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9:01 AM PT: NY Redistricting: Things are about to get very interesting very quickly in a key New York congressional redistricting lawsuit. As you'll recall, a three-judge federal panel was sympathetic to plaintiff's claims that the legislature was abandoning its duty to draw a new congressional map and last week, without a whole lot of briefing or fuss, directed a magistrate judge to start drafting new lines. The magistrate, Ronnie Mann, is moving at warp speed: At a Monday hearing, she told all parties to submit their own proposals by Wednesday. She'll then release her own map on March 12, and the three-judge panel will consider her plan on March 15. Mann has also tapped Columbia Law Prof. Nathan Persily, the same guy who served as a special master in Connecticut's recent round of redistricting litigation.

Meanwhile, lawmakers will not vote on proposed new legislative maps this week, which means they'll miss a self-imposed March 1 deadline to do so. It sounds like the lege is still negotiating with Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has promised to veto the current proposals but has made it pretty clear he plans to cave if certain phony demands are met. In other words, it's a bunch of kabuki cartography.

9:13 AM PT: MO-01: After more than half a year of rumor and speculation, it's happening: Rep. Russ Carnahan, whose old 3rd CD seat was chopped to bits, has filed to seek re-election in the 1st District, which sets him on a collision course in the Democratic primary with fellow Rep. Lacy Clay. Carnahan still has a lawsuit in the works challenging the state's new congressional map, but he's mostly been met with setbacks and is currently pursuing a last-ditch appeal with the Missouri Supreme Court. Why not let the litigation conclude before jumping in, you might wonder? Because candidate filing began today, and candidates who submit paperwork on the first day get a shot at having their names listed first on the ballot—something potentially worth a few extra votes on election day. So I'd imagine that if Carnahan's legal Hail Mary somehow works out, he'd change his plans, but for now, as he says: "Game on."

10:07 AM PT: WI-Gov: Democrats have retaken the lead over Scott Walker in a new recall poll from PPP. We'll bring you a full post shortly.

10:38 AM PT (David Jarman): RI-01, RI-Sen: The new poll of Rhode Island's 1st district, held by Democratic freshman David Cicilline (still with stink lines coming off him from the financial disarray he left Providence in when he left as mayor), has raised a lot of eyebrows: it shows Republican former state police chief Brendan Doherty leading by a wide margin, 49-34. This isn't the first time Fleming has found a big Doherty lead, though; in May 2011 they gave Doherty a 46-33 lead. And in the interim Starr Opinion Research, for GoProvLocal, found a totally different result, with Cicilline leading Doherty by a more believable 45-39 back in September, so depending on who you want to believe, Cicilline may be in small rather than big trouble.

Don't look for conservaDem businessman Anthony Gemma (who's likely to run in a primary against Cicilline) to ride to the rescue, though; he also loses to Doherty, 41-28. Today's poll also includes a Senate portion, though, with Sheldon Whitehouse whomping Republican Barry Hinckley, 50-28, so that would suggest it's not a crazily Republican-friendly sample. (The poll also has approvals for all these characters and a number of other Rhode Island politicians, but it uses the dumb excellent/good/fair/poor formulation.)

10:47 AM PT (David Jarman): One other important caveat on that RI-01 poll: the 1st district portion is just half of a normal-sized sample, so we're talking about a poll with an n of 250. Nevertheless, Gemma is already using the poll results as a primary-election argument against Cicilline; you can read his whole (lengthy) statement here.

10:56 AM PT (David Jarman): VA-Sen: Here's something you don't see every day: a poll showing something other than a dead heat in the open Virginia Senate race between ex-Gov. Tim Kaine and ex-Sen. George Allen. Roanoke College gives Allen (the Republican) an 8-point lead, up 45-37. (Barack Obama trails Mitt Romney by 1 point in the same sample.) It's worth noting that Roanoke has been putting up the most Republican-friendly polls of Virginia of anyone all cycle, though; Allen led by 3 in September and 13 in March 2011.

11:03 AM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Sen: The New Jersey Senate race this year isn't shaping up to be the scene of much drama: a new Rutgers/Eagleton poll of the race finds Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez doubling up on state Sen. Joe Kyrillos, the principal announced Republican, 44-22. They don't have any trendlines on the Menendez/Kyrillos battle; the only other pollster to have looked at that matchup was Fairleigh Dickinson in January, who saw a 43-31 Menendez lead. (Isn't this the time of year when, in time-honored tradition, the Republican in New Jersey is supposed to be coming close in the polls, to give the NRSC some false hope and lull them into spending money here, only to watch things go kerflooey over the summer? Looks like we may not even get that bit of schadenfreude this year.)

11:10 AM PT (David Jarman): NV-Sen: The senate race in Nevada -- where appointed Republican incumbent Dean Heller is trying for a full term -- is looking like a slightly-Republican-tilting dead heat, and here's some polling evidence for that. Public Opinion Strategies gives Heller a 47-44 lead over Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley (though that's narrower than a 48-42 poll they took in October). POS, of course, is the kingpin of the Republican internal pollster world, but this poll isn't for the Heller camp; it's for the Retail Association of Nevada. And you might remember back to October 2010, when a POS poll for the Retail Association got NV-Sen dead-on when most public pollsters, even the live-callers, were showing a Sharron Angle win -- so I'd give this more weight than your average GOP internal.

11:21 AM PT (David Jarman): PA-AG: Like many of you, I always enjoy learning the backstory of colorful long-ago ex-Reps. that I hadn't previously heard of. But this is a strange way to to learn for the first time about a guy who's been out of the House for 30 years: by finding out that he's running for statewide office! PoliticsPA has an interesting piece on the saga of ex-Rep. Don Bailey, who surprised everyone by jumping into the Dem AG primary at the last minute (joining ex-Rep. and netroots fave Patrick Murphy and former prosecutor Kathleen Kane). Bailey served two terms and then lost a redistricting-forced battle with John Murtha in 1982 (!), got elected statewide as Auditor, then suffered a long losing streak in primaries in the 80s and 90s and gradually faded from the political picture. Well, he's back for a third (or fourth or fifth?) act, and given that there's no SW Pennsylvania candidate in the hunt here (and that a lot of SW Pennsylvanians are old enough to remember him), he may actually have a shot here if he can raise money.

11:22 AM PT: AR-04: Is this the guy Arkansas Democratic Party chair Will Bond had in mind? Bond recently said he expected another Dem to join the race for Rep. Mike Ross's open seat, and now attorney Byrum Hurst has entered the contest. We'll wait to see if Hurst has any chops, but until now, Democratic recruitment has been abysmal. The only announced candidates are state Sen. Gene Jeffress, who hasn't filed any fundraising reports and isn't responding to press inquiries, and crypto-Republican D.C. Morrison, who you may recall ran for Senate in 2010 and helped force a runoff between Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

11:30 AM PT: CA-02: On Monday I said that SEIU California had given their support to activist Norman Solomon in the open 2nd CD. Well, that wasn't wrong, but it wasn't right, either. Solomon's press release obviously only touted his own endorsement, but in point of fact, SEIU endorsed three Democrats in the race: Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams, Assemblyman Jared Huffman, and Solomon.

11:36 AM PT: IL-16: I don't know that it'll make much if any difference, but at least one member of Illinois' congressional delegation is taking sides in the member-vs.-member primary between Reps. Adam Kinzinger and Don Manzullo: sophomore GOPer Aaron Schock, who praises Kinzinger for being "young."

11:44 AM PT: MD-06: Did Democratic financier John Delaney just use an image of an actual revolving door in his TV spot? Why yes, yes he did:

How could it fail to remind you of this seminal classic attack ad?

12:10 PM PT: NE-Sen: As Monday's conflicting reports showed, there's definitely no telling whether Democratic ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey really is planning to run for his old seat—something he publicly decided against just a few weeks ago. Even DSCC chair Patty Murray is refusing to comment, though some Dems are worried that the "leak" (such as it is) will actually undermine efforts to get Kerrey to change his mind:

"True or not true, the leak is frustrating and damaging because it takes the control of the message away from the candidate," a Democratic consultant told Roll Call. "Apparently, we have a bunch of bozos masquerading as political operatives in D.C. You wonder if they actually wear their clown makeup to the office."
I think that's about right. If you're really trying to woo someone as notoriously flighty as Kerrey, why would you jump the gun like this and risk spooking him? Frankly, it makes the cynic in me wonder if this story wasn't planted by opponents of Kerrey's precisely to expose him to unwanted (and unappealing) pressure—and that pressure has apparently been intense, with a dozen Democratic senators reportedly making entreaties to Kerrey. (Harry Reid's also allegedly offered to restore Kerrey's previous level of seniority, but I'm dubious about that.)

There's also another aspect to this, which is that Kerrey does get in, he'd be shafting Chuck Hassebrook, the lone Democrat to file so far, who said: "I gave up my seat on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents based on his word. I do not believe he would go back on it." The Board of Regents is an elected position, so Hassebrook wouldn't be able to re-file for that post if he was pushed into dropping out of the Senate contest.

12:23 PM PT: HI-02: Honolulu Civil Beat's Chad Blair, in a piece on how Honolulu City Councilmember Tulsi Gabbard has benefitted from family connections in her run for Congress, gives a lengthy shout-out to our own Xenocrypt, who has put together an excellent series of diaries carefully documenting where Gabbard's money has come from.

