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# Rank 08/10 Results Cities Who's running?
Redistribution White/
1 27 P: 32/67
G: 30/63
S: 13/65/20
Ft. Walton Bch.
Jeff Miller (R-inc) FL-01 (Miller) 95%
FL-02 (Southerland) 5%
2 15 P: 47/52
G: 52/45
S: 21/49/28
Panama City
Steve Southerland (R-inc)
Ex-state Sen. Al Lawson (D)
State Rep. Leonard Bembry (D)
Bay Co. Dem chair Alvin Peters (D)
FL-02 (Southerland) 91%
FL-01 (Miller) 5%
3 25 P: 40/59
G: 40/56
S: 18/58/23
Clay County
Lake City
Large animal vet Ted Yoho (R)
Cliff Stearns (R-inc) (lives in 11th)
Clay Co. Clerk Jimmy Jett (R)
State Sen. Steve Oelrich (R)
FL-06 (Stearns) 66%
FL-04 (Crenshaw) 16%
4 26 P: 37/63
G: 36/61
S: 17/63/19
Fernandina Beach
Ander Crenshaw (R-inc) FL-04 (Crenshaw) 86%
FL-06 (Stearns) 11%
5 3 P: 71/29
G: 65/32
S: 48/33/18
Corrine Brown (D-inc) FL-03 (Brown) 81%
FL-06 (Stearns) 7%
6 20 P: 45/53
G: 41/55
S: 18/56/25
Daytona Bch.
St. Augustine
Attorney Ron DeSantis (R)
State Rep. Frank Costello (R)
Jacksonville city councilor Richard Clark (R)
Businessman Craig Miller (R)
St. Johns Co. School Bd. chair Bev Slough (R)
FL-07 (Mica) 72%
FL-24 (Adams) 23%
7 12 P: 49/50
G: 46/51
S: 20/56/23
Winter Park
John Mica (R-inc)
Sandy Adams (R-inc)
FL-24 (Adams) 51%
FL-07 (Mica) 42%
8 21 P: 44/55
G: 40/55
S: 16/56/28
Bill Posey (R-inc) FL-15 (Posey) 79%
FL-24 (Adams) 21%
9 7 P: 60/39
G: 53/43
S: 28/47/23
Ex-Rep. Alan Grayson (D)
Attorney Todd Long (R)
Osceola Co. Comm. John Quinones (R)
FL-08 (Webster) 37%
FL-15 (Posey) 35%
FL-24 (Adams) 16%
10 16 P: 47/52
G: 44/52
S: 20/55/23
Disney World
Daniel Webster (R-inc)
Ex-Orlando police chief Val Demings (D)
FL-08 (Webster) 56%
FL-05 (Nugent) 21%
11 22 P: 43/56
G: 40/55
S: 15/53/30
Spring Hill
Rich Nugent (R-inc) FL-05 (Nugent) 59%
FL-06 (Stearns) 28%
12 17 P: 47/52
G: 43/52
S: 12/48/39
Pasco County
Tarpon Spgs.
Gus Bilirakis (R-inc) FL-09 (Bilirakis) 57%
FL-05 (Nugent) 39%
13 9 P: 51/47
G: 49/47
S: 15/41/43
St. Petersburg
Bill Young (R-inc)
Attorney Jessica Ehrlich (D)
FL-10 (Young) 83%
FL-09 (Bilirakis) 16%
14 4 P: 65/34
G: 61/36
S: 29/34/35
Temple Terr.
Kathy Castor (D-inc) FL-11 (Castor) 85%
FL-12 (Ross) 11%
15 18 P: 46/53
G: 44/53
S: 17/50/32
Plant City
Dennis Ross (R-inc) FL-12 (Ross) 53%
FL-09 (Bilirakis) 31%
16 14 P: 48/51
G: 44/52
S: 13/48/39
Vern Buchanan (R-inc)
St. Rep. Keith Fitzgerald (D)
FL-13 (Buchanan) 96%
FL-11 (Castor) 4%
17 23 P: 43/56
G: 39/55
S: 14/53/32
Punta Gorda
Tom Rooney (R-inc) (lives in 18th) FL-16 (Rooney) 37%
FL-12 (Ross) 31%
FL-14 (Mack) 16%
18 10 P: 51/48
G: 47/49
S: 16/50/33
Ft. Pierce
Allen West (R-inc) (lives in 22nd)
Businessman Patrick Murphy (D)
Martin Co. Sheriff Robert Crowder (R)
FL-16 (Rooney) 65%
FL-22 (West) 23%
FL-23 (Hastings) 9%
19 24 P: 42/57
G: 35/61
S: 9/60/30
Ft. Myers
Radio host Trey Radel (R)
Businessman Chauncey Goss (R)
State Rep. Gary Aubuchon (R)
State Rep. Paige Kreegel (R)
FL-14 (Mack) 98%
FL-25 (Rivera) 2%
20 2 P: 80/19
G: 78/20
S: 51/19/29
W. Palm Bch.
Ft. Lauderdale
Alcee Hastings (D-inc) FL-23 (Hastings) 73%
FL-20 (DWS) 12%
21 5 P: 64/36
G: 61/36
S: 19/36/45
Coral Springs
Ted Deutch (D-inc) FL-19 (Deutch) 76%
FL-22 (West) 15%
22 8 P: 57/43
G: 53/44
S: 18/43/39
Palm Beach
Boca Raton
Ex-state Rep. Adam Hasner (R)
Ex-W. Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel (D)
Broward Co. Comm. Kristin Jacobs (D)
FL-22 (West) 57%
FL-19 (Deutch) 18%
FL-20 (DWS) 17%
23 6 P: 62/38
G: 60/38
S: 24/36/39
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-inc) FL-20 (DWS) 66%
FL-17 (Wilson) 14%
FL-18 (IRL) 12%
24 1 P: 86/14
G: 85/14
S: 64/13/22
Miami Gardens
Frederica Wilson (D-inc)
Businessman Rudy Moise (D)
FL-17 (Wilson) 80%
FL-18 (IRL) 9%
25 19 P: 46/54
G: 41/57
S: 16/60/23
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc) FL-21 (MDB) 51%
FL-25 (Rivera) 34%
26 11 P: 50/50
G: 49/49
S: 21/51/27
Key West
David Rivera (R-inc)
'10 candidate Joe Garcia (D)
Businesswoman Gloria Romero Roses (D)
FL-25 (Rivera) 69%
FL-21 (MDB) 18%
27 13 P: 49/51
G: 48/51
S: 18/55/27
Coral Gables
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc) FL-18 (IRL) 67%
FL-21 (MDB) 22%

