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I'm sure many of you have received the Obama mailing which includes the campaign's electoral map options. For those who haven't I figured it would be a good idea to share.

The mailing includes a fold-out map with different paths to victory drawn out clearly. Some of the paths to victory seem reasonable and some seem likely only if Gingrouch is the Gippie nominee.

Here's a quick breakdown: (all assume O wins Kerry states, a reasonable assumption)

West Path. Win CO, NM NV for 272 EVs
Midwest Path. Win OH and IA for 270 EVs
South Path. Win NC and VA for 274 EVs

Then there's the expansion path, which assumes PA goes Gippie.
Expansion Path. Win AZ for 272 EVs

The mailer I got asks for money so they can be prepared to go whatever route is wisest later in the year. My personal take is that the West Path is most likely, with wins in CO, NM and NV. Though the Kerry map plus OH is ripe too.

The big challenges are laid out clearly too.

Super-PACS
New, restrictive election laws in 14 states
A more challenging electorate
Persuading Indy voters

O definitely knows we're in for a fight. We may be swimming in confidence now, but it's safe to say things will tighten and seemingly solid states will sometimes appear to slip away in the heat of a campaign.

In the final analysis, it's too early to worry about EVs. We don't even know which nut we're going to have to crack. But it's comforting to know that the good guys are aware of the challenges ahead and aren't going to assume anything. Whether we need to fight Mitt Monocles or wipe Santorum off the map we should be ready to fight hard.

Good mailing by the team. I'm writing a check today.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NH will be a dogfight but Obama is looking good (8+ / 0-)

    here now. My felling is the PA will be closer to the Gore win over Bush level. If Penn is 50/50 the Dems superior machine (in Presidential years) will carry them over. Lots of Blacks who didn't vote in 2010 will show up in Philly, and Obama should hold more Union voters in Pittsburgh because of what went on a few hours away in Ohio.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 10:05:03 AM PST

  •  Fired up and ready to go! (8+ / 0-)

    "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." --Gandhi

    by alaprst on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 10:05:32 AM PST

  •  We have to remember congress too. (11+ / 0-)

    Congress is at 10% approval. That should be a rallying cry for all to get busy in those races. I think there is a good chance that we can turn republicans out of office in unity just has they have governed. And keep them away from power for another generation, now that it is clear how dangerous they are anywhere near power. Getting the president reelected is not enough, we want full speed into a better America not limping along listenting to congressional/republican nonsense, foot dragging, and corruption.

  •  They forgot winning back their own party base (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, TofG, SoCalLiberal, pademocrat

    You know, that little thing back in 2010, when most of those people who voted for Obama in 2008 didn't show up or and many who did voted with their anger?

    Nothing has been sorted since then. The problems on the ground keep getting worse.  We've watched wave and wave of sellout to banker interests  And this foreclosure debt deal is going to set off a wave of foreclosures. How do you think that's gonna affect this empty game plan for 'victory'?  

    If Democrats think they can PR their way past an angry electorate - especially one likely to be facing a fresh wave of economic damage - they are kidding themselves.

    The 'indies' they will be chasing will be their own political base: the poor, working and formerly working middle class.

    And they will be very, very pissed.

    •  True, but... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sophie Amrain, BusyinCA

      that was 2010. The thing about presidential elections is that they become choices between two people and two ideas. Sometimes the other side can be so frightening in what it stands for that people show up to the booths to vote.

      Your point as it pertains to congress is more on the nose, though. As congress becomes more and more unpopular and the economic climate ends up NOT being as rosy as the media would have us think (this week) I do think it will be an uphill battle for Dems. They need to convince us that they will take advantage of the open paths that Obama has left in the Foreclosure and Bank deals to investigate, prosecute and legislate aggressively. The Gippies won't do it, but the Dems need to show the same dissatisfaction as the public feels re: banks and promise HUGE steps against the criminals who got us into this mess. Then they need to deliver to stay relevant in 2014.

    •  All True of 2010 Except Since Then the Repubs (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, Delilah, BusyinCA, Woody

      finally began to govern as some of us have been warning since the early 1970's they would.

