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Joke stolen from jeffmd

For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in Nebraska and there's split control in Missouri. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.

Nebraska, for Presidential elections, allocates its electoral votes by congressional district. I wanted to see if I could make two districts that a Democrat could win. In Missouri, I mostly just wanted to give Russ Carnahan a district and keep Democrats from being ghettoized to just St. Louis and Kansas City.

Links to the adopted plans in Nebraska and Missouri

Previous Doubling Diaries: NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Nebraska


Nebraska gets only 5 districts, one short of a true Doubling.

The Dem average is:

  • All 2006 statewide races
  • U.S. House races 2006
  • President 2008
  • Senate 2008
  • U.S. House races 2008

3
VAP: 91.1 W
38.5 Obama, 35.4 Dem

Open. Outer Omaha and the red suburbs. Terry and Fortenberry could both conceivably run here, but if they both did Fortenberry would have the advantage. Safe R

4
VAP: 92.5 W, 5.5 H
32.1 Obama, 34.5 Dem

Open. I don't know what to call this other than "The Middle". If Fortenberry and Terry both want to try and return to Congress, Fortenberry would run here and leave the 3rd to Terry. Safe R

5
VAP: 88.3 W, 9 H
27.5 Obama, 31.9 Dem

Adrian Smith (R-Gering) lives here. Bigass western 2/3 of the state. Safe R

1
VAP: 69.1 White, 14.1 Black, 12 Hispanic
57.4 Obama, 52.7 Dem

Lee Terry (R-Omaha) lives here. Already vulnerable from living in an Obama district. Terry would likely move to the much more friendly 3rd where, irony of ironies, he'd be vulnerable in a primary for attempting to moderate since he lives in an Obama district. This district is the majority of the city of Omaha and some of the southern suburbs. For Nebraska, I'd call this Safe D

2
VAP: 85.9 W, 6 H
49.1 Obama, 43.8 Dem

Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln) lives here. Lincoln/Seward and crawling up the eastern border, picking up every Democratic area outside Omaha, including Fremont. Since McCain only won this district by 2300 votes, I think a Lincoln-based Dem could easily win this. Fortenberry will probably want to move to the 4th. Lean D
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Nebraska goes from a 0-3 delegation to a 2-3. Everyone's happy!

Missouri


Missouri gets 17 districts, 1 less than double their current 9 districts, but one more than double the 8 they'll have after 2012.

The Dem average includes:

  • All 2008 statewide races
  • U.S. House races 2008

5
VAP: 89.6 W, 5.4 B
51.2 Obama, 53.5 Dem

Open. The Dem-leaning outer suburbs of St. Louis and up into Columbus. Probably out of reach for anyone too liberal, but for a Jay Nixon-type Democrat, this would be Likely D

9
VAP: 89.7 W
46.2 Obama, 49.8 Dem

Open. Northern Kansas City suburbs, including St. Joseph. Former longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Lexington) lives here, and in any non-2010 year he'd probably win this running away. But he's 80 now, and may not want to campaign for a seat with any new territory. Likely D with Skelton, Likely R without

10
VAP: 93.5 W
39.2 Obama, 43.6 Dem

Sam Graves (R-Tarkio) lives here. The northern tier. Safe R

11
VAP: 92.5 W
41.9 Obama, 45.2 Dem

Open. "Little Dixie". Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth) doesn't live here, but this covers a lot of his current territory, so he may move here. Safe R

12
VAP: 92.8 W
36.6 Obama, 43.2 Dem

Blaine Luetkemeyer lives here. Central Missouri, including the capital city of Jefferson City. Luetkemeyer would also be just fine if he chose to run here. Safe R

13
VAP: 93 W
38.9 Obama, 45.2 Dem

Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) lives here. Southern Kansas City suburbs and into the Springfield suburbs. Safe R

14
VAP: 91.8 W
39.6 Obama, 41.5 Dem

Billy Long (R-Springfield) lives here. Springfield, whaddaya know. Safe R

15
VAP: 91.1 W
31.5 Obama, 32.2 Dem

Open. Southwestern corner of the state. Blood red. Safe R

16
VAP: 91.6 W
34.2 Obama, 39.3 Dem

Open. South Central. The only remarkable thing about this district is it contains the mean center of the United States population, in Texas County. Safe R

17
VAP: 90 W, 6.7 B
35.3 Obama, 38.9 Dem

Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau) lives here. Southeastern part of the state. Emerson, while certainly no RINO, has a moderate reputation and could be vulnerable in a primary. Safe R

St. Louis


1
VAP: 51.3 W, 43.9 B
73.3 Obama, 77.6 Dem

Open. Northern St. Louis County. Opening for a black Democrat in the primary. Safe D, black opportunity

2
VAP: 40.8 W, 50.8 B
86.5 Obama, 86.8 Dem

Lacy Clay and Russ Carnahan (both D-St. Louis) live here, but Carnahan would run in the 1st or 3rd. Majority black, independent City of St. Louis and part of St. Louis County. Clay is a traitorous asshole who lobbied for the Republican-drawn congressional map that eliminated Carnahan, because the map also saved his own skin. He doesn't deserve this district. Safe D, black hold

3
VAP: 85.3 W, 6.4 B
57.3 Obama, 57.7 Dem

Open. Southern tip of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. Carnahan probably runs here; it's a little less blue than his current MO-3, but he'd be safe from a primary. And at least he gets to return to Congress. Safe D

4
VAP: 95.5 W
48.6 Obama, 53.9 Dem

Open. The remainder of Carnahan's current MO-03, this is pretty marginal, but if the right kind of Democrat runs (like Treasurer Clint Zweifel), this would be Likely D, but without an obvious candidate I would call it Swing

