Daily Kos

Brian Merchant writes:

Business continues to boom in the global clean energy sector: Reuters reports that deals in the solar, wind, and energy efficiency industries netted a record $53.5 billion last year. That's a rather significant 40% from 2010, according to the analysis from PriceWaterHouse Coopers.

And what's more, total investment in renewable energy broke the record, too: $260 billion was directed to the burgeoning business of clean power. Even more encouraging was the fact that hydro power, which is typically the primary driver in renewable energy portfolio growth, took a deep back seat to wind, solar, and energy efficiency. [...]

And here in the United States, one of our two major political parties was united in its opposition to clean energy policy, and calling for an end to tax breaks and federal support for renewables. The GOP tried to paint cleantech as a failed liberal fairytale, and attempted to manufacture a scandal-tinged referendum out of Solyndra's bankruptcy. Even though they failed to do so—the public is still overwhelmingly gung-ho about cleantech—it didn't exactly make an encouraging backdrop for companies to cut deals in the clean energy sector.

The federal production tax credit gives wind, solar and some kinds of geothermal projects a 2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour subsidy for the first 10 years of operation. That has boosted construction of renewable operations significantly. But the PTC expires at the end of this year, a continuation of the on-again, off-again approach Congress has taken to the subsidy. The problem with this sporadic approach for investors is uncertainty. A wind project typically takes 12 to 18 months from the time the permits are signed until the turbines are spinning. With possible PTC expiration just 11 months away, some investors  presumably already are shying away from putting their money into new renewables projects. They must be thinking, what if the Republicans gain overall government control?

American Wind Energy Association CEO Denise Bode told reporters and bloggers in a call on Friday that further delays in renewing the PTC could hurt the industry. “Our greatest fear is that this is delayed until later on in the year,” she said. “If that happens, we are very likely to lose tens of thousands of jobs.”

A smart move by Congress—I know, I know—would be to extend the PTC for five years or even a decade instead of in two- or three-year increments, as in the past.

In addition to the unknown fate of the PTC, there are other problems ahead that could make 2012 tougher sailing for companies that are deep into clean energy. As Stephen Lacey points outs, there is right now an overcapacity in solar models There is tremendous flood into the market of cheap modules, which is in great part driven by the Chinese, who are said to be selling theirs for less than they cost to make. This has brought down the price of equipment, but it's made investing in solar companies "very tricky."

For instance, Lacey writers, in 2011, the French oil giant Total bought a 66 percent stake in the high-efficiency solar producer SunPower for $1.3 billion.

While SunPower has a strong project development pipeline and the highest efficiency technology on the market, it has been hit hard by the flood of cheap modules like virtually every manufacturer. Total, the 14th largest oil and gas company in the world, says it will “turn around” SunPower. But a chronic oversupply of modules and a constantly changing policy environment make the situation very tenuous—even with SunPower’s strong technology and brand advantage.

It seems like 10 minutes ago that naysayers were claiming solar and wind would never generate more than a tiny fraction of the electricity needed to replace fossil fuels. But Germany is now generating 20.8 percent of its electricity from renewables, only 3 percent of that from hydro facilities. A dozen years ago, the total figure was 6 percent. For 2020, just eight years away, the German government has set a goal of 35 percent, with all its nuclear power plants phased out two years later. By contrast, the United States only generates 4 percent of its electricity from renewables if you take hydro out of the equation.

The reason for this difference? Government policy. While Germany has altered its energy policy over time, it has been relatively consistent. And the key has been the feed-in tariff. People or companies that generate electricity from renewable sources, say rooftop photovoltaic panels, are paid somewhat above the market rate for that power. Utility companies are required to give electricity generated by renewables preference. The result? Rapid growth of renewable installations with the costs spread across all consumers of electricity so that bills are only a few euros higher each month than they would have been.

It's not that Germany hasn't encountered difficulties. It certainly has, and those could cause it to miss the 2020 deadline. But its long-term goal doesn't stop then. It continues through 2050, when policy has set a goal of 100 percent of power being generated from renewables. If it meets that goal, Germany will also have cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 85 percent.

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Blast from the Past. At Daily Kos on this date in 2007:

.That didn't take long. Just a few days ago, he said his escalation was Iraq's last chance.

“If this strategy doesn’t succeed, we will have to devise another strategy,” McCain said. “But I have to hasten to add there are no good options.” One of those options, McCain said “is to withdraw to the borders (of Iraq) to try to keep other countries from interfering. Maintaining our bases in Kuwait and other places. There are a lot of scenarios.”

But now, he says we're never leaving Iraq. [...]

I dream of a McCain/Lieberman War Party ticket. Because at this rate, McCain is not just general election poison (with his numbers diving every time he ties himself even tighter to George Bush's leg), but is looking dicier even in his own party's primary.

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