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Romney is in command of the board going into Super Tuesday. It's unlikely that any of the candidates will make a move before then, but once the results are in somebody is likely to fall off the map.

Romney will fight to the bitter end unless something insane happens. One does not simply back out without fighting after leading for so long.

Santorum will need to win two states with Washington, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee being the most likely victories. If he comes out with one (or none) his campaign will be seriously derailed.

Gingrich has to win Georgia and place well in some of the other states to keep his thin chances from breaking.

Paul must put full effort on Virginia to stay in the GOP race (though a run as an independent isn't out of the question).

Who will drop out first after Super Tuesday?

Poll

Who will be the next to leave the GOP race?

2%2 votes
8%6 votes
73%49 votes
14%10 votes

| 67 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think Santorum's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kyril, RamblinDave

    comments about college and JFK hurt him some - even those who don't really care about them specifically might see him as too much of a loose canon, sounds odd I know to say that might mean Newt has a chance for a mini-surge?

  •  I don't think any of them will drop out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kyril, Boise Grad, cazcee

    I think they're all going to the convention unless Romney has enough delegates before it starts.

    Gingrich hates Romney...well he hates everybody. I bet he hates his wife and will find a new one to hate after the election. So Gingrich will stay in. Ron Paul has nothing to lose by quitting. I know, I know. Rand Paul for VP. That's a longshot and Ron Paul is nuts so he'll stay. Santorum will be #2 and will be hoping for a miracle at the convention. (That was a fun sentence to write.)

    It's possible that none of them will actually get the nomination. I was thinking that when McCain realized he was going to lose unless he did something drastic he made the bonehead VP pick. I can see the Republican elite knowing Obama would beat Romney easily and trying some desperate move, i.e. a brokered convention.

  •  Gingrich Will Never Get Out..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kyril, mookins

    His patron, Sheldon Adelson, is blowing millions on him.  Adelson is really for Romney.  Gingrich is there to keep Santorum from overtaking Mitt.

    If Gingrich goes, all his fundies will flow to Santorum & Mitt will lose.  The GOP establishment will not allow that to happen.

    In the meantime, hope Santorum keeps talking about throwing up, not going to college & shoplifting everyone's contraception.    

    •  the thing is, if Santoromentum dies away, and Newt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kyril

      gets the spotlight again, its only going to take him two days to say something insane/idiotic again.  We know this.  Then what happens?  Is it finally Paul's turn?  Or do all the goppers finally take a handful of tums and come home to Mittens?

  •  I must not understand (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kyril

    Washington's make-up if santorum has a chance there

    Cats are better than therapy, and I'm a therapist.

    by Smoh on Tue Feb 28, 2012 at 10:00:50 PM PST

    •  Washington is a blue state (0+ / 0-)

      But its Republicans are VERY conservative, and if anything, the fact that they are now usually outvoted by Seattle has just made them more extreme. Santorum is the perfect candidate for both their meanspirited wingnuttery and their seething resentment of their state's liberal reputation. I could easily see Santorum doing well there, and if he doesn't, then he probably has no more hope of the nomination.

      Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

      by RamblinDave on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:07:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think because its a caucus rather than a primary (0+ / 0-)

      you tend to get more hard core republicans. I don't think Romney has come close to winning a caucus yet

      "I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your fuckin' mouth." --- Bill Hicks

      by voroki on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:07:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  It goes a bit deeper for these also rans. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cazcee

    For instance so long as Sheldon Adelson is writing checks Newt will be in the race.

    Santorum can stay in after Super Tuesday because after that point he doesn't really have to advertise. He can keep running his low budget campaign just as he always has and collect the dived ends in the much less important post Super Tuesday States.

    Ron Paul is the guy who held his own convention in 2008 in protest to the GOP convention. The guy isn't going anywhere because he doesn't seem to live in this political universe.

    But here is the real reasons these guys stay in is Delegates and the favors those delegates will win them.

    The GOP convention is still very much a meeting of the bigwig party bosses of the establishment. Lots of the states are non-binding, everything is designed to be very fluid when the time comes to actually count and cast votes at the convention.

    I believe all of this talk of a brokered convention is most likely foreshadowing something to that effect. Maybe a less formal, back room deal making sort of arrangement but no more democratic. Romney's consistently weak showings have created a situation where delegates are going to have to be bargained for.

    Sheldon Adelson wants influence and Newt is his ticket to winning delegates that can then be traded for favors by a possible Romney Administration.

    Santorum will be positioned fairly well to bargain for a cabinet post, possibly VP. In fact if the GOP is hell bent on reliving the 2004 Democratic Primary Santorum makes a pretty good Rightwing version of Edwards to Mittens Kerry.

    Paul is the wild card though his sons name has been tossed around as a VP possibility and Paul's buddy buddy nature with Romney in recent weeks seems to suggest there is some sort of an alliance there.

    At this stage of the game it's all about getting as much clout as you can before the convention. Romney is going to have to make deals to reach that magic number, and if something unexpected were to happen, causing the party establishment to reject the idea of Mitt as the nominee all of these clowns now have at least some leverage in who does get picked.

    We lose if we choose to forget; the lives of men, and money spent.

    by DeanDemocrat on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 12:22:56 AM PST

  •  Here in East TN (0+ / 0-)

    there are 20 Ron Paul signs for every single not-Ron Paul sign. Early voting has been going on for a while already. If more of the rural, "severely" conservative areas go for Paul, it could be an interesting race. The media seem to think TN is Santorum's to lose.

  •  My money is on Santorum (0+ / 0-)

    Up to today, he had a small but plausible shot at the nomination. I now think Romney has likely put away that threat. (Yes, Santorum might end up with a decent number of delegates from Michigan, but the public perception is that he lost in a state where he looked poised to win. That's going to hurt.) Sooner or later he'll probably see he's not getting anywhere.

    Admittedly, it doesn't look right now like Santorum is going anywhere. But compared to the others? Romney is once again in the driver's seat. He doesn't have the nomination sewn up yet, but it would take a disaster of unprecedented proportions to land him in such bad shape that he didn't have a strong chance at it between now and summer. Gingrich is just too full of himself to quit, and Paul is...well, he's Paul. That leaves Santorum, who just had a very bad night.

    Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

    by RamblinDave on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 03:12:20 AM PST

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