7
VAP: 90 W
41.9 Obama, 42.2 Dem

Open; Todd Akin (R-Wildwood) is running for Senate. Outer St. Louis and St. Charles Counties. Safe R

Kansas City


6
VAP: 48.6 W, 37.1 B, 9.5 H
76.6 Obama, 77.7 Dem

Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) lives here; plurality white. Kansas City. The district becomes a lot blacker and therefore much safer for Cleaver. Though again, he was tacitly in favor of the GOP-drawn map, so he doesn't deserve it. Safe D, black hold

8
VAP: 85.5 W, 6 B
50.7 Obama, 53.7 Dem

Open. Part of Kansas City and Independence. State Senate Minority Leader Victor Callahan, who lives in Independence, would probably like to run here. Lean D
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Missouri currently has a 3-6 delegation, and moved to a 2-6 in redistricting. But in Doubling, we get a 7-9-1 map (assuming Skelton runs for the 9th, which we will). This this allows all 8 Congressmen who are running for re-election to return to Congress, as well as an opportunity for a new African-American representative to join Clay and Cleaver in the delegation.

Nebraska and Missouri together make 9-12-1, bringing the House as a whole so far to 159-144-32

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 07:05:38 AM PST

  •  why? (0+ / 0-)

    The nicest and most intelligent people are the ones that share my point of view.

    by jbou on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 07:21:35 AM PST

  •  These are always a fun read. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; -3.50, -3.18

    by General Goose on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 08:01:59 AM PST

  •  Countermap (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, wwmiv

    CD7 (Ste. Genevieve, Rolla, etc): 91W. MC56/O42, R52/D48. Open. Leans R.

    CD8 (Warrensburg, Clinton, Sedalia, Boonville, Lebanon): 90W. MC61/O38, R55/D45. Incumbent is Blaine Luetkemeyer in a largely new district. Strong R.

    CD14 (Northern Missouri): 93W. MC59.5/O39, R58.5/D41.5. Incumbent is Sam Graves. Safe R.

    CD15 (Deepest Southwest MO): 91W. MC67/O31.5, R67/D33. Open, Safe R.

    CD16 (Springfield and Etc): 91W. MC59/O40. R58/D42. Incumbent is Billy Long, Safe R.

    CD17 (SEMO): 88W/8B. MC64/O35, R62/D38. Incumbent is Jo Ann Emerson, Safe R.

    CD1 (North County STL and Eastern St. Charles County): 51B/43W (VAP: 48W/47B). O75/MC24, D79/R21. Open (Lacy Clay's official mailing address during campaigns is a few blocks into STL). Safe D.

    CD2 (St. Louis and Richmond Heights/Maplewood/Shrewsbury): 46W/45B, O82/MC18, D82/R18. Incumbents are Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay. Safe D.

    CD3 (Chesterfield, Maryland Heights, U-City, Kirkwood): W76/B12, O55/MC44, D57/R43. Open, Strong D.

    CD4 (South County STL and Most of Jefferson County): 94W. O51.5/MC47, D55/R45. Open, Leans D.

    CD5 (West St. Charles County and part of Lincoln County): 90W. MC55/O44, R54/D46. Open, Strong R.

    CD6 (West County STL to parts of Cole County): 93W. MC59/O40, R56/D44. Open, Safe R.

    CD9 (Southeast Jackson County to Joplin. Over to Warsaw): 92W. MC64/O35, R60/D40. The Incumbent is Vicky Hartzler, Safe R.

    CD10 (KCMO, Grandview): 49W/35B/11H. O72/MC27. D74/R26. Incumbent is Emanuel Cleaver, Safe D.

    CD11 (Eastern Jackson County and Belton): 79W/11B/6H. O50/MC49, D54/R46. Open, Leans D.

    CD12 (Northern Clay, Ray County, Lexington, Marshall, Kirksville, Columbia): W87/B5. O49.4/MC48.9. D53/R47. Open, Leans D.

    CD13 (Buchanan, Platte, and Southern Clay): W83/B6/H6. MC49.4/O49.2, D51/R49. Open, Tossup.

    10 McCain/7 Obama. 9 Republican/8 Democratic.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 11:35:59 AM PST

    •  Counter maps are fine and dandy. (0+ / 0-)

      But if you're going to do that I would at least appreciate comments on mine.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 03:40:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  ok (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        5 has a slight awkward path from two Dem areas, and probably goes over a bit too many Republican areas (Franklin County and that Perry County divot)

        9 is a bit undermined by having Dem votes put in 6 and 8. There's no reason to put 6 in Clay County, as the Dem votes in 6 would fit in the 8th or 9th

        10 could wrap around into Howard/Boone and the parts of 10 south of the Missouri could go into 12.

        Having Iron County (won by Obama) in 17 instead of 5 seems like a bit of a waste.

        When it comes to 2, I tried to put some balance for the non-STL city part of 2 so that it wouldn't a total sink.

        3 could have lost a few points to get 4 over a majority for Obama (like around Lemay).

        Wrapping 8 around to SW KCMO seems a bit unneeded, as that is the most Republican part of KCMO in Jackson County. The dial on 8 could be moved a bit at the expense of 6.

        The closer view of Jackson County on the counter map

        I guess I could move 11 into NE KC and 10 towards the 2nd half of 11.

        There's 34 State Senate Districts in MO, so think of the 17 districts as 2 State Senate districts

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 04:04:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  My Granny lives in Moberly (1 county upfrom Boone) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Not happy you put her in a Safe R district, but I do like this map.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 11:49:19 AM PST

  •  Nebraska (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    I've been wondering when you'd get around to posting that one considering you drew it over Christmas break.

    22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 12:18:43 PM PST

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