Redistricting in New York is a fantastic example of the gerrymandering process.
In New York a task force known as The New York State Legislative Task Force on Demographic Research and Reapportionment which is appointed by the state legislators and consisting primarily of state legislators is tasked with drawing their own lines. The way this works in practice is that the Democrat dominated Assembly draws Assembly district lines to protect and advance its majority and its incumbent members and the Republican dominated (barely) Senate draws Senate district lines to protect and advance its majority and its incumbent members.
I won't go into details here but there is also a completely nonsensical and screwy piece of math determined in 1890 and based on political life in 1890 that is used to determine the number of Senate districts. Using a baseline of 50 districts and supposedly growing with the population that number was raised to 62 in 2002 and the maps released by the Senate (along with a supporting memo a few days ago) created a highly controversial 63rd district this year.
What follows below is a quick analysis of how one creates a new district out of thin upstate air and thinner upstate bodies in order to attempt to maintain a party majority that doesn't even come close to reflecting a states actual population or political leanings.
Based on state-wide population, and granting a 63rd Senate district, a perfect district size would be 307,588 people per district. I'm too lazy to look it up again to make sure I have it right but as I recall current state law allows for a population variance of no more than 10% between the largest and smallest districts. Effectively then a district can be created as small as 292,209 (-5%) and as large as 322,967 (+5%).
Republicans hold 32 seats in the current 62 seat Senate. The fact is that the only way they do so (Assembly Democrats hold virtually 2/3's of the 150 assembly seats) is the outrageous gerrymander of 2002 and the fact that several districts that otherwise vote reliably, albeit narrowly, Democratic consistently vote for the same Republican fossil Senator year after year. In order to maintain a Republican majority this trend must continue. Districts must be outrageously gerrymandered and slim Democratic districts must continue to elect Republicans to the Senate. In order to enhance their chances Republicans have created a new, 63rd district, crafted to elect a specific Republican, Assemblyman George Amedore, but even this district is a narrowly Democratic favoring district.
Current Senate maps can be found here.
The newly proposed Senate maps can be found here.
I have used Dave's Redistricting App to render the upstate districts as close as I can. There are some variances but for upstate they are fairly negligible.
Here is a wide view of upstate New York:
More focused view of Western New York (Dist 57 & 59-63)
Focusing in closer at Erie County and the City of Buffalo (Dist's 60, 63 and portions of 59 & 61). Here we see District 60 in yellow snaking along the water shore to connect the northern suburbs with the southern suburbs in order to save Mark Grisanti, a Democrat turned Republican, that won a heavily Democrat-dominated city based district that he would almost certainly lose this year.
Moving to Monroe County we see the City of Rochester carved up into three districts (Dist's 61, 56 & 55) all of which are Democratic voter dominated but held by Republicans. One of whom again, is a Democrat turned Republican.
Here we have a wider view of west-central New York from Binghamtom (Dist 52) in the southeast corner to Rochester (Dist 54-56) in the northwest corner and including the city of Syracuse (Dist's 50 & 53) and the college town of Ithaca. Note in the middle where three districts (58, 54, & 51) carve up Tompkins County, the home to Ithaca and a heavily liberal democratic city and county swallowing up those votes in the more heavily Republican dominated surrounding rural areas.
The City of Syracuse and most of Onondaga County (Dist 50 & 53). The grey district is held by an independent Democrat David Valesky.
East-central New York (Dist's 51-53) where the infamous "Abraham Lincoln riding a lawn mower" district used to exist. It still exists (in brown) and still outrageously gerrymandered. It just doesn't stand out as visually as it used to when it included all of Herkimer County. It now no longer includes Honest Abe's top hat.
The North Country (primarily Dist's 45, 47, 48 & 49). A large portion of this map is home to the Adirondacks and is sparsely populated. It is also home to several state prisons consequently the population numbers from Dave's app do not match the numbers released by Latfor. Where prison populations were counted has been a very contentious issue with recent legislation requiring they be counted at their last known address rather than where imprisoned. This too had been a tactic for Republicans creating more upstate districts then ought to exist.
The Capital District (Dist's 43, 44, 46 & 49) and Albany county. Albany County has always been just one district as its population numbers almost match a perfect Senate district. This year it is carved up to help create the new 63rd district. Simultaneously the Democrat dominated cities of Troy and Rensselaer are carved out of Rensselaer County and added to Albany County thereby helping protect Republican Roy McDonald in the 43rd.
