What the heck is Newton LeRoy Gingrich up to?
Yes, he's won a primary, in one of the most conservative Republican bastions in America, South Carolina. But he has very little organization and is just as low on campaign funds (although he is pretty wealthy and has had the support of the billionaire Adelman and his Super PAC). But, other than perhaps a few Southern Republican primaries, such as Texas and his home state of Georgia, he seems to have very limited prospects, at best. And yet...he continues.
He seems to be trying to take on the role of a Southern “favorite son” type of candidate who plans to amass as many Southern delegates as possible (and as many from elsewhere as he can muster). But for what purpose?
It seems highly improbable that Gingrich will win the Republican nomination in 2012, or any other year, for that matter. If Gingrich knows he won't be the nominee, then what is he up to?
What keeps coming up in my mind is that he is actually just a “stalking horse.”
A “stalking horse” is someone who mounts a challenge...on behalf of an anonymous third party or tests a concept for them.
Something that keeps coming up in my mind is the question of who would likely benefit most by a deadlocked convention? For whom might Gingrich be really attempting to amass as much power and delegates?
Is it Jeb Bush?
After all, someone like Gingrich probably loves Jeb Bush. He's from a nearby state, where he was relatively popular as governor, with a record that conservatives would take kindly to. He's got instant name recognition and virtually instant access to massive amounts of money, by virtue of the ongoing political chits that have been accumulated over the years by George Herbert Walker Bush and then George Walker Bush.
And he has something else that probably makes someone like Gingrich quietly delighted: an Hispanic wife. Gingrich is the type of politician who would just love to stick it to as many liberals as possible, by trying to put a giant wedge in one of President Obama and the Democratic Party's key coalition partners, Hispanic-Americans. And while even Gingrich knows that Jeb Bush's wife won't necessarily win the Republican ticket a majority of Hispanics, it could bring in just enough, say 5 or 10 percent, to make a major difference in key swing states (i.e. Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada). In addition, Jeb Bush would likely be the odds-on-favorite to carry Florida were he the nominee, making him an almost instant contender. And a contender who would not have had to have gotten his hands dirty, so to speak, nor have gotten beaten up in a nasty Republican primary campaign.
My guess is that Gingrich is, in fact, a stalking horse for someone else. Even he might not know who that is yet, but it's a pretty sure bet that it's not Willard (Mitt) Romney. Gingrich has a massive ego and since it's highly unlikely that Gingrich will be the Republican presidential nominee this year, he might be angling for what he might consider the next best thing: being the behind-the-scenes “kingmaker” to whom a Republican president would be deeply indebted. Perhaps he thinks he can do that by steering the nomination to Jeb Bush.
Just a thought.