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This is the second part to the highly popular legislative redistricting analysis.

District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs. This is one of the most Republican districts in the state. These districts likely won’t be challenged at all.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 30: Much like district 29, except with an open house seat that will have people clawing over each other for a decade in office.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 32: This is a district that has some of my Republican friends groaning. They really REALLY wanted this district to be split vertically and extended northward and if done right, could have locked up district 11 for Team Red. Courts didn’t go along with that. This essentially is a Republican vote sink of Chisago and Isanti Counties. Lots of open seats, but they are all safe regardless.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around lake Minnetonka. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean R but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 34: Maple Grove. Zellers lives here. Maple Grove is really the only big city that goes heavily Republican.  Still, we are still winding our way through the exurbs, not too much interesting happening here electorally.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 35: This district has me scratching my head a little bit. 35A is clearly going to be in play and is held by boy wonder tea partier Branden Petersen. Petersen is making a dash at the senate district, despite being a freshman at all of 25 years old. The senate seat SHOULD favor Republicans, but Petersen has some pretty far out there ideas relative to a Coon Rapids and Anoka (The Halloween Capital of the World) based district. With Peterson this open senate district would be more competitive than with someone more within the mainstream. 35A being open makes that a toss-up seat. And 35B is really Republican.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe R

District 36: This is DFL area along the river in the NW suburbs. 36A has a portion of Champlin in it, which will tamp down DFL margins on that side, but not nearly enough to flip it.
Senate: Likely DFL
House A: Likely DFL
House B: Safe DFL

District 37: Blaine. Blaine leans Republican pretty handily, but it is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state.  Still, it would take a really strong IP 3rd party split to get a DFLer in, as the Republicans do have some strong incumbents here.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B Likely R

District 38: This district is sort of odd. It really isn’t a Republican stronghold (except for the North Oaks people, which I nearly got banned at RRH discussing before, on a misunderstanding). There are Republicans galore in this district, but it really isn’t a safe area for them. Although dividing Hugo in half gives them the edge, with 38B still being highly competitive.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R

District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half is dominated by Blue Stillwater, with the northern district dominated by Red Forest Lake. It is hard to see Lohmer  (R-Lake Elmo) holding onto 39B, and Lillie in the senate district sits in a very polarized district. Incumbency gets the edge in the senate, but only by a short hair.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean DFL (likely DFL if open)

District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Safe DFL all around.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL

District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some of the bluest inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. My parents actually live in this district now. No Republicans will be a serious challenge here.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL

District 42: Swingy but DFL leaning. The now-defunct Ramsey County Vikings Stadium proposal would have put the new stadium smack dab in the middle of this district. I believe the senate district is open, as is 42A.
Senate: Lean DFL
House A: Toss-up
House B: Likely DFL

District 43: The North St. Paul part of this district is emerald blue, and the northern Little Canada district is DFL-leaning but not as overwhelmingly.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Lean DFL
House B: Safe DFL

District 44: Rich suburbs (but not really exurbs). Plymouth is a Republican stronghold. And Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city. I think incumbency wins the day, as the incumbents seem fairly strong.
Senate: Safe DFL (with Bonoff, if she lives here, I don’t know where her house is). Lean DFL without her.
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely DFL

District 45: Cystal and New Hope. These are more working class inner suburbs. The Republicans tend not to even contest this area, as it is nearly 2:1 DFL
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL

District 46: St. Louis Park and part of Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population, and Hopkins is a center-left upper-middle class suburb. The DFL has strong incumbents and a tailwind here.
Senate Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL

District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically) . Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here.
Senate Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is swing-to-center left portions of Minnetonka. The senate seat is likely out of reach for the DFL, but 48A is certainly in play in spite of having a freshman Republican incumbent.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Lean R
House B: Likely R

District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite Blue. Edina is actually center-right. Republicans have a strong senate and 49A incumbents, but Mazorol in 49B is really unimpressive, but incumbency matters.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R

District 50: Eastern Bloomington. I would be surprised if Republicans won anything here, especially considering the open seat is the much more liberal northern part of the district (with my home in Richfield) .  Lenczewski won’t be losing any time soon either.
Senate: Likely DFL
House A: Likely DFL
House B: Likely DFL

District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory, and I expect both parties to control all 3 of these seats at one point or another through the decade. All 3 seats were held by the DFL prior to 2010 (this is the old 38), and all 3 are held by Republicans now. For the decade, these will remain toss-ups regardless of who controls them.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: toss-up
House B: toss-up

District 52: This is the quite liberal parts of northern Dakota County. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district, but this is DFL territory.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Likely DFL