      There should be some rebound of disaffected Dem voters out of immediate personal fear.

      But the other thing is, the global corporate air war against Democrats and Obama hasn't broken out yet. We could see a very low turnout Presidential which could be the final Republican sweep.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 10:53:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That is a terrifying prospect (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BusyinCA

        While I hate that Obama is now going the SuperPAC route, I also understand it. To not open that ATM for this election would be a disaster. As it is, they're probably too late to catch up with the hundreds of millions the Gippies will secure.

        Yeah this anti-labor surge proves your point that these pinheads have finally started taking it to the people on the state level. It may end up that Obama is literally the only thing standing in the way of a governing, united GOP/Bagger congress. All the more reason to build our firewall with the president.

  •  Depends on the nominee. (7+ / 0-)

    If Romney is the nominee, I'd take the Southern & Midwest path.

    If Santorum is the nominee, I'd take the Western & Midwest path.

    If Gingrich is the nominee, I assume complete victory and go to Arizona. I'd also add in Indiana and Missouri in a bid for the landslide.

    •  Your list made me think of something (0+ / 0-)

      The electoral map they sent is less relevant when you consider the following:

      1) who will be the Gippie nominee
      2) who will his running mate be

      If the nominee chooses someone who disrupts the Kerry map (i.e. a PA Gippie) then the math gets harder and exponentially more complex. As it is, the campaing literature in the mailing says that they have 40 paths to victory. I assume most of them assume certain strong VP nominees.

      •  The general consensus on VP picks (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FG, BusyinCA

        is that they either do nothing for you or hurt you. Only in very limited cases does it actually change an election, like 1960 for example.

        People just don't vote for Vice President. They vote for whoever is at the top of the ticket. This year, I doubt it will make much difference either. Mainly because nobody out there for the GOP is a bonafide heavyweight who'd actually accept an offer from one of these losers.

        However, a bad VP can hurt you as it did John McCain and Bush Sr.

      •  I think we put too much weight.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....on a VP selection. Sarah Palin may have wowed the far right, but it didn't get Republicans in general, or independents particularly excited about McCain's candidacy once the initial media glare had died down. Edwards couldn't deliver North Carolina to Kerry. Lloyd Bentsen, for all he demolished Little Danny Quayle, could not deliver Texas to Dukakis, despite being elected there in the Senate race. A VP is useful as an attack dog, but the days of people like LBJ delivering states are over. Whereas, VPs like Cheney and Biden served their purposes well. Neither of them delivered any electoral votes, but they were both effective attack dogs.

  •  Or bring back Dr. Howard Dean (7+ / 0-)

    and his 50 state strategy - we need focus on House and Senate seats in every state too!

    "George Washington: "The power under the Constitution will always be in the people.... and whenever it is executed contrary to their interest, or not agreeable to their wishes, their servants can, and undoubtedly will, be recalled." 1787

    by moose67 on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 11:08:20 AM PST

    •  Considering Dean is one of the prime creators (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BusyinCA, highacidity

      of our current strengths as a party and movement, yes, agreed. Always go for it all and only settle for 270.

    •  I'm optimistic we can take back the House (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, moose67

      and hold onto the Senate. There are some great people running for the House and Senate, right now Elizabeth Warren MA and Tammy Baldwin WI are two of my (many hopeful) picks for the Senate, and there are many worthy candidates for House seats already running.

      Plus we should see some positives when the WI recall is over, it would be an epic win to remove Walker and Kleefisch and some T-nut state reps there. I think that will help the general enthusiasm for team D.

      Plus, Team O is going to bring their A game, I have no doubt. It is early yet, but I expect enthusiasm will  ramp up once the Consumer Protection Bureau gets up to speed, mortgage reform is (somewhat) put into effect and unemployment numbers trend down. I predict that Obama will move to the left to pick up support from the base, since the R's have already pushed the independent vote into the D column.

      And yes, bring back Dr. Howard Dean. I owe my political involvement to him. I'd like to see more grass-roots Dean influence, and a bit less corporate  DNC.

