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For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.

Ahhh, the south. Where white Democrats are a dying breed (except maybe in Georgia). I've already diaried my Doubling maps for South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida, so this diary will be Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee (I'm waiting for political data on Kentucky to try drawing a map).

The adopted plans in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee

Previous Doubling Diaries: IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID

Alabama


Alabama gets 13 districts, one less than Double their current 7.

I am not completely sure what the Dem average is, because that is not made known on the DRA homepage. But once I know, I'll let y'all know.

1
VAP: 46.1 White, 50 Black
59 Obama, 60.9 Dem

Open; majority black. The west end of the black belt, and the black parts of Mobile. Jo Bonner lives in this district, but he'd run in the 2nd, which he lives inches from. Safe D, black pickup

2
VAP: 82.1 W, 11.2 B
25 Obama, 27 Dem

Jo Bonner (R-Mobile) runs here. Mobile and Baldwin Counties. Safe R

3
VAP: 45.7 W, 49.3 B
56.3 Obama, 54.6 Dem

Martha Roby (R-Montgomery) lives here; plurality black. Montgomery and Selma, and more of the black belt. Roby probably flees south to the 4th. This is the only district where Obama outperforms the Dem average. Bobby Bright could try to run here, but would probably be defeated by an African American in the primary. Likely D, black opportunity

4
VAP: 73.8 W, 20.7 B
27.9 Obama, 34.7 Dem

Open. Southern tier, including the midsize cities of Andalusia, Enterprise and Dothan. Roby would be absurdly safe here. Safe R

5
VAP: 45 W, 50 B
61.1 Obama, 61.8 Dem

Terri Sewell (D-Birmingham) lives here; majority black. Tuskegee, Troy, Columbus and up into Birmingham. Sewell would probably run in the 7th rather than here, this district would be almost entirely new to her. Safe D, black pickup

6
VAP: 81.4 W, 12.3 B
23.7 Obama, 26.8 Dem

Open. Central Alabama. Safe R, ho hum.

9
VAP: 68.8 W, 22.6 B
46.7 Obama, 58.1 Dem

Open. I'm particularly proud of this district. It takes all of the ancestrally Dem stronghold areas of northern Alabama, such as Huntsville, Decatur and Florence. Obama's performance jumps almost 9 points, and the Dem average is a very safe 58% Mo Brooks is just drawn out of this district, which is good for him, because any half-decent Democrat (who's still a Democrat) would whomp him in a neutral year. Likely D

10
VAP: 83.2 W, 10 B
29.4 Obama, 41.4 Dem

Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) lives here. The rest of what used to be AL-05. Brooks becomes much safer. Safe R

11
VAP: 89.5 W, 6.1 B
22.1 Obama, 35.7 Dem

Bob Aderholt (R-Haleyville) lives here. Half of Aderholt's current AL-04, very rural northwestern AL. Worst district in the state for Obama. This area was represented by Democrats in Congress as late as 1997(!). Safe R now.

12
VAP: 74.1 W, 20.8 B
35 Obama, 39.7 Dem

"Not the Michigan one) Mike Rogers (R-Anniston) lives here. This closely resembles Rogers' current AL-03, including the base of Auburn-Opelika. The best of the Republican districts for Obama, a distinction that doesn't mean a whole lot. Safe R

13
VAP: 86.4 W, 5.1 B, 6.1 Hispanic
23.4 Obama, 35.7 Dem

Open. Northeastern rural. Most Hispanic district in the state. Safe R

Birmingham


7
VAP: 47.3 W, 46.9 B
61.3 Obama, 64.9 Obama

Open; plurality white. Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. The best district in the state for Obama is the one out of the 4 Obama districts with the least blacks, imagine that? As I mentioned way above, Sewell probably runs here instead of the 5th where her home is, she already represents pretty much all of this. Safe D, black hold

8
VAP: 77.9 W, 16.9 B
29.8 Obama, 32.5 Dem

Specer Bachus (R-Vestavia Hills), Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, lives here. Jefferson and St. Clair Counties. Bachus is absurdly safe. Safe R
.
.
.
.
Alabama goes from a 1-6 map to a 5-8 map, including 3 (likely) new black Congressmen. All incumbents return to Congress.

