Senate 2012 Baseline Ratings:
So here we are, about eight and a half months before the 2012 elections. We’ve got a political eternity ahead of us, but it’s a great time to establish baseline ratings for the presidential, senate, and house races before most of the heavy cat fud and mudslinging gets brought out into the open. I’m starting with the Senate because the House map hasn’t been finalized yet.
2010 was the second time I did Senate race prognostications, and the first time in a public forum. It was a fairly strong night for me, but not a perfect one, as I correctly hit the 53-47 Democratic/Republican split of seats, but misfired on Pennsylvania and Nevada. (Note to self: never trust the pollsters in Nevada, they understate democratic performance by a huge margin)
For my ratings I utilize the same rating system as Charlie Cook, Safe, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up. I’ll start the overview in the Northeast and move westward.
The map:
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Maine – This race is fairly sleepy. Republican Olympia Snowe is popular and would almost certainly not lose in the general election. Really her only chance of going down is in the primary, where Ian Dodge and Scott D’Ambiose are gunning for her. Really they don’t have much of a chance on paper, but then again, neither did Christine Odonnell. The democratic candidates according to Race Tracker Wiki are John Hinck and Matt Dunlap, two dudes that I don’t know anything about. I’m going to peg this one at Likely R pending the outcome of the Republican primary.
Rating – Likely R
Vermont – Bernie Sanders is unassailable. Next.
Rating – Safe D
Massachusetts – Now this is our first marquee race of the cycle. Republican Scott Brown came out of nowhere like wildfire in 2010, defeating Martha Coakley in a special election to take one of the Bay State’s Senate seats. He is up against renowed activist and creator of the Consumer Financial Protection Board, Elizabeth Warren. Brown was ahead in polls early on but even though he has great favorables, he is trailing Warren by low single digits in almost all polling of recent. This should be an expensive and hard fought contest, but the map to 50%+1 for Brown is daunting. He has to win in a very democratic state, in a race in which he’ll need about 1 of every 5 Obama voters to cross over and support him. I think his odds of that are small. If Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination it would help him marginally, but it’s definitely Warren’s race to lose.
Rating – Lean D
Rhode Island – Sheldon Whitehouse had a rough contest against now-Independent governor Lincoln Chafee in 2006, winning 51-49, but this time should be a much easier road. His only opposition is republican Barry Hinckley, who is running for office from the first time. With Obama sure to romp here, I don’t think Whitehouse has anything to worry about.
Rating – Safe D
Connecticut – Joe Lieberman is retiring this cycle, so the democrats effectively have an open seat to defend here, but they have two strong candidates going at it in the primary, 5th CD representative Chris Murphy and former SoS Susan Bysiewicz. Polls generally show Murphy with a small lead and a fundraising advantage, but both poll favorably against the republican frontrunner, WWE CEO Linda McMahon. Former 4th CD representative Christopher Shays is running against McMahon in the Republican primary, but with his moderate to liberal positions and against McMahon’s millions, I doubt he survives the primary. If he does, this race might be a closer one to look at, but for now I call this one safe for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe D
New York – Kirsten Gillibrand is up for re-election again, this time for a full six year term. In a deep blue state like New York and up against token opposition, she’s safe for re-election.
Rating – Safe D
New Jersey – Bob Menendez isn’t a very popular senator, and was in danger for much of the 2006 cycle before the national democratic wave took over and carried him well across the line. His 2006 opponent Tom Kean, is listed as not confirmed, but I haven’t heard anything about him running. Of the confirmed opposition, state senator Joe Kyrillos is the most well known and probably the favorite. This is an uphill climb for any republican, but with Menendez’s unpopularity, its not completely out of reach.
Rating – Likely D
Pennsylvania – The Keystone State has shown really awful ratings for Obama for much of his first term, and the state swung very, very hard toward Team Red in 2010. Things seem to be settling a bit toward normal though, and senator Robert Casey has always been fairly well liked since his initial election in 2006. The republican opposition hasn’t really been strong either, many republican congresscritters looked to get in early on but never did. The nomination is probably between Steven Welch and Sam Rohrer, either of whom would have a very uphill climb against the popular Casey in a state Obama will most likely win.