12:38 PM PT: NE-02: Good news: The Obama campaign plans to open up an office in Omaha next month, in order to once again compete for the 2nd Congressional District's lone electoral vote. (You'll recall that Obama won narrowly NE-02 in 2008, giving him 1 EV because Nebraska splits up its electoral votes by CD.) This move is getting a mention in the Daily Digest because once again, Democrats are hoping to unseat GOP Rep. Lee Terry, who was so terrified of the Obama juggernaut four years ago that he even sent out mailers hyping the notion of "Obama-Terry voters." Terry escaped with a 52-48 win, but Team Obama still frightened the pants off him. Two Democrats are vying to take on Terry this year, Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing and state Sen. Gwen Howard, so hopefully we'll have just a little more luck this time out.

12:53 PM PT: NV-Sen: A survey (of likely voters) taken for the Retail Association of Nevada by Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies shows GOP Sen. Dean Heller leading Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley 47-44. That's an improvement for Berkley from September, when POS had the race 48-42 in Heller's favor.

12:56 PM PT: TX Redistricting: Big news: New court-drawn maps are out for Congress, the state House, and the state Senate in Texas.

1:07 PM PT: Below is the congressional map:

Texas interim congressional map
(click for larger)

1:26 PM PT: Courtesy of the Texas Legislative Council, here are the most recent presidential results for the new congressional districts, along with the numbers for the old lines:

1:34 PM PT: Over at Burnt Orange Report, Katherine Haenschen has some initial thoughts on the new maps. The short version is that they suck for Democrats. Kath thinks they're more-or-less identical to the bogus "compromise" maps floated by Republican state AG Greg Abbott and MALDEF, a group which has long played the "useful idiot" role.

1:51 PM PT: VA Redistricting: Bummer. A Virginia court has decided to dismiss a lawsuit against the state's new congressional map, in a case where plaintiffs had argued that the legislature forfeited its right to draw new lines by failing to do so in 2011, the year called for by the state constitution. An earlier ruling gave some hope to those challenging the map, but in the end, the case was booted. (I have yet to see the actual ruling, so I'm not exactly clear on why.) No word yet as to whether plaintiffs plan to appeal.

2:07 PM PT: NC-06: It would have been an extremely tough row to hoe regardless, so I can understand why Dem state Sen. Don Vaughan has decided not to challenge GOP Rep. Howard Coble in the 6th. (It's also possible Coble won't even be the Republican nominee if he loses his primary to Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow.) Indeed, the 59-year-old Vaughan won't be running for anything at all this year, since he got the shaft in redistricting and won't seek re-election to the Senate—though he didn't rule out a future run for office.

2:25 PM PT: ME-Sen: Holy elections, Batman! Can you believe that GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe just announced her retirement? Neither can I, but it's true! Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections, including Snowe's statement explaining her departure.

2:54 PM PT: ME-Sen: It's time for us to play the role of Great Mentioner and come up with a list of potential candidates for the Maine Senate race, which has all of a sudden become a tossup. Note that an asterisk after a candidate's name indicates he or she ran for governor in 2010, the most recent wide-open statewide race in Maine:

Democrats:

Rep. Chellie Pingree

Rep. Mike Michaud

Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree

Former Rep. Tom Allen

Author Stephen King

Writer Bill Harnsberger (aka Bill in Portland Maine)

Ex-Gov. John Baldacci

State House Minority Leader Emily Cain

Former state Sen. Libby Mitchell (2010 gubernatorial nominee)

Former state AG Steve Rowe*

Businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli*

Former State Conservation Commissioner Patrick McGowan*
Republicans:
Gov. Paul LePage (note: not up for re-election until 2014)

State Senate President Kevin Raye

Senate Majority Leader Jon Courtney

Former Sen. (and former Sec. of Defense) Bill Cohen

Former Susan Collins chief-of-staff Steve Abbott*

Businessman Les Otten*

State Sen. Peter Mills*
Independents:
Ex-Gov. Angus King

Attorney Eliot Cutler (note: finished second in 2010 gubernatorial race)

2:58 PM PT: The Hotline mentions several more Republican names:

Attorney General Bill Schneider, former Ambassador Peter Cianchette, 2010 gubernatorial candidate... Bruce Poliquin (who serves as state treasurer), former Gov. Jock McKernan, and former state Rep. Josh Tardy
McKernan seems extremely unlikely to me, since he's Snowe's husband.

3:09 PM PT: NC-Gov: Former state House Speaker Dan Blue is the latest Democrat to say he won't run for governor, and in fact, he was actually the last major name we were waiting to hear from. So barring an unexpected entry, the Dem field looks like it belongs to ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, and state Rep. Bill Faison.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Please please don't report on primaries today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Setsuna Mudo

    elections make me snark.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 08:46:45 AM PST

  •  I can tell this took a lot of work (7+ / 0-)

    thank you for all your effort.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 08:47:13 AM PST

  •  PA-AG: Beware of Zombies (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, Setsuna Mudo, rdw72777

    One-time Congressman and Auditor General Don Bailey, who has lost Dem primary elections in 1982, 1986, 1992, and 1998, is running for Attorney General.

    •  And he lost reelection as Auditor (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      to Barbara Hafer in 1988.  Apparently his last campaign until now was losing the gubernatorial primary to Ivan Itkin in 1998, who then got a whopping 31% of the general election vote against Tom Ridge.

      Looking on his wikipedia entry, Bailey calls himself an "equal opportunity suer" who takes clients litigating on behalf of both parties.  Presumably there's a lot of work he did for Republicans in there that (yes, THAT) Patrick Murphy would pound him with in the primary.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:12:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More! Philadelphia Fraternal Order of Police ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, rdw72777

      ... endorses Patrick Murphy for AG:

      Union president John McNesby predicted a campaign season of innuendo and mud-slinging while taking a shot at Kathleen Kane of Clarks Summit, Murphy's primary rival.

      "Pat's record of telling the truth is what we go by," McNesby said when asked about Kane's campaign bringing up today Murphy's past support in Congress for legislation opposed by gun-control groups. "Candidate Kane, she doesn't even know where Broad Street is in the city of Philadelphia."

      District Attorney Seth Williams, who endorsed Murphy last June, dismissed as a "bullshit argument" Kane's recent focus on Murphy's lack of courtroom experience in Pennsylvania. The Associated Press last month reported that Murphy passed the bar exam in Minnesota rather than Pennsylvania but was later admitted in this state to practice law.

      Kane, a former assistant district attorney in Lackawanna County, has branded some of her campaign material with the slogan, "A prosecutor, not a politician."

      "That's just stupid," Williams said, noting that the attorney general runs that office but doesn't spend time trying cases in court. "Pennsylvanians deserve better."

      •  Makes me want to hug Seth Williams (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, Setsuna Mudo, bumiputera

        That line "That's just stupid".  

        How f'ing true, so rare to get some nice concise remark with a little flippancy that's true.

        I wonder if McCaffery will endorse in this race.  Seems likely the Philly area will coalesce behind Murphy anyways but another endorsement from McCaffery couldn't hurt.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:50:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MD-06 three-way race?? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Doctor Milad Pooran who was a footnote in the Rob Garagiola-John Delaney race until now just unveiled the endorsements of Howard Dean, Keith Ellison, and Raul Grijalva...what is going on here? Is Garagiola not the establishment candidate?

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 08:57:32 AM PST

    •  Pooran still is a footnote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, Setsuna Mudo

      Those names aren't going to carry much cachet. Great gets for him, but the Democratic machine is backing Garagiola, and Garagiola is going to be the nominee.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:01:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah, all things considered (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, bumiputera

        I'd rather be the leader (or #2 I guess) of the Senate in the state where I'm running than have endorsements from out of state. Still, wow. Not often that a previously ignored Some Dude gets big name national endorsements (only other example that comes to mind is Joe Miller).

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:04:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Garagiola is still the establishment candidate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, Setsuna Mudo

      to the extent there is.  Pooran would be a good Rep.  but these endorsements probably don't mean much; most voters in MD probably don't know who Ellison or Grijalva are (I do know, but don't really care about their endorsements.)  Dean has more currency but that's not enough to overcome a big edge in local establishment support and money with only five weeks to go.

      And then there's John Delaney, with somewhat dubious Democratic credentials that he glosses over in his ads and mailings.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:06:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Redist: I take it court-drawn lege maps (7+ / 0-)

    are now more likely?  My message to Cuomo:

    Let it go.  Let the courts draw it, then Democrats will have control over the trifecta for the decade.

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:05:30 AM PST

    •  The governor does not share... (9+ / 0-)

      Your optimistic appraisal of the situation.

      Also, I get the sense he's a self-serving bastard who really wants to be able to use a Republican-controlled Senate as a prop to show how "bipartisan" he can be and a foil in case he needs to stage a big fight to show off his progressive credentials.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:09:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bullocks. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, Setsuna Mudo

        NY Democrats are hardly known as evil librul hippies.  Cuomo will stay as popular as ever.  Besides, time is running out to redistrict as we speak.

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:11:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Every single New York Democrat but one... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, Setsuna Mudo, jncca

          Voted for same-sex marriage this time. New York's junior senator is tied for most liberal member of the Senate according to some metrics; New York's senior senator is an outspoken left-winger whom Republicans already love to hate; New York in general is perhaps second only to Massachusetts in how easy it is to stereotype as a bastion of effete, out-of-touch elitist liberalism.

          Gov. Cuomo is running for president in 2016. He doesn't just need to be popular in New York, he needs to look like a viable presidential contender. He needs a resume to point to. Being able to tout his approval rating in a state with a name synonymous with "East Coast liberal utopia" isn't going to cut it in a general election, and having gotten same-sex marriage done more than five years before Election Day 2016 isn't going to be enough of a selling point for progressives, unless he has something else.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:18:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He's had a good 2 years with a GOP Senate (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, gabjoh

            he can just tout that

            Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

            by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:19:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oh come on, you know better than that (5+ / 0-)

              Voters in 2016 - that's four years away - are going to want to know what Gov. Cuomo has done for us lately. He's too personally conservative to really want to do anything particularly progressive in the state beyond same-sex marriage; his win-win is to have a Republican Senate (which is why he wants the Senate to be able to draw its own lines) that he can rail against when he wants to appear progressive without having to worry about, you know, actually enacting very progressive policy, and mysteriously bridge all his differences with when he wants to look like a bipartisan leader.

              Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:23:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  He already got all he needed (0+ / 0-)

                In your world, where he "needs" the GOP Senate, what issue does he need it for.  He got gay marriage and tax increases on high earners with a GOP Senate.  He got unions to agree to cuts to pensions and wage freezes to look like he's not a union schill.

                Quite honestly he could run on that and be fine.  With a recovering economy to boot by 2016.  You seem to think he needs a 20-page list of accomplishments to run in 2016.

                What did Schweitzer and O'Malley do that's near as good as what Cuomo's done?

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:41:21 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  He hasn't gotten tax increases (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo

                  A few Republican senators made approving noises back in December, and since then, I'm unaware of any further activity.

                  So Gov. Cuomo had a productive first year in office. He's still got five more to go after that until he takes office as president (God forbid). It's easy to, in 2012, say, "Oh wow, Cuomo got so much done last year, I'm sure people will be impressed!" but 2016 is four years from now. If the American public has such a short memory that President Bush now has a higher favorability rating than President Obama does, are they really going to look back at what Cuomo did in 2011 and say, "Oh, that's nice!" His accomplishments last year are going to be ancient history by 2016 unless he continues to be a productive, presidential-looking governor.

                  Why else do you think he's acting like he's going to cave on his veto threat? Because he legitimately thinks Republicans have the right to add an extra district just to screw Democrats, and so badly mangle communities of interest that Long Island, which has three Democratic members of Congress and seven Democratic members of the Assembly, should have zero Democratic members of the Senate? Or because he has a vested interest in working with/against a Republican Senate for a few more years because he knows he can't just run on a good first year as governor when he's seeking the presidency four years from now?

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:50:29 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think the tax thing (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico, Setsuna Mudo

                    was a bill that passed.

                    However:  

                    Cuomo, 54, had vowed not to raise levies, and his opposition to extending a so-called millionaire’s tax -- actually a surcharge on income above $200,000 for individual filers -- drew criticism from fellow Democrats, unions and the Occupy Wall Street protest movement. The governor changed his stance after a midyear report showed a budget deficit of $350 million this year and a $3.5 billion gap in the fiscal year beginning April 1.

                    “This is a different economic reality than anyone could have anticipated,” Cuomo said during a press conference in Albany last night after the Senate approved the tax plan. “For this new reality that we’re facing, this is the best decision.”

                    The plan will raise about $1.9 billion in new revenue, less than the $4 billion generated by the millionaire’s tax, which expires Dec. 31. About $400 million will be spent on flood recovery and a youth-employment program, and the remaining $1.5 billion will be put toward the deficit, said Morris Peters, a Budget Division spokesman.

                    See the article for a specific comparison between Cuomo's bill, the previous surcharge, and the pre-surcharge status quo.

                    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                    by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:56:11 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  My mistake, then (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      gabjoh, Setsuna Mudo

                      $1.9 billion versus $4 billion? Laugh.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:57:01 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  You're forgetting the other part of that deal, (0+ / 0-)

                        which was a tax cut for most New Yorkers and a legitimate shift of the burden of financing the government upwards to the truly wealthy.

                        •  How legitimate? (0+ / 0-)

                          It's commonly known that a tax cut for the middle class costs less than a tax increase on the rich would make up, all things being equal. I'd have to look at the precise details of the legislation, but it seems to me there's a modest middle-class tax cut (which is nice) and either a relatively smaller tax cut for millionaires or the tiniest of increases, not sure which. Either way, it's pretty underwhelming.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:43:47 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Who got more of an increase in 2011 <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:54:55 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  I guess I was right, actually (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Setsuna Mudo

                      I was wrong about the tax bill passing, but right about him not getting tax increases.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:58:06 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Depends on your definition/standard (0+ / 0-)

                        As I recall from earlier articles, it's an increase from the pre-surcharge status quo, but (largely) a decrease from the surcharge.  Again, see the article I linked to.

                        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                        by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:05:06 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Plus (0+ / 0-)

                          I think there was a small cut for middle income people, which is probably an area that required some negotiation.

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:06:23 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  Any new tax code... (0+ / 0-)

                          That reduces tax revenues by more than $2 billion is not an increase.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:14:39 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The New York Post (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Setsuna Mudo, SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

                            seems to disagree (assuming they're talking about the same thing).  So...you're probably right.

                            By the way, I am pretty skeptical of Andrew Cuomo's image as well.  Certainly, he's very popular, and that shows political skill, whatever the state.  But, while I know little about him, I'm not at all sure he'd be able to deal with the national legislature the same way he deals with the New York state legislature, even looking at Cuomo's term as a nonideological exercise in "political skill".

                            The two situations are very different.  Mitch McConnell's top priority isn't preventing a court-drawn map of the United States (although, if a court could re-draw state boundaries, it might be), and I imagine that's one of Dean Skelos's top priorities.  And the mere fact that New York Senators are all have two-year election cycles might be a big difference.

                            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:22:42 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  But given the previously enacted cuts, (0+ / 0-)

                        was as much money needed? This isn't to say the cuts were worthwhile, just that you have to keep in mind how much money was needed.

                  •  If he wanted a GOP senate map (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Setsuna Mudo

                    He'd have let the Senate draw their own map, the Assembly draw their own map and then gotten a -1D/-1R congressional map.  he wouldn't have waded into the veto threat if his end goal was a GOP Senate.  

                    It makes no sense to use this strategy if he wanted a GOP Senate, none.  His approving a GOP gerrymander of the state Senate would not be an issue in a Presidential campaign.

                    Also, If Cuomo's first year is to be forgotten easily, I have no idea why you think Schweitzer will have some amazing legacy since his last year is pretty much Cuomo's first year, and it's hard to see Schweitzer doing anything politically positive for himself over the next few years.  I'd imagine he'll be consulting for mining companies by mid-2013.

                    You hold Cuomo/O'Malley/Schweitzer to wildly different criteria for some reason.  No one had a better year than Cuomo in 2011 yet you dislike his chances, but the people who didn't have as good of a year you put ahead and give them a pass on the same issues you rail against Cuomo for.  

                    Did O'Malley need to get gay marriage through a GOP Senate, umm no.  Yet Cuomo got it done first and made it a priority.  Did Schweitzer get it passed, no.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:01:44 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Nope (5+ / 0-)

                      Gov. Cuomo is trying to be a good-government reformer. So he sounds tough by threatening to veto, he quietly backs off in exchange for some bullshit concessions, and if any low-information voter was fooled into thinking he went ahead with the veto he was loudly threatening in the name of good government, the more's the better. If he just meekly agrees to the gerrymander, he looks like another Albany insider in a dirty system; he doesn't look like a leader or a reformer.

                      And there is a different standard for Gov. Schweitzer than there is for Cuomo. You can't just hang around in office for a few years treading water after getting something major done, because you still have the opportunity to do things and if people have to go back to your first year in office to find out any sign of real accomplishment, they're rightly going to ask what the hell you've been doing since then - coasting? Schweitzer won't be in office, so that won't be a fair question to ask of him.

                      If he wants to be president, the dumbest fucking thing Schweitzer could do is become a lobbyist or consultant for the mining industry. He's barely kept the peace between the industry and the environmentalist lobby in Montana as it is; that would be a really stupid move for him, and if that's what he ends up doing, I think it's a concrete sign he's not interested in the presidency.

                      As for Gov. O'Malley, yes I prefer him, because O'Malley is a hard-charging progressive, whereas Cuomo is a technocratic centrist. Yes, Cuomo is probably more shrewd than O'Malley, which is a trait I like well enough in President Obama, but I don't get a sense of Cuomo's core convictions the way I do with O'Malley (or Schweitzer, for that matter, who is still on my shit-list over the "jackasses" remark he made about Keystone XL opponents). I would have no doubt that a President O'Malley would fight like a motherfucker for progressive causes. I think a President Cuomo would fight like a motherfucker to govern from the middle, only moving on agenda items he thinks would get great press, and win reelection in 2020.

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:11:17 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  How do you know he'll tread water (0+ / 0-)

                        There's still years to come.  You also seem to under-estimate the value of an improving economy on his appeal, and NY will benefit from an improving economy better than many states.

                        Seriously, what did Schweitzer actually do that makes him so frigging great.  He won a GOP state, but did he actually do anything?

                        If O'Malley is such a progressive, how did Cuomo beat him to the punch on gay marriage?  What exactly has O'Malley done that Cuomo hasn't, and in less time?  What is O'Malley's signature accomplishment that makes him so spectacular that his hard charging progressiveness with huge Dem majorities is matched by a centrist working with a GOP Senate?

                        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                        by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:28:49 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Gov. Cuomo would tread water... (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          gabjoh, Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8, bumiputera

                          Because he's to the right of Assembly and Senate Democrats generally. Instead of having a Republican bogeyman to blame the slow pace in Albany on, he would have to accept responsibility for being the guy checking the progressives in the state legislature, or else cede to Gov. O'Malley an issue he could use in 2016, which is that O'Malley has had to wrestle with members of his own party.

                          Here's what makes O'Malley so great: he goes on TV and he sells the Democratic Party. He sells President Obama. He speaks convincingly and with conviction. He's a party-builder, a team player, and a voice of confidence. In Annapolis, he has shepherded the state through a time of economic difficulty and transition (with the rapid growth in D.C. and the natural decline of Baltimore's traditional industries) with aplomb. And despite having to deal with a far more socially conservative Democratic Party (this is still a border state, remember), he did get same-sex marriage this year, and he didn't have to trade anything for it the way Cuomo did.