Georgia


Georgia, which gained a district in the 2010 census, gets 27 districts, one more than Double its current 13 and one less than Double its new 14-district map.

The Dem Average is "All 2006-2008 statewide races"

South


1
VAP: 50.4 W, 40.9 B, 6.5 H
51.6 Obama, 53.1 Dem

Tim Scott (R-Ashburn) lives here. Absurd gerrymander to try and pick up every remaining Democrat in the southern part of the state. Already only plurality white by population, this could be considered to be trending our way. A Democrat in the model of Sanford Bishop could do pretty well here, or maybe even Bishop himself: his new home district is too blue for him to be comfortable. Scott, by the way, probably move south to the 2nd or north to the 5th. Lean D with Bishop, Swing if open

2
VAP: 73.3 W, 19.4 B, 5.3 H
30.5 Obama, 37.6 Dem

Open. South central Georgia. Nooot much to say. Austin Scott might run here.Safe R

3
VAP: 72.9 W, 19.3 B, 5.3 H
32.2 Obama, 36.7 Dem

Jack Kingston (R-Savannah) may or may not live in this particular district, but he'd run here no matter what. Half of Savannah and southeast Georgia. Safe R

4
VAP: 42.3 W, 50.5 B
68.5 Obama, 65.2 Dem

John Barrow (D-Savannah) lives here; majority black. The other half of Savannah and up to Augusta. Barrow is unlikely to survive a primary. Safe D, black pickup

5
VAP: 70.9 W, 22 B
31.3 Obama, 36.3 Dem

Open. Rural fajita strip (peach peel?) in central GA. Scott may run here instead of the 1st. Safe R

6
VAP: 71.3 W, 22.2 B
32.7 Obama, 35.7 Dem

Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville) lives here. Starting to move into the Atlanta metro. Uppity Westmoreland will be fine. Safe R

7
VAP: 42.2 W, 51.3 B
61 Obama, 62.2 Dem

Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) lives here; black majority. This district moves north from Bishop's current territory, becoming much bluer. Bishop probably can't survive a primary from a real Democrat, but he may be delusional enough to try. Safe D, black hold no matter what.

8
VAP: 46.4 W, 48.1 B
58.9 Obama, 59.4 Dem

Open. Another peach peel, from Columbus to Macon to Sandersville. African Americans would dominate the primary electorate, making the election of a black Congressman very likely. This will only get bluer with time, blacks are already a majority among total population. Safe D, black opportunity

North


10
VAP: 39 W, 50.5 B, 6.4 H
63.3 Obama, 60.9 Dem

Open; black majority. Atlanta Metro, including parts of Butts, Henry and Clayton Counties, and a small slice of Fulton (Atlanta). 2nd new black majority seat. David Scott, whose home is in the Atlanta-based 9th, could run here instead. Safe D, black pickup/hold

11
VAP: 33.7 W, 52.8 B, 8.3 H
66.7 Obama, 64.8 Dem

Open; black majority. Atlanta metro; Spalding, Fayette and Clayton Counties, plus a small piece of Fulton. 3rd new black majority seat. David Scott could run here. Safe D, black pickup/hold

12
VAP: 44.4 W, 43.9 B, 7.7 H
57.1 Obama, 55.6 Dem

Open; white plurality. Atlanta metro; Fayette, Fulton, Douglas and Cobb Counties. The black and hispanic populations are exploding: total population is 39.9 W, 46.4 B, 9.1 H. Blacks dominate the Democratic primary. Opportunity for a liberal white a la Steve Cohen though. Likely D, black opportunity

13
VAP: 42.4 W, 51.3 B
63.5 Obama, 61.8 Dem

Open; majority black. Atlanta metro; shoving bloodred counties like Jasper, Putnam and Jones in with DeKalb. 4th new black majority seat. Safe D, black pickup

14
VAP: 65.1 W, 27.3 B
38 Obama, 39.6 Dem

Open. Moving southeast a little bit, this district is based in Augusta and its suburbs. Safe R

