As has been the case approximately three dozen times in this GOP campaign (and that, friends, is only a slight exaggeration), we seem to creeping inexorably back to the Romney inevitability theme in the fight to face Barack Obama in November.
New polling shows the former Massachusetts governor solidifying his lead in Arizona, and quite possibly edging into the lead in Michigan. If those new polls are correct, Tuesday will afford Romney to opportunity to portray himself as "comeback kid." And if that is the story four days from now, a lot of the Super Tuesday polling we have seen may well go out the window.
That is the big story in a relatively light Friday on the public opinion front. Let's begin with those GOP primary numbers, with the House of Ras taking center stage on the Republican side of the ledger.
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Santorum 33, Romney 27, Gingrich 16, Paul 11
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): Romney 42, Santorum 29, Gingrich 16, Paul 8
MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone): Romney 36, Santorum 33, Paul 12, Gingrich 9
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Romney 40, Santorum 34, Paul 10, Gingrich 9
All is reasonably quiet on the general election front, but the Rasmussen tracker rebounded slightly in the GOP direction after veering sharply towards Obama in the past couple of days. The net result, however, is still a reasonably comfortable Obama advantage. As it relates to the president, Rasmussen also is a little more bearish on Pennsylvania, and a little more bullish on Montana, than one might expect.
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Santorum (48-42); Obama d. Romney (48-41)
MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (48-41); Santorum d. Obama (45-41)
PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (45-44); Obama d. Santorum (46-40)
Is this the end of Santor-mania? A few thoughts on that past the jump.
I am always wary of drawing big campaign conclusions based (largely or solely) on the House of Ras, but it is safe to say that they are seeing what everyone else is seeing in the February 28th contests, albeit in sharper contrast than most. The idea of Romney being up six on Santorum in Michigan might be met with some skepticism, but there might be something to it, at least for the moment.
Here's why:
One reason Rasmussen polling often feels like a bit of a "leading indicator" on horserace polling is one often overlooked characteristic of their data: their samples are single-day samples. That means they will catch quick pivots in races. Hypothetically, let's say Pollster X had a poll out today showing a one-point race there. It is possible that their Thursday sample (which is all Rasmussen has in their poll) was Romney +6, and was offset by two days of Santorum being staked to a 2-3 point lead.
The danger inherent in single-day samples, of course, is they may draw broad conclusions from events with narrow impact. For example, the Wednesday CNN debate may legitimately have shifted the race, as Republican voters recoil from a candidate who clearly did not look ready for prime time. In that case, Rasmussen, by polling on Thursday, looks positively Nostradamus-like if the race slides in Romney's direction from this point forward.
However, if the debate leaves the public consciousness quickly, or ... ahem ... gets replaced by something even more putrid, then Rasmussen looks pretty silly if Santorum claims Michigan in a few days. Or, they risk self-mockery by polling again on Sunday and Monday and saying "Wow! Santorum surges at the 11th hour!"
Either way, their credibility gets blasted. Realistically, that's one of the cautionary notes about a one-day sample, even if you can get a big enough sample to counteract high margins of error. You are catching the immediate reaction, and not the more nuanced reaction of the electorate which may shift over time.
So, is Rick Santorum on the decline? He might well be. You gotta think, after today, that Mitt Romney did Santorum a big-ass favor with Ford Field. If nothing else, it changes the conversation in a big hurry.