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It's once again time for our quarterly fundraising chart of key House races throughout the nation:

As always, all numbers are in thousands. "Raised" is the amount the candidate has received in donations from outside donors during the fourth quarter, not including any loans. "CoH" stands for total cash-on-hand at the end of the quarter (Dec. 31). "CTD" indicates a candidate's contributions raised cycle-to-date. Some candidates who have created campaign committees have nevertheless not filed quarterly reports. Those lines are left blank. (In the case of OR-01, the candidates were not required to do so because they filed reports for the special election.)

With regard to redistricting, many campaigns filed their reports using old district numbers which do not reflect the actual new districts in which they plan to seek re-election. We've made every effort to clean up these numbers, but in some cases, we've had to rely on our best guesses. In states which have not completed congressional redistricting (such as Florida and Texas), we have left these numbers untouched.

Please let us know in comments if we are missing anyone notable. For a link to our complete spreadsheet (which you can download in full), click here. For our 3Q roundup, click here. For our 2Q roundup, click here.

Below is a list of challengers who have outperformed incumbents:

Republicans challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: Richard Tisei (vs. John Tierney in MA-06); Richard Hudson & Vernon Robinson (vs. Larry Kissell in NC-08); Randy Altschuler (vs. Tim Bishop in NY-01); Matt Doheny (vs. Bill Owens in NY-23)

Republican challengers with more cash-on-hand than Democratic incumbents: Ricky Gill (vs. Jerry McNerney in CA-09)

Republicans challengers who outraised Republican incumbents: Paul Babeu (vs. Paul Gosar in AZ-04)

Republican challengers with more cash-on-hand than Republican incumbents: None

Democratic challengers who outraised Republican incumbents: Clark Hall (vs. Rick Crawford in AR-01); Ami Bera (vs. Dan Lungren in CA-07); Sukhee Kang (vs. John Campbell in CA-45); Scott Peters (vs. Brian Bilbray in CA-52); Sal Pace (vs. Scott Tipton in CO-03); Val Demings (vs. Daniel Webster in FL-08); Luis Garcia (vs. David Rivera in FL-25); Christie Vilsack (vs. Steve King in IA-04); Tammy Duckworth & Raja Krishnamoorthi (vs. Joe Walsh in IL-08); Bill Foster (vs. Judy Biggert in IL-11); John Delaney & Rob Garagiola (vs. Roscoe Bartlett in MD-06); Syed Taj (vs. Thad McCotter in MI-11); Annie Kuster (vs. Charlie Bass in NH-02); Dan Maffei (vs. Ann Marie Buerkle in NY-25); Armando Villalobos (vs. Blake Farenthold in TX-27); Paul Hirschbiel (vs. Scott Rigell in VA-02); John Douglass (vs. Frank Wolf in VA-10); Jamie Wall (vs. Reid Ribble in WI-08)

Democratic challengers with more cash on hand than Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (vs. Dan Lungren in CA-07); Christie Vilsack (vs. Steve King in IA-04); Tammy Duckworth & Raja Krishnamoorthi (vs. Joe Walsh in IL-08); Gary McDowell (vs. Dan Benishek in MI-01); Annie Kuster (vs. Charlie Bass in NH-02); Dan Maffei (vs. Ann Marie Buerkle in NY-25)

Democratic challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: Ellen Corbett & Ro Khanna (vs. Pete Stark in CA-15); Clyde Williams (vs. Charlie Rangel in NY-15); Beto O'Rourke (vs. Silvestre Reyes in TX-16); Taj Clayton (vs. Eddie Bernice Johnson in TX-30)

Democratic challengers with more cash on hand than Democratic incumbents: Ro Khanna (vs. Pete Stark in CA-15); Hakeem Jeffries (vs. Ed Towns in NY-10)

P.S. Special thanks to trowaman and Katherine Haenschen of Burnt Orange Report for helping us with Texas.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 04:28 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  West Virginia #s??? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CentralWIGuy, Setsuna Mudo, David Nir
  •  AZ (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, Leftcandid, David Nir

    Grijalva's district got renumbered AZ3. AZ7 is Pastor's now.

    SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 04:46:47 PM PST

  •  NM-01- All 3 leading Dems raised near-identical $ (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, Christopher Walker

    Chavez- $149K
    Griego- $142K
    Lujan Grisham- $141

    And they all appear to have similar numbers of CoH.

