Skip to main content

District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This is a pretty balanced district. The lines didn’t change much in redistricting. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf since before I was born. The northern district is marginally more Republican as it contains Roseau County.
Senate: Safe D with Stumpf, toss-up if open.
House A: Lean R with Fabian, toss-up if open
House B: Toss-up with or without Kiel

District 2: This is essentially the Bemidji district. Two senators live there: Skoe, and surprise freshman Carlson. Skoe is a Peterson clone, and comes from the conservative part of this district. Head-to-head, I would put serious money on Skoe. There is a decent Republican contingency at the southern fringe of this district, which could potentially provide for an appealing move from Representative Hancock from 2A to 2B, as he lives in the much more Democratic 2A.
Senate: Likely D with Skoe vs. Carlson. Safe D with just  Skoe. Lean D with just Carlson. Likely D if open
House A: Likely D
House B: Toss-up

District 3: The first of the Iron Range districts. Dill, Murphy and Bakk are as safe as can be.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. 4A is likely one of the most Democratic house districts outside of the Iron Range or in outstate Minnesota. The Republicans do have a decent incumbent in Lanning. She would be well advised to move outside of the city limits to 4B, because even she wouldn’t have a prayer in 4A.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Lean R with Lanning, Lean D if open.
District 5: The amalgam district. 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively NOT. This will be contested on both sides in both districts. The courts are saying that Persell lives in 5A, but I have to image he would run in 4A. If he does that, I will likely be working for McElfatrick’s opponent, depending on where people end up running, this is all pending who throws their hat in where. On the senate side, Saxhaug is not in serious trouble. But with Cass County, it can’t be considered 100% safe.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Toss-up (who knows who the candidates are)
House B: Likely D

District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. These seats won’t even be contested.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

Disdtrict 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco, and the hub of the Iron Range
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D

District 8: Amy Klobuchar lost this district. That is all you really need to know. Only action will be in the primary, as a couple members were double bunked.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
 House B: Safe R

District 9: This district didn’t really exist before. But it is quite Republican. Although there have been DFLers to win races here
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Safe R

District 10: Another new district: This is a really marginal one. With Aitkin leaning D, and Crow Wing leaning R. The Republicans have a strong incumbent senator, and the DFL has a strong incumbent House member (in the more Republican of the districts). With the open district being incredibly marginal, this could end up with a Republican senator and two DFL house members.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely D
House B: Toss-up

District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County, and have a fairly strong incumbent in Pine County (Hilty). 11B may look like a juicy target for Republicans, but it is likely fool’s gold. Republican Roger Crawford lives here, but the area he represents currently is not in this district. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if he takes his game a couple miles away and runs in the 15th instead of facing a legacy incumbent like Hilty. Then again, Hilty is old. I met the guy, and I firmly believe he will be carried out of St. Paul feet first.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Likely D with Hilty, Lean D without.

District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson Country.  Currently the Republicans have a couple good incumbents, and I don’t see them losing. The DFL could be competitive 12A if open, but not really in 12 B.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Safe R

District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud. This should be Republican turf, and for the most part it is. However there is a guy by the name of Larry Hosch that doesn’t believe it, and he wins in spite of this. He is young, aggressive, and an 8 year incumbent despite being the ripe old age of 34. This is the man that will likely run to replace Peterson when he retires. When that happens 13A will be almost a certain Republican pickup, but not until that point.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Likely D with Hosch, Likely R without
House B: Safe R

District 14: Republicans are not going to be pleased with this. Republicans pray and pray that St. Cloud will be diluted among the local Republican areas. That didn’t happen. 14A is essentially St. Cloud, and is a prime pickup opportunity for team blue, but there is a freshman Republican there. 14 B is a tougher nut to crack, as is the senate district (but not unheard of, as one Tarryl Clark held a seat very similar to this).

Senate: Likely R without Clark, Toss-up with Clark
House A: Toss-up
House B: Likely R

District 15: This is a Republican area, and I doubt the DFL even contests either of the house districts or senate district.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 16: This is basically a Minnesota River Valley district, and it really can’t be compared to the old districts, so it’s basically new. 16 A is ancestrally DFL, but is represented by a Republican. Marty Siefert represented this area for a while, so it is certainly not adverse to Republicans. It is, however, represented in the senate by 3-term DFLer  Kulby, and freshman GOP senator Dahms. The senate race will certainly be a battle royale. It is not unreasonable to think this results in a DFL senator and two GOP representatives
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R

