Mark Zandi is a highly respected, nonpolitical, economic forecaster who is the chief economist at Moody's Analytics. He was McCain's economic adviser in the 2008 campaign, but is in my mind fair-minded and objective. He's not just another AEI or Wall St. hack.
Last night on the PBS Nightly Business Report, he made a prediction that will make Obama's re-election all the easier if it comes true. Mitt Romney probably wishes he'd never heard it. While the absolute value of unemployment will still be high throughout the year, the rate of improvement will be unmistakeable by election day.
From Nightly Business Report, 2/2/2012
MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY’S ANALYTICS: Here is an intrepid
forecast. The unemployment rate will be below 8 percent by year’s end.
While still disappointing — anything over 5.5 percent means there are
those who want work but can’t find it — unemployment is definitively
moving in the right direction. Just over two years ago, it was in the
double digits. In my travels as an economic consultant, talking to clients
in all walks of life, businesses are almost uniformly more upbeat. Layoffs
are as low as during the best of economic times, and hiring, which has been
extraordinarily weak, is picking up. ..........