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For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.

This is another state where redistricting was kind to Democrats (one of about a half dozen, I think): Pat Quinn managed to hold on to the Governorship by about 1% and Democrats held onto their large legislative majorities despite losing 4 U.S. House seats. Well the new map (seen here) could easily cut Republican's current House delegation in half. And since this is a diary in which Democrats hold the trifecta, I don't have to feel bad about about gerrymandering the shit out of it!

Previous Doubling Diaries: MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Illinois gets 36 districts in Doubling.

Cook County and Suburbs


1
VAP: 38.5 White, 50 Black, 8.9 Hispanic
79 Obama

Open; black majority. A Cook County-University Park district entirely outside the city of Chicago. Safe D, black pickup

2
VAP: 36.4 W, 43.5 B, 17.7 H
78.8 Obama

Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-Chicago) lives here; plurality black. Chicago and into the suburbs. I drew Junior into a plurality black district on purpose, because he's a thorn in our side ethically and he's just a whiner. I would be perfectly happy if Debbie Halvorson ran here and defeated Junior in the primary (even though she lives in the 1st). Safe D, black opportunity

3
VAP: 41.7 W, 50.2 B
79.7 Obama

Open; majority black. Chicago, including UC, and suburbs. As I'll note below, Bobby Rush may choose to run here instead of his home district. Safe D, black pickup/hold

4
VAP: 39.4 W, 50.2 B, 8.2 H
82.4 Obama

Open; majority black. Chicago and suburbs again. Another potential alternative for Rush (more below). Safe D, black pickup/hold

5
VAP: 28.1 W, 50 B, 7.3 H, 12.9 Asian
90 Obama

Bobby Rush (D-Chicago) lives here. First (of 3) districts located entirely in Chicago; West Side. As I mentioned above, Bobby Rush will probably move south to the 3rd or 4th, because the West Side of Chicago is the base of Danny K. Davis, whose home is in the neighboring 6th, but would want to run here. So in the interest of the team at large, Rush moves south, Davis runs here. Safe D, black hold

6
VAP: 35.6 W, 50.4 B, 8.7 H
89.6 Obama

Danny K. Davis (D-Chicago) lives here. Chicago and suburbs. As I said, Davis moves to the 5th. Safe D, black pickup

7
VAP: 29.3 W, 7.2 B, 60.4 H
73.7 Obama

Open; Hispanic supermajority. Chicago and suburbs (Cicero, Berwyn). Safe D, Hispanic pickup

8
VAP: 36.8 W, 7.1 B, 54.1 H
71.3 Obama

Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) lives here. Chicago and suburbs, including La Grange and Western Springs. Lipinski was always too conservative for his district(s), and being shoved in a Hispanic-majority district (with a GOP vote sink on the other side) may finally get him out of Congress. Bye bye Dan. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity

9
VAP: 27.2 W, 9.1 B, 59 H
85.8 Obama

Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) lives here; Hispanic majority. Entirely in Chicago (except for like, one precinct). Safe D, Hispanic hold

10
VAP: 56.2 W, 32.8 H, 7.2 A
67.2 Obama

Open. Chicago, Cook County suburbs and parts of Addison and Bensenville in DuPage County. Sizable Puerto Rican population makes it a possibility for a Hispanic pol to break through the primary, but probably not after an election cycle or two. Safe D

11
VAP: 74.5 W, 6.6 B, 9.8 H, 7.3 A
79.6 Obama

Mike Quigley (D-Chicago) lives here, as much as I can tell (the Ward/Precinct system is really fucked up), but even if he doesn't, he runs here. Northern Chicago neighborhoods, like Lincoln Park. Safe D

12
VAP: 59.6 W, 12.2 B, 11.4 H, 14.4 A
75.9 Obama

Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston) and Bob Dold! (R-Kenilworth) both live here, just like in the newly drawn redistricting map in reality. Northern Chicago and Evanston. Dold probably moves west to much more favorable territory in the 13th. Safe D

13
VAP: 75.8 W, 8.8 H, 12.7 A
58.8 Obama

Open. A small part of Chicago and northwest suburbs, like Park Ridge, Niles and Des Plains. As I said, Dold probably runs here. It's two points less Democratic than his current IL-10, so I don't really know how to handicap this race. In a Presidential year in the President's home state (but in an ancestrally Republican area), I'd call it Swing

14
VAP: 73.8 W, 14.1 H, 9.3 A
58.5 Obama

Open. Northwest Cook County: Mount Prospect, Elk Grove Village. This area is ancestrally Republican, but trending towards us I believe. Lean D with no incumbent

15
VAP: 65.4 W, 15 H, 14.9 A
59.1 Obama

Open. Schaumburg and Streamwood in Cook County, Bloomingdale in DuPage. Again, perhaps too optimistic, but Lean D

16
VAP: 65.6 W, 20.4 H, 9.1 A
56.2 Obama

Open. Barrington (Cook), Elgin, St. Charles and Carpentersville (Kane), Carol Streams and Glendale Heights (DuPage). Large and growing Hispanic population means it will probably trend our way, but for now it's Swing, if not lean R.

