For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in Michigan. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
My neighbor to the north (I live less than a mile from the border), recently fell to the Republicans in the 2010 elections. And they have governed much differently than they promised. Here is a map that I think is fair, and represents the heavy Democratic lean of the state. I can't promise I followed the communities of interest especially well, not being a Michigander.
Link to the adopted plan.
Previous Doubling Diaries: FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Michigan gets 28 districts.
The "Dem average" consists of these races:
- Governor 2006 (Incumbent Democrat won 56-42)
- Attorney General 2006 (Incumbent Republican won 54-44)
- Secretary of State 2006 (Incumbent Republican won 56-42)
Greater Detroit
1
VAP: 34 White, 49.2 Black, 13 Hispanic
85.5 Obama, 77.6 Dem
Plurality black; Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) lives here. Downtown Detroit. Clarke is only vulnerable in a primary. Safe D, black hold
2
VAP: 44 W, 50.1 B
74.4 Obama, 63.5 Dem
Majority black; open. Detroit, Hamtramck and the Grosse Pointes in Wayne County, and Eastpointe and St. Clair Shores in Macomb County. Slam dunk for Dems, new Black Rep. Safe D, black pickup
3
VAP: 44.9 W, 50 B
77.1 Obama, 69.9 Dem
Majority black; John Conyers (D-Detroit) lives here. Detroit and Highland Park in Wayne County, Center Line, Warren and Roseville in Macomb. Conyers drops from 61% black to 50%, so he may not be happy. But he might be placated by having two new African-American colleagues. Safe D, black hold
4
VAP: 44.8 W, 50.2 B
79.6 Obama, 69.6 Dem
Majority black; John Dingell, Jr. (D-Dearborn) lives here. Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Redford and Detroit. The Dean of the House, John Dingell has served Michigan since December 1955 (!!). He would likely be immune to any primary from a black pol, but he may run in either the district containing Ann Arbor or Ypsilanti anyway. Safe D, black pickup if open
5
VAP: 54.3 W, 33.5 B, 6.6 Asian
70.3 Obama, 59.1 Dem
Open. Black influence. Detroit subrbs in Oakland County, specifically Pontiac. Gary Peters (D) lives literally a stone's throw from this district in the 21st, but he would run here. He'd be vulnerable to a primary, since this district is approximately 1000% more Democratic than his current district, but other than that it's Safe D
6
VAP: 84.5 W, 7.2 B
59.5 Obama, 49.6 Dem
Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) and Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township) both live here. Candice Miller would definitely not run here, she would run in either the 23rd or the 24th to the north, where more of her territory ended up. Safe D
7
VAP: 84.8 W, 6.9 A
63.7 Obama, 53.1 Dem
Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) lives here, but would relocate south to the 11th. Ann Arbor and Jackson to the west. Because of the-college-that-as-a-Notre-Dame-fan-I-am-not-allowed-to-name, this is Safe D
8
VAP: 73.2 W, 15.4 B, 6.1 A
62 Obama, 50.8 Dem
Open. Ypsilanti and western Wayne County. Safe D
9
VAP: 84.5 W, 6.9 B, 5 A
53.3 Obama, 42.7 Dem
Thaddeus McCotter (R-Livonia) lives here. A touch less blue than McCotter's current district, but still swingy. Democrats should contest this every cycle until the erstwhile presidential candidate is no more. Swing
10
VAP: 89.5 W
56.5 Obama, 50.2 Dem
Open. Southern Detroit suburbs, including Monroe. 15-point Obama win and better-than-normal Dem performance than in similar districts suggests this is Likely D
21
VAP: 87.2 W
46.5 Obama, 35 Dem
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) live here, but as I said above he'd certainly run in the 5th rather than here. Oakland County. Safe R
23
VAP: 89.8 W
48.8 Obama, 41.4 Dem
Open; as before, Candice Miller would likely run here or the 24th instead of the district containing her home. Obama's performance suggests this Macomb County district could be moving in our direction, but for now it's Likely R
The "Palm"
11
VAP: 88.8 W, 5.2 B
50.6 Obama, 43.1 Dem