As promised, here's our Florida cheat sheet. Bookmark it to have all the Florida data -- including who's running where, what old district became what new district, and how the new districts voted in previous elections -- in one handy place. In case it isn't apparent, the "P, G, and S" in the third column are President 2008, Governor 2010, and Senate 2010. For the latter, the results are displayed Kendrick Meek (D)/Marco Rubio (R)/Charlie Crist (I). As with our California cheat sheet, the columns are sortable; the most important one is "rank," which, if you sort on it, displays the districts in order from highest to lowest Obama percentage, so you can isolate which ones are truly competitive.

Our sources for this are the state's spreadsheet on election results and demographics, and our distribution analysis courtesy of resident numbers-cruncher jeffmd. If you want a zoomable, scrollable map, click here.

As a bonus, the state's demographic data is a wealth of information; it even includes the different ethnicities for the Hispanic residents of the districts (important, as Puerto Ricans and Cubans, for instance, had widely divergent voting patterns). For districts that are more than 25% Hispanic:

FL-09: 55% Puerto Rican, 15% South American

FL-14: 31% Puerto Rican, 25% Cuban

FL-23: 39% Central American, 24% Cuban

FL-24: 29% Cuban, 22% Central American

FL-25: 52% Cuba, 16% South American

FL-26: 53% Cuban, 17% South American

FL-27: 56% Cuban, 17% Central American

Also, as with California, this will remain a "living document," updated as candidates enter or leave. Please let us know in comments, or in future daily digests, about any changes that you know of!
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Comment Preferences

  •  Nice work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, Sanuk

    Interesting that Crist actually won two of these districts (Bill Young and Ted Deutch)

    23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

    by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 12:59:16 PM PST

  •  Hispanic Variety (0+ / 0-)

    I'm of the opinion that the map should be keeping Central Americans, to the highest degree possible, in their own district and South American, to the highest degree possible, in their own as well, both distinct from Cuban influence. In the Miami area, the groups do share some overlap, but it is at the margins of their respective territories.

