Do or die time for Rick Santorum (Gage Skidmore)
Mitt Romney barely cracked 50 percent in the no-turnout Nevada caucuses, but it's clear Republicans are still not rallying around his candidacy. They just don't like him. But he's also been lucky in his opposition—luck that continues to this day.
Rick Santorum has been waiting around, despite a lack of results since Iowa, on the hope that Newt Gingrich implodes. It hasn't been a bad strategy, and Newt has been on a slow-mo implosion trajectory since his South Carolina victory. But, if there's a time to make a move, it'll be Tuesday night. Either Santorum wins big, or he's effectively done.
There are contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (a glorified taxpayer-funded beauty contest with no delegates awarded). PPP has numbers in Colorado and Minnesota:
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich can't afford a third-place finish to Santorum, particularly because ...
Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.
... and ...
In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul.
Romney has cancelled all appearances in Minnesota and is focusing on Colorado. He's clearly conceding the state. If PPP is right, Santorum will take it.
And given Romney's difficulties getting 50 percent of the vote in most contests, there is a very real chance that he loses Missouri (and its frothily conservative Republican electorate) without Gingrich splitting the not-Mitt-Romney-but-also-not-Ron-Paul vote. Sure, it's a glorified beauty contest, but it's still an election that exists.
So there's a very real possibility that Santorum ends the night winning two of three, with a solid second-place finish in Colorado. If so, Gingrich will lose much of the impetus for his campaign (the "conservative alternative" to Romney), and there won't be much opportunities to pick up momentum for the rest of the month. Indeed, the only contests left until Super Tuesday on March 3 6 will be primaries in Arizona and Michigan on February 28. That's a loooong time for Gingrich to sit around with nothing to show but a string of bad defeats, a wavering sugardaddy, and continued and relentless scorn from the GOP establishment.
On the other hand, if Santorum has his big night, he gets to camp out in Arizona and make a strong play for that state's crazy reactionary wing (Romney will play native son in Michigan), and propels himself into Super Tuesday as the de facto Not-Mitt-Romney.
It's been a while since we've had a suspenseful election night, but tomorrow has plenty of it.
Update: Swapped out Santorum quote about doing well in Missouri with actual poll results from Missouri.