And the new 63rd district. It is numbered 46 but it is the new one seen here in orange. It stretches from (Republican) Montgomery County through the rural and suburban (Republican) portions of Schenectady County; through the (mostly Republican) hilltowns of Albany County; into the Catskill mountains including all of (Republican) Greene County; and down into Democratic dominated Ulster County including the towns of Woodstock ... "by the time I got to Woodstock we were half a [Republican dominated district] strong"... and Saugerties and down into and past the city of Kingston. The result is in fact a narrowly Democrat-favoring district but one that looks like a lot of other ostensibly democratic favoring districts that regularly send Republicans to the State Senate.
Moving further south we see the bulk of the Hudson River valley districts (Dist's 38-42) that are all carved to be narrowly democratic favoring but which almost all send Republicans to the Senate.
And finally a closer view of Rockland and Westchester Counties and districts that begin to stretch into the Bronx (Dist's 34-38).
These maps cover districts 63 in Buffalo down to #34 mostly in the Bronx. According to Latfor's population numbers these upstate district were all shorted the maximum allowable 5% of population which was the only way to create a new 63rd district in Republican leaning upstate instead of Democrat dominated New York City where it belonged (if it deserved to exist at all).
District 63 population: 292,474 ... Deviation: -14,882 ... Deviation percentage: -4.84
District 62 population: 292,166 ... Deviation: -15,190 ... Deviation percentage: -4.94
District 61 population: 292,556 ... Deviation: -14,800 ... Deviation percentage: -4.82
District 60 population: 292,848 ... Deviation: -14,508 ... Deviation percentage: -4.72
District 59 population: 292,194 ... Deviation: -15,162 ... Deviation percentage: -4.93
District 58 population: 292,933 ... Deviation: -14,423 ... Deviation percentage: -4.69
District 57 population: 292,081 ... Deviation: -15,275 ... Deviation percentage: -4.97
District 56 population: 292,182 ... Deviation: -15,174 ... Deviation percentage: -4.94
District 55 population: 292,182 ... Deviation: -15,174 ... Deviation percentage: -4.94
District 54 population: 292,547 ... Deviation: -14,809 ... Deviation percentage: -4.82
District 53 population: 292,240 ... Deviation: -15,116 ... Deviation percentage: -4.92
District 52 population: 292,497 ... Deviation: -14,859 ... Deviation percentage: -4.83
District 51 population: 292,402 ... Deviation: -14,954 ... Deviation percentage: -4.87
District 50 population: 292,547 ... Deviation: -14,809 ... Deviation percentage: -4.82
District 49 population: 292,749 ... Deviation: -14,607 ... Deviation percentage: -4.75
District 48 population: 292,870 ... Deviation: -14,486 ... Deviation percentage: -4.71
District 47 population: 293,195 ... Deviation: -14,161 ... Deviation percentage: -4.61
District 46 population: 292,750 ... Deviation: -14,606 ... Deviation percentage: -4.75
District 45 population: 293,101 ... Deviation: -14,255 ... Deviation percentage: -4.64
District 44 population: 292,749 ... Deviation: -14,607 ... Deviation percentage: -4.75
District 43 population: 292,750 ... Deviation: -14,606 ... Deviation percentage: -4.75
District 42 population: 292,531 ... Deviation: -14,825 ... Deviation percentage: -4.82
District 41 population: 306,760 ... Deviation: -596 ... Deviation percentage: -0.19
District 40 population: 302,408 ... Deviation: -4,948 ... Deviation percentage: -1.61
District 39 population: 293,888 ... Deviation: -13,468 ... Deviation percentage: -4.38
District 38 population: 292,208 ... Deviation: -11,148 ... Deviation percentage: -3.63
District 37 population: 307,463 ... Deviation: -107 ... Deviation percentage: -0.03
District 36 population: 318,021 ... Deviation: +10,665 ... Deviation percentage: +3.47
District 35 population: 307,463 ... Deviation: +107 ... Deviation percentage: -0.03
Note: District 36 is the only majority minority (in this case African American) district on this chart. Can you say... "packing?" I knew that you could.