                          But I think we're veering off topic with preferences. My original point was that Cuomo has far more to gain electorally with a Republican-controlled Senate than he does by giving Democrats a boost in taking it back.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:38:06 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  And my point is (0+ / 0-)

                            That Cuomo doesn't have more to gain from a GOP Senate.  Its not like there are a lot of liberal ideas coming from the Assembly that he's suppressing.

                            And giving O'Malley a pass on getting social issues passed with a 2/3 majority in both houses is kind of made up.  If he was such a leader/party builder he would have pushed the issue sooner.  He wasn't a leader on this issue, he was a complete follower...to Cuomo.

                            Perhaps he goes on TV and talks up the party because he has those 2/3 majorities in both houses and can get away with it?

                            And saying that he's had to deal with more of a economic decline than New York isn't fair, the financial mess hit NYC harder than anywhere else.

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:05:28 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  And the recession killed Baltimore (0+ / 0-)

                            It's a port city that primarily traffics in shipping elastic goods. Yet Gov. O'Malley has done a good job with that.

                            Gov. Cuomo's Democrats are mostly from New York City, a bastion of liberal tolerance, and fairly liberal cities upstate. A solid number of O'Malley's Democrats are either Demosaurs from the culturally Southern Eastern Shore or Southern Maryland, or they're African American Baptists from 85% nonwhite Prince George's County. It's a conservadem block - at least socially - that Cuomo just doesn't have to deal with. The Maryland Democratic Party is a far bigger tent in terms of ideology and geography than the New York State Democratic Committee.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:12:03 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Schweitzer (5+ / 0-)

                          The argument for him isn't that he has a unique record of accomplishments in Montana, it's that he can appeal to rural and small-town voters without losing ground in the cities and suburbs. Similar to Clinton, but without the personal foibles.

                          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                          by sacman701 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:56:10 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Is there evidence (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Setsuna Mudo

                            That Clinton's political success is rooted in having a narrower discrepancy between his rural/small town performance and his urban/suburban performance relative to other Democrats (as opposed to just doing better overall) and that Schweitzer would do the same?

                            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:02:48 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The "Man from Hope" thing... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            lordpet8

                            Was a pretty big chip he played in 1992, wasn't it?

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:13:21 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Clinton (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8

                            He won Kentucky both times.

                            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                            by sacman701 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:49:21 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Hm, let me see the history (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Setsuna Mudo

                            1984: Mondale got 39.37% in KY, compared to 40.56% nationally.

                            1988: Dukakis got 43.88% in KY, compared to 45.65% nationally.

                            1992: Clinton got 44.55% in KY, compared to 43.01% nationally.  He got 51.85% of the KY two-party vote, though, compared to 53.45% of the national two-party vote.  His margin over Bush in KY was 3.22 points, vs. 5.56 points nationally.

                            1996: Clinton got 45.84% in KY, compared to 49.23% nationally.  He got 50.53% of the KY two-party vote, though, compared to 54.12% of the national two-party vote.  His margin over Bush in KY was 0.96 points, vs. 9.49 points nationally.

                            I'm not sure whether to look at margins, absolute numbers, or share of the two-party vote in 1992 and 1996.  What do you think?  Looking at the absolute numbers in 1992, Clinton turned KY into a D+ state.  Looking at two-party vote share, his KY performance was about what you'd expect, given his strong national wins, from Mondale and Dukakis, both of whom ran close to their national numbers in KY.

                            (Although perhaps they could have scarcely done worse--as Bernstein says, I think, there is a "floor" of around 40% for most partisan candidates, at least nationally.)

                            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:26:43 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  KY (0+ / 0-)

                            Those 3 measures all say about the same thing, but Dems haven't been competitive there since. KY may or may not be the best example of Clinton's ability to appeal to rural voters, but he seems to have at least delayed the state's shift to the right at the presidential level.

                            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                            by sacman701 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:12:04 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I'm not so sure (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Setsuna Mudo

                            I think, just from this, KY was already right-shifting in 1996--Clinton did a bit worse relative to his national numbers than in 1992, even though he did well enough nationally to win the state anyway.  Admittedly, Gore's relative performance in KY was even worse--he ran about 7 points behind his national numbers there.

                            What we don't know is how another Democrat than Clinton would have done in the state in those particular elections, but then again, that's always unknowable.

                            And I just wish we had Clinton numbers without Perot, even if he didn't have an overall effect, as some say, he might have had local effects that largely cancelled out.

                            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                            by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:21:56 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  His accomplishments/ideals (3+ / 0-)

                            are implicitly agreed upon to some degree, no? I mean, he wouldn't have gotten reelected had he been a complete fuck up, and while he might not be Bernie Sanders, he did do stuff like veto the gay marriage ban.

                            But regardless, you hit the nail right on the head about why a lot of people support him. It's certainly one reason why I am open to his candidacy.

              •  That's pretty damn cynical. (0+ / 0-)

                What in particular makes you think he is "too personally conservative to really want to do anything particularly progressive in the state beyond same-sex marriage" in New York?

                •  Well, he opposed extending the millionaires' tax (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Setsuna Mudo, James Allen

                  He let the Senate Republicans do pretty much whatever they wanted with the budget last year in exchange for bringing same-sex marriage up for a vote. He doesn't seem to be all that interested in Democratic majorities, considering he's hedging against a veto of the egregious Skelosmander. I think he's clearly a socially liberal but fiscally conservative and generally moderate Democrat; honestly, I think we could have done better in New York, but he was coronated from the get-go.

                  Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:32:26 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  A few questions: (0+ / 0-)

                    1. Who else might we have gotten? Surely, New York is overflowing with Democrats, but who else might have even been a plausible candidate, let alone challenge him?

                    2. I've heard you make the argument that he let the Republicans do whatever they want with the budget, but I am not sure what to think. I guess you could say, where is your proof of this?

                    3. I don't want to sound like I am a proponent of 11th Dimensional Chess mind here, but do you think he might believe it's possible to get the senate majority back anyway, despite Republican attempts to protect themselves?

                    •  Just read the description... (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Setsuna Mudo, Taget, James Allen

                      Of the 2011-12 budget on Gov. Cuomo's website. Read it and tell me it doesn't sound like a Republican could have written it. Description here.

                      Deep cuts to public schools, paring down of public-sector union strength, aid for jurisdictions to send kids to charter schools!?

                      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:40:17 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  At every Democratic event I go to... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bumiputera

                        ...everyone just rails against Cuomo.  The two non-Staten Island specific topics drawing the most ire is his push to castrate the public pension system and his support for hydrofracking.

                        The unions cannot stand him in the least.

                        There is a strong itch for a primary challenge against Cuomo.  The question is whether anyone has the guts to try to scratch it.

                        •  this sounds like (0+ / 0-)

                          Ted Kulongoski's first term here in Oregon.  He got about 54% of the vote in the primary, with two challengers splitting the remainder of the vote.  IIRC SEIU backed a primary challenger, AFSCME didn't endorse in the primary, and I don't recall what the teachers unions did, but I don't think they backed him.

                          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                          by James Allen on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:58:54 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  Well the public view (0+ / 0-)

                          On public pensions is probably swinging wildly these days.  Its a hard issue to handle, especially as people are living so darn long.  

                          I think people relate to this issue more personally because so many private companies suspended 401K matches in recent years and people feel that pension reforms are the same thing.

                          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                          by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:05:02 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  For 2012-13 (0+ / 0-)

                        He's proposing a 4.1% increase in education aid, so the cuts are perpetual, just needed in dire times.

                        The unions agreed to the cuts to avoid layoffs; he's not weakening them for the sake of weakening them like Scott Walker.  I imagine the unions will agree to raise the retirement ages too since, it will only impact new employees, not existing ones.

                        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                        by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:59:55 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  By all accounts... (0+ / 0-)

                          The unions are pissed and feel like he's scapegoating them.

                          As for the education aid, what? I'm reading the numbers and the biggest cut in 2011-12 was to school aid. Higher ed and special ed were also cut.

                          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:14:04 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Right (0+ / 0-)

                            I said 2012-2013.  His proposal was submitted to the leg in January and included an increase in Education of about $800M.  It's the elementary/secondary figure, +4.13%

                            I didn't count university aid, since the SUNY system is already ridiculously cheap and they already have 5% increases passed for the next 5 years to balance their own budgets.  

                            But I'm sure the all-in number (K-12 and SUNY) is in there somewhere.

                            http://www.governor.ny.gov/...

                            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                            by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:23:20 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Amazing what happens... (0+ / 0-)

                            When you don't outsource the budget to Republicans in order to get something else you want. Nice of him to suggest putting money back into schools after already taking it out last year.

                            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:26:05 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah I agree with you actually in a way (4+ / 0-)

        There's really no political upside to a Democratic Senate for Cuomo.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:12:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hell yeah, Rep. Carnahan (8+ / 0-)

    Let's roll. I'm seriously tempted to dip into my savings just to throw $10 his way.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:20:06 AM PST

  •  I'm very suspicious of this court process. (0+ / 0-)

    I mean, the legislature doesn't have a hard and fast deadline (constitutionally, speaking) right?  So how does the court justify stepping in?

    One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

    by AUBoy2007 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:22:31 AM PST

    •  I'd be more suspicious (0+ / 0-)

      Of the fact that "compactness" is one of the criteria to be sued along with population deviation, COI, and minority voter rights.  

      Compactness does not help upstate NY districts, so this map might not be that great if compactness is actual a factor used in Mann's maps.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:43:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I haven't posted in a long time, but I am ready (12+ / 0-)

    to tune into election night coverage with y'all tonight.

