Speaker John Boehner is going to have a very interesting day. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
The House GOP leadership's
capitulation on the payroll tax cut, offering to pass a clean bill with no pay-fors, came as a big and unwelcomed surprise to the
rest of the congressional Republicans. Boehner and crew want to decouple the tax cut from the other issues in the negotiations—extending unemployment benefits for another year and avoiding a nearly 30 percent cut to Medicare provider reimbursements. They still want those provisions paid for, but will swallow the $100 billion increase to the deficit from the payroll tax cut to just make this damaging issue go away.
The announcement shocked rank-and-file members, who were back in their House districts. Senate Republicans were likewise caught off guard—even one GOP leader who was trying to negotiate a compromise had no idea it was coming. [...]
Added Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, a former House GOP leader: “I think the whole policy is a bad policy.” Another former House member, Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas, said: “The idea of not paying for it is kind of a new thing in our caucus. It really hadn’t been discussed.” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said GOP leaders were “trapped.”
There's obviously trouble in Boehner's paradise, the place he says
Republicans will rule for years. The caucus is meeting today, when the fate of Boehner gambit will be decided. The caucus will likely decide to go forward with it, since there are enough Republicans who recognize that standing in the way of a middle class tax cut while protecting millionaires from paying a fair share, in an election year, is not smart. But the rift in the caucus will only deepen.
As for the extension itself, the stand-alone legislation would likely pass, getting enough support from House Democrats. Then the process could get really interesting. The Senate could take the House bill and amend it on their side by including unemployment and the Medicare fix, and then send it back to the House, probably just before the scheduled week-long recess.