For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in Maine, and there's split control in New Hampshire. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
Not much to say, this is Doubling the House for New England. I tried to not split any towns or cities (or in the case of Massachusetts, any towns or cities except Boston), since New England is much more divided on the basis of town than counties. Without going over my maps with a fine-toothed comb, I think I succeeded, except for Connecticut (damn them...).
Links to the adopted plans in Connecticut, Massachusetts and Maine. New Hampshire has not yet begun their redistricting process, but so few changes need to be made that it's probably going to look very close to the current map. Rhode Island's map has only recently passed the state legislature and awaits the Governor's signature. The Connecticut plan is not yet final.
Since there are 5 states in this diary (Vermont, the 6th New England state, has already been covered), we'll go in alphabetical order.
Connecticut gets 10 districts
VAP: 51 White, 22.6 Black, 19.7 Hispanic
John Larson (D-East Hartford), the Minority Caucus Chair of the House, lives here. Hartford and surrounding. Already majority-minority by total population, this could potentially elect a minority sometime in the next decade, assuming Larson retires. Safe D
VAP: 84.2 W, 6.5 H
Joe Courtney (D-Vernon) lives here. Manachester, Mansfield, and Enfield. Safe D
VAP: 84.3 W, 5.9 H
Open. Norwich, New London, Marlborough. Safe D
VAP: 91.2 W
Open. Torrington, Bristol, Farmington. The least Democratic district in the state, Any Republicans that are currently running for CT-05 would jump ship here. Barely a D+1. Swing
VAP: 80 W, 5 B, 10.1 H
Open. Middletown and Hartford suburbs of Glastonbury and Wethersfield. Safe D
VAP: 65.7 W, 15.1 B, 13.7 H
Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven), who is a fucking hipster, lives here. New Haven and environs. Safe D
VAP: 81.8 W, 6.1 B, 7.9 H
Open; Chris Murphy (D-Cheshire) is running for Senate. Southington, Meriden, Naugatuck and North Haven. Both major Democrats who are running to replace Murphy, House Speaker Chris Donovan (Meriden) and former State Rep. Elizabeth Esty (Cheshire) live here. Likely D
VAP: 72.2 W, 7.1 B, 14.9 H
Open. Waterbury and Danbury. Lean D
VAP: 61.7 W, 15 B, 17.7 H
Open. Bridgeport and Milford. Safe D
VAP: 69.1 W, 8.2 B, 15.8 H, 5.8 Asian
Jim Himes (D-Greenwich) lives here. Stamford, Westport and Norwalk. Safe D
Connecticut goes from a 5-0 delegation to a 9-0-1 map.
Massachusetts gets 18 districts.
The Dem/Rep average for Massachusetts is the 2010 U.S. Senate special election and the 2010 gubernatorial election. Since the Republican won the former and the Democrat won the latter only with a plurality, the average is absurdly skewed on the red side. So for comparison, I also calculated the 2008 Presidential numbers by hand, but only for the districts where the average was unrepresentative (in my view). Obama's numbers can be construed as an overperformance, however. So if you take the numbers together you get a decent idea of how to judge these districts.
VAP: 38.9 W, 32.3 B, 15.9 H, 8.4 A
Stephen Lynch (D-Boston) lives here (I think); majority minority, plurality white. The majority of the city of Boston. Lynch probably moves to the 5th, 6th or 14th. Perfect district for State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz. Safe D
VAP: 70.6 W, 5.8 B, 7.3 H, 13.4 A
Open. Cambridge, Brookline and part of Boston. Safe D
VAP: 64.7 W, 6.8 B, 18.1 H, 7.2 A
53.4 Dem, 62.9 Obama
Ed Markey (D-Malden) lives here. Chelsea, Everett, Revere, Medford, Malden and Melrose, plus a few precincts of Boston. The Obama percentage does not include the part of Boston in the district. Safe D
VAP: 78.1 W, 6 B, 10 A
Mike Capuano (D-Somerville) lives here. Somerville, Watertown, Waltham and Newton. Capuano would probably rather run in the 2nd instead, there's not much crossover between this district and his current one. If Barney Frank's primary reason for retiring was redistricting like he said, he could run here, his home of Newton is a large part of the district. Safe D
VAP: 80 W, 6.2 B, 9.1 A
45.2 Dem, 54.4 Obama
Bill Keating (D-Quincy) lives here, although he is moving to his summer home in Bourne (12th) to run in the new MA-09. He could reverse his decision to move, but I doubt it, the 12th is much bluer. This would be a decent district for conservaDem Stephen Lynch
to run in. Safe D with Lynch
VAP: 87 W, 5.5 A
46.7 Dem, 57.9 Obama
Open. Natick and Norwood. Likely D
VAP: 78.5 W, 7.6 H, 9.4 A
41.4 Dem, 54.4 Obama
Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) lives here. Lowell, Tyngsborough and Menthuen. Tsongas has not been the strongest incumbent, so this could be shaky for a cycle or two. Lean D
VAP: 78.9 W, 16.8 H
46.1 Dem, 56.8 Obama
Open. Ipswich, Gloucester and Lawrence. Likely D
VAP: 81.5 W, 9.9 H
45.7 Dem, 57 Obama
John Tierney (D-Salem) lives here. Salem, Peabody and Lynn. Likely D
VAP: 85.9 W, 6.5 A
43.8 Dem, 56.9 Obama
Open. Woburn, Concord, Marlborough and Shrewsbury. Lean D
VAP: 77.5 W, 5.7 B, 10.9 H
45.7 Dem, 51.4 Obama
Jim McGovern (D-Wocester) lives here. Worcester and Leominster. Likely D with McGovern, due to incumbency and his control of the local machine, but McGovern may be a bit to the left of this district, and it would definitely be quite a fight should he retire.
