Wednesday marked a sort of poll-mageddon, with waves of data coming all day long. I initially considered hiding under my bed, but instead went with the idea of starting the Wrap sometime around breakfast, in the naive hope that it would be done by sunset.
Obviously, there is a lot to digest in the numbers. But the general trends continue to hold: (1) if there is a Mitt Romney polling rebound yet, it really isn't showing up in any substantial way, and (2) the president may still suffer from middling job approval, but he still looks better than one would expect when paired with his even less popular Republican opposition.
First, let's (try to) sift our way through the GOP primary data:
NATIONAL (Associated Press/GfK): Santorum 33, Romney 32, Gingrich 15, Paul 15
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Santorum 35, Romney 27, Gingrich 15, Paul 10
NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Santorum 35, Romney 26, Gingrich 14, Paul 11
ARIZONA (NBC News/Marist): Romney 43, Santorum 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 11
CALIFORNIA (Field Poll): Romney 31, Santorum 25, Paul 16, Gingrich 12
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Santorum 37, Romney 34, Paul 10, Gingrich 7
MICHIGAN (NBC News/Marist): Romney 37, Santorum 35, Paul 13, Gingrich 8
OKLAHOMA (Rasmussen): Santorum 43, Gingrich 22, Romney 18, Paul 7
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Santorum 34, Romney 18, Paul 17, Gingrich 12
On the general election front, I'd pay particular attention to Wisconsin and Michigan. If those numbers are legit, I really have to wonder about the rest of the Industrial Midwest.
NATIONAL (Associated Press/GfK): Obama d. Romney (51-43); Obama d. Paul (53-44); Obama d. Santorum (52-43); Obama d. Gingrich (52-42)
NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-44); Obama d. Santorum (47-44); Obama d. Gingrich (50-39)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (46-43); Obama d. Romney (47-41)
ARIZONA (NBC News/Marist): Romney d. Obama (45-40); Santorum d. Obama (45-42); Paul d. Obama (43-41); Obama d. Gingrich (45-40)
ARIZONA (PPP): Santorum d. Obama (47-46); Obama tied with Romney (47-47); Obama d. Paul (46-42); Obama d. Gingrich (48-44)
MICHIGAN (NBC News/Marist: Obama d. Romney (51-33); Obama d. Paul (53-31); Obama d. Santorum (55-29); Obama d. Gingrich (56-28)
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Santorum (51-40); Obama d. Romney (53-38); Obama d. Paul (52-36); Obama d. Gingrich (56-33)
Some thoughts about the deluge of data, right after the jump.
In Mitt Romney's favor, so to speak, was the end of a fairly long streak today. When Gallup reported its daily tracking poll of the GOP primary this morning, it showed for the first time in nearly three weeks an incrementally lower share of the vote for Rick Santorum than the day before. Santorum had either increased his vote percentage or held steady every day since before the Super Bowl.
Michigan, quite clearly, has to simply be declared a toss-up at this point. NBC/Marist had Mitt Romney staked to a two-point lead, while local pollsters EPIC-MRA went the other way, giving a three-point edge to Rick Santorum. At this point, while it is clear that the Romney cash deluge (Restore Our Future has already dumped a cool $1.1 mil) has tightened the race, it hasn't completely reversed it.
It also raised the stakes for tonight's debate, since with the race at a coin flip in Michigan, any little gust of wind at a candidate's back could prove to be decisive.
Meanwhile, NBC/Marist goes against the grain a bit in the other 2/28 contest, declaring that Mitt Romney pretty well has Arizona in hand, with a 16-point lead. But other polls show Mitt Romney losing a substantial lead in California (Field reports that Romney had a 20-point lead earlier in the month, which had slipped to six points in a week), and trailing in both Oklahoma and Wisconsin. National polls had a bit wider range, but all agreed on a lead for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney, with Gingrich and Paul in a distant second tier.
History has shown, however, that state polls flip and turn wildly leading into an election, so one could make a pretty compelling argument that national polling, and even Super Tuesday polling, doesn't have a tremendous amount of meaning. If Mitt Romney goes two-for-two in six days, it is hard to imagine that he won't get a sizable bounce in both national and state polling leading into Super Tuesday. If Santorum makes Arizona interesting and wins Michigan, he might be able to keep himself front-and-center in the public conversation.
Obviously, if Super Tuesday polling is highly subject to change, polling for November's showdown with Barack Obama is even more so. President Obama's numbers, however, look pretty good in this heavy midweek sampling of polls. Which makes one wonder if those softer numbers earlier in the week were just a blip on the radar. There is something to be said, however, for the fact that Obama's numbers in Wisconsin and Michigan now look better than they did against John McCain in 2008. Arizona looks better, as well, but that was to be expected without a native son on the ballot.
The bottom line is that while the president's job numbers are still pretty middling, the public assessment of his Republican rivals is even worse. It might be the only truly consistent theme over the past several months, and it has, if anything, strengthened through the course of the GOP primary/caucus season. It's still early, of course, but these numbers must make the Republicans wonder if they can successfully make the election into a referendum on Barack Obama if the public is so dissatisfied with the alternative.
Perhaps they will be able to do so, and anyone who thinks it is impossible must remember that the GOP swept into the majority of the House during the midterms despite polling numbers that showed the Republicans considerably less popular as a party than the Democrats. If the president frames the race as a choice between two visions, however, it is hard not to view him as a betting favorite, given the low esteem in which the public currently holds the GOP.