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Leading Off:

ME-Sen, ME-02, ME-01: Hel-lo! After an absolutely frenzied couple of days filled with endless maneuvering and speculation, Dem Rep. Mike Michaud has announced that, in the end, he's decided not to run for Senate. This means two things for sure: (1) Michaud's fellow Rep. Chellie Pingree is now the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic nomination (even though she hasn't formally said she's running yet), though ex-Gov. John Baldacci seems quite interested as well; (2) all those hopefuls who started gathering signatures for a run in Michaud's 2nd Congressional District are now out-of-luck, especially former SoS Matt Dunlap, who previously was running for Senate.

The one open question is whether state Senate President Kevin Raye, a Republican who had been looking at the Senate contest, will opt for that race, or whether he'll stick with his plans to challenge Michaud for the House seat. In other words, will Raye become Pingree's problem, or will he remain Michaud's? I'm sure we'll find out soon.

As for the GOP side of the Senate field, things have been slower to develop. In fact, not a single candidate had, as of Thursday, taken out papers from the Secretary of State's office to begin signature gathering. (One GOP strategist tried to explain away , saying: "Republicans are more thoughtful in our policies and our politics." That made me LOL.) Roll Call's Abby Livingston, though, has what's probably the most up-to-date list of legitimate contenders who are weighing the race. One of them, incidentally, is state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin... but does he really want to run with headlines like this? The lede kind of says it all:

The Maine House of Representatives unanimously passed an order Thursday requesting the state’s highest court to issue an opinion on whether Treasurer Bruce Poliquin has violated the state constitution by engaging in commerce while in office.
Livingston's story also brings us up to speed on the status of Eliot Cutler, the independent who nearly won 2010's gubernatorial race, and whose presence in the Senate race could scramble the calculus. (All we had to go on previously was a year-old report that he wasn't interested in running in a hypothetical Senate race against Olympia Snowe.) A former Cutler aide says his old boss is "considering" but remains "undecided," though he adds that Cutler probably wouldn't run if ex-Gov. Angus King does. King is the state's other prominent indie, who said went on record to say that he's "actively considering."

Finally, as for ME-01 (which looks likely to be vacated by Chellie Pingree), the Portland Press-Herald has what they say is a complete list of all candidates who have taken out papers so far. (David Nir & David Jarman)

Senate:

MA-Sen: It's just what the doctor ordered for Scott Brown, if the surgeon was Dr. Nick and the operating theater filled with the kind of people who think stuffing magnets in their socks will cure whatever ails them. After several months of watching his Democratic opponent, consumer advocate and law professor Elizabeth Warren, soar in the polls, Brown finally got a respite a couple of weeks ago in the form of a new survey from Suffolk University, showing him up 49-40. It smelled very outlierish to everyone, though, even Republicans, so it didn't do much to stem the growing narrative of Brown in trouble.

Now two more polls have surfaced which also have Brown in the lead... but again, each of them has definite problems. One, which has Brown ahead 49-44, is from Rasmussen Reports, a pollster whose reputation has been so thoroughly chewed over and spat out that I don't think I need to spend any more time vivisecting them here. The other is a private poll from Republican pollster Opinion Dynamics, which used to conducting polling for Fox News. This survey was taken for Mass Insight, a self-described "market-driven solutions" think tank, and it has Brown on top 52-43. Aside from the poll's questionable provenance, it was also in the field a full month ago but has only "leaked" out now. It's also unclear what kind of poll this horserace question was part of—for instance, it may have been a throw-in on a larger poll of non-political topics.

You may be tempted to call this special pleading, an attempt to wave away three bad polls in a row for Elizabeth Warren. If you know me, you know that's not my style, but if you're nevertheless inclined to think along those lines, just ask yourself if you truly believe Scott Brown has something like a nine-point lead in this race. I think that's a hard conclusion to come to, even in the face of "evidence" such as this. But I'm going to suggest we all wait until another pollster, one whose credibility is above reproach, comes back with fresh numbers. If they look like these, then I'll gladly eat crow and do a re-think. But my instincts are telling me it's likely they won't.

MO-Sen: Mediocre fundraising by the two non-self-funding Republican candidates in the Missouri Senate race may have something to do with insiders standing back and asking "is that all there is?" But one key in-state Republican player has finally gotten off the fence, and thrown his support behind ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman: state house speaker Steve Tilley. (Dave Catanese says that Tilley is, after Roy Blunt, the state's best Republican fundraiser, so this may help Steelman—who raised all of $83K in Q4, bad even for a House race—show some signs of financial life.) (David Jarman)

MN-Sen: Minnesota Republicans have landed a new candidate in the race to unseat the extremely popular Amy Klobuchar: Army National Guard Capt. Pete Hegseth, whom The Hill's Cameron Joseph describes as an "upgrade" over the current field. Now, given the state of that field, that really isn't saying much, but Joseph points out that Hegseth "has a national fundraising network from his time running Vets for Freedom, a hawkish foreign policy advocacy group." Still, I can't see Hegseth attracting the support he'd need from the NRSC in order to unseat Klobuchar; national Republicans simply have too many higher priorities.

NJ-Sen: I'm really not sure what's up with the sudden deluge of polls we're seeing in the New Jersey Senate race, though I've gotta guess it's just happenstance. But regardless, SurveyUSA is now out with the third survey in a week of this rather sleepy race, following on the heels of Rutgers-Eagleton and Quinnipiac. Though the margins have all differed from poll to poll, SUSA also shows Dem Sen. Bob Menendez with a sizable lead over state Sen. Joe Kyrillos, 46-31. They also find him beating former Highlands mayor Anna Little 38-49, though Little's status in the race still seems ambiguous. She's had an "Anna Little for Senate" website up for a while now, but recent news reports say she's still in the "considering" phase.