Rating – Likely D
Maryland – Ben Cardin has never been the strongest senator from an electoral standpoint, but he has little to no chance of losing this cycle.
Rating – Safe D
West Virginia – Joe Manchin had to sweat out a tough cycle in 2010, in which businessman David Raese gave him a scare. His popularity is still pretty strong, and his status as a conservadem plays well in WV, which is red at the federal level these days. Race Tracker doesn’t list any confirmed candidates but I remember Raese indicating at one point he was in. Really, the one republican truly capable of winning, Shelly Capito, is out, so the discussion is largely irrelevant. Manchin will have to get conservative democratic support that Obama won’t get, but he did that in a bad democratic year in 2010, so I have little doubt he will this time too.
Rating – Likely D
Virginia – Here is our second marquee race of the cycle. Former Senator George Allen wants his old seat back, and he brings a lot of experience and name recognition to the table. The democrats needed to nab a top tier recruit here and they did, as former governor and former DNC chair Tim Kaine took the helm. Most all polls of this race so far show a very close contest. With Virginia sure to be hotly contested in the presidential race as well, I think this could be one of the race that decides who controls the Senate after election night. Definitely a toss up.
Rating – Toss Up
Florida – We hit another top tier confrontation in the Sunshine State. Senator Bill Nelson got a free pass when the GOP nominated Katherine Harris. It looked for a while that he would get lucky again as Adam Haridopolis and Adam Hasner out-lol’ed each other on the campaign trail. Luckily for Team Red, congressman Connie Mack jumped into the contest several months ago, transforming a laugher into a fairly close contest. Most polls show either a tie or a small Nelson lead. Florida is sure to be hotly contested in the general election both here and in the presidential race, so I’m calling this one a toss up as well.
Rating – Toss Up
Mississippi – Roger Wicker, much like Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, is running for a full term this election after getting a partial term last time around. Then, in 2008 he defeated Ronnie Musgrove by roughly 10% in a bad republican year. There isn’t any confirmed democratic opposition to Wicker, and I doubt they would challenge much anyway.
Rating – Safe R
Tennessee – This could end up being somewhat of a sleeper race, that is if anybody decides to get in. Bob Corker came very close to losing in 2006 against Harold Ford, granted that was a strong democratic year. The hope for team Blue was that former governor Phil Bredesen would get into the contest, which would turn this into an immediate toss up, but that isn’t likely. For now, this one stays solidly red.
Rating – Safe R
Ohio – Sherrod Brown has generally been quite popular in Ohio, which is impressive given that he is one of the most liberal senators in the country. In a state that is sure to be a battleground in the upcoming election cycle, he comes in holding some high ground, but not a great lead. The likely republican candidate is state Treasurer Josh Mandel, although he has to get by state senator Kevin Coughlin first. Mandel is very inexperienced and the GOP base seems to be ambivalent toward him. Still, in this very divided state, its hard not to see this one be at least somewhat close.
Rating – Lean D
Michigan – I had this one pegged to be somewhat of a close race last week, due to several factors such as Debbie Stabenow’s lukewarm popularity and Mitt Romney’s close ties to the state. But with Mitt faltering in the polls and Stabenow’s opponent, former 2nd CD representative Peter Hoekstra committing a major unforced error with his racist super bowl ad, this race isn’t looking as favorable for Team Red as it once did. As much as republican strategists hate to admit it, Michigan is part of the democratic base, and the GOP can’t afford to make errors here. Stabenow will win this one unless she blunders.
