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8:00 AM PT: Special Elections: We've got one special on Tuesday night, in the super-sized New Hampshire state House. Here's Johnny:

New Hampshire House, Hillsborough-10: An open Dem seat in Manchester's Ward 3, the candidates are former State Rep. and former Alderman Peter Sullivan for the Democrats, and '10 nominee Muni Savyon for the Republicans (he came in sixth place out of six candidates). This one should be an easy Dem hold; Ward 3 elected a 3 Dem delegation in '06, '08, and '10, and went 65-33 for Obama in 2008 and 59-39 Lynch in 2010.

8:16 AM PT: CA-26: Assemblywoman Julia Brownley to the rescue! After Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett left Democrats in the lurch by unexpectedly dropping out of the race (for no discernably good reason) a week ago, Brownley's name was mentioned as a possible replacement—something we badly needed in this swingish but very winnable district that's key to Democratic chances of retaking the House. Fortunately, Brownley didn't waste much time and has now entered the contest, complete with endorsements from many well-known local elected officials, including Bennett.

Brownley has a reputation as a strong fundraiser, though while she probably vaults instantly to frontrunner status, she doesn't have the Democratic primary field to herself. Indeed, one of the less-prominent hopefuls, businessman David Cruz Thayne, is already attacking Brownley as a carpetbagger and too liberal for the district. (The carpetbagger charge is pretty ridic, though, since Brownley already represents much of Ventura County, which is the anchor of this congressional seat, in the Assembly.)

Incidentally, after Bennett bailed but before Brownley got in, some activists tried once again to push Rep. Brad Sherman to seek re-election in the 26th. But Sherman said no, and that he plans to continue his run in the 30th, where he faces fellow Rep. Howard Berman in the Democratic primary.

8:43 AM PT: MN Redistricting: After a long, long wait—the legislature and governor deadlocked on redistricting in May of last year—the Minnesota Supreme Court will finally unveil new congressional and legislative maps for the state on Tuesday. We'll post `em here just as soon as we see `em.

9:01 AM PT: OH Redistricting: Here's another big redistricting fail on the part of Ohio Democrats: Because they waited over three months after new legislative maps were approved to file a lawsuit challenging them, and because this year's election season is already well underway, the state supreme court just ruled that any decision it makes about the new lines won't apply until 2014. There's no telling as yet if the Dems' actual claims have merit (as per usual, they're saying too many communities have been split), but if they do and the court orders the maps to be redrawn, we'll still miss a huge opportunity to run under revised lines this fall, when, thanks to Barack Obama, our turnout will likely be the best it ever will be. Sigh.

In more positive news, though, a new group called Voters First Ohio is trying to get a measure on the ballot this November that would establish an independent redistricting commission for the state. What's more, if successful, we wouldn't have to wait a decade for the law to take effect: new lines would have to be drawn right away, for the 2014 cycle. However, don't get your hopes up just yet: A referendum in 2005 to create a redistricting commission got destroyed, 70-30. However, it was part of a package of four separate measures, collectively known as "Reform Ohio Now," which all went down to defeat—and what's more, the redistricting proposal was kind of weird, since it required the panel to pick plans based purely on how they performed under a very particular mathematical formula. (Good luck trying to describe that sort of thing to voters.) So hopefully this time around, the idea will be marketed better.

9:17 AM PT: WI-Gov: I've grown pretty weary of trying to read the Tom Barrett tea leaves: Will Milwaukee's Democratic mayor, who ran for governor in 2010, enter the gubernatorial recall race or won't he? But this is actually the most interesting development in some time, because it comes straight from the horse's mouth: In an interview over the weekend, Barrett said he was "seriously considering" the contest and added that "I think that this governor has done so much damage to this state, I want him to be gone from this job." To me, that sounds like someone who wants to give it another go.

Already running are former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk of Madison and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, though I wonder if either would drop out if Barrett got in. I suspect Falk wouldn't, because labor is a big fan of hers and at least some unions don't have very warm feelings toward Barrett. Vinehout, though, does not have much of a profile, so I suspect what must already be a difficult fundraising situation would only get harder with a Barrett entry.

9:23 AM PT: AZ-Sen: Pretty snooze-a-riffic Republican Senate primary numbers from PPP:

Jeff Flake's at 56% to 7% for Wil Cardon, 5% for Bryan Hackbarth, 1% each for Douglas McKee and Clair Van Steenwyk, and 0% for John Lyon.
In November, it was 53-7 Flake, so unless Cardon plows a few mil of his own money into this race and starts carpetbombing Flake, this is going to remain a pretty boring affair.

9:59 AM PT: CT-05: In Connecticut, Democratic town committees play an important role in the nominating process because their members constitute delegates to the district-level conventions, where they vote on which candidates (if any) to endorse. Connecticut's conventions aren't strictly binding, like in Utah, but if you win your party's endorsement (with 50%+1 of the delegate vote), you get the top ballot line in the primary—and if you fail to get 15%, you need to petition your way on to the primary ballot. So the conventions can be a good barometer of establishment support, and a poor showing can induce an office-seeker to make an early exit from the race, since there isn't a whole lot of time to gather petitions afterward.

I mention all this as background because State House Speaker Chris Donovan just secured the unanimous endorsement of the New Britain DTC, the second-largest in the 5th Congressional District, which is good for about 10% of the total delegates at the convention. In addition to New Britain, Donovan has four other DTCs already in his corner, and a rough whip count shows him with the delegate lead among Democratic candidates so far and, it appears, an automatic spot on the ballot. One thing which hasn't really come up in the campaign yet, though, is whether the various players will forge on to the primary if they fail to make the 15% convention threshold, though I suspect we'll be hearing more about that soon, since the convention is May 14.

10:21 AM PT: NC-12: About a week and a half after suggesting he might not seek re-election this fall, veteran Dem Rep. Mel Watt has made up his mind and will indeed appear on the ballot for an 11th term.

10:26 AM PT: NC-11: Physician Dan Eichenbaum is dropping out of the crowded GOP primary in the open 11th District (the seat Dem Rep. Heath Shuler is giving up), citing difficulties in fundraising and a lack of ideological differences between himself and the other candidates.

11:17 AM PT: HI-02: A Ward Research poll for a couple of local media organizations (Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser) shows a big lead for former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann in the Democratic primary for this open House seat, 65-20 over Honolulu city councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard. That's similar to the 57-14 edge Hannemann had over Gabbard in his own poll from a couple of weeks ago. The Ward survey, though, apparently didn't include two other candidates, Esther Kiaaina and Bob Marx (or they were left out of the article), and the poll is also oddly described as being "statewide." So either it included a whole lot of people who won't even get to vote in this race, or we're looking at a partial sample from that Ward Senate poll we wrote about last week (or the writeup is sloppy).

12:00 PM PT: VA-Sen: A new poll from Christopher Newport University has Republican ex-Sen. George Allen leaning Democratic ex-Gov. Tim Kaine 42-40 in Virginia's open-seat Senate race. CNU had those numbers reversed back in October. Eagle-eyed commenter rdw72777 points out that the poll was actually conducted by a different academic institution, Muhlenberg College, but that it was "designed and analyzed" by CNU and the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

12:59 PM PT: AZ-04: Circling back around to the Paul Babeu story, it actually seems like there haven't been a whole lot of developments since the news first exploded over the weekend. As you know, Babeu is a deeply conservative, anti-immigration sheriff running for Congress in Arizona, and as we've all learned, one of Babeu's former lovers, a Mexican man named Jose, told the Phoenix New Times that Babeu threatened him with deportation if he failed to keep their relationship secret. Babeu immediately denied the allegations, though to distract from the real issue—his alleged abuse of power—he announced that he is gay.

I have to wonder if this smokescreen has worked, at least to some extent. In a remarkable piece at the Hotline headlined "Babeu is Gay and Fiercely Conservative," Fawn Johnson managed to write ten paragraphs about Babeu's sexuality and ideology without once mentioning Jose's claims. (In a similar vein, Politico's initial writeup didn't even say that Babeu is a Republican!)

But will this even work? Interestingly, Babeu's two primary opponents, Rep. Paul Gosar and state Sen. Ron Gould are taking very different tacks in response. Gould doesn't seem to care about the allegations regarding Jose but is saying flat-out that Babeu's sexuality is a disqualifier:

Gould said he believed Babeu's posting of pictures on what the lawmaker called a "homosexual hookup website" were a "Congressman Weiner type of moment."

"The real issue here is the poor judgment of a government official, posting those kinds of photos on a public website," Gould said. "I think that shows a lack of good judgment."

He also said he believes Babeu's sexual orientation would hurt him in the district. Gould sponsored Arizona's constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman, an amendment he said drew extremely strong support in the rural counties he and Babeu seek to represent.

Gosar, meanwhile, is completely ignoring Babeu's sexuality and is instead trying to tie Babeu's alleged behavior toward Jose into a larger narrative about his respect—or lack thereof—for the rule of law:
“This is about an abuse of power, a misuse of public trust, and the continued use of official resources for personal and political gain,” said Congressman Gosar, on accusations that Babeu threatened his former Mexican boyfriend with deportation.

Gosar went on to note that “Babeu clearly believes that public funds, provided by hardworking taxpayers, are unlimited and interchangeable with campaign resources.  First, his campaign sent it’s news releases to the county website, where they remained posted for months. Last week, it was discovered that, while his office is over budget, he spent $35,000 on self promotional collectable coins and Centennial celebration badges. Today, in light of these new accusations, he hosted a campaign press conference, in uniform at the sheriff’s office, with sheriffs office employees, campaign staff and campaign volunteers intermingled.  It is as though he believes the rule of law does not apply to him.”

So far, though, the only tangible fallout is that Babeu has stepped down as a campaign co-chair for Mitt Romney—an unfortunate bit of timing for the Romney campaign, with the Arizona primary just a week away. And at least some erstwhile allies, like Sen. John McCain and, moreso, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, are going a bit wobbly in their support for Babeu. But other local backers are standing firm, and on Facebook, Babeu certainly doesn't sound ready to quit.

But a story like this just doesn't go away overnight. We will undoubtedly hear more in the coming days and weeks, and we'll be all over any developments as they happen.

2:05 PM PT: WI-Gov: Former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk just secured the backing of labor union AFSCME as she seeks the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Gov. Scott Walker in what's looking like a very likely recall election later this year.

2:10 PM PT (David Jarman): MN-Sen: One more brave Republican looks set to step in front of the Amy Klobuchar steamroller. (She sports some of the highest approvals of any Senator, and has been leading her announced opponents by more than 20 points in all polls.) Pete Hegseth is the former executive director of Vets for Freedom; he hasn't held elective office before, but he still brings some residual name rec to the table from frequent talking-head appearances on Fox News. (Though ex-state Rep. Dan Severson, the likeliest GOP nominee, shouldn't lack for name rec himself, since he lost the statewide SoS race in 2010.)

2:16 PM PT (David Jarman): MO-Gov: The fact that Bob McDonnell, head of the RGA in addition to his day job as Virginia governor, didn't publicly take sides in the Republican gubernatorial primary over the weekend at a Missouri event, isn't that newsworthy. However, that professed neutrality isn't how things played out in a private meeting with activists earlier that day, when McDonnell told the crowd that he'd support Dave Spence "100%." That created some howls of dismay from the crowd, many of whom were supporters of tea-partier Bill Randles, who seems to have risen out of "Some Dude" territory simply by virtue of the crapiness of his Republican primary opposition. McDonnell quickly recanted, saying that he'd back the nominee, apparently not having been previously aware that establishment-backed Spence faced any opposition in the primary (despite the fact that Randles actually led Spence in the most recent PPP poll of the GOP primary).