  •  This is a good start (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    There are 18 Republican incumbents who have been outraised by Democratic challengers.  Those challengers are in good shape to win (not guaranteed of course).  But 18 seats isn't enough to win a majority.  The more Dems who outraise Republican incumbents, the better off we are.  

    Check out my new blog: http://socalliberal.wordpress.com/

    by SoCalLiberal on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 05:16:43 PM PST

  •  I'm very hopeful about McDowell in MI-01 (7+ / 0-)

    his fundraising here looks competitive and his burn rate is much lower.  And that poll had him leading.  I think this seat will be at the tipping point for retaking much of the Midwest that we lost last year.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 05:18:00 PM PST

  •  Joe the Plumber (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Setsuna Mudo, Xenocrypt, rja

    $17K left. I read he was paying himself $5K a month. 3 months left before he has to file for unemployment to fund his campaign.

    •  He has no shot (0+ / 0-)

      The Republicans gerrymandered the state so badly, no Republican has any hope of winning this district. That's why a credible candidate withdrew. They're just letting Joey play candidate dress-up Whoever wins the Democrat primary March 6 will win in November.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:11:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What of Sutton? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, SLDemocrat

        That PPP poll showed her tied with Renacci.  Is that accurate in your view?

        Sh*t politicians say: “The polls that I’ve seen show that if this goes to the ballot, I lose. How much more magnanimous could I be? What else do you want me to do? Go campaign for it too? Look, I’m doing the best I can here!” -Gov. Chris Christie

        by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:13:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, I think that is accurate (4+ / 0-)

          What I think the Republicans who cut this district deep into Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) didn't take into account in their lust to shatter Cuyahoga into pieces and attempt to destroy its Democratic Party (since we provide the biggest bloc of Democratic votes in the state) is that they handed Betty a piece of a powerful machine in the southwest party of the county — very blue-collar union, very auto-imdustry dependent (Betty wrote Cash for Clunkers and saved a whole shitload of jobs here). These people are already out organizing for her. And although she previously represented only a tiny piece of Cuyahoga, she has always been proactive about interacting with people here, so she's not unknown in her new territory. She's also a dynamic campaigner and a very likable person, as Renacci is not. She's got a lot of things in her favor, and yes, I believe she could win this one.

          If she does, that might mean that four of Ohio's five Democratic congresspeople (we could win a sixth district but it's  long shot – this is really the only district out of 16 that could swing at all, never mind that it's overwhelmingly likely a majority of ohio voters will vote for a Democrat for Congress in November) are women. (Marcy Kaptur is strongly favored to beat Kucinich — and good riddance — in 0h-09 in March).

          Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

          by anastasia p on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:46:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Great work! (7+ / 0-)

    Let's all remember, though, that fundraising success (either quarter-by-quarter or overall) and electoral success are very different things.  Here's a list from back in the SSP days of 1Q 2008:

    http://www.swingstateproject.com/...

    Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL), Joshua Segall (AL-03), Bob Lord (AZ-03), Ed Chau (CA-42), Debbie Cook (CA-46), Annette Taddeo (FL-18), Raul Martinez (FL-21), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Joe Garcia (FL-25), Walt Minnick (ID-01), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Kay Barnes (MO-06), Jim Hunt (MT-AL), Eric Massa (NY-29), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Jane Mitakides (OH-03), Linda Ketner (SC-01) [note: her filing covers the period from 8/1-3/31, but the bulk of her fundraising was done this year], Rob Miller (SC-02), Michael Skelly (TX-07), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10), Darcy Burner (WA-08).

    I've done this before, but how many of them won--even in the very good D year of 2008?  Let's see...Kosmas, Minnick, Schauer, Driehaus, Perriello, Massa.  So 6/23.

    Beating an incumbent is hard, and out-raising an incumbent is hard--but let's not confuse the two.

    Still, lists like this at least help with which campaigns have current support, and which campaigns might turn out to be unexpectedly serious.  But let's not assume that a good fundraiser is on their way to Congress (although I may have in the past).

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 05:52:10 PM PST

    •  trip down memory lane (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, HoosierD42, MichaelNY

      The fizzle, if it wasn't an implosion, of the Kay Barnes candidacy was an unwelcome surprise, that cycle.  