Open; as I mentioned, Tim Walberg, whose home was drawn into the 7th, would run here. This district gets about 1% more red than Walberg's current MI-07, but he's still too conservative for this district. Former Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) also lives here, and could seek a rematch, but it would be an uphill battle, since he barely beat Walberg in 2008 as it was. Tossup if Walberg v. Schauer, Lean R w/o Schauer
12
VAP: 76.8 W, 10.2 B, 5.7 H
64.2 Obama, 52.6 Dem
Open. Lansing, East Lansing and surrounding areas. Another one of them college towns. Safe D
13
VAP: 71.5 W, 22.8 B
68.4 Obama, 61 Dem
Open; incumbent Dale Kildee (D) is retiring. Flint. Rep. Kildee's nephew, Dan, in running to replace him, and will have no trouble. Safe D
14
VAP: 82.5 W, 10.3 B
57.2 Obama, 50.4 Dem
Open; Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. Rep. Dave Lee Camp lives in Midland, but the city is split, and his home is drawn outside the 14th. Likely D
15
VAP: 85.4 W, 7.7 B
56.2 Obama, 46.9 Dem
Open. Kalamazoo and Portage. Lean D
16
VAP: 85.1 W, 7.5 B
50.1 Obama, 41.5 Dem
Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, lives here. By dropping Kalamazoo, this district becomes much safer for Upton. Or does it? The Club for Growth is already running ads against Upton in his current district; becoming redder may actually make Upton more vulnerable to a primary from the right. Safe R with Upton, Likely R with Republican Jesus
17
VAP: 72.3 W, 12.6 B, 10.7 H
58.2 Obama, 44.7 Dem
Open. Greater Grand Rapids. Michigan Democrats must have run really weak candidates for AG and SoS in 2006 for the Dem average to be this low compared to Obama's performance. Lean D
18
VAP: 82.7 W, 7.3 B, 6.6 H
53.5 Obama, 41.5 Dem
Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) lives here. Muskegon and Holland.This district jumps almost 6 points in Obama performance making it a good target for Dems with the right candidate. Swing
19
VAP: 94.5 W
44.2 Obama, 35.4 Dem
Mike Rogers (R-Howell), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, lives here. Central rural Michigan. By shedding Lansing, this district becomes a lot more Republican. Rogers doesn't have a moderate reputation, but he may want to watch his back. Safe R
20
VAP: 92.3 W
35.7 Obama, 26.6 Dem
Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township) lives here. The blood-red suburbs of Grand Rapids, this is the worst district in the state for the President by far. Amash, who already annoys the Republican establishment with his constant "present" votes, may not survive this district. Safe R
22
VAP: 94.2 W
47.5 Obama, 40.2 Dem
Open. Central rurals again, north of Lansing. Could be trending our way, but Likely R
24
VAP: 94.3 W
47.5 Obama, 39.1 Dem
Open; as before, Candice Miller may choose to run here. The bulk of "the thumb". Again, it appears that Michigan as a whole is trending blue, so this may be in reach within the decade. Safe R
28
VAP: 92.2 W
49.3 Obama (Obama win by 400 votes), 40.5 Dem
Dave Camp (R-Midland) lives here. Base of the Fingers, the largest city is Mount Pleasant. Safe R with Camp, Likely R when open
The "Fingers", Upper Peninsula
25
VAP: 96.4 W
48.8 Obama, 43 Dem
Open. The tip of the thumb, crosses Saginaw Bay and stretches to the middle finger. Largest cities are Petoskey and Cheboygan; includes the city of Gaylord (teehee). Likely R
26
VAP: 91 W
51.9 Obama, 49.9 Dem
Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls) lives here. The Upper Peninsula and part of Traverse City. 2 points better for Obama than the current MI-01 and very Democratic at the local level, Benishek is likely doomed in any year that doesn't begin and end with "2010" Lean D
27
VAP: 94.6 W
48.1 Obama, 39.7 Dem
Open. Part of Traverse City, the rest is pretty much the sticks. Largest whole city appears to be Cadillac. Likely R
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So, going from a current 6-9 delegation to a 5-9 map passed by the Republican legislature, to a 15-10-3 map under Doubling (assuming Mark Schauer runs, which for the purposes of this series we will)! This includes 3 guaranteed African-American representatives, 4 if John Dingell moves out of his home district. I approve (I better, because I drew the thing). This brings the House to 137-118-31
So as always, please let me know what you think!