    22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:18:26 PM PST

  •  Sorry for not pertaining to the subject... (0+ / 0-)

    But I just posted a diary for FL, but I can't make it show up in Dkos elections. I added the DK Elections tag. Can anyone help with this? thanks

  •  FL-10 (0+ / 0-)

     Blech, I don't think the tenth is winnable for Val Demings. Rubio got 55%(!) there. Bilirakis' district always looks like it's on the edge of being competitive, but I guess because it's so suburban Democrats have little chance. Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:23:17 PM PST

  •  Interesting... (0+ / 0-)

    That not only FL-5 (as someone corrected me in the other thread) but FL-20 is also an African-American majority seat now.  Does anyone know if they are 50%+1 VAP?  If so the rationale of challenging them is a bit murkier.  I was under the impression from former discussions it was impossible to draw a black majority seat anywhere outside of the North Miami area, but perhaps black population growth over the last decade has changed that.  

  •  Why the hell would Mica want the 7th... (4+ / 0-)

    Not only does is it composed of less than half of his own constituents, it's only 50% McCain.  The 6th is 72% his own constituents and safer at 55% McCain.... baffling.  Where his house is shouldn't matter to where he decides to run given his tenure.

  •  This map isn't final, is it? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Could it be challenged?

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 03:21:21 PM PST

    •  Well final as in it's about to be signed (0+ / 0-)

      Once Rick Scott signs it's technically done.  Of course there are already lawsuits by every Dem not named Corinne Brown relating to the fair districts amendment.  The GOP more or less ignored it with this map and there seems a decent chance the courts throw a wrench into at least parts of the map.

    •  Final in the sense that (0+ / 0-)

      Both houses of the lege have passed it and Scott is sure to sign it. Legal challenges were filed the moment it cleared the Senate. (See today's Live Digest.)

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 08:19:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Final for this round (0+ / 0-)

      Gov Scott has to sign off on the congressional plan and then it's on to the DOJ for review

      The Attorney General has to sign off on the legislative plans and then it's on to the state supreme court for review.

      And already suits have been filed against the plans.

      It will be a long haul before anything is final.

      A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

      by kansasr on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 11:48:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  this is for a state race, MA, (0+ / 0-)

    which may not be a 'change' you meant.

    fwiw. ;)

    Addington's perpwalk is the trailhead of accountability for this wound to our national psyche. (But go ahead and arrest Rumsfeld, too.)

    by greenbird on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 04:00:33 PM PST

  •  LaMarca (0+ / 0-)

    in CD22 is a "potential" candidate. He has formed an exploratory committee.

    I can't imagine him jumping in, given all the party endorsements that Hasner has received so far.

    A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

    by kansasr on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 11:49:21 AM PST

  •  The 26th (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Should be a prime pickup if these maps hold. I also can't see West winning here either.

    "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

    by drhoosierdem on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 03:06:53 PM PST

  •  Pickup opportunities that I spot for Team Blue in (0+ / 0-)

    this map:

    (1) FL-06. This open district is by no means easy terrain for Team Blue, but a first-class ground operation and a good candidate may flip it blue. Particuarly since the lack of anything resembling a natural Republican incumbent may mean a nasty primary on the GOP side.

    (2) FL-07. A 49/50 Obama/McCain district, this has excellent potential to flip, especially if the two GOP incumbents drawn into it go after each other in a primary and the Democrats put some resources and legwork into it.

    (3) FL-10. This, at 47/52 Obama/McCain, isn't as low-hanging fruit as the 7th district is. But it's still reachable, especially if DWS finds a strong candidate to run here.

    (4) FL-12. Much like the 10th district, the 12th is reachable but difficult.

    (5) FL-13. At 51/47 Obama/McCain, this is a PVI+0 district, and thus is easily winnable - especially given Bill Young's age and low profile, as well as the fact that he appears to have been written out of some of the more Republican areas of his old district (old PVI:R+1). People have been speculating about Young's retirement since about 2000, and he's been in there for 40 years. Time to send him home to enjoy his last decade or so of life in peace & quiet.

