Daily Kos

THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: In the wake of last weekend's South Carolina primary, we expected a Newt Gingrich surge in the polling. Indeed, to an extent, that has come to pass this week. But that surge in Florida lasted a matter of hours before Mitt Romney began to bury Gingrich, first in a stronger-than-expected Monday debate performance, and then beneath the weight of a boatload of paid media in the Sunshine State.

The net result: Mitt's position nationally, and in key post-Florida states, appears to be a bit compromised at present. But his position in Florida is comparably strong, allowing for the very real probability that the GOP "frontrunner" baton will be passed nationally ... yet again ... by the time the Digest comes around next weekend.

Note that where a pollster released multiple polls this week, the most recent poll is the one that is posted. That explains why Rasmussen and Quinnipiac, who released two polls this week, had Romney ahead, but PPP (which only released one poll early in the week) had Gingrich out in front. Ironically, though PPP looks like an outlier here because their release was on Monday, they were actually the least optimistic about the Gingrich boom at the time: Insider Advantage was Gingrich +8, and Rasmussen was Gingrich +9.

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Gingrich 32, Romney 26, Paul 13, Santorum 13

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Gingrich 37, Romney 28, Santorum 18, Paul 12

NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Gingrich 35, Romney 28, Santorum 16, Paul 10

NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Romney 31, Gingrich 29, Paul 13, Santorum 11

ARIZONA (American Research Group): Gingrich 32, Romney 32, Paul 12, Santorum 10

FLORIDA (American Research Group): Romney 41, Gingrich 34, Santorum 9, Paul 7

FLORIDA (Cherry Communications for the FL Chamber of Commerce): Gingrich 33, Romney 33, Santorum 10, Paul 6

FLORIDA (CNN/Time/Opinion Research): Romney 36, Gingrich 34, Santorum 11, Paul 9

FLORIDA (Dixie Strategies/First Coast News): Gingrich 35, Romney 35, Santorum 9, Paul 7

FLORIDA (Insider Advantage): Romney 40, Gingrich 32, Paul 9, Santorum 8

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney 42, Gingrich 31, Santorum 14, Paul 6

FLORIDA (Monmouth/SurveyUSA): Romney 39, Gingrich 32, Santorum 11, Paul 8

FLORIDA (PPP): Gingrich 38, Romney 33, Santorum 13, Paul 10

FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney 38, Gingrich 29, Paul 14, Santorum 12

FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 39, Gingrich 31, Santorum 12, Paul 9

FLORIDA (Reuters/Ipsos--Internet Sample): Romney 41, Gingrich 33, Santorum 13, Paul 5

FLORIDA (VSS/Sunshine State News): Romney 42, Gingrich 32, Santorum 12, Paul 9

FLORIDA (War Room Logistics): Romney 40, Gingrich 30, Santorum 15, Paul 6

FLORIDA (We Ask America): Romney 34, Gingrich 32, Santorum 9, Paul 8

MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Romney 31, Gingrich 26, Paul 14, Santorum 10

MINNESOTA (PPP): Gingrich 36, Romney 18, Santorum 17, Paul 13

NEVADA (Winning Our Future PAC): Romney 33, Gingrich 31, Paul 8, Santorum 7

LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: Here is where the case can be made that the Newt versus Mitt steel cage match that is the Republican presidential primary is paying at least some dividends for the president. His standing in general election trial heats has been pretty decent for a while, especially when matched with approval and favorability ratings that have been fairly weak.

What we are seeing now are incrementally better trial heat stats. What we are also seeing, perhaps more importantly, is a marked improvement in the president's approval and favorability numbers. There is something to be said, apparently, for looking better by comparison. And with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich dominating the airwaves, there seems to be at least a slight retrofitting of public opinion toward Barack Obama. Given this fact, team Obama might be fine with these guys battling it out through Super Tuesday, or perhaps even later.

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama d. Romney (49-43); Obama d. Santorum (53-38); Obama d. Gingrich (55-37); Obama d. Romney and Ron Paul (45-32-18)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-39)

NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Obama d. Romney (47-41); Obama d. Paul (47-40); Obama d. Gingrich (49-39); Obama d. Santorum (49-39)

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney d. Obama (48-44)

FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Obama tied with Romney (45-45); Obama d. Paul (47-39); Obama d. Santorum (49-40); Obama d. Gingrich (50-39)

FLORIDA (Suffolk Univ): Romney d. Obama (47-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-40)

MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama d. Romney (48-40); Obama d. Gingrich (51-38)

MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-41); Obama d. Santorum (52-40); Obama d. Paul (51-38); Obama d. Gingrich (53-38)

NEW YORK (NY1/YNN/Marist): Obama d. Romney (58-35); Obama d. Santorum (61-33); Obama d. Gingrich (63-31); Obama d. Paul (62-28)

NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas/National Research--R): Romney d. Obama (48-39)

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (48-40)

THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE

AT THE POLLS: When Republican Rep. Connie Mack made a late entry into the Senate race in Florida, the race rocketed onto everyone's target lists for November. Polling this week on the race painted a varied picture of the state of the contest in the Sunshine State. Democrats will no doubt embrace a Suffolk poll released Thursday, which gave incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson a 42-32 lead over Mack, and larger leads of 19-24 points over the balance of the GOP field in the unlikely event that Mack does not survive the GOP primary. The Suffolk survey, incidentally, had Romney +5 in the presidential general election, making a lib'rul bias charge a tougher sell. Then, at the start of the weekend, contrary evidence popped up in the form of another poll in the Sunshine State by Mason Dixon. This poll painted a considerably more pessimistic picture for the incumbent, staking Nelson to just a three-point lead (45-42) over Mack. Again, if Mack somehow fails to earn the nomination, Nelson's lead moves easily into double digits.

Another Democratic seat is not likely to be on many target lists for November, and new PPP numbers out of the upper Midwest help to explain why a road to a Republican majority is not likely to come through Minnesota. Even if Republicans were to try to tap one of their better-known Republicans (either former Gov. Tim Pawlenty or Rep. Michele Bachmann), Democratic incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar would have a sizeable lead. She smoked Pawlenty by a 54-39 margin, and dropped an even bigger lead on Bachmann (58-35). Against the trio of lesser-known Republicans that are actually bothering to wage a campaign, Klobuchar gets 55 percent of the vote. Her Republican challengers, meanwhile, languish between 29-32 percent. As a bonus, PPP looked ahead to 2014, when Republicans are expected to make a run at freshman Democrat Al Franken. For what its worth (and 33 months out, it ain't worth too much), Franken would also beat Pawlenty or Bachmann, by margins ranging from 6-15 points.

We also get an intriguing little polling McNugget from Indiana, courtesy of some internal polling from veteran incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar. In what is clearly a little lesson in "electability," allies of Lugar have dropped numbers from a December Public Opinion Strategies poll claiming that Lugar would easily top likely Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly (58-32). However, the poll warns, if Lugar's conservative rival Richard Mourdock were to best Lugar in the GOP primary, he would be no better than even money against Donnelly (42-42). Conspicuously absent, however, from the article is any mention of a trial heat of that Republican primary. Predictably, earlier polling varied wildly on the party releasing the numbers, with Team Mourdock claiming a close race, and Team Lugar claiming a reasonably comfortable lead.

One primary poll of note, though it is far from a shocker: in Michigan, former Rep. Peter Hoesktra is using superior name recognition to stomp his likely GOP challengers. Hoekstra (40 percent) had a dominant edge over teabagger fave Clark Durant (3 percent), with any other GOP contenders faring even worse. Curiously, the article did not offer general election numbers, though those are probably coming soon. One hint: the poll noted that Stabenow's favorables sat at a reasonably solid 52 percent.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

• The thoughts of a number of Senate watchers this week has been on the health of Illinois freshman Republican Sen. Mark Kirk. Kirk, only 52 years of age, suffered a stroke early in the week. While there have been some encouraging signs, a long road to recovery awaits, for which we here at Daily Kos Elections wish him all the best.
• Polling released last week showed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand with solid numbers as she seeks her first full term. And, if this first week is an indication of how potential New York GOP challenger Mark Cenedella is going to fare on the big stage, she's probably not sweating it. Needless to say, the new guy did not have a particularly stellar first week, from a publicity standpoint. He will be able to self-fund, however, which will put him a cut above "some dude" status. That said, it is a presidential turnout year. In New York. So, hey ... good luck with that, dude.
• We'll see how this pans out, but at least it looks like they are serious. Early in the week, the two principals in what might be the most high-profile Senate battle in Massachusetts since John Kerry and Bill Weld got after it sixteen years ago agreed to take measures to keep third-party spending out of their race. The critical component of the agreement is that the campaigns will donate 50 cents to charity out of their campaign warchests for every dollar spent by a third-party group in their races. One of Brown's biggest superPAC benefactors (Rove's Crossroads GPS group) seemed initially reluctant to play along. So, as they say, stay tuned.

THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE

AT THE POLLS: Courtesy of our polling pals at PPP and the Democratic-supportive House Majority PAC, we have (count 'em!) eight polls of competitive 2012 House races across the country. In races where the Democratic nominee is either unclear or little known, the crew at PPP paired GOP incumbents with what I suppose we must call "Democratic Jesus" (also known as a generic Democrat). In those cases where the likely Democratic nominee was a known quantity, however, PPP did named trial heats. The results, on balance, have to be pretty heartening for the Democrats:

IL-08: Generic Democrat 49, Rep. Joe Walsh (R) 35
MI-01: Gary McDowell (D) 46, Rep. Dan Benishek (R) 41
OH-07: Generic Democrat 43, Rep. Robert Gibbs (R) 42
OH-16: Rep. Betty Sutton (D) 46, Rep. Jim Renacci (R) 46
MD-06: Generic Democrat 42, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 42
OH-06: Rep. Bill Johnson (R) 42, Charlie Wilson (D) 41
IA-04: Rep. Steve King (R) 49, Christie Vilsack (D) 43
CO-03: Rep. Scott Tipton (R) 46, Sal Pace (D) 39

There was also a curious poll of some races on the Left Coast this week. There's so much that is sketchy about this set of polls that I advise a lot of salt here, but in the name of giving you all the numbers, for good or for ill, here's what you've got. An organization called the Independent Voter Network has apparently been polling a handful of districts in California. It appears to be an effort to show that with the new open primaries here in California, Independent candidacies by well-known local figures could thrive. So they tested well-known partisan figures (Bob Hertzberg in Los Angeles, Steve Peace in San Diego), but as nonpartisan candidates. Those numbers seem to be their main thrust, but they also released standard numbers that might be worth noting. In the "clash of the Democratic titans" in CA-30, the poll finds that veteran Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman has a sizeable lead (34-14) over longtime Democratic Rep. Howard Berman, who has a monstrous funding edge. Republican Mark Reed slides between them at 30 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, down in San Diego's CA-52, the IVN poll shows Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray and former Democratic state legislator Lori Saldana advancing to the general election. The pollster (who, curiously, is left nameless) then tested a general election matchup between Bilbray and Saldana, and actually found the incumbent trailing by a single point (39-38), with possible Democratic challenger Scott Peters also up by one point.

On the primary elections front, my favorite poll of the week might've come from down South. That's because in the Huntsville-based AL-05, turncoat former Rep. Parker Griffith (who defected from the Democrats to the GOP during his freshman year in Congress) is finding that absence is most definitely not making Alabama hearts grow fonder. The man who replaced him in Congress, GOP Rep. Mo Brooks, unveiled a Public Opinion Strategies poll this week of the primary challenge between himself and Griffith. It is not just that Griffith is losing in his comeback bid, it is that he is getting positively whomped: he trailed Brooks 71-14 in the survey.

Meanwhile, out west we get a pair of polls. In the newly-created AZ-04, being an incumbent clearly doesn't mean as much if you've represented very little of the district you are trying to occupy. Such is the apparent dilemma for freshman Republican Rep. Paul Gosar, who ran several points behind local sheriff Paul Babeu in a new poll conducted for Babeu's campaign by Public Opinion Strategies. Babeu notched 31 percent of the vote in the survey, versus just 23 percent for Gosar and 19 percent for state senator Ron Gould. Meanwhile, in the pending special election in Gabby Giffords' AZ-08, 2010 challenger Jesse Kelly has released internal polling which claimed an edge over two contenders in a prospective GOP primary. The poll, conducted this week after Giffords' resignation announcement, had Kelly at 35 percent, ahead of both state senator Frank Antenori (15 percent) and University of Arizona basketball voice Dave Sitton (7 percent).

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

• For those of us that know him (and like him), Thursday was a bit of a heartbreak: netroots fave and veteran Democratic Rep. Brad Miller announced that he would retire, rather than primary fellow Democratic Rep. David Price in NC-04. Miller and Price were thrust into the same district by the Republican redistricting in the state, which left the state with only three reliably Democratic districts (likely to be held by Price, Mel Watt, and G.K. Butterfield). With the retirement of Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue on the same morning, Miller's name immediately was bandied about for that vacancy. The Congressman addressed it on his Facebook page, in his own inimitable style.
• The other big heartbreak of the week, though this one was somewhat expected, was the formal resignation of Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords from her seat in AZ-08. In a rather odd quirk, the special election to replace Giffords will take place in the "old" district for Giffords, which is a tad more GOP than the new district (renumbered "AZ-02"). As a result, the new member of Congress will only have about five months of incumbency before running for a seat which will be at least a few points more Democratic than the one he/she will be occupying. The schedule was set on Friday for the special election, with a primary taking place on April 17th, followed by the general election on June 12th. Two Republicans leaped into the race quickly: state senator Frank Antenori and Giffords' 2010 GOP opponent, Jesse Kelly.
• On the redistricting front, it was a pretty mild week. In some late breaking news on Friday, the state senate in Kentucky agreed to delay the filing deadline for Congressional races for a week, as it looked increasingly unlikely that a deal on the new maps would be in place before next Tuesday's filing deadline. Meanwhile, it looked like the GOP in Florida might be edging closer to finalizing their maps. Finally, in a surprising and potentially pleasing development, the hot rumor out of Texas is that a deal might be in the works which would settle the pending lawsuits over Texas' federal map in a way very amenable to the Democrats. 'Tis only a rumor to this point, but one that bears watching next week.

THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE

AT THE POLLS: Only one poll on the statehouse front was released this week, but it was a pretty big one. It was also probably a bit of a downer for Democrats, who probably expected slightly better numbers out of Wisconsin. The poll, conducted by Marquette Law School (who will be regularly conducting polls this year under the watchful eye of Pollster co-founder Charles Franklin), found that Republican Gov. Scott Walker would start off a likely recall effort with a narrow edge over the likeliest Democratic suitors. Former Democratic Rep. David Obey (49-43) and 2010 Democratic opponent Tom Barrett (50-44) came the closest for the Democrats. The two announced candidates, former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk (49-42) and state senator Tim Cullen (50-40) lagged slightly behind.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

• Speaking of the recall elections in Wisconsin, we are getting our first idea of when the recalls might take place. An attorney for the General Accountability Board (the state agency charged with conducting the elections) cited late June as the earliest date for a recall election. The GAB and state Democrats are locking horns a bit, as well. The board is asking for additional time to review the petitions, while the Democrats are concerned that additional delays could push the recalls deeper into the summer, and that the difference in timing could, in theory, give Walker enough time to sufficiently rehabilitate his image. On Wednesday, a Dane County court granted the GAB an additional 30 days to complete their process.
• When our polling pals at PPP head into the field this weekend in North Carolina, they'll be looking at a very different gubernatorial landscape. That is because on Thursday, incumbent Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue announced that she would retire rather than run for a second term. Perdue has never been able to get ahead of the curve politically, consistently trailing GOP challenger (and 2008 opponent) Pat McCrory in poll after poll. This opens up the prospects for Democrats, and quite candidly could create a more winnable race for them. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton waited about 15 minutes to jump into the race. Dalton trailed McCrory by a tad more than Perdue in PPP polling in 2011, but as a lesser-known quantity, it has to be conceded that he might have more "upside". There are also a raft of other Democrats mulling the race, including ex-Rep. Bob Ethridge.
• If the redistricting news at the federal level was a bit of a snoozer, it was exactly the opposite at the legislative level, where BIG news abounds this week. Two legal decisions quite clearly went the way of the Democrats, with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court tossing the GOP's gerrymandered state legislative maps, while the California Supreme Court ruled Friday that even if a GOP-backed referendum on the state senate map makes it onto the ballot, this Fall's elections will still be conducted under those new maps. In less pleasing news for the boys and girls in blue, the GOP gerrymander of the state senate in New York is now out, and it's pretty clear that the Republicans in the Empire State weren't playing around. It is cartographic abstract art, to be sure. In all, it could net Republicans an additional handful of seats in the closely contested state senate.

THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD

The most amazing thing about this week's "air ball" award? Newt Gingrich, who had a pretty lousy week, does not actually make the Final Four. But his three presidential wanna-be compatriots did, as well as a New England mayor who already put himself in the running for 2012's dumbest comment of the year. And it's only January.

Mayor Joseph Maturo Jr. (R-CT): Sure, sure ... I'll be the first to admit that a mayor is kind of small ball for the "air ball" trophy. And I couldn't even tell you when and if this dude is up for re-election. But when someone makes a comment as eye-poppingly asshole-esque as this one? Gotta be worth at least the nomination. At least we know that our man is going to be well fed for a while!

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): C'mon. The second the newsletter story broke, you knew that it would eventually come to this, didn't you? This week came the long-expected, and largely unsurprising, revelation that not only was the iconoclastic GOP presidential candidate aware of the horrific racial elements of his newsletters, he signed off on them. The tragedy in all this is that he is still largely being given a pass on this, and is still treated with far more deference than would seem to be merited, given this very black mark in his past.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): Mitt actually had a pretty decent week, in all. It is nearly universally agreed that he dropkicked Newt Gingrich in both debates this week, and might've neutered him for Florida. However, Mitt still makes the cut. How could he not, when the modern-day political equivalent of Thurston Howell III made this quip?

I know what it takes to make America the most attractive place for jobs again. I want to do that not because I’m worried about the 1 percent. The 1 percent is doing fine. I want to help the 99 percent.

I think the cool kids on Twitter would respond to that with the acronym "SMH."

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA): His relevance to the Republican presidential nomination appears to be waning with each passing week. But Santorum picked a curious hook upon which to try to resurrect his campaign: conspiracy theories about wanting people to be college educated. Putting kids into college? An obvious attempt to brainwash those impressionable young minds. For reals ... he actually said that.