Gubernatorial:

NJ-Gov, NJ-Sen: It's starting look like Newark mayor Cory Booker, who has had the "up-and-comer" label affixed to him practically since birth, might have nowhere left for his star to actually rise. Dem Sen. Frank Lautenberg, despite his 88 years of age, sounds like he'll run for yet another term in 2014, and Booker doesn't seem interested in a primary challenge. Booker also doesn't appear to be eager to run next year against Republican Gov. Chris Christie, whom he's long been allied with. So what's left? Well, it may be a third term as mayor, when he's next up in two more years.

UT-Gov, UT-Sen: This might have some indication of how the relative positions of strength of Gov. Gary Herbert and Sen. Orrin Hatch have changed over the cycle. At the outset, Hatch was considered very vulnerable to a primary challenge, while Herbert was kind of an afterthought... but at this point, Hatch seems to have weathered the worst of the storm (having dodged a Jason Chaffetz challenge) while Herbert's woes have grown. And now, Hatch apparently feels he has enough political capital to extend an endorsement to Herbert... but Herbert hasn't responded in kind, declining to endorse Hatch. (David Jarman)

House:

AR-01: Prosecutor Scott Ellington entered the Democratic field in the 1st Congressional District at the filing deadline, joining state Rep. Clark Hall and Arkansas State econ prof. Gary Latanich for the right to take on freshman GOPer Rick Crawford. Ellington achieved some notability over the last couple of years because he was responsible for the unusual plea deal which set the West Memphis Three free. (If you're unfamiliar with this complex and long-running case, you'll want to check out Wikipedia's entry.)

AR-02: Well, with Thursday's filing deadline now passed, it seems Democrats won't get their man in AR-02. Former state Rep. Jay Martin, who had looked like a likely candidate, says he won't challenge freshman GOPer Tim Griffin, and state party chair Will Bond won't run either. (I'm guessing ex-LG Bill Halter also won't make a last-second bid.) Instead, kind-of-awesomely-named former state Rep. Herb Rule will run... and in this case, let me emphasize "former." Rule, an attorney with the Rose Law Firm (where Hillary Clinton once worked), last served in the legislature in 1970.

FL-13: A second Democrat is entering the race to take on longtime (long, long, longtime) GOP Rep. Bill Young: Former Pinellas School Board member Nina Hayden says she'll run, joining attorney and former congressional aide Jessica Ehrlich.

IA-03: Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell, who faces a redistricting-created member-on-member battle against Tom Latham, has been Crossroads' favorite punching bag so far, and they're back with another hit. The cheaply-animated, Obamacare-centered ad—$77K worth of time in both the Des Moines and Omaha markets—is their third one of the cycle (bringing the Rove-linked super PAC's spending so far here to $373K). (David Jarman)

IL-10: Though pre-primary FEC reports aren't due in Illinois for another week, the books have already closed on the most recent fundraising period, which ran from Jan. 1 through Feb. 29. Democrat Ilya Sheyman is therefore touting his haul, which he says was over $200K, making this his best fundraising report so far, despite the shortened timeframe.

MI-03: We mentioned former state Rep. Steve Pestka's possible challenge to GOP freshman Justin Amash just a day earlier; now, unknown Democrats (the DCCC, perhaps?) have leaked a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll conducted a couple of weeks ago to Dave Catanese to try to tempt Pestka into the race. The initial ballot has Amash up 50-39, but of course subsequent informed tests are more positive for Pestka.

NC-06: It's very much a longshot, but we've got an actual former legislator running here now: Democrat Tony Foriest, who served two terms in the state Senate before losing in 2010, is running in the 6th Congressional District, a seat currently held by GOP Rep. Howard Coble. But Coble, as we've noted, is vulnerable to a primary challenge, so this race could wind up being more interesting than meets the eye.

Speaking of Coble's primary, one non-Some Dude candidate seems to have screwed up his efforts to get on the ballot. Forsyth County Republican Party chair Nathan Tabor showed up just moments too late to submit his paperwork by Wednesday's noon deadline. (Tabor says he'll appeal.) Still, Coble may yet get saved by the clown car effect, since there are two seemingly plausible guys in the race against him even without Tabor: former radio announcer Bill Flynn and Guilford County Commissioner Billy Yow.

OH-09: So Bob Dole, Tom Hanks, and John Dingell walk into a bar together and say... "I'm supporting Marcy Kaptur over Dennis Kucinich?!?" Not a very funny punch line, I suppose, but there's some logic behind their joint endorsement: the three of them worked together with Kaptur on the creation of the World War II monument on the Capitol Mall. Dole and Hanks don't seem to have put any money behind the backing, but Dingell is Kaptur's neighbor (across the Ohio/Michigan state line) and could probably lend some field staff for GOTV. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

North Carolina: The Tarheel State's candidate filing deadline was on Wednesday, and you can find a complete list of filings at the link.

Texas: With maps in the Lone Star State seemingly settled (I guess the plaintiffs are figuring an appeal to the SCOTUS would be pointless?), the candidate filing period will reopen on Friday and continue through March 9. The primary will now be held on May 29 and any runoffs on July 31.

Redistricting Roundup:

NY Redistricting: For some reason, the court's docket sheet isn't listing all the maps that were submitted on Wednesday, but you can find additional maps in this directory, including those from the Assembly and Senate.

