

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AZ-05 (gold) – Jeff Flake (R-Mesa)
34.1% Avg D/65.9% Avg R
New Numbers: 36.2% Obama/62.7% McCain
Old Numbers: 38% Obama/61% McCain
Predicted PVI change: R+15 => R+16

This district changes very little.  This is Russell Pearce territory, but fortunately he was recalled from office last November.

AZ-06 (chartreuse) – David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Ben Quayle (R-Phoenix)
38.4% Avg D/61.6% Avg R
New Numbers: 41.2% Obama/57.7% McCain
Old Numbers: 47% Obama/52% McCain
Predicted PVI change: R+5 => R+10

Ben Quayle was one of the most craven people during the redistricting snafu.  Not only did he oppose the IRC's efforts, he called his mommy to lobby the Governor to remove Mathis.  FFS, Ben, you're a full-grown man!  Anyway, Ben's district (the old AZ-03) was basically shredded.  Most of it went to Schweikert and the rest went to Franks.  The only district he has any shot in is AZ-06, but this district, geographically speaking, is mostly Schweikert's turf.  It became much more Republican by dropping the Dem-leaning areas (particularly Tempe) bordering Phoenix.  Let's just say Ben Quayle is about to go the way of his father and fade into obscurity.

AZ-07 (dark grey) – Ed Pastor (D-Phoenix)
VAP: 58.1% Hispanic
67% Avg D/33% Avg R
New Numbers: 64.7% Obama/34.1% McCain
Old Numbers: 66% Obama/33% McCain
Predicted PVI change: D+13 => D+12

This district becomes more irregular-shaped to cede some Hispanic precincts to Grijalva's district, but it's no issue to Pastor in this urban Phoenix district.

AZ-08 (slate blue) – Trent Franks (R-Glendale)
36.6% Avg D/63.4% Avg R
New Numbers: 38.5% Obama/60.5% McCain
Old Numbers: 38% Obama/ 61% McCain
Predicted PVI change: Stays at R+15

Franks' district compacts entirely into Maricopa County.  This is one of the reasons why Quayle's district was shredded.

AZ-09 (cyan) – OPEN
VAP: 22.4% Hispanic
49.5% Avg D/51.5% Avg R
51.3% Obama/47.4% McCain
Predicted PVI: EVEN

This will be the place for a nice little battle royale.  This district is largely based in Tempe and took the more Democratic precincts that used to be in Scweikert's district.  Many of us here on DKE (and SSP before it) speculated that the IRC would draw a "Lean R" seat for the new 9th district, but we were pleasantly surprised to see that was not the case.  So far, the only action is on the Democratic side where a primary looms between ex-State Senate Minority Leader Kyrsten Sinema and Senator David Schapira.

Arizona redistricting was one of the more heartening political events of the past couple months.  We saw tyranny assert itself and attempt to force its will on an independent body only to be rebuked.  Justice won over tyranny and squashed attempts at intimidation.  Now that redistricting is all done, only the AZ GOP come out of it feeling ripped.  It serves them right for trying to bully the system to work their way.

Originally posted to KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:05 PM PST.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

Poll

How many districts do you predict Democrats will win in 2012?

11%22 votes
10%20 votes
31%59 votes
41%77 votes
3%7 votes

| 185 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (26+ / 0-)

    'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:05:05 PM PST

  •  Good analysis (6+ / 0-)

    The Obama percentages are very encouraging for the open 1st, 2nd, and 9th; I didn't even realize that the 2nd was an Obama plurality district.  If you adjust about 3% for McCain's home state effect, which I feel is a reasonable adjustment, that would make it an even PVI while the new 9th would be D+1 or thereabouts.

    It's sad that Giffords is resigning, since it would have been easier to hold that seat under the new lines, but at least the 1st and 9th are basically Tilt D/Lean D.

  •  rec'd for Muse reference! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8

    one of the best songs and videos of all time!