District 17: The north side of the Minnesota River Valley. This is slightly more DFL leaning than the southern bank. The DFL should hold 17A, and the GOP has a good shot at holding 17B. If Kulby chooses to not run in 16, he could run and win in 17.
Senate: Lean D (depending on candidates)
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely R

District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. I doubt the DFL contests any of these 3 districts.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 19: This is a district the Republicans tried to eliminate. The courts didn’t slice and dice, and left Mankato with representation. All 3 incumbents are DFLers, and all 3 were elected at the same time in 2006 and have been reelected with little difficulty since. Theoretically these seats COULD be in play, but there are other districts Republicans will sink money into before they try and pick off DFL incumbents in D+ PVI districts.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely B

District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs, and the southern part is actually DFL leaning farmland. Overall the senate district should be Republican, but this area had a DFL senator 2 years ago. The DFL will be gunning for Woodard hard after the contentious recount with Bly in 2010, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bly again, actually. 20B is more marginal, with no incumbent.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean R
House B: Toss-up

District 21: This is very marginal territory all around. I will give the edge to the incumbents.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean D
House B: Lean R

District 22: This is old school DFL farmer  territory, but some of the areas have shifted  intensely the other direction, and I don’t see the DFL winning these districts, but it is certainly not outside of the realm of possibility.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R

District 23: This is another tail-of-two-halves district. 23A really isn’t in play for the DFL, while 23B is certainly a lean-DFL seat if open. But 23B is not open, and Torkelson is a strong incumbent. (On a personal note, I hope he beats the dog snot out of Cornish in the primary. I have no respect for Cornish as a man, and I say that about very very few politicians).
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B : Likely R

District 24: This is a Republican leaning area, with some strong DFL incumbents in the house, and in the senate an open seat with Republican Mike Parry trying to take on Tim Walz, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kath give the senate seat a shot.
Senate: Toss-up (depending on candidates)
House A: Lean D (Likely D with Kath, toss-up without)
House B: Likely D (Fritz is strong)
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26B are Rochester, and aren’t exactly prime pickup opportunities for the Republicans. Olmsted County used to be a Republican stronghold, but it has shifted hard and fast towards the D recently. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats. I honestly think that the Republicans will hold on to these two, as the DFL has other districts with better recruits elsewhere, but they are by no means secure for the decade. As for the senate goes, I think Sanjem is safe, but I don’t think Nelson is.
Senate 25: Likely R
Senate 26: Toss-up
House 25A: Likely R
House 25B: Likely D
House 26A: Likely R
House 26B: Likely D

Districts 27. This is part of the Southern Minnesota DFL strong area. It is a lot like eastern Iowa in that regards. I like to give the benefit of the doubt to incumbents, but Murray is in a really really tough spot for the Republican to live.
Senate:  Safe DFL
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe DFL

District 28: this is the other part of the southern Minnesota DFL area. The GOP wave hit here hard, and brought in a couple Republicans in a tough area for Republicans to be. It would take another 2010 to repeat that performance, and I just don’t see that in the cards. In an open seat situation, these would all be likely DFL seats. But incumbency matters.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Toss-up.

So ends my outstate edition. I don’t have the mental energy to slog through the metro districts right now. But fear not, there will be a Part II!

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  I am now in 27A (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ER Doc

    Thanks for the analysis. I have not had a chance to dig in to the map yet, maybe this weekend.

    FWIW It's a completely new district for me. My home town of 2,000 is the only part of my old district that is in my new district. The District is much more Democratic than my old one but somehow I am going from a Democratic State Rep to a Republican one. At least a have a democratic state senator for the first time in forever.

  •  Excellent Work..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy, WisJohn

    Of course this redistricting map had to hit on my busiest day (and night) at work in the last six months, so I've still given it only cursory glances, but I'll share my evaluation of the outstate maps to complement, or potentially contest, some of your observations.

    1B--I suspect it reverts to the DFL.  Bernie Lieder got Oberstared last time but it's pretty comfortably DFL turf in statewide elections

    4A, 4B--Morrie Lanning is a guy.  He's been winning in Moorhead for years and still will.  With Norman County in 4B, I'd actually rate that as a stronger DFL district.

    5A, 5B--I finally now deciphered the district lines here.  I think with the Greenway area in 5B and only mildly Republican areas of Cass County, the district will go DFL more often than not.

    6A, 6B--Not loving how giant these Iron Range districts are getting size-wise.  

    8A, 8B--Democrat Dan Skogen held a Senate race here for four years but he was pretty likely an exception.  Still, if he ran again it seems plausible he could win...but not likely any other DFLer.