2:22 PM PT (David Jarman): MO-Sen: After having been on the wrong end of a lot of Crossroad spending, Claire McCaskill is taking advantage of her large monetary advantage over her Republican opponents to do some radio advertising. She's up with two re-introductory spots (no word on the size of the buy).

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:00:07 AM PST

  •  New Hampshire (5+ / 0-)

    They REALLY need to reduce the size of the assembly. Seriously.

  •  IL-08: The Daily Herald has endorsed (9+ / 0-)

    Tammy Duckworth.

    Both have impeccable credentials. In fact, we are so impressed with each that we wish one had decided to run for another office so they wouldn’t be facing each other in this race.

    Our recommendation is Duckworth. While both candidates are focused on economic issues, Duckworth seems to connect better at what they mean to people. That, combined with her public service experience and her personal strength and resolve give her a slight edge.

    http://www.dailyherald.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:26:27 AM PST

  •  So at what point does Santorum (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, rdw72777, Woody, MichaelNY

    become the front runner if he wins a certain number of states/delegates, even if it's more in spirit or media pimping than anything else? I was thinking earlier about how he might end up doing slightly better than Romney nationwide in a general depending on how he performs, but then it struck me just how out there his comments have been on the past week. I wouldn't be surprised if he views these things as a key to his success, which might mean that he'd double down on the crazy as he started winning more and more and/or ended up as the nominee. If that's the case, he'd drive even more people away from him--too many, I think, to make up for his popularity with social conservatives.

    •  We need AZ/MI and Super Tuesday results (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh, DCCyclone, Woody

      Because right now who the heck knows.  Still seems like AZ and MI will split and Santorum will have a good showing on Super Tuesday (VA and OH ballot mishaps notwithstanding).  Still I think Romney continues to lead the delegate count.

      I'm personally of the belief that Newt needs something special on Super Tuesday to stay viable (above 15%) in states going forward.  I'm wondering if Newt dropping out might help Romney more than Santorum, because on the pendulum of center-right to far-right Newt is closer to Romney than Santorum.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:40:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mitt seems to be making a comeback in MI (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        If he wins the state, and wins Arizona, what does that do to the narrative? Does Santorum deflate, like so many other not-Romneys?

        •  That would be itneresting (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bismuth, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          I'm not even sure it's a Santorum deflate as much as it gives Gingrich some hope in TN and maybe OK.

          Sadly I think Santorum's chances might go down the drain with TX and PA not having their primaries until late-late-late.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:15:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  That seems reasonable. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Newt is slightly more bluster than action when it comes to right-wing craziness, and despite him not being in the good graces of the leadership in Washington, his time in it during the 1990s had to have affected him.

        Whatever the case, I hope it turns nastier, because that can only help Obama.

    •  Delegate leads matter in media narratives now (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      If Santorum and Romney split AZ/MI, Santorum could pull into a virtual delegate tie with WA, making them "co-front runners".

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:43:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  How (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        Romney is ahead, AZ/MI cancel each other out and then WA has caucuses where delegate allocations aren't really known until June.

        To me, WA is nothing more than MO, a win that would result in nothing really happening delegate-wise.

        the only  thing that could actually matter prior to Super Tuesday would be Santorum winning AZ or Romney winning MI, as either would be upsets.  Other than that, AZ/Mi/WA are pretty much going to change nothing.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:48:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Incorrect on comparing WA vs. MO (8+ / 0-)

          1) The WA Caucuses actually elect delegates at a lower level based on their declared Presidential preferences
          1a) Generally, the only reason such delegates change preferences is the withdrawal of their candidate
          1b) However, it's true, WA county/state/congressional district delegates aren't officially committed and are allowed to change their minds when selecting delegates to the national convention
          1c) Nevertheless, the media has always taken the vote in the past, and allocated WA delegates by their vote
          1d) Allocations by vote are more representative of the R caucus, as they don't have a minimum threshold.

          Therefore, WA does matter just before Super Tuesday.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:58:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Even if the media does that (0+ / 0-)

            It's hard to see how Santorum is leading, unless they are doing it in every state so far, which wouldn't make much sense.

            The procedural local/county/CD/state delegate selections would seem to always follow a path of no one changing stances, but this election is just too weird to place history as a predictor.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:06:03 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Weird but consistent with other caucuses (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, Setsuna Mudo, Woody, itskevin, MichaelNY

              my understanding is that Iowa works in a similar fashion, and the media immediately allocated delegates from that race as well.

              As for "no one changing stances", of course it's subject to personalities and personal appeals, but the overall net changes less than one might think.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:14:55 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  But if Romney is up 70 now (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                He can't make up 70 with AZ and WA, even if you count MN and CO.  And that's using media allocation too.

                I still don;t see how Santorum gets to the lead any time soon to be honest, what with Virginia likely being a clean sweep for Romney and Newt still being able to hold down Santorum in the South.

                The calculus is fascinating though.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:20:37 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's why I used the term "virtual tie" (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo

                  "momentum going into Super Tuesday?"

                  "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                  For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                  by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:33:44 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Santorum won't be called "frontrunner" until... (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack, MichaelNY

                    ...after Super Tuesday, if he's won enough states and looking at least even in the delegate count that the media can safely say he's in the driver's seat, even if only barely so.

                    And I think that's fair.  Romney still is the frontrunner, not just based on delegates earned, but on the ability to win states later.  Resources and competence matter, and Santorum is badly lacking in both.  It doesn't do any good to be the flavor of the moment if you melt into nothing in the hot sun.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:08:50 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think it's pretty close now -- in the media (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Just googled

                      Front runner Rommey

                      and

                      Front runner Santorum

                      based on listings for the past week -- and the numbers are quite close (74k links for Romney, 64k links for Santorum)

                      So I wouldn't be able to refute someone who said that Santorum and Romney were co-front runners today -- in the perception of the media.

                      (Reality, of course, is different.)

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:25:35 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Are you sure (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        AUBoy2007, tietack, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                        those links for Santorum aren't just to articles that mention Santorum while applying the "frontrunner" tag to Romney?

                        •  I'm sure. Just take the first page of results (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin, MichaelNY

                          11 of 13 say yes (some are qualified "yes"es)

                          1) "Santorum frontrunner in Republican presidential bid" (ABC online)
                          2) Santorum clear front runner in US poll (Monsters and Critics)
                          3) Is Santorum up to the challenge? (of front runner status -- MSNBC)
                          4) For Santorum, Front-runner Status Comes With Scrutiny  (PBS)
                          5) Rick Santorum, Frontrunner? - ABC News ("maybe")
                          6) Political Animal - GOP Frontrunner Santorum: Obama Agenda ...(Washington Monthly)
                          7) Creative Minority Report: Rick Santorum: Frontrunner!
                          8) Santorum remark on Obama "theology" draws ire - CBS News "the Obama campaign took direct aim at the new front-runner, Rick "
                          9) Santorum, Romney vie to be GOP front-runner - Video on msnbc.com
                          10) Rick Santorum, Christianist Frontrunner? - The Dish | By Andrew Sullivan ...
                          11) Has Rick Santorum finally become a frontrunner? - The Week (basically says no)
                          12) OpEdNews - Article: Rick Santorum, Front-Runner --- For 2016 (also says no)
                          13) Rick Santorum Now The GOP Frontrunner? (outsidethebeltway.com)  - says yes

                          Of course there's leakage. But the new meme is remarkable, in a Hunter Thompson "revenge of the weird" way.

                          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                          by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 04:50:03 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  In contrast, the Romney search (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          itskevin, MichaelNY

                          leads to a first page of results that seem less certain -- at best "imperiled"

                          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                          by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 04:53:56 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

      •  Problem (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

        Arizona is winner-take-all, Michigan is not.

  •  Emily's List TV Ad. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo, askew, Woody
    EMILY’s List is launching a cable TV and internet advertising campaign posing the question "Where are the women?" to reach women across the country and bring them into our community.
    Since the 2010 elections, Emily's List has seen it's membership double to 1 million.

    http://emilyslist.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:31:37 AM PST

  •  Santorum disses the Earth. (5+ / 0-)

    Seriously, we live on Earth and depend on it for our survival and livelihood.  We would be wrong to make its well-being a secondary priority lest we end up living in a "Soylent Green" dystopia.
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:33:13 AM PST

  •  Santorum leads in TX big time according to 1 poll (7+ / 0-)

    R-money time!  Scorch that Earth until everybody is sick of you.
    http://politicalwire.com/...

    Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:38:32 AM PST

    •  Wow that seems high (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      I know it's only a poll and the timing is during Rick's ascendency, but it's still high.  45% for Santorum, wow.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:44:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The actual number may be high (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, Woody

      but who cares?  If the poll is not a complete joke, this is a current data point which makes it all the more clear... the race is Santorum's to lose.

      Mitt can do nothing to win against Santorum.  he could vaporize Newt with negative ads, but that path isn't open to him with Santorum.

      The way for santorum to lose is if he keeps opening up his fool mouth to say things that sound like the ravings of a lunatic.  Contraception, the-Earth-is-dumb, etc etc etc.  he needs to come off as a true believer rightwinger, not an unfocused dolt.

      he needs to talk about Obama, jobs, taxes, debt, healthcare... the stuff people actually care about.  he does that, he wins.  If he babbles about burning witches at the stake, he puts Romney (or a brokered convention) back into the mix.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:12:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Except TX doesn't matter (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        The state won't hold a primary until at least June and by then a definitive leader will be known.  It's a useless data point 3-4 months out.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:17:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Texas matters (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

          ... if you are right that Mitt won't be eliminated by Super Tuesday.

          It should be clear by now that Santorum will get a lot of delegates, and that Mitt has to get some via Virginia and other flukes.  The meat of the delegates won't be awarded until the end of the calendar.

          Texas will matter unless Rick ends it within the next 15 days.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:43:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Texas doesn't matter today (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            And it will likely just choose whoever has the most delegates whenever they have their election.  But nobody is going to net a huge win in Texas.  It's hard to see anyone wining the state by 20%+.  McCain only won by 13%.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:55:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  This poll to the contrary (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

              The main thing though is Texas matters in that now Rick can be behind but point to something at the end of the calendar that gives him a path to the nomination.

              More obviously, Mitt can point to those 50 Utah delegates in the last primary of the season.  

              In contrast, Mitt can't point to Texas on Super Tuesday and say it is a good example of an upcoming favorable state.  Rick on the other hand can, and it will help his fundraising.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:10:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Mitt can point to IL, NY, CA and so on (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo

                Texas really can't balance all of this out.  Even if you believe Santorum gets 50% in Texas, its proportional.  With 155 delegates he would be unlikely to net 50 delegates out of Texas.  Mitt will probably net 40+ delegates out of VA, CA, UT, and NJ alone.  

                And Mitt has these little pockets built-in (Idaho, US territories, small new England states, etc) where he can keep up his delegate totals even if he runs into complications

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:20:05 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  No he can't (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8, James Allen

                  That's the point.  Mitt is not ahead in polls in those states.  he can point to nothing except Utah.

                  Rick will win IL easily, and probably also will win CA and NJ... if he is still in the race.  (That is almost a given, since he needs to keep winning to stay in.)

                  The end of the calendar is all Santorum, except Utah.  The recent CA had them basically tied, but with 37% either undecided or going Paul/Newt.  Undecided and Newt voters have been breaking hard toward Rick on election days.

                  This phenomenon could change, but if doesn't, TX/PA/CA/NJ look to be big victories for Santorum.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:42:08 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  How often has this "carpetbagger" line (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo, andgarden

    been an effective attack?  Off the top of my head, I can't think of a single race where it likely had a significant effect on the outcome.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:40:04 AM PST

    •  Not in an open seat (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, jncca, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

      I feel like the attack resonates more when it's against an incumbent who moved away from the district; it's why Sam Gejdenson lost in 2000.  But in a state like California, where the populace is more mobile to begin with, I can't expect it go gain much traction.  Just look at Tom McClintock and Dan Lungren, who moved across the state to win congressional seats.

      NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

      by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:43:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Charlie Brown v. McClintock in 2008 (4+ / 0-)

      Charlie Brown (D) came this close to beating McClintock in a district that is one of the most conservative in all California.

      Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:43:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I suppose, although Brown might have been a good (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        candidate for other reasons.  I think that if a candidate were generally a bad fit, or unfamiliar with local issues (and unwilling to learn), that might matter.  

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:50:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I canvassed for that campaign (6+ / 0-)

        Brown was able to connect well with the conservative voters (who were tired of corrupt politicians) of the district.

        Had Doolittle run again in 2008 we would have won here for sure. Brown had the uphill task of facing a new opponent (that lacked the scandal of Doolittle) and running in an R+8 district in an election year.
        He still kept it very close, If the district had been a point or two more democratic we could have pulled it off. I don't know if he would have survived the 2010 wave, but it was good to know we could compete here.

        23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

        by lordpet8 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:25:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Has this district changed that much (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, Woody, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

          in redistricting? Given Obama's strength in California and the seeming inability on the part of the Republicans to hope to compete there, it's worth taking a look at every district in the state.

          •  well McClintock is in a pretty safe district now (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, Woody, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

            the new maps make it the 7th most Republican district in the state. McCain scored 54% to Obama's 43% which about the same numbers in the old district

            Obama did greatly improve from Kerry who only got 37% here but It is still a very Republican district.
            Barring some major scandal I think it would be easier to focus on the swingier Republican districts (like Issa, McKeon, Mack, Denham, Lungren, Bilbray)

            23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

            by lordpet8 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:00:05 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh, absolutely. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SoCalGal23

              No doubt those districts come first, especially Issa's, since he's a gigantic douche bag. But if we are looking to be aggressive, and it looks like we have the pieces in place, perhaps we can make it a target. It is pretty Republican, but under the right circumstances, it looks like we may be able to win it.

              By the way, would you count the Green Party votes from 2010 as Democratic votes, or are they considered separate and not likely to exist at all if there's no Green candidate in the race?

              •  Of course (4+ / 0-)

                The thing is we don't have the strongest bench of candidates in that area, Brown had little prior political experience when he ran in 2006, he was a retired Airforce Lt. Colonel. His 2006 race let him build up name recognition but it wasn't enough to unseat Doolittle.

                By the time 2008 rolled in, Brown had high name recognition, high enough to scare Doolittle into retirement.

                It's tricky to count 3rd party votes, generally speaking  Green Party candidates do siphon of Democratic votes.
                The same could be said of having a Libertarian candidate on the ballot for Republicans (which happened in 2006)

                I feel 3rd party candidates can either help or hurt the candidate. One could argue the Libertarian on the ballot was the reason why Doolittle failed to get 50% of the vote (therefore weakening him) but at the same time have the libertarian candidate could have split the anti-Doolittle vote (therefore helping doolittle). Voters who hated Dolittle's corruption but didn't want to vote for a Dem could cast their votes for the Libertarian in the race.

                23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

                by lordpet8 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:41:25 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  green votes (0+ / 0-)

                I think the portion of green votes that a Dem could get would depend on 2a things:

                1. Was the race competitive in 2010? If not, a good number of these might be persuaded to vote Dem. If so, then probably not as the Dem probably made an effort to reach them already and they still decided to throw protest votes instead of trying to influence the outcome.

                2. (much less important) Is there a green on the ballot in 2012? Some of them might consider a Dem if their preferred protest option isn't available.

                2a. (even less important) If there is no green on the ballot, is there a libertarian or some other named option? Some green votes may just be generic protest votes as opposed to specific lefty votes. Not an expert on the psychology of protest voters, but some of them may be willing to vote for a major party candidate (as opposed to writing someone in or not voting at all) if there is no named protest candidate on the ballot.

                SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:45:54 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  california has changed its primary (0+ / 0-)

                  The top two vote winning candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election.  A third party only goes to  the general election in California if he/she is one of those top two in the primary. This year will be the first year that will proceed in that manner.

                  the vote for president in California might be an exception, but I dont think so.

              •  I wouldn't count all (0+ / 0-)

                but certainly 50%+, as many will vote for president, and thus have to deliberately not vote for Congress.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:16:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Yep (9+ / 0-)

          Definitely a Cubin/Lummis-type situation. Poor Charlie Brown. Poor Gary Trauner.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:28:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  He actually came closer against John Doolittle (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SoCalGal23

        in 2006, and probably would have beat him in 2008 had he not retired.

        Of course, I doubt he could have held on in 2010 regardless.

        24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:43:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It doesn't usually work (6+ / 0-)

      Although, I do have concerns about how well Brownley can perform, since she is very Santa Monica based and in the top two she'll be facing an opponent from Ventura County. She's got to get started immediately at introducing herself to the county.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:54:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The good news is (4+ / 0-)

        her quick announcement makes it seem like she's aware that there's no time to waste.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:58:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I think that if a candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        has a low or nonexistent profile or name recognition in an area, that matters more than their residence.  My impression is that former elected officials tend to perform better than non-politicians, and it's possible that, if an elected official isn't familiar to the area they're running in, that they sacrifice some of that advantage.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:03:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Carpetbag was used against a Strickland (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          in VTA County, and Mrs. Strickland lost 60/40. And she had rep'd the area in the assembly, when she ran to rep it as a county supervisor. But I don't think it was the carpetbagging that killed her. I think it was the Stricklandness.

          Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits. Satchel Paige 1906-82

          by threesmommy on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:56:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right, it can be hard to know which attacks (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, threesmommy, MichaelNY

            worked and which didn't (if the election hinged on attacks at all).  

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:03:43 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  They are big office shoppers (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, MichaelNY

            In 2006, she tried to pull papers for both of them to run for Gallegly's seat, but it wasn't possible and he un-retired. In 2010, she opted to run for Secretary of State, then tried to run for County Treasurer, but didn't have the necessary credentials and the board of supervisors said no, which she blamed on Parks and ran against her in retribution.

            And we know Tony has run statewide and lost before. Some folks around here take issue with how they jump from office to office.

            25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

            by DrPhillips on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:48:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Carpetbagging here is LA vs Ventura (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalGal23, hankmeister, MichaelNY

      That isn't a small thing in Ventura.

      Santa Monica is a long way away geographically and also lifestyle-wise.

      I don't know if another Dem candidate is a good thing or not.  What we need is a dominant Dem candidate who can get 25% in the primary.

      This still the scariest CA seat.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:20:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN-redistricting (7+ / 0-)

    Everyone is on pins and needles. I doubt there will be much controversy with the congressional lines. The big uproar will likely be with the legislative districts, particularly outstate. There needs to be a net movement if about 2 senate seats from outstate to the metro. Where do these districts come from? Population losses are prominent in the "L" farmland, but is it enough to take two full senate districts from the region? then the question becomes what defines the metro? Tradition has long been defined as the "7 county metro area". Republicans want to expand this to the "11 county metro area". I think it should be more like the 8 county metro area, but who knows how the courts will judge that.

    •  The Census has their own definition (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, hankmeister, MichaelNY

      I wonder if they take their cues from the state or vice-versa.  Is the metro area formally defined by some kind of Minnesota statute?  Or is it just tradition?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:07:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  As far as statute goes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        The closest thing I can think of off the top of my head is the Met Counsel. The Metropolitan Counsel is a board appointed by Tue governor, and have authority over pretty much all of the happenings within the 7 county area, and have no say is what goes on outside if that area. So I believe you can infer that there is legal precident for defining the "metro" as Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Anoka, Dakota, Scott, and Carver counties.

  •  CT-05: Elizabeth Esty is $5,000 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    away from raising $1 million. Is this going to be one of the most expensive Democratic primaries this cycle?

    https://twitter.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:18:15 AM PST

  •  As someone who lives in WI I'm pretty dumbfounded (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, SaoMagnifico

    what to do.  Really our ace in the hole is Feingold and he won't help us in our time of need.  Nobody else has the profile to compete financially with Scott Walker.  Our shot at governor feels like an egg that's cracking.  If Democrats go after each other at all I really don't think there's much we can do.  

    •  Feingold has an issue though (6+ / 0-)

      He's hellbent on refusing third party spending on his behalf and he always self-limits his fundraising as he never wants to spend more than X dollars per person in the state.

      Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:32:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  For instance (6+ / 0-)

        in 1998, he had no excuse to only beat Mark Neumann by a slim margin.  Polls had him up 20 early on, but because he refused third-party spending, Neumann battered him to hell and back.  At the 11th hour, labor unions spent on his behalf despite his objections and that probably made all the difference.

        Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

        by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:34:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Does WI really need a fundraising behemoth (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, Woody, itskevin, MichaelNY

      I mean isn't this race high profile enough that even a Barrett would be fine.  I'd have to imagine the DGA might step in to help too.  And unions, with whatever money they have left.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:34:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  scott walker turned 40/55 approvals (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, MichaelNY

        to 55/40 by blanketing the state with 10 million dollars of advertising.  He has people believe losing the most jobs in the last 6 months out of any state is progress.  Yeah the DGA will be involved, so will the RGA and the Koch brothers.  I don't see Barrett turning into a fundraising juggernaut just because of it being Republican boogeyman Scott Walker.  Groups have milked this during the senate recalls and they've been milking it again and the last e-mail I had for the 'defeat walker moneybomb' raised 160k while Democratic candidates are raising money for a primary and Scott Walker is collecting dues from his out of state cronies.  I don't think the blogs can overpower a 12 million dollar head start.  That's without Koch or Rove superpac spending.  

        •  But is it needed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          I mean there comes a point where people are just too dumb for the money to matter.  if people believe things are going great due to ads, then what chance does anyone have.

          In the end, i don't care much since the Senate will probably flip back to D and the end of the radical triumvirate will be here.  The damage is already done, there's not much more he can do with a Dem-controlled Senate.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:48:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Won't the Senate just flip R again in November? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They'll be running on the new Republican maps, after all.

            (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

            by TrueBlueDem on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:12:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Some might (5+ / 0-)

              Who knows.  I can't predict this afternoon never mind November.  I was never that hopeful of taking down Walker unless someone strong came in swashbuckling heroism, and that didn't happen.

              As for the Senate, I have no idea the complete list of districts are up in 2012 and which ones are likely to flip.  I honestly think there's a better chance that Dems hold the Senate in November than beat Walker.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:19:18 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe, but if the legislative maps are thrown out (4+ / 0-)

              then it won't flip back.  The courts do not sound at all kindly to the state for their trickery and breaking of laws.

              Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

              by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:22:06 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Not necessarily (4+ / 0-)

              The seats up in November weren't gerrymandered that hard against Dems. They were more geared toward protecting Republican incumbents. The most endangered incumbents are probably King, Holperin, and Hansen, in that order. King is probably a toss up, and the other two lean Dem (assuming no retirements)

              If we pick up two seats in the recalls, we could afford to lose King and still hold the Senate. So really, any two victories among King, Lehman, Seidel, and Dexter are enough to hold the Senate through 2014.

  •  WI-Gov (8+ / 0-)

    Barrett has to get in, he just does.  Every one of the "major" players in the state has had the chance to announce and hasn't.  It's time he jumped in, and hopefully the field clears.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:27:22 AM PST

    •  you prefer him to La Follette? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo
      •  I prefer just about everyone (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        To the 2 named candidates in right now.

