Joke stolen from jeffmd
For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in Nebraska and there's split control in Missouri. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
Nebraska, for Presidential elections, allocates its electoral votes by congressional district. I wanted to see if I could make two districts that a Democrat could win. In Missouri, I mostly just wanted to give Russ Carnahan a district and keep Democrats from being ghettoized to just St. Louis and Kansas City.
Links to the adopted plans in Nebraska and Missouri
Previous Doubling Diaries: NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Nebraska
Nebraska gets only 5 districts, one short of a true Doubling.
The Dem average is:
- All 2006 statewide races
- U.S. House races 2006
- President 2008
- Senate 2008
- U.S. House races 2008
3
VAP: 91.1 W
38.5 Obama, 35.4 Dem
Open. Outer Omaha and the red suburbs. Terry and Fortenberry could both conceivably run here, but if they both did Fortenberry would have the advantage. Safe R
4
VAP: 92.5 W, 5.5 H
32.1 Obama, 34.5 Dem
Open. I don't know what to call this other than "The Middle". If Fortenberry and Terry both want to try and return to Congress, Fortenberry would run here and leave the 3rd to Terry. Safe R
5
VAP: 88.3 W, 9 H
27.5 Obama, 31.9 Dem
Adrian Smith (R-Gering) lives here. Bigass western 2/3 of the state. Safe R
1
VAP: 69.1 White, 14.1 Black, 12 Hispanic
57.4 Obama, 52.7 Dem
Lee Terry (R-Omaha) lives here. Already vulnerable from living in an Obama district. Terry would likely move to the much more friendly 3rd where, irony of ironies, he'd be vulnerable in a primary for attempting to moderate since he lives in an Obama district. This district is the majority of the city of Omaha and some of the southern suburbs. For Nebraska, I'd call this Safe D
2
VAP: 85.9 W, 6 H
49.1 Obama, 43.8 Dem
Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln) lives here. Lincoln/Seward and crawling up the eastern border, picking up every Democratic area outside Omaha, including Fremont. Since McCain only won this district by 2300 votes, I think a Lincoln-based Dem could easily win this. Fortenberry will probably want to move to the 4th. Lean D
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Nebraska goes from a 0-3 delegation to a 2-3. Everyone's happy!
Missouri
Missouri gets 17 districts, 1 less than double their current 9 districts, but one more than double the 8 they'll have after 2012.
The Dem average includes:
- All 2008 statewide races
- U.S. House races 2008
5
VAP: 89.6 W, 5.4 B
51.2 Obama, 53.5 Dem
Open. The Dem-leaning outer suburbs of St. Louis and up into Columbus. Probably out of reach for anyone too liberal, but for a Jay Nixon-type Democrat, this would be Likely D
9
VAP: 89.7 W
46.2 Obama, 49.8 Dem
Open. Northern Kansas City suburbs, including St. Joseph. Former longtime Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Lexington) lives here, and in any non-2010 year he'd probably win this running away. But he's 80 now, and may not want to campaign for a seat with any new territory. Likely D with Skelton, Likely R without
10
VAP: 93.5 W
39.2 Obama, 43.6 Dem
Sam Graves (R-Tarkio) lives here. The northern tier. Safe R
11
VAP: 92.5 W
41.9 Obama, 45.2 Dem
Open. "Little Dixie". Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth) doesn't live here, but this covers a lot of his current territory, so he may move here. Safe R
12
VAP: 92.8 W
36.6 Obama, 43.2 Dem
Blaine Luetkemeyer lives here. Central Missouri, including the capital city of Jefferson City. Luetkemeyer would also be just fine if he chose to run here. Safe R
13
VAP: 93 W
38.9 Obama, 45.2 Dem
Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) lives here. Southern Kansas City suburbs and into the Springfield suburbs. Safe R
14
VAP: 91.8 W
39.6 Obama, 41.5 Dem
Billy Long (R-Springfield) lives here. Springfield, whaddaya know. Safe R
15
VAP: 91.1 W
31.5 Obama, 32.2 Dem
Open. Southwestern corner of the state. Blood red. Safe R
16
VAP: 91.6 W
34.2 Obama, 39.3 Dem
Open. South Central. The only remarkable thing about this district is it contains the mean center of the United States population, in Texas County. Safe R
17
VAP: 90 W, 6.7 B
35.3 Obama, 38.9 Dem
Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau) lives here. Southeastern part of the state. Emerson, while certainly no RINO, has a moderate reputation and could be vulnerable in a primary. Safe R
St. Louis
1
VAP: 51.3 W, 43.9 B
73.3 Obama, 77.6 Dem
Open. Northern St. Louis County. Opening for a black Democrat in the primary. Safe D, black opportunity
2
VAP: 40.8 W, 50.8 B
86.5 Obama, 86.8 Dem
Lacy Clay and Russ Carnahan (both D-St. Louis) live here, but Carnahan would run in the 1st or 3rd. Majority black, independent City of St. Louis and part of St. Louis County. Clay is a traitorous asshole who lobbied for the Republican-drawn congressional map that eliminated Carnahan, because the map also saved his own skin. He doesn't deserve this district. Safe D, black hold
3
VAP: 85.3 W, 6.4 B
57.3 Obama, 57.7 Dem
Open. Southern tip of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. Carnahan probably runs here; it's a little less blue than his current MO-3, but he'd be safe from a primary. And at least he gets to return to Congress. Safe D
4
VAP: 95.5 W
48.6 Obama, 53.9 Dem
Open. The remainder of Carnahan's current MO-03, this is pretty marginal, but if the right kind of Democrat runs (like Treasurer Clint Zweifel), this would be Likely D, but without an obvious candidate I would call it Swing
7
VAP: 90 W
41.9 Obama, 42.2 Dem
Open; Todd Akin (R-Wildwood) is running for Senate. Outer St. Louis and St. Charles Counties. Safe R
Kansas City
6
VAP: 48.6 W, 37.1 B, 9.5 H
76.6 Obama, 77.7 Dem
Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) lives here; plurality white. Kansas City. The district becomes a lot blacker and therefore much safer for Cleaver. Though again, he was tacitly in favor of the GOP-drawn map, so he doesn't deserve it. Safe D, black hold
8
VAP: 85.5 W, 6 B
50.7 Obama, 53.7 Dem
Open. Part of Kansas City and Independence. State Senate Minority Leader Victor Callahan, who lives in Independence, would probably like to run here. Lean D
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Missouri currently has a 3-6 delegation, and moved to a 2-6 in redistricting. But in Doubling, we get a 7-9-1 map (assuming Skelton runs for the 9th, which we will). This this allows all 8 Congressmen who are running for re-election to return to Congress, as well as an opportunity for a new African-American representative to join Clay and Cleaver in the delegation.
Nebraska and Missouri together make 9-12-1, bringing the House as a whole so far to 159-144-32