Rating – Likely D
Indiana – This could end up being the x-factor race of the cycle. Indiana shockingly went blue in 2008 with Obama winning and 5 house seats going blue, but it went solidly red two years later. In the case of this year, popular longterm senator Richard Lugar is up for re-election. If he makes it through the primary he should be a lock to win in November. However, he’ll have to get past hyperconservative state Treasurer Richard Murdock in the primary. That race looks like it could be a close one. 2nd CD representative Joe Donnelly is the democratic candidate. In the event that Murdock takes out Lugar he’d be no worse than a coin flip to win in November. Right now I’m pegging this at likely republican, but it’ll move based on what happens in the primary.
Rating – Likely R
Wisconsin – This state has been rather enigmatic politically, turning from a swing state in 2000 and 2004, into a solid blue state in 2006 and 2008, and then going hard red in 2010. With senator Herb Kohl retiring this year this seat is open. The republican primary has been heated to this point, and is between former GOP party chair Mark Neumann and former governor Tommy Thompson. Neumann is the more conservative of the two while Thompson is the moderate. No matter who makes it out to the general, they’ll go up against 2nd CD representative Tammy Baldwin, who is the democratic candidate. Baldwin is both extremely liberal and a lesbian, which is a questionable profile for a swingish Midwestern state. This could end up being closer than the presidential contest here, which is why I’m putting it into toss up for now. I have not seen any polling here yet, once I do I might re-evaluate this.
Rating – Toss Up
Minnesota – Amy Klobuchar is an extremely popular senator, and most polls here show her way ahead of all republican challengers. Safe.
Rating – Safe D
Missouri – Claire McCaskill won one of the closest Senate contests in 2006, defeating Jim Talent by a 3% margin in a good democratic year. Despite some complaints from the left wing of the Democratic Party, she’s actually been a pretty solid vote on just about all the important issues. But that has put her into a precarious spot in a state that has moved rightward in recent years. Her approvals are mediocre also. The republican nomination is an intense affair between 2nd CD representative Todd Akin and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Whoever emerges from that has a good chance at taking out McCaskill in what is almost certain to be a close state in 2012 in both this race and the presidential contest. McCaskill will probably run ahead of Obama, and will likely need to in order to win.
Rating – Toss Up
Texas – Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring this cycle, setting up a free for all GOP primary to see who will advance to November. Lieutenant governor David Dewhurst is the polling leader at the moment, but former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert and former solicitor general Ted Cruz are also in the race. The democratic candidate is retired US general Ricardo Sanchez, who puts an interesting profile into the race for Team Blue. Still, in such a conservative state, he’ll face an uphill climb against whoever the GOP nominee turns out to be, most likely Dewhurst.
Rating – Likely R
Nebraska – Ben Nelson’s retirement has really put Team Blue into a bad situation here. The GOP was already gunning hard for this seat, and state AG Jon Bruning is the favorite to win the primary, which has quite a few names in it, including state treasurer Don Stenberg. Worse yet, the democrats don’t even have a candidate according to Race Tracker. It looks rather like this could be the 1st seat to change hands on election night in November.
Rating – Safe R
North Dakota – Often infuriating senator Kent Conrad is retiring this year, making him the 2nd straight Dem senator from ND to do so. Last time around the GOP had a silver bullet in popular governor John Hoeven. This time around, their candidate is congresscritter Rick Berg. For the democrats, former state AG Heidi Heitkamp is the standard bearer. This state leans republican at the national level, but has been known to elect democrats locally. This could end up being a battle of national vs local, and possibly, anti-Washington vs Washington, as Berg might have to run away from his record in a very unpopular GOP House. This one could be interesting.
Rating – Toss Up
New Mexico – This has the makings of a pretty good fight, but one on a slanted playing field. Jeff Bingaman is retiring this year, and both party candidates hail from the same turf. Former 1st CD representative Heather Wilson is the likely candidate for the republicans, she brings a fairly moderate profile into the race. Her opponent is current 1st CD representative Martin Heinrich, who is facing a challenge from State auditor Hector Balderas but is heavily favored to emerge. In a blue state like New Mexico, I give Heinrich the early advantage. Wilson isn’t facing an impossible task, but she’s in a similar spot to Scott Brown, needing a lot of Obama voters to split their tickets.
