I decided just to make a diary so we can discuss everything all in one place. Hopefully no one minds.
1) We know the date when the non-presidential primary for federal offices (House and Senate) must take place. June 26.
http://blog.timesunion.com/...
Before this ruling there was a "window" with some New York politicians arguing for a June date, some arguing for an August date, and some arguing for something in between. Given as shown in the interview below the legislature was talking about voting on state redistricting in March and that LATFOR has not even begun drawing up plans for Congressional redistricting August was probably the date they were aiming for.
http://www.capitaltonight.com/...
Cuomo and everyone else (at least publicly) wants to move the other non-presidential primary contests to the same date to avoid the expense of having two elections. Three if you include the presidential primary. We'll see if that is even possible. Colin Campbell of the New York Observer brings up the good point that you also have a federal law saying ballots must be sent to military service men overseas 45 days in advance.
http://www.politickerny.com/...
New York state law says certification of the ballot has to take place no later than 36 days before the primary. Given the state needs a little bit of time to at least print the ballots we'll set this date five days before the federal deadline. That is 50 days before election date and a nice round two weeks earlier than in past elections.
Thus certification will be in or around May 7th.
The election law talks about how long the nominating period must be but either I'm dense or it does not set a date. So I'll use the time table from 2010. The deadline for filing petitions then was 40 days before certification.
So the last day for filing designated petitions will be in or around March 28.
The first day to start filing petitions was 37 days before that.
So the first day to start gathering petitions would be February 27th.
"EDIT* The law actually only applies to general elections. Still that only buys you two more weeks and gets you to March 12th.
Today is January 29th. You also need time to hold conventions to endorse candidates, choose judicial nominees (if the primary date for state offices is made the same as federal), and just plain old provide adequate public notice.
I don't think it is a very bold prediction that if a redistricting plan for the US House is not passed in just a few weeks a judge will take control of the process. Note. This will have no impact on other offices such as the State Senate and the State Assembly unless the legislature decides to move the primary date for those back as well.
Of course with anything that is judicial your milleage may vary depending on the judge hearing the case. For all we know they could change the primary date.
2) What Gov. Andrew Cuomo will and won't do is completely up in the air. If you watch the video above State Senator Michael Gianaris is convinced Andrew Cuomo will hold true to his veto threat. Others have suggested otherwise.
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...
But do understand that Cuomo's priorities are legislative programs he wants to pass and a possible 2016 run for President. How much he is willing to get down in the muck with us in this fight is up in the air. I am not all that hopeful. But he is keeping his cards pretty close to his vest.
As I explained above the deadline for the US House map getting done (which LATFOR so far has not given a damn about) comes before that of the Senate and State Assembly. Which means fantasies of using the State Senate as leverage to get a better US House map are probably off the table. And it is possible we'll see a scenario of a court drawn US House map and a legislature drawn State Senate gerrymander.
3) We've seen US House members being very parochial and self-centered in other states to the detriment of their party. Don't think New York State will be an exception. I heard a rumor that Jerry Nadler was fighting to keep Democratic Coney Island in his district (and away from Grimm). May or may not be true in this exact instance. Rumors are after all just rumors. But this is the type of dealing that goes on during redistricting. Tooth and nail fight over territory. As Barney Frank showed no one likes their district being screwed around with. No matter what the greater good may or may not be.
The only public indications of what any of the districts might look like was in this article published yesterday about Charlie Rangel.
http://www.politickerny.com/...
If this comes to pass it shows that all of us drawing maps are rank amateurs when it comes to gerrymanders. Instead of going down in Manhattan and taking a few more white voters as some have suggested or into the Bronx and creating a Hispanic VRA district Assemblyman Charles Farrel describes a district that loses a lot of Manhattan save for Harlem, goes across the bridge to the Bronx to take some strong black areas and then makes a literal bealine to Co Op City in northeasern Bronx to pick up more black voters and finally across into Westchester to pick up even more in Mt Vernon. Playing around in DRA I was able to draw a 51% black district with those parameters. Albeit not a very pretty one. They were content with only 41%. Wonder if they used DRA too?
After many discussions, Mr. Farrell said Mr. Rangel’s allies in the Assembly “finally got him to accept” his district would have to change.
“We talked and we talked, and finally, around November he called me and he said, ‘Well, Denny, I guess we’re going to end up having to go into The Bronx. … I said, ‘Come on Charlie, you can keep your office here,” Mr. Farrell said.
Eventually they settled on a plan to create a district with favorable demographics that allows Mr. Rangel to retain control of some territory near his Harlem Home by making a swath from Manhattan, through The Bronx and up into Westchester County.
“He will cut around, he will go up at 155th Street, he will cut up and go up into The Bronx, he will go to Co-Op city and he’ll go up into Westchester,” Mr. Farrell said. “By doing that, we have brought–the district will end up being approximately 41% African-American and that was the number we had to raise. It’ll be a mix of Latino, and then Asian and white, so it’ll be mixed, but it will be a district that can be won.”
Sources tell The Politicker, Mr. Rangel’s new district could leave Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney with a much larger Latino population in her district and a potential challenge from Mr. Espaillat.