TX Redistricting: In case you missed it, David Jarman put together a comprehensive analysis of the new Texas interim congressional map, focusing on the districts which were changed the most (or which look like they might some day become promising for Democrats). The bottom line, though, as we've been saying, is that this map is pretty terrible for Team Blue: It yields a net of two Dem seats and 2 GOP seats, but it also weakens another seat that should lean Dem, and ultimately gives minorities—who are responsible for the bulk of Texas's population growth—no more seats than they had before. How this is acceptable, I cannot understand. In any event, in addition to our run-down, you'll also find our patented population redistribution chart at the link.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Q Ohio primary poll: Santorum by 4 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 05:03:43 AM PST

  •  bipartisanship at work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, savvyspy

    http://www.startribune.com/...
    Not every political fight breaks down along partisan lines. But if this gets through, it would be a huge boon to governor Dayton, setting him up nicely for 2014;s election (when the stadium would be doing it's grand opening)

  •  Thank you Rep Michaud! (22+ / 0-)

    I'm very happy to see him stick with re-election to ME-02.  He's not the best fit statewide but a good Congressman for the 2nd district.  An ugly primary between Pingree and Michaud would have done nobody any good.

  •  BiPM rumors have backed off one potential rival (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dvalkure, itskevin, sfbob

    -- it is only a matter of time until they all follow suit.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 05:09:02 AM PST

  •  Chellie Pingree is about 99.9% certain to run (18+ / 0-)
    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Maine 1st District Congresswoman Chellie Pingree talked like a candidate for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, two days after Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, stunned the state and nation by saying she will not seek re-election.

    Although she left Washington for Maine on Thursday to talk with her family about a possible run, Pingree said "very likely, we'll do it."
    ...
    It's "an incredible opportunity, especially since this seat could determine the balance of power" in the Senate, she said.
    ..

    "This took the Republicans off guard," she said. "It's about time we had a Democrat in the Senate."

    The last Senate Democrat from Maine was former Senate President George Mitchell.

    Pingree said what Mainers really care about is how hard their elected representatives will work for them.

    "If you work hard and you do your homework, you can succeed in Maine," she said.

    http://www.seacoastonline.com/...

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 05:21:10 AM PST

  •  Eliz Warren may be in some trouble (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, walja, sacman701, Woody, fsbohnet

    I've heard 5 complaints in the last 10 days about her campaign.   The main complaint is that her campaign doesn't return emails and calls from people offering to volunteer.  Some people have contacted her office to volunteer multiple times and received no response.   The other, perhaps more disturbing complaint, is that she rarely has conversations.  

    She's very good at a speech and then making the rounds shaking everyone's hand, but people are beginning to note that she's not having conversations with regular old people.  

    It's early on, but she needs to become a better candidate and fast.  I'm beginning to believe the polls, and that's alarming - I assumed she was a shoe in.  It's time for people to pull their heads out of the sand and call her office to express concern.  Her campaign most likely needs some major retooling.

    Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I've seen her do the  speech/handshaking thing 3 times now.  Joe Kennedy was at one of the events and was standing around talking to people.

    •  How low (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, sacman701

      Honestly, how low is the floor in a state as blue as Massachusetts for a serious Democratic candidate?  I can picture scenarios in which she loses to Brown, but I also think she's a better candidate than Coakley, so it wouldn't take anything to turn her candidacy around.  

      I think that given that it's MA we have a lot more time and a lot more wiggle room than we would in other places.  That's not an excuse to be complacent, but this one looks infinitely winnable, to me, all the way up until October.

      •  Brown is well liked - that's the huge problem... (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xsonogall, tietack, Ellid, Woody, Taget, fsbohnet

        And Massachusetts doesn't seem to elect many women to high office roles.  Pres Obama wins by 15, Brown needs to outperform the top of his ticket by 8 to win.  

        Brown is framing himself as an independent Republican - and that can and will win in Massachusetts, even if it is a complete crock.  

        I, too, am feeling much less confident about this seat and I believe the polling.  However Brown up 5 is stand alone polling it seems.  In a Presidential year, getting out a huge Democratic vote I hope enough folks won't vote Pres Obama, their Dem House Rep and then still choose Brown over Warren.  

      •  so turn it around (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ellid, Woody, JBraden

        I've heard the identical message from another person just this morning.  She's very vibrant and engaging, so when she speaks to a group, you get the sense she's speaking to you. But that's different from sitting in a diner, going to a VFW hall, and really listening - and that what Brown is good at.  Warren spends too much time singing to the choir.

        We can't let this seat go, and we can't wait until October - that's exactly what we did with the Coakley campaign.  Suddenly in the last two weeks, the polls tanked, they sounded the alarms, and everyone began jumping through hoops, but it was too late.  Complacency?  Been there, done that, don't want to do it again.

         Yes, Mass. is very blue, but we have a dismal record for electing women to higher office.  As I said, I thought this was a shoe-in, but we're going to have to work really hard for this seat.

      •  Massachusetts is not nearly as blue as you think (5+ / 0-)

        The central part of the state is very conservative, ditto south of Boston.  Warren is NOT popular there, especially with the married professional types (and yes, I am including the women).

        Other problems:

        - The whole "she is a carpetbagger from Oklahoma" meme is starting to get some traction.  It's stupid since she's lived in Massachusetts for 20 years, but people are believing it anyway.

        - The campaign has been slow to respond to e-mails, was slow to put up positions on its web site, and has been generally slow and unresponsive.  That needs to change quickly, especially given the above.

        - Warren is seen by a lot of people as being exclusively associated with Boston and Cambridge.  This may not sound like much, but believe me, there are a LOT of people who are sick unto death of Boston dominating the rest of the state.  Warren's Harvard connection isn't a problem, but the perception that she doesn't know much about the rest of the state most definitely is.

        I want her to win this election.  I have never liked Brown, and this nonsense with the Blunt Amendment sealed it.  But seriously?  Warren's campaign is not impressing me so far.