        I think the reason both Barrett and LaFollette are out right now is they want to run in 2014.  Barrett would be a 2-time loser to Walker so not a great candidate.  LaFollette would rather be the popular SoS than a defeated Guv candidate.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:50:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  LaFollette is very blah as a campaigner (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, itskevin, MichaelNY

        In 2010, he nearly lost to a teabagger who also had a history of sexual harassment.

        Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

        by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:51:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  compare that ti how every single other (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          Statewide Democratic candidate did. Everyone else lost, everyone. La Follette is the only one to survive. That says something.

          •  Consdiering (5+ / 0-)

            He's like a 7-term incumbent it's not all that impressive.  He got 50K more votes than Feingold and 70K mroe than Barrett.

            The real difference is that the challengers to Feingold/Barrett did, in that the SoS race had 80-90K under-votes.

            Lafollette would have ended up with the same result as Feingold or Barrett, no doubt.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:10:21 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It says nothing (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            Except that people have a slight inclination to vote for a long term incumbent in an office that does nothing.

            Nothing about running for Secretary of State in Wisconsin is at all comparable to running for Governor. You don't have to have a grasp on policy. You don't have to have a message. You don't need to raise much money. You don't need to be well-known or likable. You don't need a campaign staff.

            Doug LaFollette would make Martha Coakley look like JFK.

          •  LaFollette's opponent was bottom of the barrel (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            He wasn't some Republican who had good retail abilities, he was an out-and-out teabagger with tons of baggage.

            Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

            by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:54:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  He polls about the same as Falk (0+ / 0-)

      Despite being better known.

      At this point, I'm leaning toward Falk just because she's the only one who's done anything to try to win. She's the only one acting like she actually wants the job and isn't scared of Scott Walker.  I've had enough with this finger in the wind bullshit.

  •  Reposting NJ news roundup (9+ / 0-)

    first off in NJ-07, where there won't be another Potosnak attack: Ed Potosnak, the Dem candidate for this seat in 2010, has accepted a position as Executive Director of the NJ League of Conservation Voters. While it's nice to see him land on his feet (he is cute, openly gay, and held a Republican incumbent to under 60% in 2010 despite being unheralded), this means he likely won't be running against Lance.

    On the other side of the aisle, however, Lance's 2010 primary opponent David Larsen is back. Lance held off Larsen 56-31 in 2010, but this is a new, more conservative district. Don't leave our cats hungry, Republicans!

    Meanwhile, in NJ-09, Steve Rothman's campaign has released letters from Orthodox Rabbis in the city of Passaic urging Republican congregants to switch parties and vote for Rothman. This is relevant largely because Pascrell has done a good job of getting big Bergen County endorsements. Rothman's support in the city of Passaic (Asm. Gary Schaer is also supporting him) is a sign that he's not going to become Brad Sherman.

    In the NJ-Sen front, Chris Christie has formally endorsed State Sen. Joe Kyrillos to take on US Sen. Bob Menendez. This is significant mainly because 2010 NJ-06 candidate Anna Little is also in the race. Still, Little surprised everyone by edging out establishment Republican Diane Gooch in the NJ-06 primary two years ago, so cat fud fans should still keep their fingers crossed.

    On a state legislative level, it's looking like there will be at least three special elections for Assembly this November. First up is LD-04, where Democrat Gabby Mosquera won election last year, but the NJ Supreme Court ruled that her election was invalid due to residency laws. However, that ruling only extended to last year's election, meaning that she is eligible to be appointed by local Dem leaders anyhow. This is a Dem-leaning district in Camden and Gloucester counties, and I don't foresee problems holding it, as the Senator and other Assemblyman are both Democrats.

    Next up is LD-16, where Republican Assemblyman Peter Biondi died shortly after being elected last year. Local Republican leaders selected Donna Simon to replace him. This is a somewhat swingy district (around D+1 maybe?) which mixes Republicans in Hunterdon and Somerset counties with Princeton and South Brunswick. The Senator and other Assemblyman are Republicans, but with college students coming out to vote for Obama, I'm sure this is a winnable race. And if we want to override Gov. Christie's veto of marriage equality, we need to target this race, hard.

    Sadly, potential cat fud was destroyed when 2004 NJ-12 candidate (and 2010 primary loser) Bill Spadea, who was defeated by Simon for the appointment, decided not to challenge her in the primary. The Dems running to challenge Simon are 2011 loser Marie Corfield, Princeton Twp Deputy Mayor Sue Nemeth, and former Rocky Hill council candidate William O'Brien. They will face off in a March 11 convention for the Dem nod.

    Last up is LD-26, where Assemblywoman Betty Lou DeCroce replaced her husband, Minority Leader Alex DeCroce, after he died unexpectedly. This is a very red district based in Morris County and I don't expect any drama here.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:50:41 AM PST

  •  Brownley's "too lib" response should be (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, Woody, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

    "If support for educating our next generation is liberal, then count me in."
    I think of it as a no-brainer to put a spotlight on education finance and funding (which are two different things), as a 99% issue. If it's true that 20% of millenial recent grads are unemployed, then let's put them on the voting rolls even if they aren't on the unemployment rolls. Show them how things could be different.
    Funding:dedicate tax money to lowering the cost of tuition at state colleges.
    Finance--government student loans at .01% interest.

    Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits. Satchel Paige 1906-82

    by threesmommy on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:52:09 AM PST

  •  Donovan-Esty (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    Seems to have the same dynamic as Schneider-Sheyman

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:16:59 AM PST

  •  PPP tweets (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, lordpet8, Woody, MichaelNY
    PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Romney leads Santorum by just 3 in Arizona, 36-33. Gingrich at 16%, Paul at 9%: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/r…
    PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Romney strong in Arizona with women, Hispanics, seniors, moderates and 'somewhat conservative' voters: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/r…
    PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Santorum winning Tea Party, Evangelicals, 'very conservative' in AZ, but by much smaller margins than in MI: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/r…
    PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Big thing to watch in AZ: can Newt hold his 16%? Weakly committed supporters could leave for Santorum- publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/r…
    PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Santorum (+34 at 61/27) is more popular in AZ than Romney (+24 at 58/34): publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/r…

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:19:10 AM PST

    •  Rick could make a play (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      for the Hispanic vote in AZ, though I'd imagine there would be some risk there as he targets the Midwest. I can't see, however, how Mitt's support among Hispanic voters could be solid, given his opportunistic attacks on Perry relative to immigration.

  •  VA Sen/Pres (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    Romney by 3, Allen by 2.
    http://www.cnu.edu/...

    "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

    by drhoosierdem on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:43:27 AM PST

  •  Queensland state election roundup (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, Woody, Lidem89

    Labor is up on the air with two ads touting the Bligh government's response to the devastating floods of 2011 and Cyclone Yasi. Both ads are basically the same, except the flood ad shows a picture of flooded Brisbane and the Yasi ad shows a destroyed house.

    The LNP is up with a new ad as well touting their economic plans. Plus they have an annoying jingle at the beginning of the ad.

    The Courier Mail published an article over the weekend detailing Labor's strategy of preventing Campbell Newman from winning the seat of Ashgrove. Also mentioned is how the electorate is being saturated by both Labor and the LNP.

    The LNP's private polling three weeks ago put the two-party vote in its favour, 53 per cent to 47 per cent. But it was the "solid" nature of those votes - that is, voters had no intention of changing their minds - that is boosting their confidence.

    Labor's work shows a "softer" or moving vote, and it believes that has helped Jones over the past four weeks, and could even provide a fillip elsewhere in the state.

    "Bligh is like Howard," one senior ALP insider said. "People have made up their mind about her. Ashgrove is about a month ahead of the rest of the state. They are having a closer look at Newman and starting to ask questions."

    That belief is at the centre of the attacks on the Newman family's business dealings.

    This explains Anna Bligh's hysterical attack on Newman this week, and you can expect more of it. Any doubts Labor can raise over Newman also take attention away from its own record in government.

    The LNP will focus on that record, believing voters in Ashgrove are just like those in seats across the state wanting to punish Labor.

    There's no doubt Kate Jones is a strong and popular local candidate but even the best swimmers will need a lot of good luck if they're to survive a tsunami.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/...

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:44:15 AM PST

  •  Sooner Poll (OK) (4+ / 0-)

    Santorum 39, Romney 23, Gingrich 18, Paul 8.
    Now the sample size is small (n=300), so the usual warnings apply. On the other hand, it is not out of whack with the conventional wisdom that Santorum is the favorite to win Oklahoma.
    http://soonerpoll.com/...

    •  Oklahoma (4+ / 0-)

      Is a good example of why the road to hoe is so hard for Santorum.

      If these results hold, I'd assume Santorum might win all 5 CD's for the 15 CD delegates.  The remaining 25 would be portioned out to Santorum/Romney/Gingirch.  looks like Santorum would get 13 of those, 7 for Romney and 5 for Gingrich.

      So the total for the state would be Santorum 28, Romney 7 and Gingrich 5.  And that assumes Santorum wins all CD's which might not be likely.

      Consider then that Romney will net 40+ delegates in VA and 30-40 more from Indiana, and you can see just how hard it will be for Santorum to get a delegate lead with PA/TX having delayed primaries.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:06:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Newt wins Indiana (4+ / 0-)

        I don't get why anybody thinks Mitt wins Indiana.

        Indiana will just be the reverse of missouri.  Without Santorum on the ballot, Newt wins as the only non-Romney (and non-Paul)... especially if Newt has dropped out before the primary and endorsed Santorum.

        Mitt can't win based on just the flukes.  he can prolong it though until TX/CA/PA/NJ finally drive the stake through his heart.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:27:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Either way, Santorum gets zilch (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          His 2 biggest competitors get delegates, he doesn't.  Romney will get at least a dozen delegates (4 CD's) in Indiana even if Gingrich wins, if not closer to 20.  There's only 27 delegates available in the primary, hard to see Gingrich sweeping 9 districts.  If he does, that's not good for Santorum.

          The un-pledged delegates never mattered much as they are "float in the wind" delegates until the June convention.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:33:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's great for santorum if Newt sweeps (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            Obviously it would be better for Rick if he is on the ballot and sweeps himself, but it would be fantastic for him if newt sweeps instead.

            It is not an implausible scenrio for Newt to win GA and TN on Super Tuesday and set himself up as the stronger opponent than Romney going forward.  If Newt can win the Confederacy (except TX and VA), his base is as large as Romney's New England plus the Mormon states.

            Also, the most likely scenario is newt drops out at some point and urges his delegates to support Rick.  The of course if this happens before Indiana, Newt will win easily if he is an above board stalking horse for Rick.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:51:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If Newt wins (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              GA and TN he isn't going to dropout before Texas (i.e. he won't dropout ever).  It's sill that you think he'd have these big Southern wins but dropout on a whim.

              Newt as a proxy for Santorum also isn't going to work in Indiana just like Paul for Santorum isn't going to work in Virginia.  

              I still have no idea why you think mitt isn't the strongest coming out of Super Tuesday.  He'll have more state wins (with actual delegates awarded), more delegates, more money, better organization in upcoming states, etc.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:00:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I can't imagine what you are thinking (0+ / 0-)

                Romney wins Vermont and Idaho on Super tuesday, plus the state he was Gov of and the fluke of Virginia.  I can't see how he stays in the race at that point, unless he wants to be humiliated.

                Mitt needs to win somewhere outside his base and the fluke states.  If he does, then the race changes its complexion.  He just has to do it.

                Newt won't drop out if he wins the southern states, but very likely will if he wins nothing.  I find it hard to believe you don't agree that if newt loses GA (and everywhere else) that he won't likely drop out.  

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:17:32 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  He doens't need to win otuside his base (0+ / 0-)

                  Because his base is bigger than Santorum's.  I don't know why you think Santorum can compete in New England or NY or CA or IL.  