Rating – Lean D
Wyoming – Really the only chance the Democrats had here was if former governor Dave Fruedenthal had jumped in. He didn’t, and he would’ve faced an uphill climb anyhow.
Rating – Safe R
Montana – This looks to be another tough fight, one of the true toss ups. John Tester has already gone through one such race, defeating Conrad Burns by 1% in 2006. This time around his opponent is 1st CD representative Dennis Rehberg, who himself is relatively popular but does have the stigma of an unpopular GOP house around his neck. Its insider vs insider in a pinkish-red state, but Tester has the incumbency advantage. This one will likely be close all the way.
Rating – Toss Up
Utah – The democrats could’ve had a shot here if 2nd CD representative Jim Matheson had jumped in, but he did not. Without him, now its just a matter of whether Orrin Hatch will get axed at the state GOP convention or not. Either way this seat will stay red.
Rating – Safe R
Arizona – If there’s any state where crazy has taken over, it is Arizona. What I really can’t figure out is if the state has really trended rightward or if the McCain home state effect and the 2010 wave just makes it look that way. At any rate, this seat is open with John Kyl’s departure. The GOP landed an establishment candidate in 6th CD representative Jeff Flake. The democrats lost their top candidate when 8th CD representative Gabrielle Giffords was shot in the head and eventually forced to resign. Her presence in the race would’ve made it a tossup, but they got a decent number 2 option in former surgeon general Richard Carmona. This is a tough race for the democrats, but like other republican congresscritters, I think the unpopular House GOP will hurt Flake to some degree here.
Rating – Lean R
Nevada – We have another marquee race shaping up in the Silver State. This race is a battle of congresscritters, as 2nd CD representative Dean Heller, who has been serving as interim senator after John Ensign’s resignment, is the republican nominee. 1st CD representative Shelley Berkley is the democratic nominee. Nevada has a reputation as a swing state but it is turning leftward, and pollsters always seem to underrate democratic performance. That being said, I feel that Heller is personally more popular than Berkley, and could make this a razor-close contest. It starts as a toss up.
Rating – Toss Up
Washington – This is a state that the republicans always say they can contest, but they never do. Maria Cantwell has never been the most popular of senators, but she’s not really endangered in any way. The republican opposition thus far has been token, and it would take a real meltdown for Cantwell to lose.
Rating – Likely D
California – Dianne Fienstein is an institution in California. Though she’s always had her detractors, she never seems to be in any kind of legitimate danger electorally. The republicans haven’t exactly been rushing to the trough for the right to face her either. In such a blue state, unless it is a year like 2010, I don’t see how this becomes competitive.
Rating – Safe D
Hawaii – Our final contest takes us to the Pacific, where Daniel Akaka is retiring. The republicans had one candidate that had a shot to win, and she got into the race, that being former governor Linda Lingle. 2nd CD representative Mazie Hirono is the likely democratic candidate…she has to get through Ed Case first but she is heavily favored to beat him in the primary. Lingle will probably try to turn this into a Washington vs non-Washington referendum, but in such a blue state with an Obama home-state effect on top of it, I don’t think it will matter.
Rating – Likely D
So at present, I count two pickups in total, one for each side, the Republicans gaining Nebraska, the Democrats gaining Massachusetts. There are 7 states in the toss up column, 6 of which are held by the democrats compared with just 1 for the republicans. If the two parties split those seats 3/4 or 4/3, that means we’ll have either 50/50 breakdown in the Senate or 51/49 for the democrats. Any moves in either direction away from that will depend on the trajectory of the individual races, but more importantly, the national environment in terms of the presidential race and the generic congressional ballot. One of my biggest flaws in 2010 is that I paid too much attention to localization and not enough on the national macro-environment, especially in the House where I underestimated the republican wave. I won’t make that same mistake twice.
So next month there will be another update, and then every month thereafter until the party conventions in September, then it’ll get updated once a week until the elections. For now, my baseline presidential ratings will come out next, and once the House map is finally finished, I’ll get started on those ratings as well.