    •  She's not having conversations? (9+ / 0-)

      I've heard the exact opposite. That she loves talking to voters.

    •  I think everyone needs to relax (5+ / 0-)

      The shine is off Scott Brown now.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:28:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  On the contrary... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ellid, James Allen, Woody, sfbob, jofr

        ...shouldn't MA Dems not be relaxing at all? They need to fight hard to get this seat back. Brown is a formidable opponent; I wouldn't dismiss those polls completely... If it's true that Warren's campaign is slacking, I'm finding that a bit of a concern.

        "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

        by xsonogall on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:41:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think by "everyone" (6+ / 0-)

          andgarden means "everyone here."

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:42:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think you misunderstand what I mean (9+ / 0-)

          by "relax." People shouldn't stop working. But they also shouldn't use a couple of bad polls as an excuse to jump to conclusions about the state of Warren's campaign.

          You know what I think the most likely explanation is? Perceptions of an improving economy are rehabilitating Brown. So what's good for Obama may also be good for him. I'm just hoping the basic political realities of Massachusetts swallow him in the end. Warren is well positioned to take advantage of them.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:44:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gotcha (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody, jofr

            True about the economy. Still, I'm also unnerved when I talk to some of my relatives and friends (all Dems) up there and they think Brown is okay...

            so there needs to be some real hammering on Brown using that Blunt amendment... Right? Unless I'm the country is so far gone now that this won't even affect him negatively at all...

            As far as jumping to conclusions about the campaign; I'm a bit of a worrier myself, and I think I'm not going to be over that whole Coakley debacle for a while.

            "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

            by xsonogall on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:56:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right on (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Woody, jofr

              Scott Brown has really tried to build up his credit as some post-partisan figure, and Elizabeth Warren is a bit of an unconventional candidate. As blue as Mass. is, Warren needs to be right on the ball, all the time to rally as many Dems and independents as possible, and increase turnout in groups such as students.

              Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

              by fearlessfred14 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:22:19 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  And it takes time to "change the narrative" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody, jofr

        Brown starts out as a well funded incumbent, and I'll bet $10k that many MA voters haven't connected Warren's campaign as challenging Brown. That may be hard for most of us junkies to swallow, but even the most astute voters don't always have all the facts at hand properly assessed. I have missed essentially meaningless school board elections (because only incumbents were on the ballot) because there was no "buzz", no activity by the groups I rely upon to be a sort of alarm clock.

        The thing to watch in polling from here on out is do female voters who have supported Brown start having second thoughts as the his votes for "Religious Freedom" start piling up. Also if there appears to be a steady "Obama-Brown" preference in polling - voters who will re-elect POTUS and re-elect Brown. Again, difficult for us junkies to fathom, but there have been ticket splitters like this in every election I've ever participated in. If that margin is 5% or less, not really a big deal. If it is greater than 5% and stays that way for months to come, it becomes a big deal.

        When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

        by Egalitare on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:47:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ironically (0+ / 0-)

        what is hurting Warren right now IMO is the improving economy.  Her message is most relevant when the economy was not doing so well.  

    •  One thing I have to point out (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, Odysseus, jofr

      I was predicting exactly this back in September when Warren announced: that Brown was not a pushover, that Warren's campaign and website were not responsive, and that she was not nearly as well known (or as well liked) outside of Boston as people here think.  I got creamed for pointing this out, and it wasn't until I actually met Warren herself (courtesy of a local Democratic committeewoman I met through a friend who worked for John Kerry in 2004 - Warren's actual campaign staff had nothing to do with it) that I changed my mind about her as a candidate.  

      If we truly want Warren to win, the complacence needs to end NOW.  And the first place it needs to end is Warren's own staff, which has been less than impressive (or clued-in to the realities of politics in Massachusetts) from the get-go.  I think those polls are much closer to reality than anyone here would like.

      •  Find some way to change this for the better (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, rdw72777, Setsuna Mudo, askew

        I hate it when people point out things like this and do nothing.  Don't be one of them.

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:38:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thank you for once again shooting the messenger (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          I already tried that six months ago.  I was either told to shut up and donate money even though I had none to give, or recruited as a volunteer even though I have no time.

          It's not the candidate, it's the campaign that's booting this one.  And frankly?  I'm an office manager, not a political operative.  If Warren's campaign staff can't figure this out for themselves, they sure as hell aren't going to listen to me.

          •  Considering your tone (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits

            I'd imagine if I were on her staff I wouldn't listen to you.  For someone who isn't a political operative and hasn't the time nor ability to contribute time or money to a campaign, you certainly want a lot of control over how it's run.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:15:19 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  We are all political operatives . . . (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, sapelcovits

            . . . if we follow politics as closely as all of us here do. Seriously, if you've ever done anything remotely political at all, tell them that when you call, and ask to speak to the strategy department. Make yourself sound like a "somebody"-- because, ideally, we are all "somebodies" in a democracy, damnit-- and they'll put you through. Sometimes it takes the insights of those of us who are not professional political operatives to see things clearly. The campaign needs to hear us, and fast.

            617-286-6715. Get on it, folks, and spread the word!!!

            28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

            by The Caped Composer on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:21:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Like I said, been there, done that (0+ / 0-)

              Too disheartened by the response I get here to try again.

            •  If you ask to speak to the strategy dept. (0+ / 0-)

              You'll get transfered to the intern who has the strongest ability to keep a straight face.

              Political field staff talk to people literally every day who act like "somebodies" on the phone and who maybe even are somebodies within their realm, like say a county party. You have to tune that out just to stay sane.

          •  I most certainly am not shooting the messenger. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, Odysseus

            I just want to make sure that none of the mistakes made remain around for much longer.

            Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

            by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:55:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Her campaign is not listening. (0+ / 0-)

          She doesn't have the best team in place.  Plain and simple.  One more bad poll, and I expect to see some changes, but they're surely not listening to us.  I've called people, friends have called with the same message - she needs to make some changes.

          People are getting frustrated.  We need this seat.

    •  Can you find a way (0+ / 0-)

      to get in contact with the campaign manager or someone high up in the chain to tell them what they need to change.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:37:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I called their strategy department yesterday . . . (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo, Odysseus

        . . . and urged them to get an ad up on the air with members of the Kennedy family excoriating Brown for daring to wrap himself in their mantle, and solidly endorsing Warren. The guy I talked to gave a boilerplate answer about how it's a long campaign, there's a lot of time left, blah blah blah. Well, maybe they can be that lackadaisical if one person calls in. But what about if a bunch of people call in? Might that wake them up? The contact number is 617-286-6715. Ask to talk to someone in the strategy department (it might be good to mention some credential about yourself in order to get through-- e.g. if you've ever worked for a campaign, had a blog, etc). Our worries are legitimate; however, they amount to naught but wasted energy unless we take action! Call, call, call!!!!!

        28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

        by The Caped Composer on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:51:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just called (0+ / 0-)

          I had a 10 minute conversation with a young man who listened well.  He wanted to know more about my perceptions, didn't go into denial mode, wanted to know more.  

          I suggest more people call.  I think it's making a difference.  he seemed to get that one more bad poll was going to make matters worse.  I hope PPP does a poll of this race.  They could use some good news.  

  •  AFSCME (6+ / 0-)

    so my stepmom will manage the campaign of Danny Donohue of New York, President of the Civil Service Employees Association, to become the next leader of AFSCME nationally.  He'll be challenging Lee Saunders, who he narrowly lost election to Secretary Treasurer recently.  Saunders is the hand-picked successor of Jerry McEntee, who's been the head of AFSCME for over 30 years.

    My father used to have a good relationship with McEntee.  He was encouraged by McEntee in his first run for the Int'l Vice Presidency for the NW.  McEntee held up Council 75, which is Oregon's AFSCME Council, as an example to other councils because of their effective political and organizing efforts.

    Then McEntee decided to push through an endorsement for Hillary Clinton in 2008.  My father and leaders from Illinois and elsewhere balked at this, and tried to prevent an endorsement.  In fact, Hillary had no better labor record than Barack.  McEntee had a good relationship with the Clintons, though, since AFSCME had been the first union to endorse Bill and he'd been given a lot of access.  The final straw came when Council 75 voted 60-4 to reject the Int'l endorsement of Hillary and instead back Barack Obama.  In 2009 when I won an internship at the DC headquarters, I was told I shouldn't tell McEntee who my father was, or go up to the floor where his office was.

    So when one of my father's mentors, Bill Lucy, decided to retire as Secretary Treasurer, the "reformers",  or "dissidents" as my father calls them, decided to challenge Saunders, who McEntee was trying to get on a fast-track for replacing him when he eventually retired.  They witnessed abuses of powers at the convention where the vote was held, from actual vote fraud, to using international staff as Saunders campaign workers.  Still, they came within 3,000 votes of winning, quite an accomplishment given AFSCME's size (all members of the union are represented in the vote count, though their votes are cast by delegates).

    This year they hope to do better, and win.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 05:37:32 AM PST

  •  PPP needs to poll the ma senate race (10+ / 0-)

    I figure if Rasmussen has Brown with a 5 point lead its probably closer to dead even.  Ma will vote for Obama by 20 points, I find it hard to believe that that many people will split their ballots.
    Then again the outside groups are determined to keep her out of the senate at any cost.

    •  For WI-Sen, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo, askew

      the margin between Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson is 15 points worse (for Dems) in Raz than it is in PPP. So that old adage about adding a few points to the Democrat's standing in Raz results might be understating it.

      •  WI (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, jncca

        I think Ras just got a fluke sample in WI. Most of their polls in other states have been in line with other pollsters once you make the usual Ras adjustment (+2 to the Dem, -2 from the Reep). I'm reading their MA poll as Brown +1, not Warren +8 or so.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:16:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I agree. A PPP poll ASAP. (3+ / 0-)
    •  I also would like to see PPP poll MA Senate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, JBraden

      Rasmussen has their problems, but a 5 point margin is more reasonable than the high single digit leads those two other pollsters have been showing. I suspect that the race is once again a dead heat and the small advantage Warren has had has dissipated. Nonetheless unless Obama is losing MA by less than 15% I think it will Warren will make it over the finish line because it is a Presidential year and much more Democrats (and heavily Democratic leaning independents) will be voting this year than in a mid-term election. Now if Obama only wins MA by about 12 points or so then I can foresee Brown getting a narrow lead, but even if she is struggling a bit, if Obama matches his 2008 performance in MA (about 20 points) then Warren will probably win at least barely on his coattails. I can't see MA independents voting for Obama against Romney but then switching to Brown in great numbers.

      Now if there was no Presidential race then Brown would be in much greater shape as he seems to be aiming to become the new Olympia Snowe in his advertising and demeanor.

      •  I'd say the Ras numbers (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo

        are more or less what the Republican internal numbers are showing (the ones David Catanese spoke of as showing a tossup).

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:39:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's probably a good guess (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, KingofSpades

          By the way, even by Ras' own terms they have a 4.5% margin of error, so a 5-point lead doesn't mean as much as, say, with a larger sample.  That Ras always tries to screen for likely voters even so far out further skews their sample.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:59:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know Warren ever had a "small lead" (4+ / 0-)

        Dave Catanese reported recently that both sides' polling has this as a margin-of-error race.  In other words, pure tossup.