Rough election numbers according to Dave's Redistricting Tool:
Dist 63: 72.9% Obama - 69.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 58 - Tim Kennedy (D)
Dist 62: 47.8% Obama - 45.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 62 - George Maziarz (R)
Dist 61: 52.3% Obama - 48.4% avg Dem - currently Dist 61 - Michael Ranzenhofer (R)
Dist 60: 56.2% Obama - 51.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 60 - Mark Grisanti (R)
Dist 59: 46.7% Obama - 44.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 59 - Patrick Gallivan (R)
Dist 58: 51.2% Obama - 52.1% avg Dem - currently Dist 53 - Thomas O'Mara (R)
Dist 57: 45.4% Obama - 43.4% avg Dem - currently Dist 57 - Catherine Young (R)
Dist 56: 58.9% Obama - 60.7% avg Dem - currently Dist 56 - Joe Robach (R)
Dist 55: 57.4% Obama - 57.5% avg Dem - currently Dist 55 - James Alesi (R)
Dist 54: 49.5% Obama - 51.6% avg Dem - currently Dist 54 - Michael Nozzolio (R)
Dist 53: 61.6% Obama - 61.7% avg Dem - currently Dist 49 - David Valesky (I-D)
Dist 52: 51.0% Obama - 49.4% avg Dem - currently Dist 52 - Tom Libous (R)
Dist 51: 50.8% Obama - 51.0% avg Dem - currently Dist 51 - James Seward (R)
Dist 50: 54.5% Obama - 56.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 50 - John DeFrancisco (R)
Dist 49: 51.1% Obama - 51.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 44 - Hugh Farley (R)
Dist 48: 49.8% Obama - 54.5% avg Dem - currently Dist 48 - Patty Ritchie (R)
Dist 47: 48.0% Obama - 54.1% avg Dem - currently Dist 47 - Joseph Griffo (R)
Dist 46: 53.5% Obama - 55.7% avg Dem - the new 63rd District created for Republican Assemblyman George Amedore (R)
Dist 45: 55.2% Obama - 55.5% avg Dem - currently Dist 45 - Betty Little (R)
Dist 44: 65.7% Obama - 67.0% avg Dem - currently Dist 46 - Neil Breslin (D)
Dist 43: 52.5% Obama - 54.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 43 - Roy McDonald (R)
Dist 42: 54.1% Obama - 54.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 42 - John Bonacic (R)
Dist 41: 54.0% Obama - 54.3% avg Dem - currently Dist 41 - Stephen Saland (R)
Dist 40: 53.1% Obama - 54.8% avg Dem - currently Dist 40 - Greg Ball (R)
Dist 39: 51.5% Obama - 55.9% avg Dem - currently Dist 39 - William Larkin (R)
Dist 38: 54.1% Obama - 59.7% avg Dem - currently Dist 38 - David Carlucci (I-D)
Dist 37: 56.3% Obama - 55.2% avg Dem - currently Dist 37 - Suzi Oppenheimer (D)-retiring
Dist 36: 92.2% Obama - 93.2% avg Dem - currently Dist 36 - Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D)
Dist 35: 71.8% Obama - 70.7% avg Dem - currently Dist 35 - Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D)
Governor Cuomo has threatened to Veto these district lines and I wholeheartedly support that veto. A fair and non-partisan redistricting would result in districts that are, first of all essentially equal in population and therefore representation, and secondarily return a Democratic majority Senate approaching 2/3's.
There is no reason to accept these district lines. Senate Republicans hold very few bargaining chips. There are 3 of any value that I can think of.
1. Not shown here is that the New York City maps, similarly gerrymandered but packed to 5% over population in most cases, combine several sitting Democratic Senators into the same districts. Republicans could agree to redrawing those lines without changing the power balance.
2. Senate Republicans could offer to let the Assembly Democrats have a free hand in drawing the Congressional districts which haven't been drawn yet. This is usually a split task designed to protect all incumbents. New York loses 2 districts this year and the map could easily be drawn to make almost all Republican congressional seats in New York go away.
3. Senate Republicans could agree to a state constitutional amendment to create a non-partisan, independent redistricting commission for 2022.
Senate Republicans will be hard pressed to maintain their majority even with this horrific gerrymander. Any sort of fair mapping will eliminate their party from their last hold on power in the state.
UPDATE:
The schedule of LATFOR hearings can be found here.
The first is:
Monday, January 30
Albany – 10:30 A.M.
Legislative Office Bldg
2nd Floor – Hearing Rm A
Albany, NY 12248