                  Mitt can get a bigger delegate edge out of Super tuesday than Santorum can.  Virginia and idaho alone could get him 70 delegates, while Sanroum can probably max out at 20 in OK and 30 each in GA/TN/OH, and even then that's if he hits the high 40%'s that he's not going to.

                  If Newt drops out post Super Tuesday, what does it matter in your analysis, the Southern primaries will already have been done.  it's not like they are going to re-run them if Newt drops out.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:24:45 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Good comment, and frankly a must-read (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, tietack, MichaelNY

        Anyone who is anxious to annoint Santorum the frontrunner or likely nominee ought to read rdw's comment immediately above, and note that the scenario he describes is multiplied many times over.  That's why Mitt remains the frontrunner and Santorum won't and can't be for a long time, unless he actually sweeps MI and AZ and Super Tuesday.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:38:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, but (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack, James Allen, Lidem89, askew, MichaelNY

          look at the calendar. If I had to wager, I would expect the next few weeks to play out like this:

          Feb 28: Santorum wins MI, Romney wins AZ

          3/3: Santorum wins WA

          3/6: Romney wins MA, VT, VA (by default), ID; Santorum wins AK, ND, TN, OK, GA (or finishes second to Newt?), OH. Big day for Santorum.

          3/10: Santorum wins KS and WY (the latter on Super Tuesday momentum; otherwise i wouldn't favor him there); Romney wins USVI, Guam (jokey non-states)

          3/13: Santorum wins AL and MS with over 50%; Romney wins a couple more islands (HI; American Samoa)

          3/14: Newt drops out!!! Santorum consolidates conservative support.

          3/17: Santorum wins MO.

          Now that is a pretty long streak of Santorumentum, if it actually comes to pass. Romney might win nothing but islands (inc. PR on 3/18) until IL on 3/20.

          And it might be enough that Santorum wins Illinois, and even if he's still a bit behind in delegates at that point, he'd have major factions of the party united around him at that point. And Romney will have become such a joke that there'd be no saving him.

          •  Here's the problem with all that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            First, your assumptions about Santorum winning all those states is a reach.  Newt, too, should've turned his SC win into a big run, but couldn't and Mitt buried him.  Who says Mitt can't similarly bury Santorum?  Santorum is not a clear favorite even in Michigan coming up, and frankly I get the sense the campaign press still thinks Mitt ends up squeaking by.  Mitt is burying him on the air and that has always worked, as it usually does in most elections.  It might not this time, but the onus is on Santorum to prove it.

            Second, the GOP is never going to unify around Santorum, especially not as soon as 5 weeks from now.  Look at how they're talking already, they're panic-stricken by Santorum's rise.  Santorum has no establishment support, and that matters.  They recognize his public image is poor and will blow up in the party's face if he's the nominee, and worse yet this is a guy with no pollster and no campaign office!  Santorum is not going to be a better candidate or have a better campaign by the end of March.

            Romney will, indeed, be a joke if he were to wind up by March 21 as you describe.  But he'll still be less a joke as a general election nominee, than Santorum even at that point.  Santorum inspires his party's panic, simiilar to Newt.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:10:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Row to hoe (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Sorry to be a stickler, but you don't use hoes on roads, but in farms.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 12:27:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Pssh <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 07:28:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin and Reid Ribble (7+ / 0-)

    introduce "CHEATS Act". The bill is expected to pass, with bipartisan support.

    “It is a great day when policy makers can set aside their political differences and fight together to support hometown business and jobs,” Kent Willetts, a senior executive at Appleton Inc., said in a statement.
    This should be good optics for Baldwin.

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:59:36 AM PST

  •  CA GOP Primary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, SoCalGal23, MichaelNY

    yes I know its a while away but the high unpredictability of this GOP race has been making me feel that I may just have to eat crow for the first time

    So one of my liberal friends told me a few months ago that he was going to register Republican for the next election. He planned to vote for the craziest GOP out there as a means to make it harder for Mitt to win. I told him flatly that it really wouldn't matter as the GOP primary in CA is so late in the season that the GOP would have already coalesed around the front runner.

    While still think that GOP primary will be decided before CA its looking ever and ever more like CA might matter. With some pundits saying its a 50-50 shot that CA will be important in deciding who the nominee will be.

    To be fair my friend was gunning for Bachmann at the time but heck I bet he'd a be Santorum supporter for the primary now.

    Though I do love what some of the prognosticators have been saying about this election

    A Democratic panelist likened Romney’s dilemma to a challenge Purina Dog Chow might face: “Romney has an old advertising problem. Despite great packaging, clever ads and a super enriched formula, dogs don’t like it.”
    In the CA Primary:
    “The last thing the Republicans need is three or four white guys slugging it out in front of the most diverse audience in the nation.”
    http://www.calbuzz.com/...

    23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

    by lordpet8 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:13:01 AM PST

    •  "...in front of the most diverse audience... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8, SoCalGal23

      ... in the nation where they have no chance of winning in the fall."  The joke is on the Republican party.  Headline: SF hippies decide GOP nominee.

      Mitt can't win it quick (without some miracle).  Rick can win quick if Mitt wants to avoid being humiliated after Rick sweeps almost everything between now and the end of Super Tuesday.  

      Probably more likely though this thing goes all the way to the end, and even then it may not be the end.  Mitt might not drop out because he gets about 100 delegates from flukes. That isn't enough to win, but it might be enough for Rick to not get a majority before the convention.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:34:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  ThinkProgress has a good roundup (11+ / 0-)

    of where marriage equality stands in various states.

    Highlights:

    -In WA, Team Bigot has already raised over a million dollars to put gay marriage to a vote this November. As with Referendum 71 in 2009, we want voters to vote YES on this one (Referendum 74).

    -In IL, Gov. Pat Quinn has promised to help round up votes to pass marriage equality.

    -In RI, my state senator is going to reintroduce a bill to legalize gay marriage. We probably have enough votes in the House, but the Senate is tougher since the Senate President is opposed. Still, Godspeed!

    -CO's Senate Judiciary Committee passed civil unions last week 5-2, with all 4 Dems and moderate Republican Ellen Roberts voting in favor.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:21:08 AM PST

    •  Come on Illinois! (8+ / 0-)

      You can't let Iowa be the only Midwestern state with Marriage Equality.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:22:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  How is (Mike) Madigan on the issue? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        He's kind of old-guard.

        24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:49:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Madigan voted for civil unions (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, jeffmd, MichaelNY

          and both Sen. Pres. John Cullerton and former Sen. Pres. Emil Jones were cosponsors. So if they're not already supportive, they're at least gettable.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:00:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think IL (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            stays away for the benefit of the president. They dont want him to have to answer the question till after his reelect.

            •  I really doubt that's a factor (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, DCCyclone, Skaje, MichaelNY

              Obama has been evading the issue for the longest time. He was asked about it when he visited WA. Even if his home state takes it up, he will do what he's been doing.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:16:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It will be tough (0+ / 0-)

                and if Santorum ends up being the nominee it just adds one more component to the culture war that Obama does not need.

                •  The "culture wars" are not a factor this year. (4+ / 0-)

                  Independents are solely concerned about the economy. If Illinois passed Marriage Equality, President Obama would continue to evade the question.

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:27:11 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Not really (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

                  It's 2012, not 2004. The culture wars may not necessarily help Obama, but they definitely will not hurt him. Besides, several states he needs like CO and VA are well-educated and won't respond to that kind of stuff, and NC has it in the spotlight anyway. Thanks to ME, MD, NJ, and WA, gay marriage is already an issue regardless of what IL does.

                  21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:29:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  That's nonsense (4+ / 0-)

                  Santorum doesn't complicate anything, on the contrary Santorum makes everything easy for Democrats.  Santorum is the GOP's nightmare right now and would be moreso in the fall.

                  Obama for his part deflects questions on the issue and will just do more of the same.

                  It doesn't mean anything for Obama if Illinois takes it up this year.  There's nothing special about Obama for the media to report, they'll just ask the same questions and Obama will give the same answer he's given for years.

                  And if Santorum is the GOP nominee, gay marriage is yet one more thing that doesn't help him vs. Obama.  It doesn't help first because Obama as an elected official has refused to endorse gay marriage (even though he did in the 90s before flipping!), and second because it's yet one more thing that's disastrously off-message for Republicans, a frequent problem for them since the midterms and no small cause of their horrible predicament now.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:36:38 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  We're rapidly approaching the point (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Woody, lordpet8, Setsuna Mudo

                  when half of America supports marriage equality.  Progress is still slow at the legislative level (though accelerating), but the theory that more states enacting marriage equality is going to somehow hurt Democrats is quickly becoming obsolete.

                  No one would be stupid enough to literally change their vote to Republican over that issue when the economy, taxes, jobs, and healthcare are voters' most important issues by far.  As for risks of increased conservative turnout, I find it hard to believe that any of the bigots who would be motivated by this are otherwise going to sit out the election.  Obama being himself pretty much guarantees maximum Republican turnout.

        •  The old guard... (5+ / 0-)

          hasn't been uniformly "conservative" on the issue of marriage equality, actually.

          Daley was a massive champion of the LGBT community during his tenure as mayor; many of these machine-y guys are actually very progressive on gay issues. Lipinski will continue to be an asshole; on civil unions, though, many of the machine-y southwest side state Reps. did vote yes.

          In Illinois, the key to marriage equality will be getting suburban GOPers. The African-American caucus in the lege, in contrast to in other states (cough, Maryland), has been very supportive (James Meeks aside); "reform" Dems are of course in the bag; the small-but-sure-to-grow-post-redistricting Hispanic caucus in the lege has also been generally in favor.

          We need to crack a few suburban Republicans, especially from the affluent socially liberal North suburbs (Bill Brady did NOT do well there) for this thing to pass. But as I've said before, we're better off saving our resources until 2013, when the lege will have added the redistricting windfall Dem caucus.

          Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

          by jeffmd on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:59:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It'd be nice to see where everyone (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden, MichaelNY

            stands, before 2013.

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:03:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's probably fair. (4+ / 0-)

              Marriage equality definitely won't pass with this legislature; we only got civil unions from the lame duck legislature that was really elected in 2008. We lost several pro-equality members to the red tide.

              A vote in this session would probably make it look as if there's less support than there actually is (e.g., the Joe Addobbo and Shirley Huntley's would almost definitely vote no). I'm definitely cynical, but I don't see a lot of the members of the lege having the cojones to vote yes when the bill is sure to fail.

              I think the best time would be 2013, after Quinn's finished his last budget and can make this his major priority, there's a more supportive legislature in place, and many members of the Senate (the more difficult body, IMO) not having to face re-election until 2016.

              Before then, I think the resources are better devoted to states with referendums -- Maryland and Washington.

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

              by jeffmd on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:14:19 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Same is true in NJ (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            Steven Goldstein, chair of Garden State Equality, claimed that South Jersey Dem boss George Norcross has been pushing for marriage equality hard. (Which is good news if we want to bring the three South Jersey Dems who voted against us back into the fold.)

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:07:23 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm curious how good the IL lege map is (0+ / 0-)

            it's typically hard to get a lot of info on state legislature redistricting, but it's really important.  I know that for the first time in 40 years Democrats had complete control over the process so I'm expecting some decent gains.

            •  It's very good, IMO. (5+ / 0-)

              A big part of it was just holding the seats that we already hold, given the population loss the City and near suburbs faced. IIRC, the 2001-2011 map was also Dem drawn; but was chosen via tiebreaker. (This arcane process was the subject of a suit that the IL Supreme Court declined to hear.)