        The public polls are misleading because they have been few, they have been spread out over a long time, and voters aren't really tuned in.  So the most we can make of them is that Warren is the real deal, that she closed the gap to make it a tossup, but beyond that any details about a 3-point lead for her or a 5-point lead for Brown cannot be taken seriously.  Only much closer to the election can relatively small polling margins really be taken seriously.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:58:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  If his seat were up in '14 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        he'd be a near-lock ... but he has to run in a presidential year. I can't see him escaping the national party albatross, though Warren has to concentrate beyond 128.

  •  Republican polling is designed to (0+ / 0-)

    "prepared the ground" to receive the seed of voter manipulation.  It is not designed to elicit the electorate's interest in issues.  Traditional politics is top-down, even as Republican grass roots are inserted as plugs.

    People to Wall Street: "LET OUR MONEY GO"

    by hannah on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 05:42:42 AM PST

  •  February Jobs Numbers? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Aren't they supposed to be out today?

  •  2014 Michaud for Gov or Senate? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, tietack

    Michaud goes for Senate, Cutler gets the Dem nod for Governor.  Both would win easily.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:11:01 AM PST

  •  NJ-05 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, Setsuna Mudo

    Passaic Co. Freeholder Terry Duffy (D) says he will drop out of the race if Jim McQueeny jumps in and gets the Bergen County Democratic Committee endorsement.

    And with lines like this, maybe it's clear Duffy isn't our man anyway:

    "I'm working my way out of it," Duffy said of his campaign on Thursday, adding, "I'm not out of the race, but I'm not as energetic as I was."
    FWIW, McQueeny still has a week to decide - let's see if he can stick to the timeline he set for himself, unlike Ron Rice.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:14:46 AM PST

  •  Ras OH primay poll: Santorum by 2 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Setsuna Mudo

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:17:06 AM PST

    •  Interesting... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      I was thinking it would have tilted to Romney by now, especially since Rove was making noises that Santorum would be finished if he didn't win Ohio. (Knowing Rove's game, I assume that means he's seen polling that suggests Rick is sagging there.)

      But now we have two recent polls showing Santorum in a decent position, albeit slightly weakened. Romney's outspending him fiercely in the state (6:1 was the last I saw), so Santorum may need to plow more cash into the state to have any chance of holding on to his lead.

      •  Agree with Rove on this one (0+ / 0-)

        If Santorum doesn't win Ohio, he'll still go on for a while and win some states, but he'll be dead man walking in terms of getting the nomination.

        The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

        by Paleo on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:32:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sure, (0+ / 0-)

          but my point here was that Rove wouldn't have said that if he didn't think Santorum was going to lose the state. Which suggests to me that he's seen polling showing Santorum weakness.

          But perhaps Santorum is hanging on a little more tenaciously than Rove expected? Maybe Romney really stepped in it with that pitifully handled Blunt amendment question? (This would have gotten more coverage in Ohio than elsewhere, as it was originally carried on an OH station.)

      •  No surprise, Michigan was just 3 days ago (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

        Movement takes time, and it's been just 3 days.  Probably all the movement happened just since Michigan, or maybe slightly before if the ads were flying in Ohio with enough volume.

        I do expect Romney to pull it out, but with only 4 days left, Santorum still clinging to a narrow lead means he's got a real shot and the state is a tossup.

        What we need to really derail Romney enough to string this thing out with real doubt is for Mitt to lose somewhere where he goes to the mat.  So far, he's won everytime he decides to put all his chips on a state.  This time, he's putting them all on Ohio, as is Santorum.  The other states certainly matter, but Ohio is where they've agreed to have their after-school fight.  So if Mitt loses, that really does liven up Rick and make it more of a dogfight.  I think Mitt wins eventually anyway because only he has a real campaign, but he won't come close to 1144 delegates for many months, and he won't be "inevitable."

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:06:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Iwas surprised at the ohio Polling (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Pre-michigan.  It showed Santoum under 40%, which worried me that it was inaccurate.  then Romney came back and won Michigan so I thought it might have been accurate all along.

          Rick is in some serious trouble in OH I think.  A tie or slight win doesn't help him much.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:17:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Whether he's in "trouble" depends on... (0+ / 0-)

            ...what one's expectations are for him.

            I think he never had, or has, a real chance at the nomination.  He doesn't have a real campaign, and that's disqualifying as a practical matter because it means he's not going to win enough states or delegates, period.  So whether he wins this or that state really isn't about his chances of becoming the nominee, it's about his chances of extending public doubt about Mitt.  That's what I'm really rooting for, that Santorum wins Ohio and a few others on Tuesday just to keep the perception alive that Mitt is in real trouble.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:06:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Don't forget Santorum's Ohio handicap (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              He's not on the ballot in districts 6,9 and 13. Those delegates are going to go to Romney unless Paul or Huntsman (still on the ballot) gets an unexpectedly large share of the vote.

              Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

              by anastasia p on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:50:06 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Some of the other moves (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          happened almost instantaneously. Remember the Newt surge in Florida after South Carolina? He was up big just 2-3 days later (PPP and Raz, I believe), and then the bottom dropped out for him all at once.

          No one gets that worked up about Mitt (either way, really), so I doubt we'll see movement that extreme. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if there's maybe one more round of "OMG Romney's in trouble" before the GOP base is finally schooled into submission.

    •  Santorm NEEDS to win Ohio! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, Setsuna Mudo

      He should camp out there the next four days.  Ohio will be the focus of Super Tuesday and serve as the bellwether.  

      •  Ohio isn't a bellweather of much (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drhoosierdem, Setsuna Mudo

        Especially going forward.  It's not at all similar to CA/NY/TX, which are the biggest states left.  PA shouldn't really reflect PA since PA should be home-state for Santorum.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:43:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ohio (5+ / 0-)

          is essentially Santorum's backyard. I think it's reasonable to expect that he should perform better than in a "neutral" state.

