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For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans control the entire redistricting process in North Carolina.. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.

North Carolina has been in the news (at least here on DKE) a lot lately, with two Democrats deciding not the run for re-election; Governor Bev Perdue (where her retirement could potentially help Team Blue's chances, but the situation as a whole is still somewhat hopeless) and Rep. Heath Shuler, District 11 (without whom the district is likely a lost cause). North Carolina is growing fast, and is likely to gain at least one more district in the 2020 census.

Republicans control both houses of the NC Legislature (in the wave of 2010), and Gov. Perdue does not get a veto of a redistricting plan, so Republicans rightly screwed us in the new map. Link to the adopted plan.

Previous Doubling Diaries: MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

North Carolina gets 27 districts, one more than Double their current 13.

The Dem Average is made up of "All 2004-2010 statewide races"

East/Research Triangle


1
VAP: 44 White, 50.6 Black
63.9 Obama, 67.2 Dem

Open; black majority. The Coastal Plain, cities of Tarboro, Roanoke Rapids and Williamston. Safe D, black pickup

2
VAP: 37.1 W, 50.2 B, 10.2 Hispanic
71.5 Obama, 71.4 Dem

G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson) lives here; black majority. Cities of Wilson and Rocky Mount, and reaching into the black areas of Durham and Raleigh. Safe for the whitest member of the Congressional Black Caucus. Safe D, black hold

3
VAP: 63.2 W, 29.8 B
51.1 Obama, 53.5 Dem

Walter Jones, Jr. (R-Farmville) lives here. North Coastal Plain and most of the Outer Banks. This resembles Jones' current district, but it takes in pretty much all of the blue parts (Goldsboro, Greenville and Washington) while leaving the reddest to the 4th. Jones more than likely jumps ship to run there, because I doubt he can survive a 13-point jump in both Obama performance and black VAP. As this district is ancestrally Democratic, and no Republican won a district Obama won even in 2010 in the Tar Heel State, I'm calling this Lean Dem

4
VAP: 74 W, 17.5 B, 5.5 H
39.1 Obama, 42.6 Dem

Open. Southern Outer Banks, cities of Havelock and New Bern. As I said, Walter Jones most likely runs here, he only lives just outside it and already represents the lion's share, and it resembles his current district (politically and demographically speaking) much better. Safe R

5
VAP: 65.7 W, 21.9 B, 9.3 H
47.7 Obama, 50.2 Dem

Open. Jacksonville, Camp Lejeune, Clinton and the blue parts of Wilmington. This is probably where Mike McIntyre wants to run, out of his three options. The 7th, where his home of Lumberton is, is far too blue, he'd never make it out of the primary. Conversely, the 6th is likely too red for his liking, even though it's similar to the NC-07 he's running for now. This district, however, is slightly more blue than his current one, but not so much that it endangers him as a Blue Dog. There's some new territory for McIntyre, but he'd do just fine. Safe D with McIntyre, Lean R if Open

6
VAP: 78.2 W, 14.4 B
42.6 Obama, 46.6 Dem

Open. The rest of Wilmington, cities of Long Beach, Carolina Beach and Elizabethtown. This is actually not a bad option for McIntyre. He represents about 100% of it already, and it's slightly more blue than the redrawn NC-07 he's running for now. He'd probably be fine in any non-2010 year. Likely D with McIntyre, Safe R if open

7
VAP: 38.5 W, 34.5 B, 7.5 H, 15.6 Native
62.1 Obama, 64.2 Dem

Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton) lives here; plurality white, just this side of a racial clusterfuck. Cities of Lumberton and Laurinberg, and most of Fayetteville. Even though McIntyre lives here, like I said he would most likely run in the 5th or 6th, this district is far too blue. Opportunity for an African American in the primary. Safe D, black opportunity

8
VAP: 62.6 W, 23.7 B, 9 H
46.8 Obama, 49.1 Dem

Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) lives here. Cities of Dunn, Sanford and Anderson Creek, and Fort Bragg. Ellmers is basically an accidental freshman, swept into office on the 2010 wave and incumbent Bob Etheridge's problems with assaulting a student, and even then only winning by 1500 votes. Ellmers would have been in trouble with Etheridge running for re-election, even in a redrawn and redder district. But now Etheridge is running for Governor, and Ellmers, while not safe with Obama likely to contest North Carolina as hard as he can, she can breathe easier. Lean R

9
VAP: 71.6 W, 16.9 B, 9.5 H
37.9 Obama, 40.3 Dem

Open. Raleigh suburbs. Safe R

10
VAP: 63.7 W, 21.5 B, 9.3 H
58.8 Obama, 55.8 Dem

Brad Miller (D-Raleigh) lives here. Since Miller's explicit reason for retiring was to avoid a potentially ugly primary with David Price, with whom he was drawn together in the Republican redistricting map, I believe he would unretire to run here. Politically and demographically, this is almost a carbon copy of his current 13th district. He loses a lot of his geographic territory, which moves to the 12, but he represents the majority of this new district. Safe D

11
VAP: 70.7 W, 12.9 B, 6 H, 8.8 Asian
55.8 Obama, 50.9 Dem

Open. Outer Raleigh and Durham. Definitely trending our way. Lean D

12
VAP: 65.5 W, 20.4 B, 7.7 H
65.4 Obama, 64 Dem

David Price (D-Chapel Hill) lives here. Chapel Hill, Roxboro, Oxford and part of Durham. Price takes in part of Brad Miller's geographic territory, but he'll be just fine here. Safe D

