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What the heck is Newton LeRoy Gingrich up to?

Yes, he's won a primary, in one of the most conservative Republican bastions in America, South Carolina. But he has very little organization and is just as low on campaign funds (although he is pretty wealthy and has had the support of the billionaire Adelman and his Super PAC). But, other than perhaps a few Southern Republican primaries, such as Texas and his home state of Georgia, he seems to have very limited prospects, at best. And yet...he continues.

He seems to be trying to take on the role of a Southern “favorite son” type of candidate who plans to amass as many Southern delegates as possible (and as many from elsewhere as he can muster). But for what purpose?

It seems highly improbable that Gingrich will win the Republican nomination in 2012, or any other year, for that matter. If Gingrich knows he won't be the nominee, then what is he up to?

What keeps coming up in my mind is that he is actually just a “stalking horse.”

A “stalking horse”  is someone who mounts a challenge...on behalf of an anonymous third party or tests a concept for them.

Something that keeps coming up in my mind is the question of who would likely benefit most by a deadlocked convention? For whom might Gingrich be really attempting to amass as much power and delegates?

Is it Jeb Bush?

After all, someone like Gingrich probably loves Jeb Bush. He's from a nearby state, where he was relatively popular as governor, with a record that conservatives would take kindly to. He's got instant name recognition and virtually instant access to massive amounts of money, by virtue of the ongoing political chits that have been accumulated over the years by George Herbert Walker Bush and then George Walker Bush.

And he has something else that probably makes someone like Gingrich quietly delighted: an Hispanic wife. Gingrich is the type of politician who would just love to stick it to as many liberals as possible, by trying to put a giant wedge in one of President Obama and the Democratic Party's key coalition partners, Hispanic-Americans. And while even Gingrich knows that Jeb Bush's wife won't necessarily win the Republican ticket a majority of Hispanics, it could bring in just enough, say 5 or 10 percent, to make a major difference in key swing states (i.e. Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada). In addition, Jeb Bush would likely be the odds-on-favorite to carry Florida were he the nominee, making him an almost instant contender. And a contender who would not have had to have gotten his hands dirty, so to speak, nor have gotten beaten up in a nasty Republican primary campaign.

My guess is that Gingrich is, in fact, a stalking horse for someone else. Even he might not know who that is yet, but it's a pretty sure bet that it's not Willard (Mitt) Romney. Gingrich has a massive ego and since it's highly unlikely that Gingrich will  be the Republican presidential nominee this year, he might be angling for what he might consider the next best thing: being the behind-the-scenes “kingmaker” to whom a Republican president would be deeply indebted. Perhaps he thinks he can do that by steering the nomination to Jeb Bush.

Just a thought.

Originally posted to wdrath on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:29 PM PST.

Also republished by Kos Georgia.

Poll

Is Gingrich a stalking horse and, if so for whom?

7%5 votes
1%1 votes
12%8 votes
23%15 votes
55%36 votes

| 65 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think Jeb has designs on the White House (11+ / 0-)

    but he's smart enough to know that whoever goes up against Obama is dead meat. He won't step up this year. No point in sullying his brand. (Ugh, that brand is Bush. How do you sully it more than it is already?)

    My new favorite RIGHT WING website: NewtCantWin.com It's what the RIGHT thinks of Newt! Enjoy!

    by pucklady on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:35:01 PM PST

    •  3 Bush Terms Created Fewer Jobs Than 1 of Carter (7+ / 0-)

      They both wrecked FEMA and let thousands suffer in hurricane aftermath.

      I guess he'd have to destroy millions of jobs and fi

      --y'know, I don't even want to give him ideas.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:38:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe we've now had 8 Bush terms (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        phonegery

        some of them better than others. Reagan was senile. Who ran things? Probably Daddy Bush. Then the official Bush Sr. term followed by Poppy's adopted son, Bill. So that's 5. Two W terms. W didn't much care about bin Laden, didn't much care about anything so we'll count those as two more Daddy Bush terms. Now I'll whisper, so as not to unhinge anyone....sshhhh...continued perpetual war, tax cuts for the rich, Romneycare instead of real health care reform.