    (6) FL-15. This, like the 10th and 12th districts, is difficult but not unwinnable terrain for Team Blue. The situation is helped by the fact that Ross was written out of nearly half of his constituents, and thus loses some of his incumbent advantages.

    (7) FL-16. This belongs in the same "low-hanging fruit" basket as does the 7th district. It's made slightly harder than the 7th, due to the fact that Buchanan was able to keep virtually all of his old constituents.

    (8) FL-18. The redrawn 18th should be a Democratic district. It went for Obama in 2008, and Team Blue should be able to make sure that Allan West is succeeded by a Democrat here.

    (9) FL-25. This is a bit harder to reach than the 10th, 12th and 15th districts, but not impossible, especially if the Democrats can undercut Diaz-Balart's identity politics. The fact that Diaz-Balart was drawn out of about half of his old district may make this easier.

    (10) FL-27. This seat is a definite opportunity, at 49/51 Obama/McCain. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen isn't all that bad on some issues (especially as Republicans go), but the district would still be better served by someone who doesn't obsess about changing Cuba's government.

    Overall, I see 10 pickup opportunities, plus the open FL-09 (which Alan Grayson, or any Democrat for that matter, should pick up easily), divided into 4 tiers:

    Top tier - these seats should belong to the Democrats:
    FL-09, FL-13, FL-18.

    Second tier - these seats are neutral or only very slightly Republican-leanding, and a good candidate should be able to win here and make themselves moderately secure simply by being a good Representative:
    FL-07, FL-16, FL-27.

    Third tier - not naturally easy terrain for the Democrats, Team Blue needs to put in a good Florida-wide operation to give candidates here a tailwind, but these are certainly winnable, especially for a moderate Democrat (i.e., something between Nancy Pelosi and a Blue Dog):
    FL-10, FL-12, FL-15.

    Bottom tier - these seats naturally lean Republican, and a Democratic candidate will not only have to win once, but will have to fight hard to keep their job here every election cycle. However, even a small Democratic tailwind can make a lot of difference here:
    FL-06, FL-25.

    Overall, I can see - depending on how much of a coattail President Obama generates here - between 2 and 8 pickups for Team Blue realistically happening.

    Which would certainly make it easier to make Nancy Pelosi the once and future Speaker of the House (Most effective, best damn Speaker there was for decades!).

    I'm seeing a pattern here - lots of red-tinged, but not solidly Republican, districts. Maybe the Dems should start investing in a strong message machine and ground operation throughout Florida, to generate an upset in November?

    I'll be reposting this as a diary, linking back to here.

  •  FL-7- Nick Ruiz (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Although the DCCC is ignoring him, there's a progressive Democratic Party candidate running against Mica/Adams, Nick Ruiz, a former Green Party candidate in the area. Ruiz was the first candidate in the country endorsed by Blue America this cycle; he's the opposite of a corporate hack who plays the game by the Insider rules. It would be worth people more interested in the "better" part (rather than the "more" part) of "More and Better Democrats" to pay attention to him. And if you're interested in contributing to his grassroots campaign, you can do it at the Blue America ActBlue page.

  •  2 areas which I can't find on either the old or (0+ / 0-)

    the new maps, are Wellington and Royal Palm Beach. They used to be in Allen West's district: even though Royal Palm Beach is just up the street from our old district 19 in West Palm Beach.

    In fact some of the communities in West's old district off of Okeechobee Blvd. overlap our district. Are they part of the new 2ist?

    Where is Wellington in all of this? Anyone know?

  •  FL-8 (0+ / 0-)

    I am running against "Birther" Bill Posey in this District.  I have been the lead voter protection lawyer for the Democratic Party in the last 4 election cycles. I expect to raise more money than any previous candidates who have run against Posey or Dave Weldon, his predecessor.  (I have already raised more than Posey's last opponent in just a few months.)  I am running a very pro-science, pro-NASA campaign that should have crossover appeal here on Florida's Space Coast. I am also a recognized member of the local business community and President of Space Coast Tiger Bay Club, a local non-partisan political forum. My full website is under construction with NGP right now, but a splash page currently exists at

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