    -7.75, -6.05 And these wars; they can't be won Does anyone know or care how they begun?-Matt Bellamy

    by nicolemm on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:19:13 PM PST

  •  I voted 4. (4+ / 0-)

    Kirkpatrick needs a primary challenge, and she will get one, from Wenona Benally Baldenegro. Now, given he reputation my state enjoys, on this site and worldwide, I hesitate to share things like this, but check this out. Ready is a protege of Russell Pierce's. Russell sponsored him for membership in the Mormon church, where Nazism is apparently no barrier to membership.

    •  lol, Pearce wishes. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, Azazello, bythesea, Englishlefty

      In reality, my experiences with Mormons (one half of my family is Mormon) is they are increasingly reaching out to Latinos as well as sending more missionaries to Central America.  They have also all but censored out that infamous belief that Native Americans were given darker skin as punishment for falling from God.

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:33:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Although I liked what I read on Wenona (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, Azazello

      My only real concern with her is money.  She has little more than $20K in her campaign account while Kirkpatrick has no less than $450K in hers.

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:34:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And OMG, Ready is now a Democrat!?!?! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Azazello, PSzymeczek

      WTF.  This guy was a GOP precinct committee chairman several years back.  I wanna puke....

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:35:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Great Analysis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Mother Mags

    I think we've got a great shot at picking up a few seats in Arizona and hopefully holding onto Giffords's seat.  Who do you think will replace her in the special election?

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:39:58 PM PST

  •  Thanks, and well done! (5+ / 0-)

    Now I think I understand more about Arizona politics, and it's not as batshit irrational as I believed it was.

    All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

    by Dave in Northridge on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 06:48:15 PM PST

  •  Nice write-up (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, dufffbeer, Mother Mags

    Arizona will be an exciting state next year, and I fully expect Obama to contest it with McCain not his opponent this time.  Take out the home-state effect and Obama would have  won five of the state's nine new congressional districts (and probably would have narrowly won the state).  All in all I think it's a pretty fair map, since the GOP gets four beyond safe seats, we get two, and the remaining three are all swingy.  If the GOP can avoid nominating Republicans from the Russel Pearce wing of the party, they have a decent chance of going 7-2 on us.  But I'm optimistic about our chances and we're probably headed for 4 or 5 seats.

  •  Wow, just wow. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn

    I had convinced myself that we had just gotten fair maps--that Mathis was truly "independent" and the maps were designed to respect communities of interest and only happened to benefit Democrats.

    Now, I can't believe that. It is just too perfect. Every single safe GOP district gets further packed and increases R performance. Every single safe Democratic district spreads the love around and decreases D performance. Every single competitive gets better for Democrats and the new 9th district is Democratic leaning.

    Every elementary gerrymanderer knows this is basic gerrymandering strategy--packing R's and unpacking D's. This maps deliberately helps us--can it be otherwise?

    •  That's one way to look at it. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, bythesea

      The GOP members on the commission repeatedly spoke of "hyper-packing of Republicans".  However, the only place I see that claim being accurate is with AZ-06 as it goes from Lean R to Safe R, freeing up Dem areas for AZ-09.

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 07:52:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I tend to think that is also the best example. (2+ / 0-)

        Probably much of the Dem increase in AZ-01 was due to combining the Navajo and Hopi reservations, although I'm not positive. The redistribution of Democrats from Grijalva's to Gifford's districts could have been coincidental in reaching specific goals I'm unaware of, like population equality or COI or compactness.

        But clearly AZ-09 is not particularly compact, and I think it's reasonable to conclude that it was designed to create a Democratic favored district. It only takes one example to show that Mathis had at least partly partisan intentions.

        •  The Hopi reservation is only ~7000 people. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bfen, Englishlefty

          It's a drop in the bucket for a Congressional district.

          However, yes, AZ-09 is clearly an example that she was actively supporting another competitive district at the expense of Republicans.

          'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 09:46:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, okay. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, Azazello

            I'm surprised the district is more than 20% Native American, then. I guess the Navajo res must be a lot bigger??

