There is a moderate risk for severe weather across parts of eastern South Carolina, North Caroline, and Virginia this afternoon and evening as thunderstorms are expected to develop and move through the area along a very strong cold front. Damaging winds up to or even in excess of 100 MPH are possible in the strongest storms this afternoon.
Jump the fold.
A low pressure system centered almost directly over Detroit is responsible for this cold front which extends from around Pittsburgh southward through Alabama, Louisiana and into the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will quickly move eastward through the day today and reach the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic by early this evening. As the cold front advances, air rising up and over the front will provide sufficient lift to kick off a line of thunderstorms along the leading edge of the front.
HRRR model simulated radar imagery for 4:00 PM this afternoon, showing where the storms are expected to develop. It's a bit convoluted because it's a model simulation of the radar this afternoon. The takeaway from this is that the strongest storms will form from east central Virginia down through South Carolina.
At the same time, winds at the 500 millibar level of the atmosphere (usually between 16,000 and 20,000 feet off the ground) will strengthen to 130 to 150 knots (150 to 173 MPH) across the western Carolinas.
500 millibar winds this evening. Green is relative humidity.
As the squall line develops along the cold front, the downdrafts in this line of thunderstorms is expected to be able to tap into that incredibly strong jet of air at 500 millibars, and force it down to the surface. The
SPC has issued a moderate risk for severe weather due to the threat for extremely damaging winds --
with gusts possibly in excess of 100 MPH -- when and if these storms are able to tap that jet of air and translate some of it down to the surface.
Severe/damaging wind threat today.
In addition to the incredibly strong damaging winds expected this afternoon, there is an elevated risk for tornadoes along the leading edge of the squall line. They won't be anything like we saw last spring, but even a weak EF-0 tornado is very dangerous and should be taken seriously.
Tornado threat today.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for the areas mentioned above until 8PM this evening.
Aside from this elevated risk, there are tornado watches in effect for essentially the entire southeast this afternoon in anticipation of rotation along the leading edge of the squall line as the cold front pushes east. Even if you're not in the areas I mentioned above, keep an eye on the weather this afternoon.
If you live in these areas or if you know someone who does, please pay attention to the weather and let them know that violent severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. I will begin a severe weather liveblog when storms get really bad, since heavily populated areas will be affected by these storms.
You can keep track of the bad weather on your own using the following links:
National Weather Service:
National Weather Service -- Main Page
National Weather Service -- Charleston SC
National Weather Service -- Columbia SC
National Weather Service -- Wilmington NC
National Weather Service -- Raleigh NC
National Weather Service -- Wakefield VA
National Weather Service -- Washington DC
Storm Prediction Center:
Storm Prediction Center -- Severe Weather (Convective) Outlooks
Storm Prediction Center -- Severe T'storm/Tornado Watches
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Discussions
Storm Prediction Center -- Storm Reports
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Analysis
Weather Models:
GFS from NCEP
NAM from NCEP
RUC from NCEP
HRRR from NOAA
ECMWF from the EU
Earl Barker's Current Weather Page
Weather Radar:
NWS Radar Sites
Wunderground Weather Radar
10:32 AM PT: Cumberland County Schools in NC (the county housing Fayetteville NC) will release 1 hour early due to the severe weather threat.
1:31 PM PT: The squall line has formed in central NC and is working its way east. Lots of high wind reports coming out of this line.
3:41 PM PT: The line of storms fell apart when they hit Raleigh. This is one time I'm glad one of my weather diaries was for naught and their forecast was a bust.