VAP: 92.3 W
44.6 Dem, 62.3 Obama
Cape Cod. As I said earlier, Bill Keating, who is already moving to this district to run in MA-09, will run here. Safe D
VAP: 87.5 W, 5.3 H
53.1 Dem, 58.2 Obama
Open. Fall River, New Bedford, etc. Safe D
VAP: 81.2 W, 8.7 B
41 Dem, 50.9 Obama
Open. Taunton, Brockton and Pembroke. This is the district most likely to fall into Republican hands. But the presence of Brockton, which is almost 1/3 of the district, keeps it from being a sure thing. Swing
VAP: 85.2 W
41 Dem, 53.9 Obama
Open. Framingham, North Attleborough and Attleboro. Same Dem/Rep performance, but stronger Obama performance makes this Lean D
VAP: 91.2 W, 5 H
42.3 Dem, 55.9 Obama
Open. Sprawling district in the middle of the state, no major population centers. Lean D
VAP: 66.9 W, 20.6 H
51.8 Dem, 57.1 Obama
Richard Neal (D-Springfield) lives here. Springfield and surrounding. Safe D
VAP: 90 W
Open. Western Mass. Solidly blue. Former state Senator Andrea Nuciforo, who is currently running against Rep. Neal in the MA-01 primary, lives here, in Pittsfield. He'd appreciate being handed a seat. Safe D
Massachusetts goes from a 10-0 delegation, to a 9-0 map after losing a district, to a 17-0-1 under Doubling.
Maine gets 4 districts.
VAP: 93.9 W
Open. Portland. Safe D
VAP: 95.8 W
Open. Lewiston, Biddeford. Safe D
VAP: 96.8 W
Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven) lives here. Waterville, Rockland, Rumford and the capital of Augusta. Safe D
VAP: 95.7 W
Mike Michaud (D-East Millinocket) lives here. The least blue district in the state, it ironically could make Michaud more safe, since he's anti-choice. State Senate President Kevin Raye (R-Perry) also lives in this district though, and could be more emboldened to challenge him to a rematch of 2002. Raye is pro-choice. Lean D
Maine goes from 2-0 to 4-0.
New Hampshire gets 4 districts.
VAP: 95 W
More than likely open; Frank Guinta (R-Manchester) could live here, there is one ward of Manchester in this district. Hampton, Goffstown, Merrimack. This is a Republican vote sink; basically taking in every one of the Massachusetts ex-pats, the Manchester and Concord suburbs, etc. For the northeast, a 46% Obama district is Safe R. Guinta probably jumps ship from the 2nd, provided he doesn't already live here.
VAP: 88.8 W
Charlie Bass (R-Peterborough) and Guinta (possibly) live here. Manchester, Nashua and Keene. As I said, Guinta runs in the 1st. This actually loses a point of Obama performance from the current NH-02 for Bass, so he might actually like this district. But he'd be susceptible to the wild wings of the New Hampshire electorate, as always. Swing
VAP: 95.2 W
Open. Concord, Claremont, Lebanon, and Berlin. Ann McLane Kuster, who held Charlie Bass to a 1-point margin in 2010, lives in Hopkinton. She would run here and romp, in the safest Dem district in the state. Safe D
VAP: 95.2 W
Open. Rochester, Portsmouth, Dover and Laconia. Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter lives in Rochester, and she'd run here, but her aversion to fundraising would be a burden in non-presidential years. If she can't hack it, maybe House Minority Leader Terri Norielli would try to move up. Lean D
New Hampshire goes from a 0-2 delegation to a 2-1-1 map.
Rhode Island gets 3 districts. This is the only state in this diary that does not have political data.
VAP: 65.2 W, 7.7 B, 19.4 H
David Cicilline (D-Providence) lives here. Providence, Cranston and North Sciutate. Safe D, Cicilline is no longer vulnerable in a general election, but probably moreso in a primary.
VAP: 92.3 W
Jim Langevin (D-East Greenwich) lives here. Warwick, Bristol, Newport and Block Island. Safe D for Langevin, could be shaky when he retires though.
VAP: 81.5 W, 8.9 H
Open. Blue East Providence and blue and bluening-even-more Pawtucket combined with the reddest parts of the outstate. Lean D
Rhode Island goes from 2-0 to 3-0
Even though Vermont has already been covered in a separate diary, just for completism's sake I thought I'd post this.
Both districts are 93+ VAP white, and 65+% Obama. Peter Welch lives in the 2nd, in Hartland. Both are Safe D, with the 1st being open for an Independent/Progressive, à la Bernie Sanders.
Excluding Vermont, these 5 states together are 35-1-3, bringing the House as a whole so far to 194-145-35