    9A, 9B--Long history of conservative Democrats winning here, and dominated it for most of the 10 years.  Unfortunately, I tend to agree that 2010 was a realigning election here.  Just too socially conservative.

    10A, 10B--Similar to District 9.  Potential for Democratic victories but increasingly drifting away.

    12A--If we ever get rid of Torrey Westrom, this seat will go Democrat.  I'd like to see Paul Marquardt run against him.  I think it would be one hell of a race.  Hard to see Senate District 12 will be damn tough with Alexandria and Sauk Centre though.

    15A--In an incumbent-free race I could see this being competitive.  THere's some old-line DFL loyalties in Mille Lacs County.  15B and the Senate district are hopeless with Sherburne County though.

    16--I'd bet heavy money against DFLer Kubly hanging on in a district anchored by Redwood and Brown Counties.  The population numbers are simply weighed too heavily in the GOP favor, which is really sad given the Farmer-Labor strongholds getting swallowed up by the district.  16A would be incredibly hard to win by itself, but easily the most winnable of the three with DFL-leaning Lac qui Parle and Yellow Medicine Counties constituting half the population.

    17A--DFLer Lyle Koenen should have no problem holding this district.  This is the heart of the Farmer-Labor region.  

    17B--Kandiyohi County has trended Republican but I think it's still winnable, especially without Prinsburg in the southwest corner of the county.

    19--I guess I hadn't heard that the planned to splice up Mankato.  This district looks like a nice DFL island.

    20--Northfield is really all that Bly has going for him here.  Meaning even if he wins it back with Presidential election college campus turnout in 2012, he'll probably lose it again in 2014 without that high turnout.

    22--Unfortunately I have to agree.  Despite long-standing competitiveness here, the last of the DFLers have fallen and it seems unlikely to swing back.  Worthington is now majority-minority, but the farm vote has simply swung too Republican in recent years.

    23B--I used to be a newspaper reporter here and share your dislike of Cornish (I was lukewarm on Gunther).  Any specific reasons you hate Cornish if you don't mind my asking?

    24--For whatever reasons, typically Republican-leaning Owatonna and Waseca did not get caught up in the 2010 Republican wave as expected.  Fritz and Kath surprisingly hung on, but I still think they're vulnerable.

    27--My home district.  I was worried Albert Lea and Austin would be separated, which would completely kill the community of interest principle and those towns are twin cities in many ways.  There's a union tradition in those towns that even Tom Rukavina refers to as "the Iron Range of the southern Minnesota". I can't understand why, but 27A (Albert Lea) has long had a liking for moderate Republicans and Murray fits in that tradition.  He's still extremely vulnerable though.

    28--The shift to organic farming has been the biggest factor pushing the southeast corner of Minnesota to the DFL (along with the Mississippi River Valley on the Iowa and Wisconsin side for that matter too) but this area is ancestrally Republican which explained the backslide in 2010.  Hopefully it won't last.

    Again, thanks for writing and great work.

    •  Thank you for your insight (0+ / 0-)

      As far as Cornish goes, I had a couple less than pleasant interactions when I worked in the capital. Granted, I was a staffer for a DFL representative, but you should still expect a certain level of decorum from a public servant.

  •  Thanks for this! (0+ / 0-)

    Great work. I am impressed with how you can know so much about so many districts! Eager to see a take on the metro.

  •  MN Progressive Project has it wrong. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    In District 21A, Rep. Tim Kelly is a Republican. He did vote against the gay marriage referendum, though.  Kelly defeated one-term DFL Rep. Sandy Wollschlager in 2008, in this Red Wing/Wabasha/Cannon Falls district. I actually was born in Wabasha, and live just across the river from this district.

    But, Thanks for this. As a Wisconsin resident who watches the Minnesota legislature on TV because I am close enough to the Cities, I am looking forward to the elections in these new districts, and hoping for a DFL takeover.

    For part II, you should give a guess on what the new House ans Senate numbers will be after the election.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 09:26:30 PM PST

    •  Well, I say it certainly flips Dem in both spots. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      The MN GOP is bankrupt (both financially and morally), their rising star Amy Koch was humbled, and the DFL has healed completely from 2010.

      Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 09:37:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bold Prediction..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        Goodhue and Wabasha Counties seemed like prime areas to switch from Bush to Obama in 2008, but the needle barely budged and they remained narrowly in the McCain column.  After observing this area for two decades, my conclusion is that it's an easy place for Democrats to come close but a very difficult place for Democrats to win.

        •  Agree. (0+ / 0-)

          But, question. How did Sandy Wollschlager win in 2006? Did she get lucky? Was Iocco a bad candidate?

          Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

          by WisJohn on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 10:34:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  One other thought. (0+ / 0-)

            If Tim Kelly's district was drawn along the river from Red Wing to Goodview, it would be pick-upable. That would leave a Super safe red district for the rest of Wabasha and Goodhue. But, it is a done deal now.

            Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

            by WisJohn on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 10:48:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Agreed..... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn

              The immediate river valley in Goodhue and especially Wabasha Counties are very Democratic.  The western portions of both counties are rock-solid Republicans.  Wabasha County in particular is among the politically polarized counties in the state.

          •  It Was The 2006 Wave..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            No idea about Iocco's merit as a candidate but 2006 was the year that most politically center-right areas in the state gave Democrats a chance.  Interesting to consider that of the last five election cycles in the Minnesota Legislature, four of them were wave years.  The Republicans made huge gains in 2002, the Democrats won most of those seats back in 2004, the Democrats expanded deep into red territory in 2006, and the Republicans cleaned up in 2010.  Only 2008 saw little change, and that was because the DFL had already won just about everything they had a chance of winning in 2006.

    •  My gut tells me that the DFL takes the senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      And likely takes the House.

      Counting only outstate districts, the Republicans have a 13-10-5 advantage in the senate. (Fellow swingnuts want to check? But I believe that this is most Democratic outstate around, outside of tiny states like Alaska and Hawaii)

      •  Wisconsin? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, KingofSpades

        There are a lot of Dems outside the Milwaukee area, and not just in Madison. The only blood-red area of the state is the non-Milwaukee County burbs. The GOP has just a 17-16 edge in the state senate, although it helped that Dems flipped two outstate seats in recalls.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Feb 22, 2012 at 09:33:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Larry Hosch and MN-7 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Are DFL insiders saying he's the anointed one to take the helm of MN-7 when Peterson retires?

    Sh*t politicians say: "I'm Pete 'Spend-It-Not' Hoekstra and I approve this message." -'Police State' Pete

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 09:38:26 PM PST

    •  Definitely Not.... (0+ / 0-)

      A few names get thrown out there, with photogenic Kent Eken from northwestern Minnesota being the most common.  Hosch is a very strong candidate, but there is likely to be a regional divide as people from the Red River Valley are unlikely to surrender their claim on this district quietly.  While a neutral observer would likely see it as a homogenous farm district, the sugar beet farmers in Eken's district have much different priorities than the dairy farmers in Hosch's district.

      Given the size of the district and the wide range of inconvenient media markets that serve it (mostly media markets in the Dakotas), a fairly nontraditional campaign will be required by both parties when the seat becomes open.  

    •  He would certainly be very good. (0+ / 0-)

      Like Goldy said, he holds a district that went for McCain 54-44. He would be a good fit.

      Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

      by WisJohn on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 10:21:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No (0+ / 0-)

      There are few candidates that are actually being groomed for higher office. And there are even fewer being groomed for congress. Hosch will certainly not be a shoo-in in the primary, but he would be incredibly strong district-wide.

  •  Kubly's not running for reelection (0+ / 0-)

    he was diagnosed with ALS in December 2010 and is serving out his term and retiring.

    The last article on that from January 2012.

    Adjust accordingly

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 11:17:05 PM PST

  •  Interesting analysis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Minnesota Mike

    http://politicsinminnesota.com/...

    It does show the gap between Republican perception and DFL perception.

    •  Good Breakdown (0+ / 0-)

      Interesting that Tom Emmer won 42 of the 67 new Senate districts. FWIW According to my math Obama won 40 of the 67 new Senate districts.

      I think the both Houses are winnable but it looks like the Senate will be a tougher climb than the House.

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        While Emmer would have won 42 of 67 state Senate races, remember 1) he lost overall.  2) This is the Republican high tide.  Turnout will be far greater in 2012 with it being an election year and the Republicans have shot themselves in the foot about 100 times over.  If the "wind" is neutral, this map favors Republicans slightly, since Minnesota remains a blue state.  However, I don't believe the wind will be neutral, especially in a Presidential year.

  •  When is the Metro analysis coming (0+ / 0-)

    Being a life-long metro resident, I can hardly wait for the analysis of the districts in the Twin Cities metro area.  I am especially looking forward to the analysis of SD 51 (Eagan & Northern Burnsville).  That might be the swingiest district in the state.

    •  either tonight or tomorrow (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      I have been insanely busy with work and family over the last week so it came down to priorities. But this week looks less busy, and I will get cracking on them tonight, and if I finish, I will post. If not, it'll be tomorrow.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site