19
VAP: 79.5 W, 11 B, 5.4 H
28.6 Obama, 32.7 Dem

Open. Atlanta metro and into the exurbs. Paul Broun, who was drawn into the swingy 17th, may run here instead. Safe R

21
VAP: 42.5 W, 50.7 B
64.9 Obama, 62.1 Dem

Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia) lives here. Atlanta metro (DeKalb) and out into the central part of the state. Johnson, who (jokingly or not) thought Guam might Guam might sink if we expanded the military base there, might not survive a primary with the political center of gravity shifting away from DeKalb County. Safe D, black hold

22
VAP: 72.1 W, 19.7 B, 5.6 H
35 Obama, 37.3 Dem

Open. More Atlanta Metro, based in Carrollton. Phil Gringrey (R-Marietta), whose home is in either the 16th or 25th, could run here, this is mostly his territory. Safe R

23
VAP: 86.3 W, 7.4 B
28.7 Obama, 35.8 Dem

Open. Northwest corner of the state. Another option for Gingrey. Safe R

24
VAP: 80.6 W, 12.5 H
24.7 Obama, 29.8 Dem

Open. Northeast corner of the state, based in the Hispanic and fast-growing Gainesville. But still, it will be a long time before it gets competitive. Safe R

26
VAP: 82 W, 11.9 H
26.8 Obama, 32.2 Dem

Tom Graves (R-Ranger) lives here. North Central Georgia, mostly Atlanta Metro. Safe R

27
VAP: 84.1 W, 8.4 H
24.8 Obama, 24.5 Dem

Open. North Atlanta surburbs. Worst district in the state for President Obama. Safe R

Atlanta


9
VAP: 38.2 W, 51.1 B, 5.1 H
79.5 Obama, 77 Dem

John Lewis and David Scott (both D-Atlanta) both live here, in all likelihood; black majority. This is almost entirely located in Atlanta. David Scott's current district doesn't go into the city of Atlanta at all, so he would have no problem running in a district like the 10th or 11th instead. Lewis gets the Atlanta district. Safe D, black hold

15
VAP: 44 W, 38.1 B, 9.3 H
72.3 Obama, 70.1 Dem

Open; plurality white. DaKalb County and part of the city of Atlanta. Most of the white areas in this district are more Republican, so a black win in the Democratic primary is very possible, if not likely. Again, a liberal white like Steve Cohen could win here. Safe D, black opportunity

16
VAP: 34.3 W, 25.4 B, 30.5 H, 7.8 Asian
59.9 Obama, 56.9 Dem

Phil Gringrey might live here, but he runs in either the 22nd, 23rd or 25th; white plurality. A veritable racial clusterfuck that goes from Cobb to Gwinette County, my guess for who would win the Democratic primary might actually be an African American, since most of the Hispanics may not be citizens. Safe D, minority opportunity

17
VAP: 57.2 W, 22.3 B, 11.7 H, 7 A
48.9 Obama, 48.2 Dem

Paul Broun (R-Athens) and Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville) both live here. Athens to Gwinette County. Woodall is a freshman and Broun is a nutcase, so this district could actually be better for Dems if it's not open. But, Broun probably runs in the 19th and Woodall may vacate for the 18th. Another note: John Barrow, who cannot survive his now-majority black 4th, used to live in Athens and could make a go here.
Lean D vs. Broun
Lean D with Barrow
Swing vs. Woodall
Swing if open

18
VAP: 54.8 W, 14.1 B, 12.7 H, 16.8 A
38.6 Obama, 37.8 Dem

Open. Gwinette County. As I mentioned just above, Rob Woodall would run here rather than the much swingier 17th that contains his home. However, this district is a demographic timebomb, so it's only a matter of time before it becomes competitive. But for now, Safe R

20
VAP: 68.9 W, 11.2 B, 8.9 H, 9.1 A
35.6 Obama, 32.3 Dem

Tom Price (R-Roswell) lives here. Northern Fulton and southern Forsyth Counties. Safe R