              The tweaks though, are good for us. I'm not as familiar with the House, but in the Senate, I think we're almost sure to regain a veto-proof majority, with a pickup in the 31st and new 49th. (The fact that it threw four incumbent GOPers into the same DuPage district is just icing on the cake.)

              I think this is actually critical -- I have a really hard time seeing, short of Lisa Madigan running, the state electing a Democrat as Governor for a fourth consecutive term (we've had one of Rod, one of half-Rod half-Quinn, and now Quinn's first full term).

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

              by jeffmd on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:22:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think Madigan will run. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo, askew, MichaelNY

                Also, if we were going to lose the Governorship, it would have been, in 2010. I think Illinois is at that point, were it would take a perfect storm. Corruption, red tide, and a moderate.

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:34:48 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm not so sure. (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8, JGibson, MichaelNY

                  I think Illinois likes to elect its token moderate Republicans, be it Mark Kirk or Judy Baar Topinka. Before Kirk's recent health scare, I would have wagered that Kirk would run for Governor in 2014. Depending on how his recovery progresses, I think that's still a possibility.

                  My money is now on Dan Rutherford, the new state Treasurer. I've harped on this before, but I think he's noting Brady's mistakes and taking them to heart. Similar profile -- downstate state Senator, but unlike Brady, he's amping up his socially moderate cred to appeal to the collar (e.g., voting yes on civil unions.)

                  Brady, of course, was also no moderate, and it's that that really saved Quinn's ass -- suburban moderates voted for Kirk without hesitation, but couldn't do the same for Brady. The drop-offs you observe between Kirk and Brady in the collar are partially attributable to Kirk's base being the North Shore, but nonetheless.

                  Not to mention, I don't doubt that Jason Plummer was a drag on the ticket. Man, that guy was dumb. I'll actually somewhat heartened if the GOP is dumb enough to nominate that guy for IL-12.

                  Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

                  by jeffmd on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:50:07 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Don't I recall (0+ / 0-)

                    that Topinka is a bit of a nutcase? I feel like she ran hard right in 2006.

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 03:31:21 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think she was just trying to be the Anti-Rod. (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Setsuna Mudo, andgarden, MichaelNY

                      And it almost would have worked, but no Republican was going to get elected in Illinois in 2006. People dumped their anti-Rod votes on the Green Party guy, Rich Whitney.

                      Topinka overall is fairly moderate; she's (one of) the GOPers I voted for last year. She's been around for awhile though, so I'm skeptical that she'll move up. Rutherford, Kinzinger, and Schock are the rising stars; Kirk, I would say, is the "dean" of the IL GOP.

                      Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

                      by jeffmd on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:03:49 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

          •  Oh hey... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            my state rep. Barbara Flynn Currie signed on as a cosponsor of gay marriage a few weeks ago! :)

            Now it just needs to make it to the Senate before I graduate so I can nag Kwame Raoul too!

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:10:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  BFC (yes, I like initialing 3-named pols) (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

              I'm not surprised she's a co-sponsor. She's always been a champion of progressive causes. I'd be surprised if Raoul didn't support the marriage bill; he was a very prominent proponent of civil unions...I don't see this breaking down because we're now calling it marriage.

              My own state Rep. is Sara Feigenholtz, so I'm taking her support for marriage equality pretty much for granted. My state Sen. is John Cullerton the Senate president, so I'm pretty sure he'll be a co-sponsor as well. (Plus, he's the one that puts the bill up for a vote!)

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-05.

              by jeffmd on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:01:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  yeah, BFC and Raoul are both pretty liberal (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

                it would have been Sam Arora-level surprising if either weren't strongly for us on this issue.

                Still, there's a certain satisfaction I derive from actually seeing them on the cosponsors list.

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:05:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Is there any movement in Hawaii? (4+ / 0-)

      Even with the Republicans hiding in Democrats' clothing, we should still be able to repeal the ban.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:53:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  what I heard about polling in OR (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      supercereal, MichaelNY

      the pro-equality side is about where no on 36 was in 2004.  The anti-equality side has lost 10-12 points since then.  I think that's somewhat encouraging, since voting against a ban isn't the same as voting for marriage equality, but still disappointing it hasn't moved more in 8 years.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 04:41:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI-02 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, askew, MichaelNY

    in addition to Bob Marx and Esther Kia'aina, they also left out Rafael del Castillo, another attorney. (He's not making a big splash in the race, but neither are Marx and Kia'aina...)

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:27:05 AM PST

    •  I guess it now comes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, James Allen

      down to which is the "lesser of two evils". Do we want Hanneman, who is sticking to his bigoted stances or Gabbard, who has had a "conversion" and is it possible to trust, said conversion.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:30:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (4+ / 0-)

        as I've said before, I think Gabbard is the lesser of two evils. With her there's a chance her conversion is real, but Hannemann is 100% guaranteed to be a homophobe.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:33:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hanneman. (0+ / 0-)

        At least we know where he stands, and we know he's a good Democrat on other issues. That may be hollow comfort to the LGBTQE caucus but I think if push came to shove Gabbard would be every inch the bigot Hannemen is, and if you can't trust someone, you can't trust them on anything. A liar is a liar. I would prefer Hanneman.

        (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:34:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah but (7+ / 0-)

          even if there was reason to suspect that she was a stealth bigot to begin with, I still think Gabbard would get Sam Arora'd if she turned her back on us. Whereas with Hannemann, any progressive opposition to him is already baked into the equation, and no one can get angry at him for lying.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:36:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know if Arora is an exact comparison (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            If this district had activists like Arora's district apparently does, the front-runners wouldn't be Hannemann and Gabbard in the first place!  Gabbard's given progressive-sounding statements about social issues, but she's hardly campaigning for gay marriage and I seriously doubt that she's going to co-sponsor it, as Arora did.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:43:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It might not be an exact comparison (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

              but remember, part of the anger at Arora is because he lied. While the stereotype of politicians as slimy and duplicitous may be universal, no one wants to corroborate that image. Even for other interest groups (like, say, labor), it might be a red flag: "Hm, she just backstabbed the LGBT groups. That doesn't affect us directly, sure, but did we also get lied to?"

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:58:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Even if her conversion (5+ / 0-)

          isn't "real", I don't think she'd be stupid enough to go back on it. It would probably influence a primary challenge. Of course it's possible her conversion is real.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:37:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Honestly (4+ / 0-)

            my biggest fear with Gabbard isn't that she votes against us, it's that she drags her feet and doesn't fight for us. To use an example, if the Respect for Marriage Act (DOMA repeal) ever came to the House floor, I think she would vote for it and he wouldn't, but she wouldn't be out on the streets clamoring for its passage, either.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:39:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Where is this primary challenger now? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            If they could beat an incumbent on social issues (to be more precise, if the district has the potential for a campaign like that, and if there is a candidate who could take advantage of it), then they could probably be doing well in this primary already.  

            Is there some reason to think HI-02 has a strong, politically-engaged, well-connected activist community that is just sitting this primary out for some reason?

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:46:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm no Hawai'i expert (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

              but it's possible that said activist community is buying into Tulsi's shtick and is at least silently supporting her, no?

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:59:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  HI-02--Tulsi has no path to victory (0+ / 0-)

              I think activists are stretched thin in HI.  Everyone is running, right down to dog catcher; it seems since redistricting that nearly everyone has at least one primary challenger.  In HI-02 we should not forget that there are FIVE candidates.  Why the Honolulu Advertiser polled only for two only serves Mufi's interest. Their methodology was questionable to say the least (see below comment) and they have endorsed the former Honolulu mayor before.  Tulsi has no possible path to victory;  there is so much flying around on her among Progressive and LGBTQS activists including Xenocrypts well researched pieces, and her voting record as Tulsi Tamayo  in the state house shows that she voted against emergency contraceptives to be given at private hospitals even in the case of rape.  Besides that she has alienated her previous base of religious conservatives who for sure will go with Mufi now!  

              Marx is locked out because after Tulsi he has raised the most cash and is the greatest threat to the Mufi Machine.  The minute Marx polls within a few points of Tulsi, those who settled for the bogus frame perpetuated by the Mufi Machine that this is a two person race and we must settle for the jingoistic reconstructed Tulsi will ditch her and unite behind the only candidate that can beat Mufi.  Bob Marx from Big Island where nearly 35% of the votes will come from and he has been advertising for 30 years. And that's why Mr. Marx was left out of the poll.

              •  Bob Marx was an Oregon state rep (0+ / 0-)

                He has no credentials in office in Hawaii.

                If he is a serious candidate with nearly 200k of fundraising, then he should be able to run at least some "internal polls".

                The release of an internal poll is a standard way to make the media take them seriously.

                Marx has not released such a poll. It means that either he doesn't have the smarts to do one, or the numbers from such a poll show no serious support.

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 09:12:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  If she will vote with us (7+ / 0-)

          I don't care if her conversion is genuine.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 04:43:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'd still go for Hannemann (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        simply because he's got 30 years on Gabbard and thus is likely to be out of the House a lot sooner.  Gabbard could stick around a lot longer and may even outlast the next two US Senators (soon to be Hirono and probably Hanabusa too when Inouye quits), and conceivably make a run for even higher office.

        I'd like to see Gabbard's career take a solid defeat now.  Maybe she'd come back some years later a little more convincing in her "conversion".

        •  She seems rather ambitious. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          I'd imagine she'd run in 2016, if Inouye retired. Of course Hanabusa would run and would have establishment support. Hanneman would also, no doubt, try to move up. I'm still confused as to why, not a single legislator jumped in. There's a wide open slot for an Asian-American.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:24:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Arkansas filing opens this week (8+ / 0-)

    Democrats expect to file in 26 Senate districts, Republicans in 25. That's for the Senate. For the House, it's likely to be 70 Democrats and 65 Republicans.

    The big question for Congress is who, if anybody, challenges Tim Griffin.

    •  Anything else to report, chief? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

      You've been away for a bit.

      Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:48:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I take it Beebe will (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        give his all towards keeping both majorities as you said he wants to guard his legacy.

        Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

        by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:50:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nobody wants to be known in Arkansas as the (5+ / 0-)

          Democrat who lost control over the legislature. Dustin McDaniel also has a vested interest in trying to hold it, because he wants to be governor.

          Anything else interesting - Uh, the fiscal session started in Arkansas last Monday, which is a big deal for the legislature. Republicans are talking about pushing it to the far right, and Democrats in the Senate are once again standing up to the Democrats in the House in doing the right thing. The Speaker of the House will be elected at the end of the fiscal session. Democrats have Darren Williams from Little Rock and Republicans Terry Rice of Waldron. Williams should easily win, since Democrats currently have the majority. Democrats have already elected Larry Teague as the next President Pro Tempore of the Senate. An interesting thing - in the last four years, the amount of Senate Democrats supporting some kind of civil unions has surged from four to nine. Even Arkansas is on its way.

          I could talk about individual candidate announcements, but I won't.

          •  Why not, secret stuff in the cards that you can't (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

            give out?

            Best of luck to you all.  Make sure that 2010 was nothing but a fluke.

            Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

            by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:58:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Haha, no. (6+ / 0-)

              It's just a lot of boring candidate announcements that I don't think people would be that interested in. I try to post the best ones.

              Thanks for the good luck. I'll probably be in Arkansas all summer and into the fall and I hope it turns out good. At the very least, I'm hoping to reset the strategy for Mark Pryor and the 2014 team. Arkansas is unique in that there is a future for the Democratic Party. There's growing business of Conway, Jonesboro, and Fayetteville. Unlike Alabama, this state will never be lost for a century.

              As I look through the financial disclosure reports for January and early February, one thing caught my eye. You may remember Gary Stubblefield, the Republican running in a potential Democratic pickup district who had to be coaxed into running by Mark Darr, the Lieutenant Governor. He raised $17.80 through December of 2011. As you said then, he couldn't have bought a hard back book with that. Now he's up to $1,169. Which is a gazillion less than any other candidate for the Senate. Fingers crossed he keeps this fundraising up.