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:25:41 AM PST

  •  Susana Martinez: hairstylist talked too much (9+ / 0-)

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    freakin' gays, first they want rights, now they want to make conversation. Could Martinez be any more oppressed?

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:27:45 AM PST

  •  WI-Sen: Tommy worked for birth control makers (10+ / 0-)

    Add this to the file of things Fitz and particularly Neumann can bludgeon Tommy with, he worked for companies that make contraception:

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-22 (College), WI-05 (Home)

    by glame on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:27:47 AM PST

  •  I'm sure there has been mentioned, but (10+ / 0-)

    isnt it funny how Romney is criticizing Santorum for trying to get Dem votes, when Romney has flat out said he voted for Paul Tsongas in 1992 because he thought he would be the weaker candidate against Bush.

    As Romney has previously said, what's sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander.

  •  WI-Gov: Falk and Barrett both lead! (13+ / 0-)
    PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
    Tom Barrett (49-46) and Kathleen Falk (48-47) both lead Scott Walker in recall election match ups: publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/c…

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:44:48 AM PST

  •  Walker job approval underwater 47/52 (5+ / 0-)

    and just 43/55 with indies.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:45:42 AM PST

  •  LaFollette would trail by one at 46-45. (5+ / 0-)

    Feingold still remains with huge 52-45 advantage if he would change his mind.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:46:39 AM PST

  •  If Barrett ran he would be big favorite (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, lordpet8

    at 45% to 18% for Falk, 14% for LaFollette, and 6% for Vinehout. If he doesn't run Falk would lead with 41% to 23% for LaFollette, and 13% for Vinehout.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:47:41 AM PST

  •  So Emily's List Tweeted my (6+ / 0-)

    recent diary. Brag, brag, brag.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:52:33 AM PST

  •  Rasmussen2000 has Thompson over Baldwin (9+ / 0-)

    by a 50-36 margin.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:53:07 AM PST

  •  Walker is indeed in trouble (5+ / 0-)

    It's not often that any recall is an actual race and these numbers are very good for Democrats. Walker stayed at the number he was at in previous polls, while the Democrats surged.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:57:49 AM PST

    •  All the while, he's blanketed the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, LordMike

      state with "positive" ads, spending millions. I've been wondering how the Senate recalls last year correlate to the statewide recall this year? Were the districts that we won more or less conservative than the state?

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:02:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mostly more conservative (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ndrwmls10, Setsuna Mudo, itskevin, gabjoh

        With the salient exception of SD32. From the calculations I did for my redistricting diary, these are the PVIs of the nine senate districts with recall races in 2011:

        SD 2: R+3 (big hold for a "moderate" R)
        SD 8: R+2 (Republican hold)
        SD 10: R+4 (easy Republican hold against a Some Gal)
        SD 12: R+2 (Democratic hold)
        SD 14: R+3 (close Republican hold)
        SD 18: R+4 (close Democratic gain)
        SD 22: D+3 (easy Democratic hold)
        SD 30: D+1 (Democratic hold by a 2:1 margin against an awful candidate)
        SD 32: D+6 (crushing Democratic gain)

        What we have this year:

        SD 13: R+7 (Big Fitz v. Compas)
        SD 21: D+1 (Wanggaard v. Lehman)
        SD 23: EVEN (Moulton v. Dexter)
        SD 29: R+1 (Galloway v. Siedel)
        WI-Gov: D+2 (Walker v. ???)
        WI-LtGov: D+2 (Kleefisch v. ???)

        Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

        by fearlessfred14 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:16:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not an easy correlation, but looks (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Setsuna Mudo

          at least somewhat good for us.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:25:28 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The only races that didn't follow the PVI were (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            SD 18 (narrow win with a scandal) and SD 12 (incumbent).    

            Another way of looking at it, though, is that the only recalls that "worked" had a scandal (SD 18) or a fairly-large PVI disadvantage (SD 32).  There aren't any Kapankes in the 2012 recalls.  

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:28:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  D+6 isn't terribly large (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              R30A, Setsuna Mudo

              We have a D+6 state senate district where a Republican won re-election easily last year.  He spent most of his time trying to get Dudley elected governor.  Barely campaigned for himself.

              We won big in Kapanke's district.  It is a bit more Democratic than some of the others up this year.  We don't need to win big in them, we just need to win.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:36:13 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  D+6 is pretty big, depending on the details (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo

                Even after 2010, only one Republican in Congress holds a D+6 or worse district--Dold(!).  And that PVI might be a bit inflated by Obama's home-state effect.  I think there's a big difference between D+1/Even and D+6.

                But I also think last year's recalls don't really have a lot of information in them relevant to this year's recalls.  The districts are different, but--which might be more important than anything--the overall political environment is different, one way or another.  

                26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:42:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  What doesn't show here is candidate quality (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo

              which mattered a LOT in the recalls, mainly in the margin of victory. Cowles (R, SD-2) and Holperin (D, SD-12) were very high quality candidates as it turned out, while Moore (D, SD-10), Simac (R, SD-12), and Steitz (R, SD-22) had serious issues. VanderLeest (R, SD-30) goes in the special category of candidates who publicly deny smoking crack. Hopper (R, SD-18) and Clark (D, SD-14) had more minor issues that nonetheless made the difference in their close defeats.

              Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

              by fearlessfred14 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:38:41 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hopper, to be sure. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Setsuna Mudo

                I don't know enough about the other races.  But remember that one of the biggest factors in candidate quality (broadly speaking) might be a simple one--incumbency.  

                26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:44:09 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Wait til more charges come down. (4+ / 0-)

      Rumor has it what we've already heard is the tip of the iceberg.

    •  The ethics problems obviously are hurting him (0+ / 0-)

      This is now two polls showing Walker heading south.

      The only real explanation is the ethics scandal, because he's otherwise alone on the airwaves with millions in ads between him and his allies.

      The other point of attack that should work if exploited is that Wisconsin's economy has stalled while the rest of the country is starting to thrive.  That's an easy thing to pin on Walker with voters.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 05:02:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dems need to run an elderstatesman type... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, Setsuna Mudo

    State is too divided to pit bombthrower like Falk against Walker and both sides just dig in and the state is 48-48 already dug in according to PPP.  

  •  WI (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, ChadmanFL, bumiputera

    According to PPP, Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca trails Walker 48-46. With 57% not really having an opinion of him, I think Barca could win over some people and be a pretty good candidate.

  •  Low turnout in Michigan reported... (0+ / 0-)

    Means Mitt will likely win by 5+, but will also once again show no enthusiasm for candidates if turnout way dwon from 800,000 that voted in 2008.  

  •  Roanoke poll: Allen by 8 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

    Two week poll of "residents."  High undecided (18%).

    http://roanoke.edu/...

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:42:56 AM PST

  •  Gallup really committed to this outlier thing (6+ / 0-)

    They have Obama down 5 points in one day at 43-50. Admittedly, Ras and PPP have Obama down from last week's highs, but not as much.

  •  LA-04: Crawford not running (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits

    http://dailykingfish.com/...

    Re-posted from weekend digest...

    Louisiana Democrats are trying to target John "The Onion is a real news source" Fleming.  But the candidate they were recruiting, former Shreveport fire chief Brian Crawford just said no.  There are no obvious replacements right now, though with the filing deadline not until August 17, there's still plenty of time.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college) Currently helping elect great young progressives to the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee! http://www.newleadersofneworleans.com/

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:04:09 AM PST

  •  Good news for your home state, GradyDem: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:09:27 AM PST

  •  Not interested in litigating gas prices (7+ / 0-)

    So I'll post this here.

    Great enthusiasm numbers in PPP/Kos/SEIU weekly poll.

    "Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not at all excited about voting in the 2012 elections?"

    Democrat 60 23 17
    Republican 52 28 20
    Independent/Other 36 27 37
    Liberal 60 26 14
    Moderate 45 26 29
    Conservative 54 25 21
    White 46 27 27
    African-American 76 20 4
    Asian 46 43 11
    Hispanic 58 20 22

    The toplines are also better than I feared. 48-48 job approval, 49-47 favorable and 48-45 over generic Republican. All very encouraging given other data these last couple days.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:13:47 AM PST

  •  The Future of Democrats in Arizona (6+ / 0-)

    This articlefrom Dave Weigel is a little old, so perhaps it's been posted already, but in case it hasn't been, I figured I'd mention it. It's odd in the sense that it's more a collection of anecdotes than anything else, but it does highlight the ways in which the Republicans are failing and alludes to how Democrats can make gains. This part in particular stood out:

    This was not a fluke. In 2011, he helped elect a Latino city councilman in a district that had never had one. Latino turnout surged from 9 percent to 35 percent. “It was basic grassroots politics, but no one had done it before,” he says. “The problem with the Latino vote had been that our candidates were missing half of what they needed. We’d see somebody with money and no grassroots, or somebody with organizing skills and no money. That was the problem, and I think we figured it out.” This, plus the legislature’s antics, explain why the Obama campaign is opening its fourth Arizona office.
    I don't want to make it seem like the solution to every problem is to bring new voters into the process. It most certainly is not, even in states where there's a lot of untapped potential, and in a lot of states where we are struggling, there are no demographic trends to exploit. Still, in a lot of the South and the Southwest, we are heading in the right direction and will be much more successful if we can replicate what happened when they tried to elect a Latino city councilman. But outside of Arizona and Georgia, for instance, as I mentioned before, the population changes are almost non-existent, or simply a long way off. Still, why not try?