25
VAP: 74.1 W, 12.5 B, 6.4 H, 5.2 A
33.8 Obama, 33.7 Dem

Phil Gingrey may live here, this district contains a small part of his home of Marietta. I've spent enough time discussing his various options though. Cobb County. Safe R
.
.
.
.
So, the current delegation of Georgia is 5D-8R. In the new map, Republicans created a new Republican seat, and further weakened John Barrow, creating a potential 4D-10R map. This map, however, is 11-14-2, much closer to parity, and reflects the rapidly growing and bluening state. It creates a whopping seven black majority districts, another that is black plurality, and three more that are white plurality, but African Americans have an excellent chance of winning a primary and general election. The two swing districts are opportunities for two incumbent Democratic congressmen, both of whom are not good fits for the districts I've drawn them into.

Tennessee


Tennessee gets 18 districts, exactly double its current 9.

The Dem average is:

  • President, 2004 and 2008
  • Governor 2006
  • Senate, 2006 and 2008
  • House races, 2004, 2006 and 2008

West


1
VAP: 44.7 W, 50.2 B
66.8 Obama, 64.9 Dem

Black majority. Without knowing what precinct, Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) could live in any of the 4 districts shown. But I bet he runs here. Sent out east from Memphis so a second black majority district can be created, it's still the strongest Dem seat in the area. When Cohen retires, it will be an easy black pickup. Safe D

2
VAP: 42.5 W, 50.3 B
63.3 Obama, 57.5 Dem

Open; black majority. Memphis, Germantown and Collierville. There is a much bigger dropoff in Dem performance from Obama to the other races, probably linkable to black turnout. But a black Democrat should have no trouble making it out of the primary and then winning the general election. Safe D, black pickup

3
VAP: 47.7 W, 43.7 B, 5.8 H
56.9 Obama, 55.1 Dem

Open; plurality white. The first (of a couple) gerrymandered districts, the 3rd goes up into Haywood County, which is pretty blue, and picks up as many other blue precincts as possible. Blacks would dominate the Democratic primary, and probably do OK in the general election, being an Obama district. Likely D, black opportunity

4
VAP: 78.8 W, 15.6 B
32.7 Obama, 38.5 Dem

Stephen Fincher (R-Frog Jump) lives here. Memphis exurbs. District is 10 points less blue than Fincher's current one, so he'll be just fine. Safe R

Central


5
VAP: 82.2 W, 11.6 B
43.3 Obama, 51.2 Dem

Open. The Dem average is undoubtedly this favorable towards Dems because of former Rep. John Tanner. However, in a year not named 2010, State Senator Roy Herron, who was our nominee in a district much like this in 2010, could make a go at this district and quite possibly not be killed.
Swing with Herron
Likely R otherwise

6
VAP: 70.4 W, 21.4 B, 5 H
53.1 Obama, 56.7 Dem

Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) may or may not live here, but he'd run here. Parts of Nashville, Clarksville and Dickson. Identical, politically, to his current TN-05, Cooper would rather run here than in the much much bluer 7th.
Safe D with Cooper
Likely D otherwise

7
VAP: 58.3 W, 25.9 B, 10.6 H
64.6 Obama, 64.3 Dem

Open. Nashville. Best district for Obama outside Memphis. A real Democrat could win here and thrive. Safe D

9
VAP: 74.5 W, 19.1 B
45.6 Obama, 53.4 Dem

Scott DesJarlais (R-Jasper) lives here. Chattanooga and other Dem areas in the southern part of the state. A full 13 points better for Obama than DesJarlais' current TN-04, he will probably want to inch Northwest into the 12, which he already represents a decent portion of. Assuming it's open, And say, Chattanooga mayor Ron Littlefield (D) runs, I could go so far as calling this Lean D

10
VAP: 90.5 W
33 Obama, 38.8 Dem

Marsha Blackburn (R) may live here: her home a Brentwood is split between the 10th and 12th. She likely runs here, containing the most of her current territory. Nashville suburbs, etc. Safe R

11
VAP: 90.9 W
31 Obama, 38.8 Dem

Freshman Diane Black's (R) hometown of Gallatin is split between this district and the 8th, but she run here, no question. More Nashville suburbs. Safe R