  •  I have a crazy good MD gerrymander coming up (7+ / 0-)

    expect it tomorrow

    Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 11:48:53 AM PST

    •  It'll satisfy Sarbanes and Dutch (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8

      gives a small chunk of Montgomery County to Donna Edwards like she wanted, etc.

      Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:01:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The PG County machine won't be happy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        but you can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

        Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

        by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:14:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As long as most of PG is kept together (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          (with the exception of College Park which Hoyer needs) I don't see why the PG County machine would be too mad.  Unless you're planning something really crazy, like hooking up PG with parts of the Eastern Shore.

          •  Yeah, that's what I'm doing. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            It's very good at making MD-01 blue.  Of course only a part of the county is going with the eastern shore.  however, I divided the Eastern Shore and had the southern parts of it stretch from Ocean City to Ann Arundel County and parts of PG County.

            Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

            by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:29:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  How strong is the PG County machine? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            Will they get every PG Co legislator to oppose any giving of part of the county to a southern Eastern Shore-Annapolis district?

            Donna Edwards would support my map as it gives her most of Silver Spring in MontCo so she won't be going out on a limb against my drawing (unless she wants much more than that).

            Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

            by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:33:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Just me (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, James Allen

    Or has the last week been really shitty with regard to polling?

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 12:24:02 PM PST

  •  WI-Gov: Not unexpected, AFSCME (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, David Nir

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:16:41 PM PST

  •  4th straight poll says MI tight (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, LordMike

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:32:22 PM PST

  •  From PPP (9+ / 0-)

    Santorum is probably going to be crushing Romney in Washington state.  Favorability ratings (among Republicans of course) are 69/18, and 47/42 respectively.  Those are dismal numbers for Romney, and similar to what he was polling at in Minnesota and Missouri.  Those are almost Gingrich-level numbers among Republicans.

  •  Holy-freaking-crap (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bumiputera

    how did I miss this back in 2010? Did anyone else miss this?


    Mr. Walker has issued a sixty-eight page jobs plan, here is page one:
    Scott's Plan to Make Wisconsin a Top Ten State for Job Creators

    ONE OF THE KEYS TO THE

    Yes, the whole thing is in thirty-six point type. A later page has exactly thirteen words on it:
    WE MUST LOWER THE HEAVY TAX BURDEN THAT PREVENTS BUSINESSES FROM INVESTING IN
    You can read Mr. Walker's entire sixty-eight page jobs proposal aloud in about four-and-a-half minutes. Actually less, I forgot page fifty-five which consists entirely of the words
    INVEST IN INFRASTRUCTURE
    And I shouldn't have counted the three half-page photos.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 01:45:57 PM PST

  •  Who do you guys think (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, LordMike, MichaelNY

    would better to face in the General Election, Romney or Santorum?

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:01:25 PM PST

    •  Romney will be more beatable (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, LordMike

      Should the economy stutter. Should the current trajectory continue I think Obama would beat Santorum by a bigger margin.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:06:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Romney (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, SLDemocrat, LordMike, bfen

      I've been saying for months now, even back in October and November, that Romney is my preferred candidate.  I've had a variety of reasons I've wanted him to be the nominee (which I've wanted to put into a diary that I started in mid-December but never got to finish >___< ).  However, I believe he would do more long-lasting damage to the party.  To put my sentiments shortly, Gingrich and Santorum would be far more devastating in the short-term, but following their losses the party would be able to try and rebuild itself from there.  If Romney is the nominee, they might do just a little better with downballot races, but they'll still get trounced very badly.  The added benefit is that the Tea Party and conservative wing of the party will be infuriated that the establishment got their way with Romney and will blame the establishment for their failure, leading them to be likely to nominate an even further right candidate in 2016.  That should probably work out very nicely for Brian Schweitzer. /bias  I'll try to get my diary done on this if:

      A.)  I can juggle my schoolwork and debate districts work for this week

      B.)  Finish this goddamn Senate analysis that's taken two months to work on

      I'm frustrated again because I meant to work on this stuff this weekend and all my time went by again.  So frustrating. >.<

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

      by AndySonSon on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:17:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Santorum of course (5+ / 0-)

      but the difference isn't as large as I thought it would be due to Romney's implosion among moderates and independents.  Maybe only a few point difference now in electability versus what I would have estimated as a 10 point or more difference in the past, and the polls seem to bear this out.

      Fortunately, I don't think Santorum has really set himself up to capitalize on this with anyone who isn't already a far right conservative.  Either way, there is a real possibility of a double digit Obama win if things continue like this.

      I think Romney would go into the general election a disliked and easily ignored mediocre GOP candidate.  Santorum on the other hand would be something on the level of Christine O'Donnell becoming a nominee for US Senate.  It would do lasting damage to the Republican Party.  Santorum is a joke.

      •  Santorum (5+ / 0-)

        I wouldn't say he's a joke. Most of his arguments are more or less intellectually coherent, given his premises. His problem is that his views on social and foreign policy are way, way out of the mainstream and he would probably scare a lot of low-intensity Dem leaners who might have been apathetic toward an Obama-Romney race into voting. People might not be impressed with Romney, but he doesn't scare anyone.

        I think Santorum is basically the right-wing equivalent of McGovern in 1972.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 03:44:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I co-sign Skaje on his every word here (5+ / 0-)

        The one big thing I'll add is that Santorum has image and campaign infrastructure problems that Romney would never have.

        The fact is the lion's share of the electorate at least views Romney as closer to the ideological center than Santorum, and that matters in a Presidential election because voting behavior is more ideological in a Presidential than for any other office.  Santorum is viewed as extreme, and frankly a lot of the GOP establishment country club set recognize this is how the general electorate views him...it's not lost on them that he lost in as big a blowout as he suffered because of that, not simply because of the Democratic wave.

        This problem for Santorum dovetails into his campaign problem, which is that few people take him seriously enough to give him money or other support.  So he wins the hearts of the GOP rank-and-file to win the nomination, great for him, but that doesn't solve the problem.  You can see the talk of a contested convention as an illustration that they don't think much of him and won't support him as the nominee.  He's going to have fundraising and field struggles, and he'll end up raising no more than McCain did, I bet considerably less.  The polling goes south in a hurry vs. Obama, and even a lot of conservative activists who like him second-guess taking time to knock on doors or phone-bank for him.  Everything becomes harder.

        Romney is just a lot more likely to hold his own.  The GOP establishment will back him fully as soon as he wraps it up, but they're impatient with him for struggling so badly vs. these jokers.  Still, they consider him acceptable and won't really demand someone else.  Even if he looks doomed in the summer, they'll figure he can still make a respectable showing and prevent downballot disaster...and I suspect on that point they could ultimately be right.

        I just think in the final couple months before the election, Obama would pull away from Santorum and really bury him badly.  That's just harder to do vs. Romney, no matter what the comparative polling says now or even in the summer.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:21:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Santorum, by far (5+ / 0-)

      Romney won't take a solid position on a controversial issue at gunpoint.

      Santorum will take an idiotic solid position on issues decided 50 years ago.

      Romney will lose in part because he "is not conservative enough", a Mormon and flip-flopper.  
      Santorum will lose because he is a right wing Republican extremist.

      I want to run against the extremist.  This will lead to the nation rejecting the extremist ideology and give Obama cover to support marriage equality, a public option, and much more.  Santorum offers an oportunity for a much more progressive agenda to be endorsed by the country.

      Romney will lose because he will come off as an entitled ass.
      Santorum will lose because his political positions will repulse the majority of Americans.

      (Smaller point, Romney not being nominated will make Mormons lean a bit more Democratic as some will see they are rejected as a people by the GOP.)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:57:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think your last parenthetical is totally wrong (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, MichaelNY

        Everything above that last parenthetical looks about right, but Mormons aren't going to budge an inch.  They already know they share a party with anti-Mormon bigots, and they don't care because they're deeply conservative and that dictates their choice of party.  Especially when Romney being a Mormon is a non-issue in why he's really being rejected, that he loses isn't going to budge Mormons at all.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:26:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think a lot of Mormons are more in the (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

          traditional conservative camp than the populist or libertarian camp, and I think that's why Matheson is able to survive, for example.  Traditional conservatives are the new moderate, see John Danforth.  I think if many Republicans became more openly hostile to Mormons, they would lose quite a few, though obviously not the majority.  Where Republicans are openly hostile to racial minorities, the interests of those groups and the dominant ideologies among them still make a majority more aligned with Democrats, which isn't true at all for many Mormons, who are quite authentic conservatives and generally more well to do than the average.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:59:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But no one is "more openly hostile to Mormons" (5+ / 0-)

            Romney hasn't really gotten much if any flack about being Mormon.  His problems are entirely because he's a complete phony.  Being a Mormon is a trivial aside.

            There hasn't otherwise been any unfavorable spotlight on Mormonism.

            I think the references to Romney being Mormon are much overstated, that doesn't matter nearly as much to nearly as many voters, even in the GOP, as some political junkies think.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:15:07 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Therein a key reason we see this race differently (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              Mormonism is critical to Romney's poor performance.

              Romney is an asshole.
              Paul is a crazy asshole.
              Newt is a mega-asshole.
              Santorum is a Christian asshole.
              Evangelical voters have gravitated to the latter.

              If Romney was a Protestant we'd all have stopped typing about this race a month ago.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:37:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Of course they will budge an inch (0+ / 0-)

          but how much "a bit" is won't matter that much to anyone except maybe Matheson.

          Mormons do have a lot of things not in common with the Republican base, and are loathed by other parts of the base locally (not a lot of warmth between the Idaho Christian survivalists and the Mormons.)  This doesn't translate to them loving Obama, but it might translate to folks like Matheson getting a half percent more or something like that.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:03:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, itskevin

      Santorum brings some real strengths against Obama's greatest weaknesses (working poor whites), but Romney will always be considered a "moderate" even if he's not.  It's a very tough call.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 03:10:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think this is all so misguided (6+ / 0-)

        Some of the discussion sometimes reads as if this is the first election ever.

        Obama won in '08, he's the Democratic nominee again,
        and the right question is who can take away Obama '08 voters?

        These working poor whites who voted for a liberal black guy from Chicago with a funny name over a well-liked white male war hero and experienced pol named "John McCain," are not going to prefer Santorum over Romney vs. Obama in '12.  The working poor whites who do, are the ones who voted for McCain last time.

        Obama in '08 already underperformed by Democratic standards with blue-collar whites.  There were swaths of the country where he did clearly worse than any Democratic nominee since Mondale, and those voters were blue-collar whites.

        There's very little left to lose, except for swing voters who aren't going to vote for Santorum when they wouldn't vote for Romney.

        A lot of what's happening now is some people on DKE seem sincerely unaware of Santorum's liabilities.  This is no different from Newt in December, when some people here seemed very unaware of his liabilities.  The fact is Santorum would tank quickly under the general election spotlight, it would get ugly fast.  The GOP establishment knows this, that's why all the chatter is if Rick wins Michigan, find someone else or hope Romney can right the ship...there is no talk of supporting Rick.  Only Romney in that bunch of clowns can slow or stop his own bleeding.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:47:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wish I knew more about how Obama did (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          among voters who were white, low-income, and non-college-graduate.  He did better with low-income whites than high-income whites, at least by CNN's exit poll, and also did better with college-graduate whites than non-college graduate whites.   My sense is that high-income, non-college graduate whites are very conservative, so that might skew things.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:11:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'd be even more curious to see (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            how he did in certain states. Even someone as optimistic as me realizes there's a certain type of voter that just isn't ever going to vote for a Democratic nominee for president and that a considerable number of them live in a particular part of the country.