      I had a soft spot for the candidacy of Linda Ketner.  Wonder if she will re-surface.

      Same for Walt Minnick. Periello, of course, a favorite in these parts.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 05:24:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Admittedly that is 6 of the 14 Democrats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      who beat an incumbent in 2008.  The others?  Dina Titus, Jim Himes, Alan Grayson, Larry Kissell, Betsy Markey, Gary Peters, Glenn Nye, and Kathy Dahlkemper.  Many of these candidates did out-raise or out-spend their opponents if outside spending is taken into account, but as I note below, this wasn't the case in 2010 or 2004 and it might have something to do with the fact that all of these Republican incumbents managed to win in 2006.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:08:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-52: Not too surprising that Peters (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, redrelic17

    is a good fundraiser--he was a citywide candidate (for City Attorney), President of the San Diego City Council, and represented the San Diego City Council district that included La Jolla.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 06:11:30 PM PST

  •  153k for Raul Ruiz (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, David Nir

    not bad for a longshot, but he has got to close that COH gap.

  •  Holy crap David McKinley has a lot of CoH (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, SaoMagnifico

    When is the filing deadline in WV? I'm assuming we're going to get stuck with Sue Thorn and have no shot.

  •  TX-33 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    trowaman, Setsuna Mudo

    You mean Kathleen Hicks, right? not Erin?

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 07:30:28 PM PST

  •  Some nice numbers here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Setsuna Mudo

    Mark Takano's haul isn't that great I think, but he still outraised Tavaglione. Good.

    it's nice to see Steven Horsford outraising Barbara Cegavske, as well as Ami Bera outraising Dan Lungren and Annie Kuster outraising Charlie Bass. To the latter two: finish the job!

    Re: CA-02, I'm thinking we see a Huffman vs. Lawson general...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 07:34:12 PM PST

  •  Wow, Wenona Baldenegro's fundraising (4+ / 0-)

    Is really pathetic. Can we stop pretending to support her?

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 10:10:24 PM PST

    •  I never understood all the hype for her to start (6+ / 0-)

      with. Dems already had a top tier candidate here with a proven electibility argument. In addition, any democrat who can only raise 26k a quarter will not win a McCain district period.

    •  She's the progressive; Kirkpatrick is not. (0+ / 0-)

      Suppoert her until she loses the primary, but if you really want better Dems, ya gotta stand up for 'em when they are inevitably losing the money race to the previous incumbent.

      In '12 she can certainly win the district on a ticket with Obama.

           

      Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

      by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:38:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kirkpatrick is a progressive. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, Darth Jeff, askew, MichaelNY

        She was the Democrat in the reddest district to vote against the Stupak-Pitts amendment.

        •  Not enough. (0+ / 0-)

          If that's the one issue you need, I get it, but many conservadems are pro-choice, & that can't be a reason we don't primary them to get pro-choice progressives.  Kirkpatrick was a Blue Dog & AZ 1 can do better.  Will they?  Who knows, but the attempt must be made.

          Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

          by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 10:26:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Kirkpatrick (7+ / 0-)

            wasn't actually a member of the Blue Dog Caucus. And she was generally good on social issues such as hate crimes legislation, Lilly Ledbetter, and DADT repeal (plus she was endorsed by EMILY's List).

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 10:38:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thanks; I had a bad source. (0+ / 0-)

              Still, socially liberal, fiscally conservative Dems are libertarians, and not good enough.  She voted with Wall St. & Fossil Fuel Inc. too often.

              Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

              by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 11:52:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  AZ1 (7+ / 0-)

            The district is R+1. You don't find a lot of liberal Dems holding down R+0 to R+2 districts. I think anyone to the left of Tim Walz or Tim Bishop would be a nonstarter in a district like that. Even the current Dems in D+1s are not a very liberal crew: Sanford Bishop, Barrow, Boswell, and Schrader.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 11:11:54 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You don't find it when it isn't tried. (0+ / 0-)

              Which is what we should be doing.

              Liberal economic populists, with strong grassroots support based on a record of community involvement and service, can get Republican votes.  Look at Grayson winning an R+2 district.  

              We can't let "holding the district" be an excuse for supporting the lesser candidate in a primary.  In AZ 1 Romney will pull the Mormons and Baldenegro will pull the AmerIndians.  There's no reason NOT to support the more progressive Wenona now, & then supporting whoever wins the primary.  The fact that there is no progressive candidate clusterfuck as in 08 makes the dynamic different.  It's one on one.  