12
VAP: 82.8 W, 8.4 B
36.1 Obama, 40.5 Dem

Open. More Nashville suburbs, with the Dem city of Murfreesboro cut out. As I mentioned, Scott DesJarlais would much rather run here than the 9th. Safe R

13
VAP: 94.7 W
30.9 Obama, 40.1 Dem

Open. New district in the east-central part of the state, centered in Cumberland and Roane Counties. Safe R

14
VAP: 88.5 W, 5.5 B
27 Obama, 35 Dem

Chuck Fleischmann (R-Ooltewah) lives here. Chattanooga suburbs and other. Cinch for GOP, the worst district in the state for Obama. Safe R

East


8
VAP: 81.1 W, 11.9 B
49.6 Obama, 54.1 Dem

Jimmy Duncan (R-Knoxville) lives here, but he runs in the 15th instead. Obama only lost this absurdly gerrymandered district by less than 1000 votes. This could be easily won by the right Democrat, like Knoxville mayor Madeline Rogero. Lean D

15
VAP: 93.3 W
29.1 Obama, 36.1 Dem

Open. Southeast TN, Maryville and Athens. As I mentioned, Jimmy Duncan runs here instead, he already represents pretty much all of it. Safe R

16
VAP: 92.8 W
31.1 Obama, 38.9 Dem

Open. Part of Knoxville and its suburbs. Brand new district. Safe R

17
VAP: 94 W
29 Obama, 36.6 Dem

Open. Half of the current TN-01, centered in Morristown. Safe R

18
VAP: 94.1 W
29.2 Obama, 35.6 Dem

Phil Roe (R-Johnson City) lives here. This district is dominated by Johnson City. Roe, who used to be mayor of Johnson City, will be just fine for the 10 years he has promised to serve. Safe R
.
.
.
.
A 5-4 delegation that was flipped on its head to 2-7 after 2010, this map creates 8 districts that are winnable for Democrats, including 2 black majority districts (one of which will be won by Steve Cohen), and another black opportunity one. Assuming Herron runs for the 5th and the strongest possible Democrats run in the 8th and 9th, this is a 7-10-1 map.

So, for the three states in this diary, the total is 23-32-3, bringing the House as a whole so far to 257-188-44

As always, any feedback is appreciated.

Originally posted to HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:31 PM PST.

Also republished by Kos Georgia.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:31:16 PM PST

  •  Interesting thought experiment, but an 870 member (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    House of Representatives seems incredibly unwieldy to me.

    "Mistress of the Topaz" is now available in paperback! Link here: http://www.double-dragon-ebooks.com/single.php?ISBN=1-55404-900-8

    by Kimball Cross on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:40:37 PM PST

  •  I hate the idea that Mobile is Safe R (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, HoosierD42, bumiputera

    because it should not be that way. Mobile is a sleeping giant that has a very international community and the only reason it's safely in the hands of the Republicans is because the local democratic base is split between the radical whites and the rest of the black population - the "family" ties around here are republican because, well, "Dahlin, we are Republicans" which is how my aunt put it when I went off on Fox news at a family gathering.

    I'd run against Bonner if I had nothing better to do. I wrote lots of Diaries when Vivian Beckerle ran against him. Unfortunately, she's not running, and to my knowledge no one else is. The state party disbanded the old district and I haven't been to any functions since it was re-formed for the Obama campaign.

    I had to laugh at my 93 year old neighbor when he said the same thing to me a few nights ago. I doubt I'd get his vote though, but it's tempting.

    I'm not a social climber and I could care less about parties (the kind where you stand around and remember people's names) as I'm all too often flirting with the men in the room, so it's not really a good idea, if ya'll are starting to think it...so don't go there.

    I can do everything but earn a living.

    by alabamaliberal on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:42:03 PM PST

  •  BTW I (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, HoosierD42

    took this idea and doubled the Oregon state house to 120 members, drawing a Dem gerrymander that'd make us favored in a supermajority of districts.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:57:06 PM PST

  •  Re: Tennessee (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    I don't think even a Dem trifecta would attempt to split Davidson County that many ways, and might be leery of reducing TN-01 or TN-02 below about 55% black. While this is a good sort of "testing the limits" map (tipped and rec'd btw), I would think that the actual map might be somewhat cleaner than these.