17
VAP: 60.2 W, 6.4 B, 28.4 H
59.3 Obama

Randy Hultgren (R-Winfield) lives here. Aurora, small parts of Aurora suburbs in Kendall County, and West Chicago and parts of Wheaton and Lombard in DuPage. Very Dem and very Hispanic Aurora dominates the district, but an incumbent Republican in an ancestrally Republican area complicates this. However, with Congress as unpopular as it is and the newly configured district, I'll call this Swing, Lean R with Biggert

19
VAP: 82.9 W, 5.5 H, 7.7 A
50.5 Obama

Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) and Judy Biggert (R-Hinsdale) both live here. GOP vote sink in DuPage County (and a small part of Cook). One of the two incumbents may move north to try the 17th. Safe R

20
VAP: 65 W, 9.4 B, 11.4 H, 12.7 A
59.4 Obama

Open. Naperville, Bolingbrook and Romeoville. Bill Foster, the former Congressman from IL-14, moved to Naperville in order to run again for Congress. He'd run here. Safe D with Foster, Likely D otherwise

North


18
VAP: 67.3 W, 6.9 B, 17.5 H, 7.1 A
62.5 Obama

Open. Far northern Chicago suburbs in Lake County, including North Chicago and Waukegan. Likely D

21
VAP: 66.3 W, 13.5 B, 17.2 H
60 Obama

Open. Joliet and Kankakee. If Debbie Halvorson wanted a sure(r) thing, she would run here. Safe D

22
VAP: 70.4 W, 5.8 B, 17.2 H, 5.2 A
57.3 Obama

Open. Lake County and part of McHenry. Swing

23
VAP: 87.6 W, 8 H
49.4 Obama (Obama win by 400 votes)

Joe Walsh (R-McHenry) lives here. Lake, McHenry and Kane Counties, with a small slice of DeKalb. Walsh is toxic. Safe R, Lean R with Walsh

24
VAP: 75.1 W, 9.9 B, 11.2 H
57.3 Obama

Open. DeKalb, Belvidere and Rockford. Lean D

25
VAP: 85.2 W, 5.8 B, 6.8 H
57.6 Obama

Open. Somewhat reminiscent of the soon-to-be-former IL-17, it starts in nothern Rockford and crawls across the border, picking up every Democratic-leaning area along the way. It's actually a little less blue than the new IL-17, but establishment choice Cherie Bustos would probably have little trouble being elected here. Likely D

26
VAP: 90.5 W, 5.7 H
46.4 Obama

Donald Manzullo (R-Leaf River) lives here. North Central GOP vote sink. Safe R

Central


27
VAP: 84.8 W, 8.6 B
58.5 Obama

Open. Peoria-mander. Likely D

28
VAP: 87 W, 7.8 B
55.1 Obama

Open. Springfield and out. Swing

29
VAP: 74.6 W, 12.4 B, 6.9 A
59.8 Obama

Timothy Johnson (R-Urbana) lives here. Champaign-Urbana, Decatur and Bloomington. Johnson mostly likely moves to the 34th to save his skin. Safe D

30
VAP: 94.1 W
40.6 Obama

Aaron Schock (R-Peoria) lives here. Suburban Peoria. Worst district in the state for Obama. Schock has to move to the right to survive, poisoning him for statewide races in the future. Safe R

33
VAP: 95.5 W
42.1 Obama

Open. Suburban Springfield and west central. GOP vote sink. Safe R

34
VAP: 89.3 W
43.6 Obama

Adam Kinzinger (R-Mateno) lives here. Outer Joliet, Kankakee and Champaign-Urbana. Like I said, Timothy Johnson moves here, sparking a member-member primary, which is kind of ridiculous under Doubling. Johnson may run in the 35th instead. Safe R

South


31
VAP: 85.4 W, 9.7 B
56.8 Obama

John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) lives here. Dem gerrymander starting in Quincy and crawling along the border until it reaches the Illinois St. Louis suburbs. Shimkus probably inches east to the 36th. Likely D