District 53: Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly so. The Republicans have a freshman sitting in 53B, so they could in theory hold it. But the rest of the seats should be strong for the DFL
Senate: Likely DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Lean R (Lean DFL if open)

District 54: Southern Washington County. This is swingy to lean-R territory, although Cottage Grove has a fair sized DFL contingent.  
Senate: Likely R
House A: Lean R
Senate: Likely R

District 55: Scott County. This is Republican territory to the core.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R

District 56: Swingy Burnsville and Republican Savage. The Republican incumbents here should have the edge at a win.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R

District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. Rosemount leans left, and Apple Valley leans right.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R

District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. Without Northfield, this area probably has a decent Republican lean. That being said, it is hard to draw lines in this part of Dakota County that are safe for either party.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R

Districts 59- 63: These seats are all Minneapolis, and going to go 80-20 DFL. There are a couple member-on-member match-ups here, but I imagine most of them will be resolved on their own terms.
5 Safe DFL senate seats, and 10 Safe DFL house seats.

Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. However Marty was drawn into a St. Paul district, and that may set off a incredibly contentious primary in 66. Either way, all of these seats are safe.
4 Safe DFL senate seats, and 8 Safe DFL house seats.

Overall- I think I deferred a little too much to incumbents, and likely a few of them will lose come November. But this is the general gist of what redistricting brought to us.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Uh... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    joedemocrat

    You're a wee bit off here.

    37 isn't Blaine. 37 is Apple Valley and Rosemount. Jeff Wilfahrt, father of KIA gay soldier Andrew Wilfahrt, is running for the State House in 37B.

    We have just enough religion to make us hate, but not enough to make us love one another. -- Jonathan Swift

    by raptavio on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 05:44:26 PM PST

    •  Er.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joedemocrat

      Unless the redistrict maps I saw are off, and everything got renumbered?

      We have just enough religion to make us hate, but not enough to make us love one another. -- Jonathan Swift

      by raptavio on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 05:46:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hi There. The numbers have changed.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KelleyRN2

      37 used to be Apple Valley and Rosemount but will now be Blaine...

      I disagree with the new 37 being Likely R...the south part is solidly Dem. There are solidly Rep parts too. I think it is a toss up district but maybe that's wishful thinking on my part..

      But thank you for the analysis...

      At this point, far more people have now been arrested for protesting Wall Street's mortgage fraud crimes than have been for committing and presiding over them.

      by joedemocrat on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 06:06:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I just don't see it (0+ / 0-)

        Blaine is not a 50/50 area.

        •  The reason I thought that (0+ / 0-)

          is when I looked at the map for 37A, (and the maps are big and hard to find exact boundaries), I saw they took parts of 3 old districts (51B, 51A, and 53A). Well, 51B is solid Dem, 51A seems solid Rep, and 53A has elected both. That's what made me think it might be swing...

          And that's just 37A - I didn't look at 37B...

          At this point, far more people have now been arrested for protesting Wall Street's mortgage fraud crimes than have been for committing and presiding over them.

          by joedemocrat on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 06:34:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  37A (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            joedemocrat

            Based on the numbers I've crunched, 37A is actually a fairly decent DFL district, with a DPI of around 54. If the DFL doesn't win this seat, there is no way they are getting a majority.

            The B-side is worse, about a 48 DPI, but still not horrible. The senate district as a whole is probably toss-up to tilt-DFL.

        •  Blaine Typically Has Been 50-50..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          joedemocrat

          Gore narrowly won it, Kerry narrowly lost it, Obama narrowly won it.  It's not quite the bellwether that Minnetonka is but I would describe Blaine as one of the state's most 50-50 cities.  I'll concede it's trending GOP though.

          •  50/50 cities (0+ / 0-)

            When I think if evenly divided cities in Minnesota, Blaine isn't really on the map. Burnsville, Eagan, Edina, St. Cloud, Lino Lakes, and a few others come to mind.

            •  I'm Nominally With You on The First Four...... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              joedemocrat

              Burnsville still leans Republican but is trending DFL.   Eagan is a few years ahead of Burnsville in its trendline and is now about as 50-50 as they come.  St. Cloud is very much 50-50.  And Edina still leans Republican but has been moving towards the DFL as well.

              As for Lino Lakes, I can't think of any Democrat who has won there in the past 10 years.  Possibly Hatch or Swanson in their blowout Attorney General races.  Blaine, while trending GOP, is still much closer to parity than Lino Lakes.

  •  Your analysis of SD 51 (0+ / 0-)

    Right on the nose for now.  In the next 10 years, though, I see it becoming more DFL, along with most of the 2nd ring suburbs.