      "I don't need a script to tell the truth" Ed Schultz, Feb. 4 2010

      by BusyinCA on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 03:30:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My Assessment- It won't be close (6+ / 0-)

    An improving economy (unemployment rate probably under 8% before election day) as well as a very weakened Romney will lead to a solid Obama win.  I think Obama holds all of his '08 states (except Indiana) and picks up Arizona.  Obama wins 363-175 (by 7% of the vote, similar to '08).  Democrats regain the House, picking up 29 seats, and hold on to the Senate (net loss of 2, losing Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana and Missouri, picking up Massachusetts and Nevada).

    Or, for the more unlikely scenario, Rick Santorum somehow wins the nomination (which could ironically become MORE likely as the economy continues to improve, as Republicans realize they won't win regardless and are more willing to go with an extreme choice).  In that case, Obama cleans up, winning 456 EVs (even Texas!) and winning by 12 points.  Democrats gain 37 House seats and break even in the Senate (losing Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana, but winning Massachusetts, Nevada and Arizona).

    Join National Youth Rights Assocation, http://www.youthrights.org and join the youth rights revolution

    by teenvote on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 11:15:40 AM PST

    •  It's odd Santorum is surging from the rear in (0+ / 0-)

      recent polls, given his condemning most forms of birth control, when you consider even Mississippi rejected the "personhood" amendment. I see zero chance of Santorum taking any general election states that Obama carried in 2008, even Indiana, and you'd think other states like Missouri and Arizona would go Democratic (really pro-birth control).

      Odd folk, the Republican primary electorate.

    •  I love your enthusiasm! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BusyinCA, Woody

      I'd love to believe you're right but, man, it's tough to see things going that well. Can you imagine the mandate that would give progressive ideas? Makes me shiver all goodly.

      My proclivity for election-guessing got balled in 2004. All you have to do is look at my diaries from 2004 and you'll see how, um, wrong I was. Once bitten, as the say... It was so devastating that it's only this cycle that I feel like I can rejoin the discussion. I found this Obama mailing rekindled that sense of anticipation, where I know it will be hard but I can clearly see a way to win and keep the good fight going.

      Lets hope Santorum sticks.

      •  One comparison is 1984 (0+ / 0-)

        In 1983, Reagan looked like he was toast. The Democrats had picked up a lot of House seats in the 1982 elections, the economy sucked, and even a dull candidate like Mondale was beating Reagan in the polls. In 1984, the economy improved, and even though unemployment was 7.4% by November, Reagan destroyed Mondale. If Obama runs a strong campaign against a weak opponent in an improving economy (all of which are possibilities), he wins in a rout.

    •  Recommended for optimism! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BusyinCA

      As long as we're making guesses, why not assume the best?

      "The Democrats are the lesser evil and that has to count for something. Good and evil aren't binary states. All of us are both good and evil. Being less evil is the trajectory of morality." --SC

      by tb92 on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 12:22:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  From your keyboard to God's ear. (And Diebold) (0+ / 0-)

      I'd be happy to crack a bottle of Asti with you when it happens.

      "I don't need a script to tell the truth" Ed Schultz, Feb. 4 2010

      by BusyinCA on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 03:33:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think Tester holds on.... (0+ / 0-)

      ....in Montana because he's a strong campaigner and it's entirely possible that Democrats will contest Montana if Obama is running strongly. Plus, I'm pretty sure that Schweitzer will campaign hard for Tester and Schweitzer's one of the most popular governors in the country.

  •  What about... (6+ / 0-)

    What about having a presence in all 50 states?  Obama would not have won North Carolina and Indiana had he not been there.  He may have to play defense in Wisconsin, where Scott Walker still has plenty of fans and his recall is far from a sure thing.  Maybe Indiana is hopeless for Obama in 2012, but Arizona and Georgia are not.  

    "Politics should be the part-time profession of every citizen who would protect the rights and privileges of free people and who would preserve what is good and fruitful in our national heritage." -- Lucille Ball

    by Yamaneko2 on Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 11:23:20 AM PST

  •  Notice Florida isn't in any of the paths... (0+ / 0-)

    I found that pretty interesting. Seems they're placing less emphasis on it - or just head-faking.

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