               

              Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

              by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 11:51:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Grayson won in a D wave year (5+ / 0-)

                then in an R wave year got absolutely spanked, worse than most D incumbents who lost.

                Baldenegro is too much of a gamble, and I like to play it safe.

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 12:22:23 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Safe? Then why did Ann lose? (0+ / 0-)

                  Grayson painted a big target on himself in a year where Democrats staying home doomed him.  But Kirkpatrick lost too for the same reason, and has far less to show for it than Grayson.  

                  There's no evidence at the moment that 2014 will be like 2010.  Let's not preconcede anything.

                  Also, what's a swingnut?

                  Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                  by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 04:46:07 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It was always my opinion that Grayson was running (5+ / 0-)

                    against a weak incumbent in 2008, there was the year, and to be honest I dont remember Grayson being this loud and outspoken in 2008. In terms of Kirkpatrick in 2008 she got 56% while McCain was getting 54%, a significant number of people split the ticket for her. Then in the red tidal wave of 2010, she lost the 54% McCain district by a margin of only 6% while other democrats were losing 51% Obama district by double digits. She has proved her case and proved it quite well.

                    •  It's dangerous to compare districts to each other (0+ / 0-)

                      especially in a Presidential election year where the GOP candidate is from the state in which this district is.

                      What part of McCain's total was his homestate name rec?  What evidence do you have that Baldenegro would have gotten less than 56% in 08 had she been the candidate?  What do you know about AZ 1's Republicans compared to the real scumbags of 2 and 6?

                      If Kirkpatrick wins the primary, people should vote for her.  But there is insufficient reason to throw in with her now especially because her money will be there either way.  If we want better Dems, primaries are how we get them.  There's no reason to believe Baldenegro couldn't outperform Kirkpatrick in this district if she wins the primary and gets DCCC support as a result.  

                       

                      Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                      by Leftcandid on Sun Feb 05, 2012 at 12:35:34 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Umm... you started comparing the districts (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        by bringing up Grayson and now your telling me its dangerous to compare districts.....

                        •  No, the point was that progressives can win R+ (0+ / 0-)

                          districts, something initially denied by you & other commenters.  I used Grayson as an example.  The fact that he was running against a weak candidate is mirrored by the weakness of Kirkpatrick's opponent.  I compared candidates and results, but I didn't make any specific comparison of FL8 to AZ1; I know nothing about FL8's demos except they will be sad to lose Dwight Howard.  

                          The follow-up point is that in '10 Kirkpatrick and Grayson both lost, but Grayson achieved far more--making himself a target of more enemy money (enemoney?) in the process--than Kirkpatrick did.  

                          If we decide that only well-funded Dems can hold R+ districts, instead of populist Dems who have a record of in-district service as a real strength for reelectability, then we are failing in our mission.

                          Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                          by Leftcandid on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 01:39:07 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Well-funded (0+ / 0-)

                            I think your use of Alan Grayson does not help your argument, as he was and is very well-funded, so his election gives no evidence about the ability of someone who is not well-funded to win a district with a PVI that is against them.

                            Your argument may or may not have merit, but this piece of evidence does not bolster it.

                  •  Do you think Baldenegro would have won (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, SLDemocrat

                    in similar circumstances?

                    At any rate, it's not 2010 anymore and it's a bluer district, but that doesn't mean we get complacent.

                    See here for Swingnut.

                    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:55:01 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  i think you made everyone's point for us (5+ / 0-)

                Whether or not Baldonegro can win with Obama on the ticket in 2012, (This fundraising is nowhere close to what Grayson was able to put up so I think the comparison is weak) what happens in 2014 when he isn't at the top?

                •  Don't make the mistake of worrying about 2014. (0+ / 0-)

                  Here's a novel concept: see if we can elect a progressive.  If we can, we'll see how she does, and perhaps her record will generate transpartisan approval that will carry her in 2014.

                  Do not fall into the trap of Serious D.C. thinking.  They NEVER want Better Dems, just More.  They want those who are compliant, silent except in the face of overwhelming consensus, who'd never say anything controversial such as complimenting Occupy, who will kowtow to the wealthy donorbase that, y'know, basically forced progressive Paul Eckerstrom from the chairmanship of the AZ Democratic Party.

