Early Michigan Delegate breakdown
The Republican delegate allocation process, as I believe you are soon going to learn, is incredibly frustrating. This will become even more important as the contests move along but Michigan is a very good place to start. As of this moment Mitt Romney has cut decently into Rick Santorum’s previous lead and it is possible that he might ultimately end winning the popular vote in Michigan, but as we will soon learn, Most of the Republican Delegates are award on a Congressional District level and in Michigan that means a likely stalemate. Two delegates will be awarded to the state winner and two for the winner of each of Michigan’s 14 districts. Based on that public policy polling it is likely that Santorum will win the 1st, 2nd3, 4th and 6th and
Romney seems to be a sure bet in the 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th,and 14th. While it seems that the 5th, 7th, 8th, and 10th are to close to call at this stage. If you had to predict to day, I would Romney wins 3 out of 5 contest including the statewide contest, netting the impressive some of two delegates out of Michigan.
What this means for Operation Hilarity Folks.
What is particular interesting for operation hilarity fans is that besides the 11th all of Romney’s likely victory districts are held by Democrats, and the 13th and 14th, are not just held by Democrats, but are very Democratic. The 13th might be one of the most Democratic district, in the country, while the 14th is not far off. It might also seem that Ron Paul, not Rick Santorum is a better bet to pick off a win in the 13th. The 13th will likely see less than 15,000 votes cast, but will count exactly the same as the statewide margin which could see almost a million votes. If you were looked for a targeted way to keep delegates out of Mitt Romney’s hands the 13th district is your best place and the better candidate to vote for based on the polling seems to be Ron Paul.
As I will outline later there are an incredible number of numerical markers which can shift delegate allocation by significant margins which have nothing to do with who wins and loses a particular state but can plan an incredibly large role in the outcome of the race. A very small number of shifted votes may ultimately make a huge difference. As a first round, Ron Paul in the Michigan 13th is a probably more likely change point, than Rick Santorum statewide. [Ron Paul was down 10 in the Detroit area code writ large no break down from the particular parts of the district] The bigger point is to look for smaller attacks rather big home run plays as they can add up overtime to keeping all of the Republican candidates under the magic number of 1144, which is clearly what we best from a Democratic perspective. This we are now in our largest contest break of the cycle, [and second longest overall] it is best to get the ducks in a row for the slog ahead if we want to influence the R process, in a numerical and not just a comical way.