32
VAP: 75.1 W, 20.4 B
58.8 Obama

Open; Jerry Costello (D-Belleville) is retiring. More St. Louis suburbs, plus reaching across the southern tier to pick up as many Democrats as possible. Both Districts 31 and 32 are better for Democrats than either the current or adopted IL-12. This district is likely where current IL-12 candidate Brad Harriman will run. Safe D

35
VAP: 94.4 W
42.4 Obama

Open. East Central vote sink. Safe R

36
VAP: 92.2 W
41.5 Obama

Open, though like I said John Shimkus will run here. "What's Left"; the Southern Tier. Vote sink. Safe R
.
.
.
.
.
.
So from an 8-11 delegation, to a likely 11-7 map, to this map, which I am calling 23-8-5, but given Obama's home state effect, these ratings probably don't mean a whole lot without more data. Republicans could probably win as many as 3 of the Lean D districts, as well as all the Swings. But this is was I got, as best I can figure.

But, this map adds at least three new black Congressmen, as well as potentially eliminating Jesse Jackson, Jr. It also adds one new Hispanic congressman, and potentially another, which would eliminate needlessly conservative Dan Lipinski. It also eliminates at least one of the 3 (!) DuPage County Republicans, probably Hultgren.

The House so far stands at 234-156-41.

Please tip/rec, but especially comment!

Originally posted to HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:10 PM PST.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:10:56 PM PST

  •  Your race ratings (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Since when is a 57% Obama seat in Illinois "lean D"???

    Peter Roskam has been 100% comfortable in a 56% Obama seat and Mark Kirk won twice by six points in a 61% Obama seat in two awful years for the GOP. That seat does not lean D by any stretch in Illinois.

    18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite. “Freedom granted only when it is known beforehand that its effects will be beneficial is not freedom.”- F.A. Hayek

    by IllinoyedR on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:40:41 PM PST

    •  I was considering the location (0+ / 0-)

      (assuming you're referring to the 22nd), I didn't think Lake County was as ancestrally Republican as the other Collar Counties. But you're probably right, I'll fix it.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:55:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  :( (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    I'm just barely outside of that seat that you think Dold would run in. The horror, the horror.

    By the way, this is a very inventive map. Kudos.

    18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite. “Freedom granted only when it is known beforehand that its effects will be beneficial is not freedom.”- F.A. Hayek

    by IllinoyedR on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:43:48 PM PST

  •  IL-34 here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Well, under this hypothetical map, I'm "represented" by the winner of the Tim Johnson-Adam Kinzinger GOP primary battle royale, provided that Danville mayor Scott Eisenhauer (yes, Danville has a GOP mayor) doesn't decide to seek a U.S. House seat.

    •  Did I forget Kinzinger? (0+ / 0-)

      Shoot. I was planning and tinkering with a couple things anyway, so I'll fix it.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:54:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hmm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      As for Manzullo, call me crazy, but I feel as if he'd rather run in the 57% Obama Rockford and DeKalb based seat.

      However, that hypothetical primary would be very interesting, especially if Eisenhauer got in the race.

      18. R. IL-10. Justin Amash-ite. “Freedom granted only when it is known beforehand that its effects will be beneficial is not freedom.”- F.A. Hayek

      by IllinoyedR on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 10:55:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Several comments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    1. JJJ lives in your 3rd, no? thought he lived right south of Jackson Park?

    2. I'm pretty sure I live in your 3rd too. Without a close up on the streets it's hard to tell where borders are but I'm hoping you drew the border far north enough to possibly entice Alderman Will Burns into a run and save me from the specter of being represented by Bobby Rush. crosses fingers

    3. I think Melissa Bean could win your 16. Also, I believe the Raja vs. Tammy fight would be in the 15th here, but the winner would probably have a good shot of winning the general.

    4. I don't think the term "Aurora suburbs" is legally permissible. I think you'd just say SW Chicago exurbs (which is pretty much what Oswego, etc. is). Anyway, Aurora Twp Clerk Juan Thomas who is currently running for IL-11 would probably run here for the Dems, and while he's very liberal and maybe not the world's best candidate, I think he'd be legit.

    5. Rather than move north to the 17th, I think Judy Biggert would run south (as she is doing in real life) to your 20th district, and make it either Lean D or Likely D.

    6. I'm not sure this map would get rid of Lipinski. I think a lot of that territory is still under the sway of the SW Side machine and they could use the same tactics they used in 2006 to trip up Mark Pera.

    7. I love how the further out you go from Chicago, the uglier the districts become :P

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 11:40:29 PM PST

  •  What is you next state/states? nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Sat Feb 25, 2012 at 01:36:51 PM PST

  •  Comment (0+ / 0-)

    Happy?

    22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 12:58:58 AM PST

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