                  Don't think it's a virtue to play it safe based on district analysis.  It's shortsighted & ignorant to view one R+ district as equivalent to others.  AZ 1 is overwhelmingly rural with one college town, and Wenona's background puts her FAR more in touch with the average resident than Kirkpatrick.  I mean, do any of you commenting know anything REAL about the district other than it's R+1 & that Serious Thinking sez only a centrist Dem can win & hold it?  Gawd, the self-defeating pre-comprimise in these comments is unbecoming of Kossacks.  

                  TAKE A CHANCE on a principled progressive who absolutely can win & hold this seat for a long long time if given the opportunity.  Fuck the cynicism that sez it will always revert to GOP in non-presidential years if held by a progressive.  Most of all, fuck the notion that money will always defeat the good, which is basically what y'all are advocating.

                  (deep breath)

                  I'm sure you mean well & are basing these comments on your own experience.  Just think about this, do some research, & dare to dream of & work for a Wellstonian unlikely outcome, because if we want change, we have to go for it on occasion, & we must destroy the cancerous certainties that only certain candidates can compete in certain districts.  

                  Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                  by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 04:40:20 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Not as novel on this site as I'd like (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    R30A, Setsuna Mudo
                    Here's a novel concept: see if we can elect a progressive.  If we can, we'll see how she does, and perhaps her record will generate transpartisan approval that will carry her in 2014.

                    And what's your evidence that politicians with progressive records get any kind of approval from Republicans in Arizona, especially in recent years?

                    Wellstone won in Minnesota, which is much more Democratic and liberal than the Arizona district in question, so make that part of your analysis.

                    On this sub-site, we don't generally engage in counter-factual dreaming. So please show some actual evidence, instead of merely claiming that those questioning and logically disagreeing with you are falling into a trap.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 05, 2012 at 02:35:24 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Not all AZ Republicans are alike. (0+ / 0-)

                      First, Independents are the largest group in AZ.  That's part of the transpartisan coalition needed to win.

                      Second, the worst Republicans in the state are suburban PHX.  Some of these are in AZ1, but most are in 2 and 6.  

                      AZ 1 has a large rural white population and a large Native population.  The Native population, we can agree, will turn out & vote heavily for Baldenegro vs. Kirkpatrick.  White Democrats will not be less motivated by Baldenegro than Kirkpatrick.  Independents are the key, and someone whose record is more clearly one of advocacy for people over business can do far better with Independents if she has a motivated grassroots base that outworks the moneyed GOP garbage.  Whether or not that is factual is almost beside the point: we must try defeating money with people, at every opportunity.  We cannot rely on countering money only with money, and Kirkpatrick will not be the beneficiary of grassroots support like Baldenegro will, even with Obama on the ticket.  If you take your own evidence seriously, it shows Obama is not necessarily an asset (although we should agree that McCain got a homestate boost in his total), & Romney will draw the district's Mormons.  Having a Native candidate is IMO probably a better draw than a vanilla conservaDem for boosting Dem turnout.

                      My point here isn't to forecast what WILL happen; the point is that we shouldn't presuppose the dominance of money in a race like this because it will become habit.  There's no evidence that a progressive Dem (who is no Graysonesque firebrand) will do any worse than a conservaDem.  That's neither fact nor logic; it's the sort of conventional wisdom that's actually BS.   The only reason conservadems do better historically in these districts is that they attract more campaign money with less effort, so the hierarchy comes down on their side, squashes the less wealthy challenger... and that's not an acceptable way forward in the long run.  Believing that Cook PVI is the final word in all cases simply cuts off possibility.  Dreaming is not counter factual, but is required to forge a new reality that dispenses with old, not-actually-factual facts.

                      At this point, why not throw in with the better Democratic candidate, and see how it plays out?  Kirkpatrick needs no help yet.   I am no longer living in AZ & honestly have no idea where Wenona's campaign is--maybe she's insufficiently organized & her ground ops are nowhere near ready--but it just pisses me off to see what passes for useful analysis & strategy dismiss a progressive on grounds that seem flimsy underneath.

                      Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                      by Leftcandid on Sun Feb 05, 2012 at 12:26:33 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Independents aren't partisan (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Leftcandid

                        So my assumption was that they aren't trans-partisan, either. And I maintain that support from Republicans - though not necessary to win in that district - will not be forthcoming to any significant degree.