    This past weekend, Setsuna Mudo and I started talking about our hopeless it is in a lot of states like Alabama or Tennessee. I agree that it appears dire, but like I said in my response to her, I'm not ready to give up. In a statewide contest, where one vote is as good as the other, keeping the margins smaller is definitely helpful. But even in areas where it's going to be a huge problem to elect Democrats, we should try to do it. Setsuna Mudo told me that it's massively difficult if not impossible to penetrate the largely cultural barriers, but to me, that sounds like a matter of trying to talk to people, which we aren't doing nearly as much, if at all, right now.

  •  New WaPo/ABC polling starting to dribble out (10+ / 0-)

    Only favorability numbers so far...

    Obama: 51/45
    Romney: 33/46
    Santorum: 34/37

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    •  Sargent fleshes them out: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, DCCyclone
      [The polling] finds that Romney’s favorability rating nationally is at just 37 percent among conservative Republicans and independents with incomes of under $50,000, versus 40 percent of them who view him unfavorably. Rick Santorum performs better with this group, but since Romney is still the likely nominee, this isn’t really about Sanorum; it’s about Romney’s long term prospects.

      The Post polling team provides more numbers: Among non-college whites across the board, Romney’s favorability rating is also at 37 percent. (Obama’s favorability among these voters is the same; yet a competitive Republican is supposed to have a very significant advantage over a Democrat in presidential elections.) Even worse, Romney’s numbers among independents across the board are an abysmal 29-44, down from 37-40 earlier this month.

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
      •  I'm beginning to seriously suspect... (10+ / 0-)

        That Romney is actually unelectable. As in, he has become toxic enough, his image has been permanently degraded badly enough, that he just cannot win in November barring a seismic, historic collapse on President Obama's part.

        Santorum's numbers are substantially better than Romney's now, but I don't think a man who says contraception is morally wrong, separation of church and state is nauseating, homosexuality is equivalent to "man on dog", and not every American should have the opportunity to get a college degree is electable either.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:41:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Romney is definitely unelectable (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, James Allen

          The only way he could possibly win is we have another repeat of fall 2008 in terms of the economy.

          Obama probably wins by 8% given current trends.

          •  Clinton's numbers were lousy in the spring of '92 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            The numbers can change over time.  I really think it's wrong to say that Romney is unelectable.

            The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

            by Paleo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:12:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't say that just yet (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          Don't get me wrong: I think Romney is a seriously weak GE candidate and I think right now the odds look quite good for a comfortable Obama reelection. But I still feel a lot of the standard caveats bear repeating. A lot can still happen in the next eight months - oil prices could push down U.S. growth, especially if there's an Israeli military conflict with Iran, or a messy Greek exit from the Euro could push us back into recession, for example.

          Favorability ratings can change. If things get off track and Obama's approvals fall, Romney could still win. The best example would be Bill Clinton actually, whose favorability ratings were horrible through the summer of '92, and who stumbled to the nomination after a lot of surprising defeats to Jerry Brown (who for his own part was in kind of a kooky, unelectable phase of his own).

        •  Like others here, I think it's too soon (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, lordpet8

          to say that for sure. But there are definitely warning signs.

          He's got about eight months, if he is the nominee, to turn this around. That's more than enough time to do it, I think, but what does he do differently? I'm actually not sure what is worse: his personality and mannerisms and how they make him conduct his campaign, or the way in which the rabid Republican base boxes him into a corner.

          Also, when does Obama pounce? I'm starting to think that a few effective ads that tar him as a tool of the plutocrats (i.e. the sort of thing that shows a dump truck of money being left on his driveway, but classier and less over the top) would finish him off for good.

    •  Last poll Obama was 53/43 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Setsuna Mudo

      And his approval disapproval was 50-46.  So it may be something like 48-48 this time.

      The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

      by Paleo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:22:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI-02: Honolulu Civil Beat callout to Xenocrypt (15+ / 0-)

    http://www.civilbeat.com/...

    Congrats, Xenocrypt!

    In his series of articles, contributor Xenocrypt also illustrates how Gabbard has received sizable contributions from friends, family and associates of her father. He goes further, linking many of those contributors to donations given to Mike Gabbard's 2004 congressional run and Republican Rick Reed's 1994 challenge to U.S. Senator Daniel K. Inouye.
    The author (Chad Blair) cites more from Xenocrypt's diaries, and notes
    Gabbard and her campaign manager did not respond to Civil Beat's questions about the Daily Kos articles, including ones that asked about connections between Butler and Mike Gabbard.
    He notes Tulsi's more generic response:
    As with many people, loving my parents doesn't mean I agree with them on everything. I am pro-choice. I want to overturn the Defense of Marriage Act, and I support the Respect for Marriage Act. As a combat veteran, I supported and successfully implemented the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell in my Army Guard unit. And most importantly, I want to create an economy where every American can succeed.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:35:53 AM PST

  •  Ohio U Cinci poll (6+ / 0-)

    Santorum 37-26 over Mittens. Win or lose today, Rick is definitely stronger in OH vs. MI
    http://www.ipr.uc.edu/...

    The cacti are the right height...I love cars!

    by bismuth on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:47:29 AM PST

  •  Don't you mean? (3+ / 0-)

    "Democratic" financier John Delaney

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 11:55:50 AM PST

  •  Ann Romney blames the media (8+ / 0-)

    link.

    Not sure what stage of political grief "blame the media" is. I guess it's a form of denial.  

    •  Trotting out the loser-speak (4+ / 0-)

      As Chachy articulated very well below, I'm not sure why the Romney camp is doing this. Romney is going to win by far the most delegates tonight unless Santorum totally defies expectations in Arizona (I'd put Romney as a 4:1 favorite to win the state, and he probably will win it easily), yet he's already acting like a loser, boo-hooing about Santorum's robocall to Democrats, boo-hooing about media bias, etc. He is effectively guaranteeing that Santorum is going to win the air war even as he carts off far fewer delegates than Governor Gumby picks up. And the stakes can't be much higher, with Super Tuesday one week away and Washington in the interceding weekend.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:04:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's an odd thing (0+ / 0-)

        But is it possible it's an actual "strategy"?  I doubt it but consider this.

        Isn't being against the liberal media something foam-at-the-mouth conservatives like?  And isn't being for purity in GOP primaries something that same group would also like.

        Of course their campaign isn't thinking this way, there far too dumb.  And of course its unlikely to work, as my proposition is questionable at best.  

        But maybe somewhere, some why they are actually doing this intentionally.  

        If I were Romney and I won Michigan I'd make much of my speech about the media calling him dead, his comeback, talking about Santorum being a closet Democrat to try and get wins, etc.  All of that could be good stuff; good in the sense that its better than what Romney would normally say.  

        Because his normal speeches are whimsically bad.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:09:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Desperation (0+ / 0-)

        They know that if nothing changes by a month from now they will lost and lost and lost everywhere for weeks.

        They know they have lost unless they change things up dramatically (which in this race is certainly possible).

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:19:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think they are doing this because they (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, James Allen, askew

        understand the symbolism of an MI loss.

        A home state loss to a much weaker candidate like Santorum will give Rick a lot of momentum, regardless of how many delegates Romney picks up.

  •  Preemptively complaining about election coverage (4+ / 0-)

    Romney is clearly going to get a solid win tonight. He'll get all the delegates in Arizona, and split them in MI. The delegate math gets longer and longer for Santorum. And Romney looks all but certain to gain a ton in the popular vote, too, fwiw. This is all true regardless of who wins Michigan.

    But all that's going to matter in terms of coverage is who wins MI. 1000-vote win for Romney? Big win for him! Escaped the jaws of defeat! 1000-vote win for Santorum? What an upset! Huge momentum for Super Tuesday! But that 2000-vote difference is utterly trivial.

    Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has played right into this - presumably because they are the worst campaign ever (with the possible exception of all other 2012 republican campaigns) - by staking everything on MI, and predicting a win there, when it would be perfectly reasonable and legitimate to claim the night as an overall huge win for him because of AZ.

    Of course, this is all great for us. Sure, give Santorum the chance to claim a huge victory! But, still. The media are stupid.

    •  Not hardly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Arizona is only 29 delegates.  You need 1100 to win.

      The delagtes from tonight mean virtually nothing.  At most, one guy will get about 31 more than the other guy.

      Mitt is on his last legs if he loses Michigan in the popular vote.  Conversely, if he can win MI, he is back in it.

      Today represents the end of the Mitt-friendly calendar.  Next month is one Santorum (or Newt) place after another... except for Puerto Rico/Samoa/etc.

      If Mitt can't win Michigan in the primary, he can't win the presidency, but he also is less than 50% to win the nomination.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:13:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  To clarify (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        I meant after Super Tuesday.  Super Tuesday is a Santorum day, but obviously Mitt will win MA and ID at least.

        After that comes WY, which is Mitt for sure, but then every state the rest of the month is Santorum's.

        April 3rd, Rick winner-take-alls WI 39 delegates, and Maryland's winner-take-all 37 are a tossup now, but Mitt won't have won a state in a month.

        The next day Mitt has to look forward to isn't until the great northestern primary on April 24, which could be very interesting.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:31:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Except (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        Massachusetts.  And Virginia.  And maybe vermont.  maybe Alaska.  maybe Idaho (27% Mormon).  Maybe Puerto Rico.  maybe Hawaii (5% Mormon).  maybe Wyoming (11% Mormon).

        And I think Illinois is going to be hard to read, even a month out, but could go to either one.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:37:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I dont know if you can really blame the Romney (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      campaign.

      Delegates, Shmelegates, if you cant win your home state, that's a big problem.

  •  SUSA Georgia general poll (4+ / 0-)

    Obama trailing Romney by 7, Santorum and Gingrich by 4, and Paul by 3.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 12:28:44 PM PST

  •  Texas Court Ordered Plan ... (4+ / 0-)

    is up on Redviewer

    http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/...