        •  Were you referring to any areas in partcular (0+ / 0-)

          besides those in Appalachia?

          •  The Ozarks and Deep South, too (0+ / 0-)

            I recall sometime post-election in late 2008 or sometime in 2009 seeing a map that depicted by different colors how Obama performed in various parts of the country compared to previous Dem nominees, or maybe it was just compared to Kerry, I don't remember for sure.

            There was a contiguous swath of red extending from western Pennsylvania all the way down through Appalachia, then heading westward across the South through Oklahoma.

            I am quite confident that given that blue-collar whites never identified personally with Obama at all, that whoever among them voted for him in '08 over McCain are not going to vote against him in '12 in favor of Santorum.  If any of them flip, and some are swing voters who would if unhappy with Obama, they are a lot more likely to flip to Romney than Santorum, and even then only if the economy turns south again this year pre-election.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 11:54:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Why are people so sure that Rick Santorum (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, Setsuna Mudo, askew, MichaelNY

        is strong with "working-class whites" or whatever?  Is it off of trial heats?

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:01:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That kind of seems plausible, but even if (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

        it is true, the better question is, how many other types of people run from Santorum as if he were carrying Ebola?

    •  Santorum (5+ / 0-)

      I just don't see how he wins Florida, for example. Or New Hampshire. Or Nevada.

      He's unelectable.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 03:32:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Better in what sense? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Easier to beat?  Santorum.

      Better for the country?  Romney.

    •  That's very, very easy: Santorum. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

      I could describe a scenario where Romney actually does worse than Santorum, but I like sure things, and an Obama-Santorum match up is about as sure as you can get. It would be an epic disaster for the Republicans, almost certainly helping us keep the Senate if not make gains and probably swinging the House in out direction, perhaps in a big way. The trouble could even extend down to the state and local level, depending on how bad it gets.

    •  Santorum. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, bumiputera

      We would beat either. But Romney will be beaten by personal attacks. Santorum will be beaten because of his extreme views. Romney's defeat will be humiliating for him, but the rest of the GOP will survive. Santorum's defeat will be a referendum on GOP extremism and could force the party to moderate its image.

  •  Missouri caucuses update (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, KingofSpades, JGibson

    they'll be holding county caucuses on 4 days in a 9 day period

    110 counties will go on March 17th.

    2 small counties go on March 15th and 16th

    Jackson County and St. Louis City/County go on March 24th

    What a cluster.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:16:53 PM PST

    •  the March 17/24 split (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      March 24th counties cast 32% of all votes on February 7th. Santorum won those counties by a 63/37 H2H margin over Romney, but didn't top 64.2% in any of the jurisdictions. Santorum won 70/30 in the rest of the state.

      Santorum won 68.5/31.5 H2H over Romney. So the difference was good for only a 1.5% drop. Which means that Romney would have to not get blown out by March 17th to salvage himself on March 24th.

      Just a coincidence that these postponements happened after Santorum won Missouri.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:35:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Santorum's aide has freudian slip: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, DrPhillips, bfen, MichaelNY

    Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 02:41:41 PM PST

  •  McCain said Babeu was a friend who should be (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    given the benefit of the doubt.

    I guess this will make McCain flip-flop on the friendship:
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 03:14:10 PM PST

    •  well (8+ / 0-)

      he won't have to worry about meeting women working as a vet.

      Although in all seriousness, it's always nice to read of someone leaving politics to go into an industry that doesn't involve lobbying. And even better if it's one that they had worked in before getting into office.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 04:43:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        with the caveat that I don't really see anything wrong with former elected officials trying to use their clout in a constructive direction.  I've been told it's actually pretty hard to become a vet.  As my friend said,
         

        Comparatively few universities having veterinary schools that offer degrees which are accredited to qualify the graduates as registered vets. In the United States, only 28 universities offer a degree meeting American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) standards,[6] in Canada, only 5 veterinary schools offer a vet qualifying course and in the United Kingdom only 7 universities offer a suitable degree.
        Due to this scarcity of places for veterinary degrees, admission to veterinary school is highly competitive and requires extensive preparation. The likelihood of acceptance is not in favour of the applicant. In the United States in 2007, approximately 5,750 applicants competed for the 2,650 seats in the 28 accredited veterinary schools, with an acceptance rate of 46%.
        Ever since then, that's been about the most impressive thing I knew about John Ensign.  I never really understood why he was considered a Presidential prospect, even before his scandal, but he was a vet.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 05:46:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  More (5+ / 0-)
          He insists veterinary medicine is where his heart is.
          "I loved being in the Senate. That was a wonderful experience. But I'm putting as much passion into this as I did that, and so I'm really enjoying it. And the other nice thing is being home every night, you know, seeing my wife and kids every day," Ensign said.

          Ensign is still with his wife, Darlene, and says they're doing "great" -- healing after his extramarital affair with Cynthia Hampton, a longtime friend and employee, led to his political downfall.

          That's actually sweet.  I hope he's doing well, really.  There's more to life than being a Senator.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 05:59:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Kurt Schrader was once our veterinarian. (8+ / 0-)

      I think Ensign has fallen harder than Charlie Crist.  People still seem to think Crist might have a political future.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 05:00:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Took a daytrip to DC today on Amtrak Acela Express (7+ / 0-)

    And while I was getting off the train in DC Union Station, I nearly bumped into Sonia Sotomayor who was on the same train as I was! To my surprise, Sotomayor was traveling in Business class- Although I would say that she seems like the justice who most likely would do so...

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 05:13:07 PM PST

  •  HI-02: detailed comments to Xenocrypt's latest (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    diary -- see the comments by users Sam Ketsu and  Shliapnikov .

    I haven't decided what I feel about the two diary-length comments, but they provide interesting insights into the "Science of Identity" foundation.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 05:16:19 PM PST

    •  HI-02 Honolulu poll bogus methodology (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      Not only were many candidates left out of the poll, but the only neighbor island candidate, Bob Marx was ignored by the poll commissioned by the Honolulu star advertiser. The neighbor islands represent over 60 percent of the traditional democratic primary electorate yet 71 percent of the responds came from Oahu including the Kailua zip code weighted heavy with devotees of the Gabbards Guru.   I am quite certain Marx would have polled competitively with Tulsi since just days earlier civil beat reported he was first out with TV ads and had already spent 200,000 plus on the race.  The big isle were Marx has advertised for thirty years represents more than 30 percent of the electorate. Why the lockout.  What interest does the paper have in promoting the narrative that this is a two person race between two Honolulu politicians that do not reside in the district?  Of course we know that the Paper has endorsed Mufi before.

      •  Can you provide the cross-tabs? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Furtheron, Setsuna Mudo

        If you can substantiate what you're saying, that would be a big hit to the credibility of Ward Research.

        I didn't see any such info in the linked article.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:25:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Cross tabs, HI-02 bogus poll (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          The Honolulu Star Advetiser article on the poll stating clearly they polled 71 percent Oahu residents thou 60 percent of likely dem primary voters are side on Neighbor Islands. It is a pay to play newspaper.  But I spent the nity nine cents after reading Marx's  press release.  The numbers below are cut and pasted if you don't want to sign up and read the poll yourselves.  
               http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

          Island
          Oahu     71%
          Maui    8
          Lnai    <1
          Molokai     1
          Hawaii (Big Island)    16
          Kauai    4

          For a summary of voter turn out for the primary election of 2010 you can visit.  
          http://hawaii.gov/...
          And plainly see that neighbor isles are more than 60 percent of the electorate.  Am I missing something here?  Or is this Bogus.

          •  Are you (or perhaps the Advertiser) mixing data? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            If I'm understanding correctly, Ward Research also asked about the Senate race in the same poll. It's a common practice.

            That's why I asked for the cross-tabs, something like http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
            -- in this same poll PPP also asked about the Presidential race, popularity of gay marriage, etc.

            While I appreciate the time and investment that you made to copy the data from the Star Advertiser, it is insufficient info. Without the raw data, there is no knowing if data between polls have been mixed, and at what level.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:25:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Mixing data? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo

              The poll makes no mention of any statewide races.  But it sure seems like they weighed the second district respondents as if it was a statewide.  
               Would ward polling have more Indepth numbers available for public consumption.

              •  That's the question I have for you (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo

                Without numbers in depth, to the level I suggest from the PPP link to their most recent HI poll, there's no way to know if it was an error by you, an error in reporting by the Star Advertiser, an error in polling methods by Ward, or misconduct of some sort.

                Without that data, there is no substantive way to back up your suggestion that the poll is "bogus" or poorly weighted.

                FYI, the Ward poll of the statewide Senate race was reported here http://thehill.com/... .

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:34:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Bogus Poll in Hawaii-02 (0+ / 0-)

                  Without any further information I have to go by the fact that the Honolulu Advertiser reported that 71 Percent of the respondents were from Oahu.  Why would I Think that they would misreport who they Polled?  It is in print below their column.  I should assume that the paper reports accurately who the poll was directed at.  How that sample is supposed to be Representative of Hawaii's second district is beyond me.

                  •  Oahu is 71% of Hawaii, population-wise (0+ / 0-)

                    It's clear that you're talking about a statewide poll of some sort.

                    The Ward research poll was done statewide for the Senate race. HI-02 was most likely done as a subset. Cross-tabs would show such numbers.

                    You have not presented such cross-tabs.

                    Therefore, I conclude that you don't know what you're talking about.

                    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                    by tietack on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 09:16:00 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  OR st house (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, supercereal, GradyDem

    Democrats will have a contested primary in the open HD 12, which is Springfield's district.  Former mayor John Lively will face Sandra Mann, who i think I read is a nurse.

    Steve Newgard will face Brent Barton as the Republican's recruit.  Whereas Brent is an Ivy League educated lawyer, and former state rep of the neighboring 51st district (winning when it was R+2), Newgard seems to have some college at OSU but no degree, and work in building materials.  I don't say that as a judgment, I just noticed that will be quite a distinction between them.  This district is now D+3, based in Oregon City and Gladstone.

    John Nordbye will likely be the Democratic candidate in HD 52, which is and will still be D+1.  He's an educator and former principal, but it looks like he was in eastern Portland, not in a school primarily in this district (which barely touches upon Portland's eastern suburbs).

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 05:36:54 PM PST

  •  dammit. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, sawolf

    I'm really enjoying this PBS piece on Clinton, then Dick Morris comes on and says some crap.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:42:03 PM PST

  •  Oh no she di'int (5+ / 0-)

    In Kansas, even a Democrat can be viciously homophobic. Long-time state Rep. Janice "Jan" Pauls of Hutchinson, the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, who voted for a bill that nullifies all local anti-discrimination ordinances (ending the civil partnership registry in Lawrence, but also the local laws banning housing or job discrimination against LGBTs) is one such person.

    She apparently thinks it's cool if businesses refuse to serve gay customers, too ... as long as they have a religious reason for doing so. That makes it ok.

    Any bets on how long it would take a Kansas evangelical to invent some scriptural justification for not letting the gays sit at the lunch counter?

    The ugh is here: http://www.kansasequalitycoalition.org/...

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

    by arealmc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:51:25 PM PST

    •  Of course, that's not limited to Kansas (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, Lidem89, MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo

      Look at the venom spewed by NY State Sen. Ruben Diaz or MD Delegate Emmett Burns.

      Still, it's disgusting. Hard to believe these people call themselves Democrats. And it's hurtful enough when they come from red districts, but don't even get me started on the homophobes in safe districts.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:03:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  you guys aren't staying up late enough for me thes (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Setsuna Mudo, supercereal

    days.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 12:03:25 AM PST

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