        So that's 8 by my count.

    •  Exactly. (5+ / 0-)

      Jeb is planning on 2016.

      With all this manure around, there must be a pony in here somewhere. - Count Piotr Vorkosigan

      by jrooth on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 02:08:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  it's what's going on in Gingrich's mind (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AnnetteK

      that has me fascinated...like you and many others, it's highly unlikely that there will be deadlocked convention and that Jeb Bush might even want the nomination this year...however...Gingrich sure seems to be up to something...and it seems more than just a vanity campaign for himself (although his ego is so massive as to make that a possibility, for sure).

      After all, Gingrich hasn't exactly been the most "reality-based" politician in American history.

  •  My take is that Newt wouldn't deign to (13+ / 0-)

    front for anyone else. He's a narcissistic bastard who is staying in the race for as long as possible for two reasons: 1) because he hates Romney, 2) because he knows the GOP can't win the presidency in 2012 and he's positioning himself as the "I told you so" gadfly for 2012-2016.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:39:11 PM PST

    •  And he's selling books and tapes (7+ / 0-)

      at the table in the back of the room! Don't leave without one! Self interested grifting for as long as the money keeps coming in. Why shouldn't he stay in the race? It's not costing him a dime.

      Grifters are all about cash flow. This is a long con, and Adelman is the mark.

      "The problems of incompetent, corrupt, corporatist government are incompetence, corruption and corporatism, not government." Jerome a Paris

      by Orinoco on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 02:23:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Absolutely (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        G2geek, wdrath, GAS, Calamity Jean

        It's all about Newt, and the almighty dollar.  Newt came from little, and is now a multi-millionaire.  Of course he wants more book deals, more tv deals, and more press.  Remember (as the Virgin just showed us) you write a mediocre book, have your campaign buy a million copies, and pocket the proceeds.  It's called moneylaundering anywhere else, but here it's just business as usual for a losing candidate.

        By the way.  Ever wonder why the Republican party is so against teachers and the teachers' unions?  Note that Newt's first wife was a teacher, almost lost her job because the teachers union took exception to her sleeping with a 16-year-old Newt, and you understand why Newt has it out for the teachers.  Do a timeline search, and you'll see that the Republican hatred of teachers started under Newt's "leadership" in Congress.

        Second.  Wonder why the Republicans hate tenure of teachers/professors?   Hmmmm.  Which Republican leader was denied tenure (a rare, rare thing) at his university?  Could it have been Newt?  By the way, not getting tenure at a university is huge - it means there was something mighty bad in our boy Newt's performance.  Even sleeping with coeds normally won't cost tenure - it has to be something big.

        Demand Accountability.

        by stlawrence on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 03:45:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  enquiring minds want to know: Calling Anon! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GAS

          If anyone can get the goodies on why Newt didn't get tenure, that would be Anonymous.  And not necessarily by hacking; there's more than one way to get information.

          So what could it be, that's bigger than sleeping with coeds...?

          BTW, excellent point about the teacher-hate syndrome starting at just about the time Newt was cheating on his first wife.   In psychodynamic terms that makes perfect sense.  Someone needs to pin down the details so it's inescapable, and then put that into the national political dialogue.  

          "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

          by G2geek on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 04:51:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  He's greedy though (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AnnetteK, wdrath

      He'd do it if there was enough money to be made.

    •  agreed; skeptical here. what'll happen: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wdrath, Calamity Jean, kaliope

      I don't think Newt is deliberately fronting for anyone but his own Goodyear Blimp sized narcissistic ego.

      However it's highly likely that others in the party are looking to take advantage of whatever Newt stirs up, to forward their own agendas.   Think of them as a pack of dogs following a litterbug, waiting to gobble up any half-eaten food the litterbug drops on the street.  "It's what they do!"

      Given Newt's cognitive shortcomings such as impulsiveness and self-aggrandizement, they will take advantage of anything he does, to position themselves or advance whatever agenda they have.

      As for the nomination, I think it's going to be Mitt for President, and some dominionist probably NAR-affiliated, as VP.  There's a chance the VP slot may got to Santorum; what to look for as a sign of that, is a toning-down of the rhetoric between the two of them: each of them will start "running against Obama" rather than against each other.