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

    by fearlessfred14 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 04:54:58 PM PST

    •  Haha well naturally. (0+ / 0-)

      I have a bad habit of drawing Dem gerrymanders in red states. But since I started this series that way, it would feel wrong to change course now.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 09:31:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  just saying (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14

        I think this series would have been 1000x more useful if you drew the districts based on who currently controls redistricting.  That way, we would get an idea if doubling the house would benefit dems, reps, or neither.  As it is, all your are proving is that dems would gain a lot more seats if they controlled redistricting in every state.

        •  Maybe I'll redo it that way. (0+ / 0-)

          But it's very hard for me to think like a Republican. And I don't think of that as a negative.

          24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 10:44:16 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  there's no thinking like a republican! (0+ / 0-)

            IT's just coloring in and connecting all the red places instead of all the blue places.  If it helps, swap blue and red on the maps ;).  Maybe I'll give you a hand and throw together a TN one.  My initial thought is that there will be 2 AA districts in Memphis, and the blue parts of Nashville will be jammed into one district.  I'm going to aim for 3D-15R.

            •  My neutral map is 4-13-1 (0+ / 0-)

              and yes, that's about how they would draw the districts, though they might do a 4-14-0 or 3-14-1 map instead of 3-15-0. Note that any Republican district around Nashville should have a considerable Rep average so Jim Cooper can't win it.  Also, if you wish to emulate what Republicans actually did, minimize county splits.

              Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

              by fearlessfred14 on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 12:55:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Two questions. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Would you say that AL-09 is trending away from Democrats, or do the cities make that not the case?

    Also, would Lincoln Davis have a place on your Tenn. map?

    Thanks.

    Farm boy who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.88, -4.26, One in ONE MILLION that recalled Scott Walker!!!!

    by WisJohn on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 06:38:10 PM PST

    •  No. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      At least I don't think so. His home of Pall Mall is drawn into the very red 13th, which is redder than his old district. His district is very carved up, with most of the Dem areas put into the 9th, which he could theoretically run in, but being based in Chattanooga, which he's never represented, would monkey wrench his chances in a primary.

      24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 09:34:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Northern AL trending away from Dems (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      Northern Alabama is trending away from the Democratic party. Keep in mind that Obama got only 10% of the white vote in Alabama in 2008, and most of that was in the city of Tuscaloosa, in the west central part of the state. AL-9 is Blue-turning-Red, AL-10 is Red-turning-Redder.

  •  Just FYI Hoosier (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    I pm'd Dave a while back and he told me it was all 2006 and 2008 statewide and house races for the AL average.

  •  Here ya go (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    TN-01
    Pres: 29-71   Avg: 36-64

    TN-02
    Pres: 29-71   Avg: 37-63

    TN-03
    Pres: 37-63   Avg: 43-57

    TN-04
    Pres: 32-68   Avg: 39-61

    TN-05
    Pres: 31-69   Avg: 39-61

    TN-06
    Pres: 35-65   Avg: 42-58

    TN-07
    Pres: 33-67   Avg: 42-58

    TN-08
    Pres: 33-67   Avg: 41-59

    TN-09
    Pres: 36-64   Avg: 46-54

    TN-10
    Pres: 76-24   Avg: 74-26

    TN-11
    Pres: 42-58   Avg: 47-53

    TN-12
    Pres: 36-64   Avg: 40-60

    TN-13
    Pres: 42-58   Avg: 45-55

    TN-14
    Pres: 38-62   Avg: 47-53

    TN-15
    Pres: 39-61   Avg: 48-52

    TN-16
    Pres: 32-68   Avg: 36-64

    TN-17
    Pres: 67-33   Avg: 61-39

    TN-18
    Pres: 86-14   Avg: 81-19

    TN-17 and TN-18 are AA majority.  TN-10 is the other Dem district.
    Roy Herron may be able to win TN-15, but based on the Pres numbers, this district will be completely red shortly.  Dems may also have outside shots at TN-11 and TN-14.

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