            I think that is something to consider with Baldenegro's primary challenge to Kirkpatrick. Certainly between Natives and Hispanics the Democratic primary will be majority minority. I think the default assumption should be that Hispanics are up for grabs by either candidate, but it remains to be seen how that dynamic will play out. I could see Baldenegro gathering a lot of Hispanic support as the minority candidate. Of course, primary turnout is probably much lower in those groups, but perhaps Baldenegro will draw more of them out. Combine that with Baldenegro's status as the more progressive candidate in the race and I think there could be more to this race than meets the eye.

            Fundraising is obviously something she'll have to work on... I'll be interested to see her 4Q numbers.

            •  Yes, there are a lot more Navajo. (0+ / 0-)

              I don't know how many, though.  90,000?

              'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

              by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:19:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  The 1st (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, bfen

              also includes five Apache reservations of various size, the Hualapai nation, the Havasupai nation, and the Kaibab nation. The Native populations in cities like Flagstaff, Winslow, Williams, Globe, and Payson are significant, too.

              24 ~ AZ-01 ~ that flagstaff dude on SSP

              by Fox Ringo on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 02:14:12 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I forgot (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                The First also takes in the Ak-Chin Community near Casa Grande as well as the Pima-Gila River Indian Reservation. And Payson's been put in the 2nd. A few of those Apache mini-reservations might be in the 2nd, too.

                24 ~ AZ-01 ~ that flagstaff dude on SSP

                by Fox Ringo on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 02:28:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  intentions (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          The commission put a high priority on competitiveness, and tried to create as many 50-50 seats as they could while respecting compactness and communities of interest. Of course, this ended up taking 3 seats from light red to purple. They might have taken a different approach if those seats started as light blue, but that's moot.

          AZ9 would have been more compact if they had used the middle of Mesa instead of the middle of Phoenix, but probably worse on the community-of-interest measure as the Phoenix piece is more culturally similar to the rest of the district than the Mesa piece would be. Of course, including the Phoenix piece makes it more competitive.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 10:47:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  One way to look at it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, dufffbeer, Englishlefty

      is that the previous maps (from 2002) were overly favorable to the GOP when they packed Democrats into just two seats and left the remaining six GOP-leaning.  Yes, we did take three of the GOP seats in 2006 and 2008 but then again we were taking seats from Alabama to Idaho that were much redder.  The old map was overall still very favorable to Republicans.

      So I see this map as being more fair.  A true Democratic gerrymander in Arizona could get five fairly safe Democratic seats, with a potentially swingy 6th seat.  One thing that benefits us very much in Arizona is that Republican-heavy areas are naturally grouped together.  So a map that just divides areas by natural geographic areas tends to pack Republicans anyway.  This is very clear in Phoenix and its suburbs.  The same dynamic often works against us in other states, such as Michigan where Republicans are spread throughout most of the state relatively thinly, but Democrats are incredibly concentrated in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint in the state's southeast corner.  Thus, even an independent commission in Michigan would probably end up drawing a very GOP-friendly map.

    •  what indicated that to me, the instant I first (3+ / 0-)

      looked at the map, was that they pulled all of Yavapai County out of the 1st, except for the Democratic-leaning towns in the northeast.  Now tell me that wasn't done for partisan reasons.  It was completely unnecessary to do.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:30:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        They could easily have put 100% of Yavapai County in the 4th and make up for the population taken from the 1st by giving it more of Pinal County.  That would somewhat counterbalance the loss of Prescott.

        Also, in a meeting of the Yavapai GOP where Gosar was introducing himself as the candidate for the 4th, Gosar's aide said that his boss wouldn't have won in 2010 if it wasn't for Yavapai.

        'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:42:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I did just that. (0+ / 0-)

          It turns AZ-01 into a 47.5% Obama district, a mere 0.4% decrease.

          'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:53:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  As of now... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            the First already violates the community of interest standard to some degree. Putting more of Pinal County in the First at the expense of Yavapai could be a bit of an over-reach. The exurbs and agricultural communities of Pinal County have little to nothing in common with Yavapai or Coconino County.

