Yeah, I know it's crazy to look forward a decade in redistricting when you only have 2010 Census data to work with, but something piqued my curiosity. I saw in a forecast that Colorado is expected to gain an 8th Congressional District after the 2020 round of the Census. I decided to open up DRA and see how far Democrats could go with 8 districts to work with, assuming they control the entire state legislature and the governorship then. For this Dem gerrymander, I'm using 2008 Presidential Election numbers to gauge districts and assuming that all Congressmen in Colorado are still there in a decade. Naturally, 2010 statistics will be very inaccurate by 2020, but they're all I have.
More below the fold.
First, let me post the map of the whole state, then I'll zoom in on several important areas so you can see the finer details.
Denver Metropolitan Area:
Boulder, Fort Collins, and Longmont area:
Colorado Springs:
CD-1 (blue): Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver)
Old Numbers: 74% Obama/24% McCain
New Numbers: 69.4% Obama/29.1% McCain
DeGette's district loses a bit of Denver and picks up conservative rural land to the east, but she shouldn't mind.
CD-2 (green): Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder)
Old Numbers: 64% Obama/34% McCain
New Numbers: 60.7% Obama/37.6% McCain
This district is used to mop up a lot of the conservative, but sparsely populated eastern fringe from CO-4. Also, Rep. Cory Gardner now lives in this district.
CD-3 (dark magenta): Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez)
Old Numbers: 47% Obama/50% McCain
New Numbers: 57.7% Obama/40.6% McCain
Yep, Tipton is doomed. This district loses a lot of the Western Slope, takes in the Democratic core of Colorado Springs, and takes in Dem-leaning territory of west-central Colorado.
CD-4 (red): Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Yuma)
Old Numbers: 49% Obama/50% McCain
New Numbers: 53.6% Obama/44.6% McCain
Yuma is now far-separated from this district (it is now in CO-2). I call this the Schaffer-mander as it is drawn perfectly for Senate President Brandon Schaffer of Fort Collins.
CD-5 (gold): Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs)
Old Numbers: 40% Obama/59% McCain
New Numbers: 35.8% Obama/62.7% McCain
Republican vote sink.
CD-6 (teal): Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora)
Old Numbers: 46% Obama/53% McCain
New Numbers: 56.0% Obama/42.4% McCain
Hey, Coffman lives in Aurora, now he gets all of it! Of course that means his district will likely buck him off under these lines.
CD-7 (dark grey): Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden)
Old Numbers: 59% Obama/40% McCain
New Numbers: 56.2% Obama/42.0% McCain
Everyone's favorite cartwheeling Congressman now gets a district that stays on one side of Denver and drops the earmuff shape it once had. Perlmutter takes a hit in partisan numbers, but since he dispatched a highly-touted Republican challenger in 2010 by double digits, I think he is pretty much set.
CD-8 (slate blue): NEW DISTRICT
New Numbers: 41.1% Obama/57.4% McCain
The second and final Republican district in the state. I guess it would favor a candidate from Grand Junction or the Denver suburbs.