                        I would argue that Wellstone, who I loved, was very much the exception, and I'd point to a whole host of light-spenders, such as candidates who rejected DCCC funding, as counter-examples, plus Senator Feingold of Wisconsin. Wellstone, I'd also suggest, was a very skilled politician, and it takes skill and not just substance to win when you are so far behind in funding. I don't know how skilled Baldenegro is.

                        How do you figure Obama won't be an asset?

                        My point here isn't to forecast what WILL happen; the point is that we shouldn't presuppose the dominance of money in a race like this because it will become habit.  There's no evidence that a progressive Dem (who is no Graysonesque firebrand) will do any worse than a conservaDem.

                        You claim this is bullshit, but you haven't shown your work here. And yes, what we do here is forecast probabilities. That's the point of the Daily Kos Elections subsite.

                        I do appreciate your descriptions of the district, and I do think Baldenegro would have a chance to win, but I remain concerned about what would happen to her in 2014 if she does win in 2012. Democratic constituencies tend to turn out poorly in off-year elections, especially when a Democrat is in the White House. That's true historically, right, with the exception of 1998, in the aftermath of the Clinton impeachment?

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 05, 2012 at 01:38:32 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Won't Dems turn out more for someone locally (0+ / 0-)

                          involved, like Baldenegro, in off-years when they're not motivated by a President?  This has been her whole career, unlike Kirkpatrick.  Baldenegro is someone who has already committed to the people in her local communities, which she can probably translate into a commitment to many other communities in AZ 1.

                          If we are to break the trend of Dems not turning out in off-years, shouldn't we be trying to do that by selecting people of integrity, whom money won't be able to slander, rather than selecting people of money, who won't be perceived as having integrity?

                           

                          Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                          by Leftcandid on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 01:25:59 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)
                            Won't Dems turn out more for someone locally involved, like Baldenegro, in off-years when they're not motivated by a President?

                            And I think neither do you, probably. But depending on Democratic votes only won't do it in that district.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 04:39:02 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I mentioned the predominant Independents earlier (0+ / 0-)

                            and while I can't prove it, to me it makes sense that people who are independent because they don't trust a party--distinct from those who are independent because they can't be bothered to pay attention--are looking for candidates of integrity who care about the concerns of local communities, and that if they believe they have such a candidate, will show up again & again to ensure they don't lose that person as their representative.

                            Now two elections are exactly alike, but regardless of how the presidential wind is/isn't blowing through one, we must be working to create an environment where demonstrable integrity wins on its own against money. This cannot be set aside for the sake of our own money in the primaries stage, or we're just postponing our own goals needlessly. We create reality through work; if we do the right work, the dynamics change in response. We can't just react to district demos as if they are unalterable truths. We need to shift the politics of the electorate by giving them surprisingly good people to represent them.

                            Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

                            by Leftcandid on Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 07:12:28 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

  •  Fundraising (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, SLDemocrat, MichaelNY

    Heh, my dad and I are hosting a decent sized fundraiser for a US Rep soon... thinking about the sum we're going to (or at least will try to) raise compared to that million Berman raised is astounding.

    18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite.

    by IllinoyedR on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 06:47:01 AM PST

  •  Sean Duffy and Bob Dold (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    That $254 is a nice haul for a freshman in a rural district with no pockets of wealth.

    Dold had a nice haul, too. Sheyman and Schneider need to pick it up if they want to compete in a very expensive media market. I suspect they've maxed out in pre-primary dollars in Morain Township (Highland Park and Deerfield) and Glencoe, both of which are majority Jewish and have a lot of money (and have provided a hugely disproportional amount of money for the Jewish Schneider and Sheyman). It'll be interesting to see if they can transition to fundraising districtwide.

    18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite.

    by IllinoyedR on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 06:51:56 AM PST

    •  I wouldn't be surprised if... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      a lot of donors are sitting on their dollars until after the primary -- functionally, there's not a huge difference between the candidates.

      One doesn't need to raise districtwide like you say -- let's be clear, you're not really going to squeeze dollars out of Waukegan, even if you're a Democrat.

