For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.
Maryland was one of few states this redistricting cycle that was favorable to Democrats. Governor O'Malley and Annapolis decided to go after Republican Roscoe Bartlett (as opposed to freshman Andy Harris), ultimately moving the map from a 6-1-1 to a 7-1. In West Virginia, there was some trepidation, as Senate Majority leader John Unger attempted to go after Republicans John McKinley and Shelley Moore Capito by going against the tradition of keeping counties whole in redistricting. Tradition ultimately prevailed. And DC, of course, currently only sends one non-voting delegate to Congress, but I believe current law would still give it two representatives, since it's guaranteed no less than the smallest state.
The Old Line State gets 16 districts.
The Dem Average consists of "All 2006-2008 statewide races"
VAP: 41.8 White, 50.4 Black
72.8 Obama, 73.6 Dem
Open; majority black. Based in Prince George's County, it reaches into the Eastern Shore to both dilute the black population (in order to make more majority districts) and the red bastion of the eastern shore. A cinch for a black Democrat. Safe D, black pickup
VAP: 67.1 W, 25.3 B
52.7 Obama, 55.4 Dem
Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville) the Minority Whip, lives here. The Southern Tier, basically. Charles and St. Mary's Counties, plus Somerset and Worcester Counties on the Eastern Shore. Hoyer would not like this district, losing 13 points of saftey. Being in the leadership, he could probably win easily no matter what, but depending on the way the district is trending, Hoyer may want to move north to the 3rd, where he already represents the lion's share. Safe D with Hoyer, Lean D if open
VAP: 66.9 W, 23.1 B, 5.9 Hispanic
52.7 Obama, 54.5 Dem
Open. The Eastern Shore (including the sole blue city of Salisbury), Annapolis, and into Prince George's County. The capital city of Annapolis is almost always carved up and shoved in with Baltimore, diluting or eliminating its influence. Now, there's a chance for an Annapolis-based Dem to get through the primary. Side note; former Rep. Frank Kratovil lives here, in Stevensville, and could decide to run. Lean D, Likely D with Kratovil
VAP: 67.2 W, 20 B, 5.6 H, 5.3 Asian
51.3 Obama, 52.8 Dem
Open. Anne Arundel County and reaching into Prince George's, Howard and MoCo. Theoretically competitive, but Democrats hold most of the local offices. Lean D
VAP: 73.6 W, 8 B, 6.6 H, 10 A
64.6 Obama, 65.9 Dem
Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington), the Ranking Member of the Budget Committee, lives here. MoCo and up towards the panhandle. Not as good as his current district, but better than his district under the new map. Safe D
VAP: 73.1 W, 9.4 B, 7.2 H, 8.5 A
54.9 Obama, 53.9 Dem
Roscoe Bartlett (R-Buckeysville) lives here. Frederick, Montgomery and Howard Counties. Bartlett may want to chance it here, it's slightly better than the district he's go this time around. But if he wants an almost sure thing (barring a primary), he'll move north to the 15th. Lean D with Bartlett, Likely D if open.
VAP: 90.5 W, 5.2 B
35.7 Obama, 36.5 Dem
Open. The Panhandle, centered in Cumberland and Hagerstown. Like I said, Bartlett may want to move here. Only action would be in the Republican primary. Safe R
VAP: 90.3 W
35.5 Obama, 38.1 Dem
Open. The rest of the northern tier and Eastern Shore. Andy Harris, whose home is just barely in the 14th, moves here. Safe R
VAP: 18 W, 54.3 B, 20 H
92.1 Obama, 91.1 Dem
Donna Edwards (D-Fort Washington), lives here; black majority. College Park, Suitland and Fort Washington in Prince George's County, and Silver Spring in MoCo. Donna Edwards, the whiner, gets the blackest and the safest district in the state for either party, though she still gets mostly cut off from MoCo, which was her chief whine in the redistricting kerfuffle. Safe D, black hold
VAP: 22.7 W, 50.5 B, 17.3 H, 7.4 A
85.3 Obama, 84.6 Dem
Open; black majority. Prince George's and Montgomery Counties. Safe D, black pickup
VAP: 64.4 W, 20.5 B, 6.2 H, 6.7 A
60.2 Obama, 63.4 Dem
Open. Southern Baltimore City and parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. Maryland's districts are so fucked up. This contains much of Dutch Ruppersberger's territory, but his home is way north in the 14th. Ruppersberger probably decides to run here. Safe D
VAP: 37.7 W, 50.6 B, 7 A
74.5 Obama, 72.5 Dem
Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore) lives here; black majority. Slice of Baltimore, and parts of Baltimore and Howard Counties. Safe D, black hold
VAP: 40.7 W, 50 B
80.7 Obama, 80.9 Dem