  •  Maple Grove is a big city?? (0+ / 0-)

    but then again, I'm a native of Chicagoland :-)

    -7.75, -6.05 And these wars; they can't be won Does anyone know or care how they begun?-Matt Bellamy

    by nicolemm on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 06:24:19 PM PST

  •  SD 54 has DFL incumbent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Katie Sieben survived the red tide and should be safe in Cottage Grove for now. The house districts are both Republican-held, but the northern part of the district leans DFL and will be tough for the Republicans to hold. They got lucky in 2010. This district actually looks a lot like the neighboring 53 and is swingy/lean DFL, not lean GOP.

    Otherwise, fantastic analysis! As a fellow Minnesotan, I loved reading these two diaries.

    •  Gah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      minneapolitan

      Missed Sieben

      •  Both HDs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        Both HDs have DFL leans, but very strong GOP incumbents. McNamara in B has been there a while and is an institution in Hastings. Kriesel in A is a freshman, but is an Iraq war vet who lost both of his legs, and he voted against the anti-gay marriage amendment. Lots of DFLers don't want to go after him (and his district has a 57-58 DPI) even though he has made only one good vote. He won in 2010 for three reasons, 1) The year, 2) he's a good candidate, and 3) our candidate running in this then DFL-held open-seat was absolutely horrible.

  •  Great work. (0+ / 0-)

    Can you provide a number breakdown (i.e. number of Safe, Likely, Lean, Tossup seats for each party)?

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 07:04:54 PM PST

  •  A few things. (0+ / 0-)

    In SD-39, GOPer Ted Lillie is paired with GOPer Ray Vanderveer. I personally think that Vanderveer has the advantage over Lillie. But, by the end of the decade, the DFL could have this seat, maybe.

    Second thing is, why do you think that DFLer Katie Sieben will lose SD-45? She won (barely) in 2010, and she retains a lot of DFL territory in Newport, South Saint Paul, Saint Paul Park, and CG. Looking at the map, new SD-54 looks almost exactly like Sieben's old SD-57 (except Saint Mary's Point has been moved out).

    In 54A, as much as Kriesel did the right thing last spring, he still has the DFL territory that re-elected Sieben. I would say Tossup/Lean R for 54A. 2012 will not have the red tide 2010 did.

     If Denny McNamara ever retires, I could see 54B being a DFL opportunity.

    Thank you for the rest of the analysis.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 07:16:45 PM PST

    •  Someone else mentioned that I forgot Sieben (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      I think that race is somewhere between Lean and Likely D with her in it. But it is not a fruitful place for DFLers. The northern part of the district (A) is fairly DFL, but the Southern part simply isn't, and both A and B have Republican incumbents.

  •  SD 53 (0+ / 0-)

    Is it that safely Democratic? I'm moving from the cities to Mapleton (big change, I know) and I'm concerned that for the first time in forever, I might be represented by a Republican in the statehouse. I know that Mapleton is a Dem inner-ring suburb, but Woodbury has always struck me as more Red, and that district now goes well into Washington County.

    •  Do you mean Maplewood? nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MinnesotaTwins

      Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

      by WisJohn on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:42:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If you mean Maplewood (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      Then this is a toss-up senate district. Woodbury has some really good DFL precincts, and some really bad ones as well. The A-side held by Nora Slawik should stick with the DFL. The B-side, held by GOPer Andrea Kieffer, could be won by a conservative DFLer who ran a great campaign, but at 47% it is a tough district. The senate district is one of the most evenly split in the state.

  •  Thanks for both of these diaries! (0+ / 0-)

    They're great! I'll definitely be coming back to these as the election gets closer.

    21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:58:57 AM PST

  •  Lakeville Is a GOP Stronghold...... (0+ / 0-)

    The DFL has zero chance at anything in District 58.  And Rosemount is if anything to the right of Apple Valley, and in 9 out of 10 elections it's a pretty safe bet the GOP holds District 57.

    As for District 54 and southern Washington County, isn't that where Katie Sieben is from?  I think there's at least one pretty certain DFL seat out of the west side of the district in Newport and St. Paul Park.

    •  Sieben (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      Yes, 54 is Sieben. It's a pretty good DFL seat, even with both house members being GOP.

      Rosemount is worse than AV, agreed.

      Lakeville is a city that by the end of the decade I could see being a tossup. It's bad now, especially on the local level, but I've noticed some signs of movement. And we have a potential great candidate there in the future. Council member Matt Little is just 26 and is running for mayor (and has a decent shot at winning). If he wins and does a good job there, he would be the best shot we've ever had at winning a legislative seat there.

      •  Isn't that Mary Liz Holburg's seat he could win?nt (0+ / 0-)

        Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

        by WisJohn on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 10:30:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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