          •  What is a neutral state (0+ / 0-)

            Only part of Ohio is his backyard per se, if you mean NE Ohio.  I don't think he'll do better than Michigan %-wise though he might still eke out a win.

            A win with less than 40% though just won't help him much.  He'll be behind by possible 150-200 delegates Next Wednesday if he only wins Ohio with 38% of the vote.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:05:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  NE ohio is most likely to go for Romney (0+ / 0-)

              The Republicans there are going to be business types. The crackpot values voters are likely to be south of here.

              Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

              by anastasia p on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:52:02 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Romney will dow well int he East/East Central (0+ / 0-)

                Simply because Santorum doesn't have delegate slates in OH-6 and OH-13.  I don't know if people can still vote for him anyways (I don't think so), but Romney already starts off with some built in wins.  

                I'd think only OH13/14 geographically are the only others to border PA, so I don't see a built-in advantage for Santorum in the state even if he did have a full delegate slate.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:59:52 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  His idiot bus tour (0+ / 0-)

        came to Cleveland and went to the heart of the black east side of Cleveland. Probably not an Republican primary voter for five square miles. Dumb ass Santorum campaign.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

        by anastasia p on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:51:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Maine Senate & CD-2 (15+ / 0-)

    Raye (R) announces that he is going to stay in the race for CD-2 against Michaud and will not be a candidate for Senate.

    http://bangordailynews.com/...

    Democrats have two candidates for Senate (Pingree (CD-1) and Baldacci (former Governor and CD-2) who have near 100% voter recognition.  Republicans do not have any candidate with statewide name recognition.

    •  Good. (5+ / 0-)

      With Michaud in, ME-02 is Likely D, especially with an Augusta politician.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 06:59:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I mean, an Augusta politician as an opponent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        Benjamin Disraeli said that it's somewhat toxic being an August politician running for another office upstate.

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:45:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It all comes down to King (9+ / 0-)

      If he doesn't run for senate (I don't think Cutler will), the seat should go D.

      Raye not running for senate would seem to me to be a tipoff that King won't run.  The only way I see the Republicans winning the seat is if a Dem and an Indy divide the vote.  As what happened with LePage.

      The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

      by Paleo on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:03:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cutler would only run for Governor, I think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, itskevin

        Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:42:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  sounds right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        In the 2010 governor's race LePage got 37.6%, Cutler 35.9, Mitchell 18.8, and minor candidates 6.5. Without Raye and with King I think the GOP probably has a floor around 30 and a ceiling around 40. They may come up with someone less abrasive than LePage, but 2012 will not be as good for the GOP as 2010 was.

        If the GOP can get 40% it will be difficult for either King or Pingree to get 2/3 of the remaining vote even assuming the minor candidates will be squeezed out as Pingree > Mitchell and King > Cutler.

        Cutler is not running and if you are correct that King won't run, Pingree should be in great shape as she will go into the campaign with more cred than any other potential independent and will point to the 2010 gov race to argue that a vote for the independent is a vote for the GOP.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:35:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  But Baldacci left the gov office with really bad (0+ / 0-)

      approval numbers.

      I'd like to see some polling, but I worry he could make the race a more likely GOP hold, even without an Independent.

  •  Getting Inside Snowe's Head (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, licorice114

    A couple of things that I've been wondering about from the category of "What is she thinking?"

    The first is what are the reasons behind Snowe's decision not to run?  Oh sure, I have no doubt her personal desire to retire played a significant role as she has said.  But her outgoing remarks eluding to her dissatisfaction with the further to the right direction the Republican party has been going makes me wonder if other motivations didn't come into play.  Such as a desire to inflict a little revenge on her own party.  Let's face it, her Senate Republican colleagues have pretty much publicly treated her like crap for years (probably even worse privately) for just a mere handful of votes she cast against her own party.  Combine that with the fact that she knows her leaving almost dooms Republican's chances of holding the Maine seat and with it their chances of gaining majority control of the Senate (or at least makes it a huge uphill battle), and I have to wonder if in the back of Olympia's mind there is not a little FU motivation involved in her decision.

    The second is how will she vote for the remainder of her term?  By not running she is liberated from the need for Republican campaign support, and as such should be pretty much free to vote her conscience.  How much she will cross the aisle in the next few months remains to be seen, but since her first vote after her announcement was with Dems. (Blunt amendment), I am cautiously optimistic.  

    "Some men see things as they are and ask, 'Why?' I dream of things that never were and ask, 'Why not?"

    by Doctor Who on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:27:19 AM PST

    •  Honestly . . . (4+ / 0-)

      . . . I don't think she's leaving because of "partisan rancor" at all. Were that the case, she would have left long ago. Methinks her sudden departure may have something to do with an impending lawsuit against a corporation on which her husband is chairman of the board and formerly CEO. The article is from October, but if some aspect of the case is about to make the national news, that may be the explanation.

      [http://bangordailynews.com/...]

      Either way, I'm thrilled with the timing of Snowe's announcement; as has been noted by others here, it gives the Maine GOP practically no time at all to find a candidate. And now that Kevin Raye has decided to stick to the 2nd District instead of going for the Senate, our chances of turning the seat blue have improved even further. Here's hoping Cutler and King stay out of it!

      28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

      by The Caped Composer on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:00:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP NC primary: Santorum 6 over Romney (7+ / 0-)

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:31:39 AM PST

  •  gallup pres - what's up with this (0+ / 0-)

    gallup poll - Romney 50 Obama 46

    What's happening here?

