For those wondering how long it would be after the Santorum Sweep on Tuesday before we would see tangible evidence of a bounce, this tweet from PPP's Tom Jensen really ought to suffice:
We put a national poll in the field today and pretty clear your new leader is Rick Santorum.As the kids say, the shit just got real on the Republican side.
Most of today's polling releases don't reflect the same surge too much, since the bulk of these polls were in the field before Santorum hit the trifecta on Tuesday. But you see some signs, including the first time in a poll in eons that Santorum has claimed a primary lead in his home state of Pennsylvania (which, dare I say, may prove relevant despite its position towards the end of the primary calendar).
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 36, Gingrich 20, Santorum 20, Paul 10We also see a little tangible evidence of a Santorum bump in the general election numbers, albeit from Rasmussen. Rasmussen seems to be especially bearish on the Romney electability factor this week. Yesterday, they had Newt Gingrich outperforming Romney nationally (which, honestly, does not seem credible). Today, they had Santorum outperforming Romney in Ohio (which is exponentially more believable).MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research): Romney 31, Gingrich 16, Paul 15, Santorum 15
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research): Santorum 30, Romney 29, Gingrich 13, Paul 9
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (48-42)Some thoughts on the legitimacy of the Santorum bounce, right after the jump.ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune/WGN): Obama d. Romney (56-35); Obama d. Gingrich (58-30)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-46); Obama d. Santorum (48-46); Obama d. Gingrich (50-45); Obama d. Paul (47-41)
OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama tied with Santorum (44-44); Obama d. Romney (45-41)
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research): Romney d. Obama (45-43); Obama d. Santorum (47-43)
It is pretty close to a certainty that there will be multiple polls before next week showing Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tightening at the front of the GOP pack. If the tweet from Tom Jensen at PPP is any indication, we will see Santorum at the front of the field in at least some of those polls.
But is this surge real unlike the previous flirtations with someone other than Mitt Romney?
We have seen this movie play out before, of course. About a dozen times, if memory serves. Newt Gingrich has had two bites of the apple, as has Rick Santorum (kind of ... after Iowa), Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump. Hell, it's easier to list the GOP presidential hopefuls that didn't seize the lead from Mitt Romney than it is to list the ones who have.
Eventually, though, a combination of money, favorable terrain, or ineptitude on the part of his rivals moves Romney back to the front of the line.
What of the inevitable second wave of Santorum (sorry, couldn't resist)? If one believes Team Santorum, money might be a bit less of an issue after Tuesday. And, granting the former senator from Pennsylvania the faintest of praise, he is less likely to be the victim of implosion than the former anti-Romney, Newt Gingrich.
But terrain remains a bit of an issue, as does the calendar. Santorum lacks a venue to capitalize on his boomlet--his apparent peak will come right when the primary calendar goes quiet for three weeks. When the voters return to the polls, it will be in Arizona and Michigan. On paper, these should be two great states for Romney. Arizona has looked good for Romney throughout the cycle, thus it shouldn't be surprising that Santorum is apparently going to focus on Michigan, instead. While Michigan is a quasi-home state for Romney (whose father was the state's governor), he only won the state by 9 percent in 2008. The poll linked above gives a slightly misleading picture of Romney's position in the state: it was conducted late last week, thus predating the Santorum trifecta. Even at that, he sits more than a half-dozen points below the percentage he claimed back in 2008.
Furthermore, the lapse in elections could also work in Santorum's favor in another way: that is three weeks for Newt Gingrich to be dismissed as irrelevant to the race. While I wouldn't wager a dime on him dropping out before Arizona and Michigan (his ego won't permit it), it is not hard to imagine Santorum mopping up the lion's share of the anti-Romney vote. Where that vote is evenly split in today's Gallup tracking poll, I wouldn't be shocked to see something closer to Santorum at 30 percent and Gingrich at 10 percent by the end of next week.
In the final analysis, I suspect that Mitt Romney is still the heavy betting favorite to become the GOP nominee. But there is a roadmap for Santorum, which is something that seemed unfathomable at this point last week.
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