Central


13
VAP: 56.6 W, 33 B, 6.7 H
58.9 Obama, 57.7 Dem

Open. Burlington and half of Greensboro. Safe D

14
VAP: 52.6 W, 33 B, 9.4 H
63.4 Obama, 60.4 Dem

Howard Coble (R-Greensboro) lives here. The other half of Greensboro, High Point and part of Winston-Salem. Coble, the 10th oldest member of member of the House (and 5th oldest Republican) runs somewhere else, if he doesn't retire. Safe D

15
VAP: 71 W, 17.3 B, 8.3 H
47.1 Obama, 45.9 Dem

Open. Winston-Salem, Asheboro, Thomasville, Salisbury and Statesville. A pretty blatant political gerrymander, I tried to make the most politically competitive district out of central NC. May be trending towards us, but a Mike McIntyre-type Democrat could thrive here. Lean R for now

16
VAP: 28.2 W, 50.9 B, 14.4 H
81.8 Obama, 77.5 Dem

Mel Watt (D-Charlotte) lives here; majority black. Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte) could potentially live here too, or in the 17th, 18th or 22nd, as her voting district is unclear. But she wouldn't run here anyway. Charlotte. In undoing the horrendous political and racial gerrymander that is the current NC-12, you can actually make a majority black district entirely in Charlotte under Doubling. Safe D, black hold

17
VAP: 62.9 W, 21.8 B, 10.5 H
53 Obama, 50.5 Dem

Larry Kissell (D-Star) lives just outside this district, in the 26th, although his official stated residence is Biscoe, which is within this district. Southern Pines, Rockingham, Monroe and the remaining blue areas of Charlotte. If Kissell can survive in 2010, he's probably fine here for a long while. Likely D

18
VAP: 79.4 W, 9.8 B, 6.2 H
41.2 Obama, 36.7 Dem

Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte) more likely than not lives here. I'd bet money that this is where she runs regardless. Remainders of Charlotte/Mecklenburg County and Union County. Safe R

22
VAP: 71.7 W, 17.5 B, 5.9 H
47.2 Obama, 43.2 Dem

Open. Charlotte suburbs. As with the 15th, someone in the mold of Bob Etheridge or Mike McIntyre could make this competitive. Without an obvious candidate, I'll call this Lean R

24
VAP: 86.2 W, 6.7 B
32.6 Obama, 32.7 Dem

Open. Suburban Greensboro and Winston-Salem. Safe R

25
VAP: 84.3 W, 8.1 B
34.7 Obama, 35.5 Dem

Patrick "Major Douche" McHenry (R-Cherryville) lives here. Hickory, Lincolnton, Mooresville. McHenry could conceivably run here or in the neighboring 21st, they both contain roughly half of his territory. Safe R

26
VAP: 82.4 W, 9.9 B, 5.5 H
33.8 Obama, 35.1 Dem

Open. Between Charlotte and Winston-Salem/Greensboro (Abermarle, Kannapolis, Concord). Safe R

27
VAP: 81.2 W, 9.1 B, 6.6 H
40.7 Obama, 40 Dem

Open. Rural central NC, reaching into Raleigh suburbs (Siler City, Pittsboro, Holly Springs). If Coble runs anywhere, it's probably here. Safe R

19
VAP: 86.2 W, 5.6 B
55 Obama, 55.1 Dem

Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville) lives here. Asheville, Waynesville and the blue areas of Hendersonville and Morganton. While Shuler didn't explicitly cite redistricting as his reason for choosing to not seek re-election, you'd be a fool to believe otherwise. He went from a 47% Obama district currently to a 40% O under the Republican's redistricting plan. Well, with this district, Shuler could easily return to Congress, and perhaps even move a little to the left (in this district, if he didn't he'd be primaried). Even if he doesn't run here, a Dem would be favored here. Maybe Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt? Safe D with Shuler, Likely D otherwise

20
VAP: 90.9 W
38.5 Obama, 40.6 Dem

Open. The current NC-11 minus all the blue parts, basically. The whitest district in the state. Safe R

21
VAP: 87.8 W, 7.3 B
37.9 Obama, 40.8 Dem

Virginia "Raging Homophobe" Foxx (R-Banner Elk) lives here. Shelby, Boone, Grassy Creek and Lenoir. Foxx may run in the neighboring 23rd instead of here, it more resembles her current NC-05. Similarly, as I mentioned earlier Patrick McHenry may choose to run here instead of his home district, the 25th. Doesn't matter all that much. Safe R

23
VAP: 86.9 W, 7.4 B
35 Obama, 38.8 Dem

Open. Mulberry, Mount Airy, Reidsville. As I said, Virginia Foxx may choose to run here instead of her home district, the 21st, more of her territory is here. Safe R
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North Carolina's current delegation is 7-6 Democratic, but the Republican-drawn map attempted to eliminate 3 of those Dems; Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler and either David Price or Brad Miller. Well, they succeeded in two out of three of those, and for all we know McIntyre could be eliminated in the general election. This map, however, is a pretty even 13-14, with three districts I have counted as Republican being within reach for the right Democrat, but not quite Swing. This includes one new black Democrat to join Butterfield and Watt, with another solid opportunity for African Americans in the 7th.

The entire House so far stands at 150-132-31

Poll

Can Democrats win NC-08, NC-15 or NC-22?

25%5 votes
20%4 votes
40%8 votes
15%3 votes

| 20 votes | Vote | Results

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