      But as for Jeb, no, not this time; the memories are still too fresh.  If Jeb's going to run, it'll be 2016.  And since GWB Senior is in his older years there is a chance he won't be around to see it, in which case Jeb will make much of "the memory of his father."  

      "Minus two votes for the Democrat" equals "plus one vote for the Republican." Arithmetic doesn't care about your feelings.

      by G2geek on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 04:48:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  An interesting idea. I've had thoughts (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Orinoco, wdrath, AnnetteK

    down the same line myself.  I was thinking he is just there to mess up Mittin's chances for some single person or group of concervatives that just can't imagine Romney getting the nomination.  That's the only reason I could think of for Adelman to be kicking that much cash to Newt.  But your alternative has some merit.  I'll bet that Newt would settle for SoS or SoD for his troubles.  Or maybe a SCOTUS appointment?   Of course the repug, whoever it is would still have to beat out Obama.  I don't think they have anyone that's going to do that.

    "A different world cannot be built by indifferent people." Anon from a fortune cookie I got.

    by coloradocomet on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:51:19 PM PST

  •  Newt is a hostage-taker... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Orinoco, AnnetteK, Deward Hastings, G2geek

    he wants coalition-styled concessions for an endorsement down the line.  He'll take payment in a VP slot or Cabinet post.

    Pure grifter.

    It seems curiosity has killed the cat that had my tongue.

    by Murphoney on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:55:15 PM PST

  •  Nancy Brinker at Komen is a friend of the Bushies (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath, Calamity Jean

    She lives in Palm Beach, FL. Just sayin'.

    There's something up, wrt Jeb.  Seems highly unlikely to succeed.

  •  The Palin fans (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IreGyre, Calamity Jean

    at C4P are absolutely convinced Newt is going to hand his delegates and endorsement to Palin at a brokered convention.

    They are already calling her Madam President.

    They crack me up, in the highly unlikely event he did I think we could call it for Obama before a vote was cast.

    "Rage against the machine, vote for Newt, annoy a liberal." Sarah Palin on Fox News 1.28.12. - HaHaHAHaHaHa! me for the next 10 minutes.

    by AnnetteK on Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 02:47:53 PM PST

    •  more evidence that... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AnnetteK

      reality is not necessarily that relevant to many (if not most) Republicans...in fact, they sound delusional to me much of the time...which is why it seems perfectly plausible to me that Gingrich has some secretive scheme up his sleeve, like the one suggested above. Perhaps he's stalking for someone else...or...just being his usual egomaniacal, delusional self...

      ...if Sarah Palin thinks that there's a snowball's chance in heck of a deadlocked convention turning to her...well...what further evidence does one need to demonstrate how truly unqualified she is...for any political office, least of all president.

  •  A book tour scam briefly run riot. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath, IreGyre, Calamity Jean

    Gingrich ran for President in order to sell books, DVDs, et al. to the GOP rubes. Remember in the early days of the campaign, when observers were puzzled by how many of his events were little more than book signings? That's really all he intended. Remember his staff quitting en masse because they realized he wasn't serious about the campaign? They were right--at the time.

    Then Newt's plot got mixed up with that of Mel Brooks' "The Producers." During the run up to the Iowa caucuses, he got his turn as the Not-Romney-of-the-week, and found that he enjoyed it. He has a bit of an ego, if you hadn't heard. Furthermore, he began to think it just might work, if he could figure out how to become the last Not-Romney standing. Hence the big push in South Carolina, followed by the big Florida flameout. Mercurial to the last.

    Now? Who the hell knows? Maybe not even him. I think he knows he can't win the nomination. I can't imagine him accepting the VP slot even if anyone was insane enough to offer it to him--he'd be too bored. That ego precludes the stalking horse theory. If I had to bet (and I actually don't), I'd say he's staying in the race just to fuck with Romney over what he went through in Florida.

  •  Jeb is down 14 points against Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath

    in today's Fox News poll (50-36). So Gingrich might want to look for another white knight.

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