John Sarbanes (D-Towson) lives here; black majority. Slice of Baltimore and northern suburbs. Just because his home is here doesn't mean he's connected to his base, in the fucked up nature of Maryland redistricting. Sarbanes probably moves to the neighboring 10th to avoid a primary with a black pol, even though his famous last name could carry him. Safe D, black pickup if open
VAP: 45.4 W, 44.8 B, 5 H
70.3 Obama, 72.8 Dem
Open; plurality white. Baltimore and part of Baltimore County. As I said, Sarbanes might prefer to run here, the bump in white percentage, as well the family name would insulate him (for a time) from ambitious black politicians. It also includes more of his current territory. Safe D, black opportunity if open
VAP: 39.7 W, 17.9 B, 21.4 H, 18.5 A
72.1 Obama, 72.8 Dem
Open; racial clusterfuck, plurality white. MoCo. Depending on how the primary goes, any of these ethnic groups could win this district easily. Safe D, minority opportunity
VAP: 77.3 W, 13.1 B
46.1 Obama, 52.9 Obama
Dutch Ruppersberger (D) and Andy Harris (R), both of Cockeysville, live here. However, like I said, Dutch runs in the 7th and Harris runs in the 16th. So this will likely be open. The Obama %age doesn't look good, but it's 6 points better than the district Frank Kratovil held for two years, so in a good Dem year the right candidate could win this and with the right campaigning, hold it. With the domination the MD Dems have over the state machine, I could call this Lean D, but I'll call it Swing
Maryland goes from a 6-2 delegation and a 7-1 map to a 13-2-1 map. This is all assuming Ruppersberger moves south to the 7th, Sarbanes moves east to the 10th, and Roscoe Bartlett and Andy Harris move north to the 15th and 16th, respectively. Three new black representatives join Edwards and Cummings for sure, as well as a new minority opportunity district in the 11th.
The Mountain State gets 5 districts.
No political data, sorry.
VAP: 92.7 W
Open. Former Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-Fairmont) lives here. Fairmont and the Eastern Panhandle. It's difficult to handicap these races without political data, and Obama's performance wouldn't help much either. Given the absolute dominance Democrats have over the state, I'll call this Likely D
VAP: 94.8 W
David McKinley (R-Wheeling) lives here. The Northern Panhandle and North-Central WV. Former State Sen. Mike Oliviero (D-Morgantown), who defeated Alan Mollohan in the primary for WV-01 in 2010, also lives here. West Virginians are getting more used to voting for Republicans, but I think in a year not named 2010 McKinley may have a race on his hands. Plus, McKinley is cut off from the sole Republican bastion in the state of Wood County (Parkersburg). Swing
VAP: 93.1 W
Nick Rahall (D-Beckley), Ranking Member of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, lives here. Southern West Virginia (the "coal counties" and the Potomac Highlands. Having an incumbent Democrat here, even with some new territory, is basically a slam-dunk in this one-party state. Safe D
VAP: 93.2 W
Shelley Moore Capito (R-Charleston) lives here. The Charleston Metro Area. Capito was basically first elected based on the strength of her family name (Her father was Governor from '69-'77 and '85-'89), but has been reelected easily since. Would be in play if she ever retired to run for higher office, as she is constantly name-dropped for, but until then this is Safe R
VAP: 95.9 W
Open. A new district, this is the Allegheny Plateau and part of the Coal Counties, city of Parkersburg. Again, given the strength of the WV Democratic party in the state, any open district is probably Likely D
West Virginia currently has a 1-2 delegation, it goes to 3-1-1.
District of Columbia
DC Voting Rights is a sticky issue. I personally think residents should be able to organize into their own state. That would require a constitutional amendment, amending Article I, Section 8, Clause 17. Under Doubling, I think DC should at the very least get two non-voting delegates to the House, no less than the least populous state.
VAP: 34 W, 50.4 B, 10.2 H
Majority black. I am not sure which district Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) lives in, but she would run for re-election in this one. Safe D, black hold
VAP: 42.5 W, 43.6 B, 6.9 H
Open, plurality black. This is the district that includes all of the seats of power of the U.S. Government; the Capitol and the White House. African Americans would dominate the primary electorate, and most likely elect another black Delegate. Safe D, black pickup
DC's non-voting delegation goes from 1-0 to 2-0, both African-American.
These two states together are 16-3-2, bringing the House so far as a whole to 210-148-37