National standings from Gallup.com, 1/29/12
1. What we wrote at the beginning of the month (Four reasons why Mitt Romney will be the nominee) is still true. Those four reasons were Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Rick Perry, although without Perry I suppose we are now down to three reasons. But reason number #1 that Romney will win is Newt Gingrich, who remains a pompous windbag that no one likes, particularly anyone who has ever worked with him.
2. The people who said Romney's advantage in money and organization was ginormous turn out to be correct. It took a state as big as Florida and as expensive to advertise in to see it. Newt's getting outspent 4:1 and his numbers are dropping faster than the Florida polls can keep up. Nate Silver has him at 5% chance, Romney 95% [and now as of this a.m., 97%] (see the polls here.)
3. Romney is in it until the end. Gingrich and Santorum say they are. Then again, so did Huntsman and Perry. Now, Gingrich is still leading in the lagging national polls, but anyone think that won't change after Tuesday's whomping? And after Florida, does anyone think Gingrich has the discipline and organization to compete in multiple locations? He can stay in the race as long as he wants, but it won't do him much good.
South Florida Sun Sentinal 1/30/2012
And if he's counting on a tea party uprising to save him, see point #4.
4. Now that Herman Cain and Sarah Palin are lining up behind Newt, the lack of clout of the tea party is evident for everyone to see. Their candidate is going to lose, and the candidate they most dislike is going to win. But open civil war is healthy for the country, even if it's bad for the Republicans. Sooner or later, they were going to have to deal with the "birther/Obama is illegitimate" nonsense in their party; it might as well be now.
Hey, there's always Donald Trump to turn to:
Real estate mogul Donald Trump, who dropped out of the GOP presidential race months before the first primary, now said he may reluctantly be forced to run as a third party candidate...
5. Even though Romney will win on Tuesday, all of the bloviating to come about "how strong Romney was in Florida" misses how weak he is otherwise. There's a reason someone as flawed as Gingrich is, as of this writing, still leads nationally. It's because Romney is so weak that his party still longs for someone else, and still will up until election day. Again, that doesn't guarantee an Obama win (it's the economy, stupid), but the hurt on Republicans that the primary battle is inflicting will still be around come November. It's wishful thinking on the part of Republicans to pretend this is Obama-Hillary. I agree with those who think it's more like Kennedy-Carter, with no love lost. And Newt's not shy about saying so, and owes nothing to Romney.