            24 ~ AZ-01 ~ that flagstaff dude on SSP

            by Fox Ringo on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 02:18:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  How would you change this AZ-01? (0+ / 0-)

              'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

              by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 08:44:09 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Good question... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                When I played around with AZ in Dave's app I found that it was impossible to keep parts of Pinal out of the First if northern Arizona was split or if it didn't stretch further south into Cochise. The community of interest standard was very hard to nail down this time around.

                24 ~ AZ-01 ~ that flagstaff dude on SSP

                by Fox Ringo on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 08:06:57 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  love the MUSE reference (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Nice work on the analysis too.

    Proud to share my name with Howard Dean

    by DeanNC on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 08:08:54 PM PST

  •  why do you not mention Wenona Baldenegro (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    for the  1st?
    you refer to  this being 'Anne Kirkpatrick's district  to lose', but Wenona Baldenegro is a very  intelligent ,savvy  Democratic  candidate for office in this district. she is a Harvard educated Navajo woman and has  a very strong grass roots campaign going. she's received many important endorsements including Grijalva's.  yet more than once i have seen her excluded from mention when discussing the upcoming race in the first.

    •  I guess money is the reason (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Kirkpatrick is a former incumbent and is raising a lot of money.  Baldenegro, not so much.  With this being a top-tier race in a politically even district, a lot of institutional support (and cash) is going to go to Kirkpatrick.  She will easily raise over a million dollars by the end.

      Wenona Baldenegro sounds like a great candidate but I don't think she can beat Kirkpatrick in the primary.

  •  I think any way you look at it (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, sawolf

    Kirkpatrick is the stronger candidate in District 1. She's practically the incumbent, having represented nearly all of the district before. And she isn't even a conservative Democrat - as I recall she was pretty mainline. It's surely not a liberal district and we'd go wrong nominating a liberal.  

    Also, I find the chants "What do we want?" "Dead Nazis." in the end of that video to be almost as disturbing as the Nazis themselves. That isn't the kind of thing that should be chanted at a respectable counter-protest.

  •  it just seems odd to me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    regardless of who you see as the favorite or most well funded.

    Baldenegro is mounting a very up front, honest campaign and will be primarying Kirkpatrick. she has gotten high profile endorsements, enough i think to at least be mentioned as part of the equation.
    i respectfully submit that it  seems presumptuous to  omit her name completely when discussing the dynamics of the district, especially as Kirkpatrick is not the current incumbent.

  •  thanks for the breakdown ,i'm in the new 2nd (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Azazello

    the old 8th, and  after today's news it will sure be interesting to see who runs.

  •  Good Job (0+ / 0-)

    I tried to find out the stats, but Silverlight is crashing. Great news for the 9th.

  •  I didn't realize or remember that Gabby's seat (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn, TofG

    (which this will always be to me) was now an Obama district.  I think that means we'll win it.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 10:32:46 PM PST

  •  The Republican primary in the 4th (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    will be entertaining. Also running is state senator Ron Gould. He's got name recognition in the state and is popular amongst the rank-and-file GOP in Arizona. It'll be quite the battle of personalities, and we can find out which region is most dominant in the 2nd. Gould's from AZ's West Coast (Lake Havasu, I think). Babeau will carry Pinal County. Gosar's best shot is shoring up the conservatives in Yavapai County.

    24 ~ AZ-01 ~ that flagstaff dude on SSP

    by Fox Ringo on Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 02:24:56 PM PST

  •  nice summary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, KingofSpades

    saddened that I will not be able to oppose the asinine Jesse Kelly in Gabby's old district, but happy to know I am in District 1 now with its excellent Dem pickup prospect.

    OK. And now we begin the part of the show where we pull out individual words and phrases of the commenter to try to determine the "real" meaning of the comment.... let the games begin.

    by hillbrook green on Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 09:13:00 AM PST

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