  •  WI-2 Yawn, Chad Lee formally announces (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, sapelcovits, Gpack3

    Chad Lee, the GOP sacrificial lamb against Tammy Baldwin in 2010 is back for a second try at the seat now that it is an open seat.  

    link: http://gazettextra.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:37:22 AM PST

  •  Potential MI-Gov candidate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, MetroGnome

    Tim Skubick recently mentioned Gretchen Whitmer and Jocelyn Benson as gubernatorial candidate.  Now he's adding another potential candidate to the list, former US Rep. Mark Schauer.  

    http://www.mlive.com/...

    Out of the three options Skubick has mentioned, Schauer would be my least favorite.  I like him but think Whitmer and Benson would be more progressive.  

    •  Schauer (0+ / 0-)

      I've really come to respect Schauer, as he got more liberal in a district where that didn't exactly help him, so I do appreciate his bravery.  But, I will just honestly say that both Whitmer and Benson are far better candidates for governor.  They are far more articulate, and quite frankly, far more intelligent than Schauer.  There is no "wow" factor with him, no compelling biography, which I think will be something absolutely necessary to stack up against Snyder.  Snyder is going to be seen as an comptent administrator no matter if he really is or not.  No one is going to outdo him in that regard, so there is going to need to be another factor.  Someone that can articulate an alternative vision.  Whitmer can do that, and she has an "x" factor, of sorts, if you watch her speak.

  •  I heard the name of.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    Rufus King mentioned around here in context of this election... A very likable, moderate and successful governor...I hope this will not split the vote as I would find him an attractive candidate and have voted Dem since 1968...

  •  Roll Call just tweeted that Norm Dicks is retiring (6+ / 0-)

    They don't have a link to a story yet though.

    21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:18:25 AM PST

  •  PA-Judiciary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bobby Big Wheel, Setsuna Mudo

    Looks like PA is mulling changing from elected judges to appointed judges for the Court of Appeals.  The article confuses me a bit but at least they're entertaining the idea that having judges be elected might take some of the fairness out of the judicial system.

    ironically, the expensive state supreme court race mentioned in the article (Melvin v Panella) proves that.  2 of Melvin's sisters are charged with illegally using public workers (one sister is a state Senator, i forget what the other one is) to work on Melvin's campaign. And in their original trial, the sisters submitted forged evidence so they are now going to be re-tried with additional charges.

    I wish this case got more coverage in the state, especially Philly.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:27:12 AM PST

  •  NJ Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    licorice114

    I'm old enough to recall Lautenberg's using Fenwick's age against her in '82. He's hubristic enough to run again, but is he that stupid?

  •  WA-06 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Norm Dicks (36 years in Congress) to retire.

    Seattle PI Article

    Daves Redistricting: 50 states + DC & PR w/ 2010 data. 42 states + DC w/ election data.

    by dgb on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 08:51:20 AM PST

  •  Uh oh (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    Don Payne, who recently announced he had colon cancer, had to fly home to Newark from DC.

    I have a bad feeling about this.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 09:12:09 AM PST

  •  let's get more pro-chocie women!! I'm donating to (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, askew

    Emily's  List, as and refuse to donate to the Democratic Senatorial Committee until they stop supporting anti choice candidates, and I have been telling them that when they call for money!

    •  I ended up in a fight with the guy who was calling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      to get money for the DSCC when I told him that I wanted to donate to specific candidates only. The guy would not let up.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 12:07:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  LGBT political news update (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, tietack, askew

    First, in Maryland, homophobic and transphobic Senate President Mike Miller has put his signature on the gay marriage bill that he voted against. I'm not sure if this is a meaningless formality or if it's actually indicative of a turnabout on the issue. I'm guessing the former, but hopefully someone more knowledgeable can fill me in on this.

    Also, the Maryland Board of Elections has approved petition language filed by gay marriage opponents which contains typos (really, guys? you're doing something as serious as taking away civil rights and you can't even take 2 minutes to proofread?). The bigots have until June to collect a little over 50,000 signatures, which unfortunately won't be hard.

    On the trans rights front, Baltimore County joined Baltimore City and Howard and Montgomery Counties in protecting transgender residents. A statewide trans rights protection bill received a hearing in the Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee. Ironically, in a mirror image of gay marriage, such a bill previously passed the House of Delegates with room to spare but was blocked by Sen. Pres. Miller. (Amazingly enough, even Sen. James Brochin, who voted for gay marriage, had some transphobic bile to spew.)

    Things look a little brighter in Illinois, where an anti-trans-discrimination bill passed the House Criminal Law Committee in a 5-3 vote (presumably on a party-line vote).

    In North Carolina, a panel including AG Roy Cooper and SoS Elaine Marshall (both Dems) approved an explanation of the anti-gay Amendment One that will be distributed to the media and all of the state's counties, some of which will pass it on to voters. The explanation mentions the fact that gay marriage is already banned by statute in the state. Hopefully, that will flip some votes from people who oppose gay marriage but have misgivings about constitutional bans.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 09:31:20 AM PST

    •  In Ohio, energy has exploded around this issue (0+ / 0-)

      Yesterday over 1,700 signatures were filed with the attorney general's office to get ballot language approved for petitions for a referendum to repeal the DOMA amendment and out marriage equality into our constitution. I am seeing some fretters and hand-wringers claiming we are hurting ourselves because Ohio isn't ready and we haven't done years and years of groundwork and polling and fundraising and blah blah blah. but the effort went from three grassroots guys to 1,000 volunteers in two weeks so I'm not convinced we're not ready to make a stab at it.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:55:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Arkansas D's have a chance (0+ / 0-)

    to do better in 2012 than in 2010 if Arkansas Democrats, rather than outsiders,  are allowed to talk to Arkansas voters.  

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