      There's nothing wrong with taking dollars from (wealthy) out-of-district donors in areas like Evanston or Kenilworth.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

      by jeffmd on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 07:33:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kenilworth (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        I'm willing to bet that Kenilworth (and Winnetka and Northfield for that matter) will have one of the largest Obama vote share drops of any area of suburban Chicago in 2014, but there are enough wealthy liberals here to donate money. Evanston doesn't have that much wealth but there are certainly pockets of it (and no Republicans, so that wealth is liberal wealth). It's a lot harder to convince people to give you money if they can't vote for you for Congress unless there's some sort of ethnic tie (just look at how well Indian candidates do nationwide).

        Sure, no one is going to rake money in Waukegan, but how about Northbrook? Lake Forest? Mundelein? Vernon Hills? Lake Bluff? They need more than Morain Township and Glencoe to fundraise in IL-10 as well as Bob Dold does.

        18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite.

        by IllinoyedR on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 07:59:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Firstly... (5+ / 0-)

          I haven't performed any analysis of where the candidates are receiving their money from, so I shouldn't even have engaged on the question of where in the district the money is coming from -- I doubt it's just from Moraine Twp or Glencoe -- since well, I haven't looked -- but if you have, please feel free to share.

          Evanston is fairly wealthy, perhaps not by Lake Forest standards, but by objective criteria -- it's median HHI is comparable to that of Mundelein; this actually underestimates the wealth in the city, since Evanston's figure is downward-biased owing to the large student population. More importantly, Evanston has enough affluent university-affiliated people (and therefore more likely to be politically engaged) that have opened their checkbooks in the past.

          Finally, I think you overestimate the necessity of an ethnic connection -- I don't claim that DKE is representative, but plenty of people here, and people generally, donate to out-of-district (or even out-of-state candidates) precisely because they are Democrats [and have a good chance of winning].

          I don't doubt that will hold true here -- "Chicago liberals" like myself -- will be funneling plenty of money to the likes of Foster, Raja/Duckworth, and whoever happens to win the primary in the 10th.

          Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

          by jeffmd on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:14:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I seriously doubt that fundraising will (5+ / 0-)

      decide this election.  Dold won by two points in 2010.  Granted, now he's an incumbent, but his district was made a bit more Democratic, and 2010 looks unlikely to be mirrored by 2012.  The question is what the national mood will be, and, specific to this district, whether or not Dold's incumbency advantage plus the disparity between this wealthy district's House voting and Presidential voting (a la Nate Silver's Partisan Propensity Index) is enough to outweigh the PVI, Obama's home-state advantage, and maybe Dold's voting record (see below).  Fundraising, I think, is likely to be secondary at best.

       Dold hasn't really modulated his voting, as far as I can tell, casting only a few votes, at least among those recorded by OpenCongress that differ from GOP whip Kevin McCarthy.

      (Those votes?  Dold voted against de-funding Planned Parenthood, against the SOAR act, against a Libya-funding-limitation, and against the "Transparency in Regulatory Analysis of Impacts on the Nation Act of 2011".  There were two other votes where Dold abstained, on withdrawing from Afghanistan and on the "Continuing Appropriations Act, 2012".)

      Anyway, this is not the main point.  As I keep saying, candidates get out-raised or outspent and win anyway, all the time.  I think I found that about half the Democrats who beat incumbents in 2008 out-raised their opponents in at least one quarter--so half didn't.  Many, many Democratic incumbents out-raised or out-spent their opponents in 2010, whether or not outside spending is taken into account, and still lost.  Three incumbents (outside of Texas) lost in 2004, and they all out-spent their opponents.  As wwmiv said, fundraising can actually have a negative correlation with electoral success.  And I certainly don't know of any evidence that candidates need to raise money from a demographically-representative sample of their district!  

      To whatever extent fundraising matters, then as jeffmd says, donors might well be waiting until after the primary.  Once this race becomes Democrat vs. Republican it will be one of the top Democratic pickup opportunities in the nation, and will almost certainly attract the donations and outside spending commensurate with that.  

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:49:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Always amazed (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    at how Allen West (FL-22, soon moving his carpetbagging ass to FL-18) burns through money, almost 4 times the amount of the next biggest spending. It's the same every quarter.

    Just makes you wonder.

    A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

    by kansasr on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:43:23 AM PST

  •  Damn. what's going on in CA-15? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    On the fundraising side, Stark looks pretty embattled, but he was a great Rep when I was living in the district.