    Looks like Doggett did not get his district back.

  •  NC Filing for Congress - Dems in all 13 Races (6+ / 0-)

    With NC filing closing in less than 24 hours, we now have Democratic candidates in all 13 races. As of 3 PM today:

    http://www.ncsbe.gov/...

    NC-1
    Dan Whittacre (D). G. K. Butterfield (D-Inc)
    Darryl Holloman (R)

    NC-2
    Toni Morris (D), Steve Wilkins (D)
    Renee Ellmers (R-Inc), Sonya Holmes (R), Clement F. Munno (R), Richard Speer (R)

    NC-3
    Erik Anderson (D)
    Walter B. Jones (R-Inc), Frank Palombo (R)

    NC-4
    David Price (D-Inc)
    George Frank Hutchins (R), Jim Allen (R), Tim D'Annunzio (R)

    NC-5
    Elisabeth Motsinger (D)
    Virginia Foxx (R)

    NC-6
    Tony Foriest (D)
    Billy Yow (R), Howard Coble (R-Inc)

    NC-7
    Mike McIntyre (D-Inc)
    Ilario Gregory Pantano (R), David Rouzer (R), Randy Crow (R)

    NC-8
    Larry Kissell (D-Inc), Marcus W. Williams (D)
    Richard Hudson (R), Scott Keadle (R), Vernon Robinson (R), Fred F. Steen II (R), John M. Whitley, (R)

    NC-9 (OPEN)
    Jennifer Roberts (D)
    Andy Dulin (R), Jon Gauthier (R), Ric Killian (R), Edwin B. Peacock III (R), Jim Pendergraph (R), Michael Shaffer (R), Mike Steinberg (R), Dan Barry (R), Ken Leonczyk (R)
    Curtis Campbell (LIB)

    NC-10
    Patsy Keever (D), Timothy Murphy (D)
    Ken H. Fortenberry (R), Patrick McHenry (R-Inc), Don Peterson (R)

    NC-11 (OPEN)
    Tom Hill (D), Hayden Rogers (D), Cecil Bothwell (D)
    Jeff Hunt (R), Mark Meadows (R), Chris Petrella (R), Kenny West (R), Ethan Wingfield (R), Spence Campbell (R), Susan Harris (R), Vance Patterson (R)

    NC-12
    Matt Newton (D), Mel Watt (D-Inc)
    Jack Brosch (R)

    NC-13 (OPEN)
    Bernard A. Holliday (D)
    George Holding (R), Paul Y. Coble (R)

  •  NY Mayor: Liu Campaign Treasurer arrested. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, jj32, Darth Jeff
    New York City Comptroller John Liu, who is campaigning for Mayor in 2013, saw his campaign treasurer Jenny Hou arrested this morning on fraud charges by the FBI and the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York. The charges represent the latest legal blow for Mr. Liu’s campaign. One of his chief fundraisers was arrested last November for orchestrating an illegal fundraising scheme.
    http://www.politicker.com/...

    This reminds me of three years ago when a young woman race for city council on the South Shore.  A young inexperienced sacrificial lamb.  One of the rookie mistakes she made was appointing her sister to be campaign treasurer.  Everyone teased her that she must not love her.

    The reason it was a bad idea?  Campaign finance laws are complicated and the treasurer is liable for everything that happens.  They are the ones who always take the fall.  It is why you want someone very experienced who knows what the hell they are doing.  You don't appoint a 25 year old girl like Liu did.

    Needless to say this does not reflect very well on Liu, his mayoral campaign or their prospects.  And remember kids.  Be careful what you text.

    http://www.politicker.com/...

  •  #$@&*(^*%!!!!!! (5+ / 0-)

    The Texas maps are infuriating. My county divided into 5 districts. 1 goes to San Antonio (2 hour drive away), 1 to Fort Worth (4 hour drive). This is ridiculous.

  •  NE-02 Perhaps I'm too easily frightened (0+ / 0-)

    but

    Terry escaped with a 52-48 win, but Team Obama still frightened the pants off him.
    No way. I'm not clicking on no link, nohow, that might take me to a photo of Lee Terry with no pants on!

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:26:41 PM PST

  •  So, what's the bottom line on Texas? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, supercereal

    Goes from 23-9 to ?

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:41:58 PM PST

  •  Govs. Christie and O'Malley... (9+ / 0-)

    Really, really don't like each other. Story here.

    “Chris Christie’s brand of sort-of Don Rickles leadership is unusual,” O’Malley said. “The bombast and all of that stuff is entertaining, but it doesn’t make for good governance.”

    Christie didn't waste anytime poking fun at O'Malley's intelligence.

    "Listen.  Governor O'Malley is really not worthy of replying to, to tell you the truth," Christie said. "I mean, you know, he's not that smart, and he's not that good, but he is flippant, and so I give him credit for that.  Other than that, he's not that good."

    Rrrrrowr.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 01:48:20 PM PST

  •  MO1 fun (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, SaoMagnifico

    The race so far: Clay calls for federal oversight of the race because it took them a few extra moments to find his name in the voterfile, and Carnahan says Clay supported the map, and the STL mayor Slay backs Clay

    This primary and the other incumbent v. incumbent primaries on the state house level are not helpful to candidates running statewide or in nearby areas. It essentially ties down money in preventable races that could be donated to candidates facing Republicans in statewide races or in other districts.

    It's essentially a circular firing squad with the potential to hurt Dems in November. Awesome.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:04:46 PM PST

    •  Carnahan was absolutly stupid to do this. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      I'm sorry, but it's true. He could have run statewide. Instead he let his anger get the better of him.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:07:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  well (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, DCal, SaoMagnifico

        he doesn't really have anything to run for statewide without causing a primary.

        But there's nobody of note in MO2. But you know, we're not trying to win anything that Obama got under 52% in for some reason. Which should help us get back to 200 seats in the house.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:15:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am rooting for Carnahan (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dsh17, SaoMagnifico, jncca, GradyDem

          Normally I would probably want Clay to win because he is more progressive, but Clay's behavior in redistricting was so egregiously disloyal to the general interests of the Democratic party, and that simply has to be punished.

          •  Clay's denying the claim (0+ / 0-)

            Another story on filing day

            Nasheed and Hubbard are not necessarily popular Dems and are the type who have voted with Republicans to trade favors and they're both facing solid opposition in August. It seems kind of naive to just believe their claims without evidence.

            And a counterargument from Jeff Smith on Twitter notes that had Robin not lost by 14/15, the House is not that Republican. And that a lot of those losses occurred in Russ' district.

            Essentially this primary is not good for the interests of electing Dems to other offices. One outcome definitely depresses turnout for Claire McCaskill and other Dems in November.

            But some of the strategy involved is interesting. For example, Slay is running for re-election next Spring and is fortifying himself by endorsing Clay, since the areas most likely to support Clay regularly vote against Slay. It won't necessarily win him those areas, but it'll make it harder to beat him in a Dem primary or general election.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:37:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Oh my FUCKING god! (13+ / 0-)
    Maine Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe is not running for re-election, according to 2 source familiar with decision. HUGE news.
    https://twitter.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:08:25 PM PST

  •  Holy shit (5+ / 0-)

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:08:51 PM PST

  •  Austin Area of Map Screams Dummymander... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, James Allen

    Looking at the numbers -

    TX-17: 41%-58%
    TX-21: 42%-56%
    TX-10: 43%-56%
    TX-25: 43%-56%
    TX-31: 43%-56%

    Although all these seats are Likely R at the least, five of the nine least safe Solid R seats, are essentially adjacent.  

    They might be in the clear for now (although I could see the right conservadem holding one of these down), but given they're all adjacent and take in areas around Austin, they're likely to experience the same partisan shifts as a group.  Meaning with higher minority turnout it's plausible they'd all fall together.  

  •  Olympia Snowe is retiring! (0+ / 0-)

    Link when I get it. Congratulations Sen. Dunlap!

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:12:09 PM PST

    •  I'd think someone more high profile (0+ / 0-)

      would get in. This is a perfect opportunity for Democrats.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:13:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mike Michaud would walk away with it. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:15:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Eh, I'd rather get someone more liberal. (5+ / 0-)

          I think this seat can support it. Not to mention someone who is pro-choice. Olympia Snowe was one of the few pro-choice Republicans.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:18:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think he and Dunlap are rather close (0+ / 0-)

          so I think he'll stay out out of respect for Dunlap, Michaud is quite conservative and Dunlap is somewhat to his left so this pleases me. Republicans have no one of stature to run so in all honesty I don't think the slight difference in candidate quality will matter that much.

          (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:22:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  We need to support the Democrats (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, jncca

        Who had the courage to be running when they thought they were going up against Snowe, in all likelihood. Chris Coons is a Senator now because we believed in that. There was talk about replacing him on the ballot when Castle lost the Republican primary. Scott McAdams too. It's for to establishmentarian.

        I support Cynthia Dill.

        24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:55:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Link. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen, askew, itskevin

      Link here.

      Her statement:

      "After an extraordinary amount of reflection and consideration, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate.

      "After 33 years in the Congress this was not an easy decision. My husband and I are in good health. We have laid an exceptionally strong foundation for the campaign, and I have no doubt I would have won re-election. It has been an indescribable honor and immeasurable privilege to serve the people of Maine, first in both houses of Maine's legislature and later in both houses of Congress. To this day, I remain deeply passionate about public service, and I cherish the opportunity I have been given for nearly four decades to help improve the lives of my fellow Mainers.

      "As I have long said, what motivates me is producing results for those who have entrusted me to be their voice and their champion, and I am filled with that same sense of responsibility today as I was on my first day in the Maine House of Representatives. I do find it frustrating, however, that an atmosphere of polarization and 'my way or the highway' ideologies has become pervasive in campaigns and in our governing institutions.

