District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This is a pretty balanced district. The lines didn’t change much in redistricting. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf since before I was born. The northern district is marginally more Republican as it contains Roseau County.
Senate: Safe D with Stumpf, toss-up if open.
House A: Lean R with Fabian, toss-up if open
House B: Toss-up with or without Kiel
District 2: This is essentially the Bemidji district. Two senators live there: Skoe, and surprise freshman Carlson. Skoe is a Peterson clone, and comes from the conservative part of this district. Head-to-head, I would put serious money on Skoe. There is a decent Republican contingency at the southern fringe of this district, which could potentially provide for an appealing move from Representative Hancock from 2A to 2B, as he lives in the much more Democratic 2A.
Senate: Likely D with Skoe vs. Carlson. Safe D with just Skoe. Lean D with just Carlson. Likely D if open
House A: Likely D
House B: Toss-up
District 3: The first of the Iron Range districts. Dill, Murphy and Bakk are as safe as can be.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. 4A is likely one of the most Democratic house districts outside of the Iron Range or in outstate Minnesota. The Republicans do have a decent incumbent in Lanning. She would be well advised to move outside of the city limits to 4B, because even she wouldn’t have a prayer in 4A.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Lean R with Lanning, Lean D if open.
District 5: The amalgam district. 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively NOT. This will be contested on both sides in both districts. The courts are saying that Persell lives in 5A, but I have to image he would run in 4A. If he does that, I will likely be working for McElfatrick’s opponent, depending on where people end up running, this is all pending who throws their hat in where. On the senate side, Saxhaug is not in serious trouble. But with Cass County, it can’t be considered 100% safe.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Toss-up (who knows who the candidates are)
House B: Likely D
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. These seats won’t even be contested.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
Disdtrict 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco, and the hub of the Iron Range
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
District 8: Amy Klobuchar lost this district. That is all you really need to know. Only action will be in the primary, as a couple members were double bunked.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 9: This district didn’t really exist before. But it is quite Republican. Although there have been DFLers to win races here
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Safe R
District 10: Another new district: This is a really marginal one. With Aitkin leaning D, and Crow Wing leaning R. The Republicans have a strong incumbent senator, and the DFL has a strong incumbent House member (in the more Republican of the districts). With the open district being incredibly marginal, this could end up with a Republican senator and two DFL house members.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely D
House B: Toss-up
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County, and have a fairly strong incumbent in Pine County (Hilty). 11B may look like a juicy target for Republicans, but it is likely fool’s gold. Republican Roger Crawford lives here, but the area he represents currently is not in this district. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if he takes his game a couple miles away and runs in the 15th instead of facing a legacy incumbent like Hilty. Then again, Hilty is old. I met the guy, and I firmly believe he will be carried out of St. Paul feet first.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Likely D with Hilty, Lean D without.
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson Country. Currently the Republicans have a couple good incumbents, and I don’t see them losing. The DFL could be competitive 12A if open, but not really in 12 B.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Safe R
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud. This should be Republican turf, and for the most part it is. However there is a guy by the name of Larry Hosch that doesn’t believe it, and he wins in spite of this. He is young, aggressive, and an 8 year incumbent despite being the ripe old age of 34. This is the man that will likely run to replace Peterson when he retires. When that happens 13A will be almost a certain Republican pickup, but not until that point.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Likely D with Hosch, Likely R without
House B: Safe R
District 14: Republicans are not going to be pleased with this. Republicans pray and pray that St. Cloud will be diluted among the local Republican areas. That didn’t happen. 14A is essentially St. Cloud, and is a prime pickup opportunity for team blue, but there is a freshman Republican there. 14 B is a tougher nut to crack, as is the senate district (but not unheard of, as one Tarryl Clark held a seat very similar to this).
Senate: Likely R without Clark, Toss-up with Clark
House A: Toss-up
House B: Likely R
District 15: This is a Republican area, and I doubt the DFL even contests either of the house districts or senate district.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 16: This is basically a Minnesota River Valley district, and it really can’t be compared to the old districts, so it’s basically new. 16 A is ancestrally DFL, but is represented by a Republican. Marty Siefert represented this area for a while, so it is certainly not adverse to Republicans. It is, however, represented in the senate by 3-term DFLer Kulby, and freshman GOP senator Dahms. The senate race will certainly be a battle royale. It is not unreasonable to think this results in a DFL senator and two GOP representatives
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R
District 17: The north side of the Minnesota River Valley. This is slightly more DFL leaning than the southern bank. The DFL should hold 17A, and the GOP has a good shot at holding 17B. If Kulby chooses to not run in 16, he could run and win in 17.
Senate: Lean D (depending on candidates)
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely R
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. I doubt the DFL contests any of these 3 districts.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 19: This is a district the Republicans tried to eliminate. The courts didn’t slice and dice, and left Mankato with representation. All 3 incumbents are DFLers, and all 3 were elected at the same time in 2006 and have been reelected with little difficulty since. Theoretically these seats COULD be in play, but there are other districts Republicans will sink money into before they try and pick off DFL incumbents in D+ PVI districts.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely B
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs, and the southern part is actually DFL leaning farmland. Overall the senate district should be Republican, but this area had a DFL senator 2 years ago. The DFL will be gunning for Woodard hard after the contentious recount with Bly in 2010, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bly again, actually. 20B is more marginal, with no incumbent.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean R
House B: Toss-up
District 21: This is very marginal territory all around. I will give the edge to the incumbents.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Lean D
House B: Lean R
District 22: This is old school DFL farmer territory, but some of the areas have shifted intensely the other direction, and I don’t see the DFL winning these districts, but it is certainly not outside of the realm of possibility.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R
District 23: This is another tail-of-two-halves district. 23A really isn’t in play for the DFL, while 23B is certainly a lean-DFL seat if open. But 23B is not open, and Torkelson is a strong incumbent. (On a personal note, I hope he beats the dog snot out of Cornish in the primary. I have no respect for Cornish as a man, and I say that about very very few politicians).
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B : Likely R
District 24: This is a Republican leaning area, with some strong DFL incumbents in the house, and in the senate an open seat with Republican Mike Parry trying to take on Tim Walz, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kath give the senate seat a shot.
Senate: Toss-up (depending on candidates)
House A: Lean D (Likely D with Kath, toss-up without)
House B: Likely D (Fritz is strong)
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26B are Rochester, and aren’t exactly prime pickup opportunities for the Republicans. Olmsted County used to be a Republican stronghold, but it has shifted hard and fast towards the D recently. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats. I honestly think that the Republicans will hold on to these two, as the DFL has other districts with better recruits elsewhere, but they are by no means secure for the decade. As for the senate goes, I think Sanjem is safe, but I don’t think Nelson is.
Senate 25: Likely R
Senate 26: Toss-up
House 25A: Likely R
House 25B: Likely D
House 26A: Likely R
House 26B: Likely D
Districts 27. This is part of the Southern Minnesota DFL strong area. It is a lot like eastern Iowa in that regards. I like to give the benefit of the doubt to incumbents, but Murray is in a really really tough spot for the Republican to live.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe DFL
District 28: this is the other part of the southern Minnesota DFL area. The GOP wave hit here hard, and brought in a couple Republicans in a tough area for Republicans to be. It would take another 2010 to repeat that performance, and I just don’t see that in the cards. In an open seat situation, these would all be likely DFL seats. But incumbency matters.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Toss-up.
So ends my outstate edition. I don’t have the mental energy to slog through the metro districts right now. But fear not, there will be a Part II!