    •  Ok, answered my own question :P (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      Recent SFGate article, Pete Stark may put Ro Khanna's rise on hold

      While Stark, who is one of the most liberal members of the House, has long been considered unbeatable in the overwhelmingly Democratic Bay Area, the new lines could change the equation, says Larry Gerston, professor of political science at San Jose State University.

      "A lot of people are going to be vulnerable, if for no other reason than the extent to which districts have shifted," Gerston said, adding that much of Stark's former district "is gone and he's now got a portion of the 10th, which is much more conservative."

      Stark's age and lengthy tenure, as well as rumors about his health, have raised concerns and criticism about his reportedly bizarre behavior at times. His office did not respond to requests for comment.

      •  Yeah, I probably could have included a note (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        About this race, but I'd already spent basically a full day on this post and was dying to get it done. Khanna recently said he would not run this year if Stark seeks re-election, though Corbett has been less clear on this topic.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 10:10:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Allen West (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    looks like he's the go-to bagman for the wingnuts.

    Profoundly humbled by DKos generosity of spirit and selflessness of nature. Forever grateful beyond measure.

    by wretchedhive on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:53:40 AM PST

  •  Minor correction. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, David Nir

    The Congressional Representative for PA-03 is Mike Kelly, not George.  (If he there's a decent Democrat mounting a challenge to him, I haven't heard about it.)

    -5.13,-5.64; If you gave [Jerry Falwell] an enema, you could bury him in a matchbox. -- Christopher Hitchens

    by gizmo59 on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:55:48 AM PST

  •  Ted Vick (D) candidate for SC-07 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Isara, teharper428, MichaelNY

    is a member of ALEC

    no money from me

    a couple of us have been spreading this bit of info around the
    new 7th district of SC.

    Faux News ruined my state

    by sc kitty on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 08:57:05 AM PST

  •  Miklosi solidly ahead of conservadem in CO-06. (0+ / 0-)

    Good; let's keep it that way.

    Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

    by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:39:46 AM PST

  •  In terms of contributions, I'll add, as he trails (0+ / 0-)

    in cash on hand, because Haney is the wealthy self-funding conservadem.

    Before elections have their consequences, Activism has consequences for elections.

    by Leftcandid on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 09:43:40 AM PST

  •  Rick Nolan's numbers are bad considering he was a (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    former congressman, Tarryl Clark most likely has this one

  •  Il13 Is Gill still the favorite in the primary? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    46K isnt exactly good fundraising for a competitive house race. Not saying Goetten's numbers are outstanding either but they are better. I really know nothing about these two dems so maybe Gill might be better but his fundraising isnt showing it.

    •  I'm not sure Gill ever was the favorite (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, jeffmd, MichaelNY

      He ran against Johnson three times already and lost badly each time.  Goetten's entry into the race gives us, at least on paper, a viable opponent for Johnson.  Unless Goetten screws up horribly he should be the favorite easily against Gill.

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college) Currently helping elect great young progressives to the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee! http://www.newleadersofneworleans.com/

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 11:25:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI - 13th - Glenn Anderson (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, MichaelNY

    State Senator Glenn Anderson (D) is also running in the MI-13th.  He is doing well with fundraising and should make that race interesting.  Check out his website:

    Glenn Anderson for Congress

  •  Wow, our California recruits especially... (7+ / 0-)

    Are fundraising gangbusters.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 01:36:38 PM PST

  •  Raul Ruiz, CA-36 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

     Not a bad quarter from him against Bono-Mack. Her district moved a bit right because of redistricting, but she won by a pretty crappy 9 points in 2010. Ruiz may have a chance.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 03:17:11 PM PST

  •  WA-10 (0+ / 0-)

    Stan Fleming is a money machine.  I haven't seen donor depth that strong in years.  Denny Heck better watch out.  He's going to get Romney'd.

    Life is a grindstone; whether it grinds you down or polishes you up depends on what you're made of. Jacob M. Braude

    by Grannus on Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 04:21:14 PM PST

    •  so he'll win the nomination? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, Grannus

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Sun Feb 05, 2012 at 01:56:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nah. (0+ / 0-)

        He'll lose due to overwhelming apathy.  Heck isn't my ideal candidate, but he can at least raise money.

        Life is a grindstone; whether it grinds you down or polishes you up depends on what you're made of. Jacob M. Braude

        by Grannus on Sun Feb 05, 2012 at 08:14:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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