      "With my Spartan ancestry I am a fighter at heart; and I am well prepared for the electoral battle, so that is not the issue. However, what I have had to consider is how productive an additional term would be. Unfortunately, I do not realistically expect the partisanship of recent years in the Senate to change over the short term. So at this stage of my tenure in public service, I have concluded that I am not prepared to commit myself to an additional six years in the Senate, which is what a fourth term would entail.

      "As I enter a new chapter, I see a vital need for the political center in order for our democracy to flourish and to find solutions that unite rather than divide us. It is time for change in the way we govern, and I believe there are unique opportunities to build support for that change from outside the United States Senate. I intend to help give voice to my fellow citizens who believe, as I do, that we must return to an era of civility in government driven by a common purpose to fulfill the promise that is unique to America.

      "In the meantime, as I complete my third term, I look forward to continuing to fight for the people of Maine and the future of our nation. And I will be forever and unyieldingly grateful for the trust that the people of Maine have placed in me, and for the phenomenal friendship and assistance I have received over the years from my colleagues, my supporters, and my staff, both in Maine and in Washington."

      I could die happy right now.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:14:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This makes up for Ben Nelson. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, askew, itskevin

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:18:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Let me say this. (0+ / 0-)

      I hope Dunlap is the next senator from maine. Dunlap deserves this, it would upset me if some opportunist who was too scared or self-serving to run when it was tough wants the nomination now that the going is good. Now, there's certainly nothing wrong with not wanting to degrade yourself by getting crushed by Snowe but don't try to take the nomination away from the guy who had the honor to stand up and do it when no one else did; that guy should reap the reward. And as GradyDem was quick to point out it's also always good to incentivize taking one for the team. It sets good precedent. I also agree with this, and I'd hope it's a sentiment that could especially be appreciated here; so here's to the concept of Sen. Dunlap, for having the guts to take on the Snowe juggernaut while lesser men cowered!

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:35:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Snowe retirement confirmed. (7+ / 0-)

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Finally, Democrats can win back George Mitchell's seat.

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:14:20 PM PST

  •  Who are the potential Demoratic candidates (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, supercereal

    for Maine? Lets start a list.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:16:34 PM PST

  •  I think Chellie Pingree (6+ / 0-)

    would be a good choice for that seat. I'd take a member of the Progressive Caucus over a Blue Dog like Michaud any day of the week.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 02:17:16 PM PST

  •  That's it! Democrats hold the senate. :) (5+ / 0-)
  •  The Snowe thread is a mess (5+ / 0-)

    Probably not a slam dunk but a massive piece of good fortune all the same. Now, if Kerrey runs in NE, Mourdock defeats Lugar in IN, Thompson isn't the nominee in WI and Carmona can build some name rec in AZ then things really do look better!

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 03:22:34 PM PST

  •  I'd be fine with any of those Dems (0+ / 0-)

    except Baldacci, and facing any of the Republicans except Cohen.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 03:29:20 PM PST

  •  I would love Stephen King (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, Setsuna Mudo

    to run for the Senate, or better maybe an open CD. He lives in Michaud's I believe. Though I know this is just fantasy haha.

    Personally I suspect both Michaud and Pingree will run. Honestly I would rather just Pingree run. I have nothing whatsoever wrong with Michaud, he is a good fit in his district. However if the R stays in his race (he should) then that becomes a tossup tilting R even.

    Any Democrat will win the general, why take a more moderate one and possibly lose a CD at the same time? Pingree is just the more natural fit here. Plus her daughter would be a great successor to her.  

    "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

    by drhoosierdem on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 03:54:21 PM PST

    •  I think King won't run.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLDemocrat, Setsuna Mudo

      citing his macular degeneration.

      Also, I seriously, for some reason, do not want Pingree to run. She had explicitly said she would not run while Snowe was in the race, and for her to switch around now that Snowe's out would just make me think she's a coward. Let the Democrats who were actually running having a chance.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 04:16:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Theoretically you could say those (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drhoosierdem, NMLib

        who got in were idiots to do so, based on the info they had. I think both are wrong. This is just how politics works. Pingree will probably get in and win the nomination.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 04:28:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's not really fair (3+ / 0-)

        If Pingree had run against Snowe, she would have forfeited a safe House seat to run against someone she would have had no chance of beating (remember that Susan Collins, who is generally less popular than Olympia Snowe, dispatched Tom Allen by a 20 point margin in 2008).

        It wasn't cowardly, it was prudent.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 05:07:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  100% agree with both of you guys (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NMLib, SaoMagnifico, jncca

          It would have been a very stupid move for Pingree to have run with Snowe still in. I mean ending a safe House tenure to get beat by 20+ points is just not a sound choice.

          However if Michaud bows out then this is now hers for the taking. She was not a coward for running, she was a politician with a brain. I really can't see how you can judge either Michaud or her for declining.

          As for the current field, well I'm glad we had them as sac lambs when Snowe was in, but lets be honest they are not exactly top tier recruits. They were just resume shopping. Taking one for the team, and getting a future shot later on with their improved name id from this run.

           Its a smart and common practice. But not one that should deprive more deserving candidates. I mean we can't act like they were doing some amazing favor. They really weren't giving up much of anything in doing this.

          Ultimately I think its safe to say that either Michaud or Pingree gets the nod. I do hope they both do not run though. As for the current field, give them a pat on the back, thank them for their time in the race and hope they get the hint and move on.

          "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

          by drhoosierdem on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 09:16:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't necessarily judge her for declining (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo

            But I would if she changed her mind now that Snowe was out. It would be cravenly opportunistic (which I know, for a politician is like calling the sky blue) when there are already 4 people running in the Democratic primary, and not Some Dudes either.

            24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 12:20:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Honestly they pretty much are some dudes (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NMLib

              I don't think it would be cravenly opportunistic at all. I think it is a completely logical move, one anyone would make. Politics ain't beanbag. This race is a completely different one then it was a few days ago. This is now a race, it wasn't before. Just because the current field was willing to be defeated by Snowe does not mean that they are more deserving of this seat.

              "Osama bin Laden is dead and General Motors is alive." -Vice President Joe Biden

              by drhoosierdem on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 04:38:47 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  They're not top-tier either (0+ / 0-)

              Plus, both of the actual electeds have to deal with term-limits (Cynthia Dill would be term-limited in 2016, Jon Hinck is term-limited in 2014).

              The other two are a former SoS (who lost re-election) and the other guy, Benjamin Pollard, is a "Portland home builder" per Wikipedia, so Pollard is definitely a some dude.

              The rest are second and third tier candidates really.

              Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

              by NMLib on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 08:17:09 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Matt Dunlap, the former SoS (0+ / 0-)

                Did not lose re-election. The SoS in Maine is appointed by the Governor, and when the Republicans took control of the trifecta, they fired him.

                24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:36:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Why would you judge her for that? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              drhoosierdem

              Your point would be correct if Snowe herself was actually beatable, but really, if she won the primary (which, frankly, she was almost certainly going to win) then she'd be invincible in the general, Pingree would be setting herself up for another 20 point loss, just like her predecessor Tom Allen.

              I reiterate, Pingree's decision wasn't cowardly, it was reasonable, and if she runs now, it's again a reasonable decision based on changing circumstances.

              Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

              by NMLib on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 09:17:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  TX-35 news (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, KingofSpades, ChadmanFL
    Lloyd Doggett and Sylvia Romo have both announced that they will run in the newly court-drawn TX-35 (the "I-35 District) #txredistricting
    https://twitter.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 04:29:04 PM PST

  •  My main comment on ME-Sen for tonight (6+ / 0-)

    This news felt like this to me:

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 04:38:31 PM PST

  •  IN-09: Shelli Yoder talks about why she's running. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 05:00:51 PM PST

  •  Pingree's statement: (6+ / 0-)
    PINGREE CONSIDERING A BID - Statement from Chellie Pingree, Maine's local version of Elizabeth Warren: "This upcoming election is critical to the future of our working families around the country, and in the coming days I will carefully consider how I can best serve the people of Maine." Pingree's level of popularity among Democrats may only be eclipsed by her daughter, Hannah Pingree, speaker of the Maine House. The Mother Pingree told HuffPost Hill that she -- the mama, that is -- is "seriously considering" a bid. We don't know Hannah, so didn't ask her.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 05:27:26 PM PST

  •  Comments on Maine (5+ / 0-)

    I got physically excited when I saw this news.  I should note that I'm EXTREMELY difficult to truly excite, especially in a way that gets a physical reaction from me.  So when I yelled in joy at this news, I have to explain that this is probably the best political story I can recall in the last month or so, aside from maybe Romney's collapse and Kerrey running for Senate after all. :P  Of course, this news is going to cause me to completely rewrite my Senate analysis of Maine (I'm getting so depressed about this article lol ;__; ), but I'm disappointed in a really good way.

    As far as the current candidates in the field, I think we should offer due deference to their wishes and offer them the support they need.  However, I think it's clear that the establishment of the party wants Pingree or Michaund as the nominee. Something worth thinking about is that Cynthia Dill and Jon Hinck live in Pingree's district, and that Matt Dunlap lives in Michaund's district.  If Pingree does indeed run (something I'd personally like to see happen), I want to see a path cleared for Dill and Hinck to run for her House seat.  If Michaund runs, I want something similar to happen for Dunlap.  I'd personally like Pingree to be our nominee, but I want the current candidates to be lavishly rewarded by the state party for their bravery.  I think that could be a sort of compromise for these candidates (maybe Pingree jointly campaigning with the primary winner?).

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

    by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 07:27:36 PM PST

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